Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-02-19 19:09 | Report Abuse

Steven Yong,

Your purchase of telcos should be OK. Be careful of cameras.

Reasons:

With the Advent of the Motor Car at the Turn of the 20th Century - Horse drawn carriages, horse shoes & horse whips manufacturing became obsolescence. They finally ceased and most gone out of business.

With the Advent of the SMART PHONE - These Industries might be extinct one day:-

1) Alarm clock
2) Wrist watch (Only collectors items)
3) Printed Encyclopedia (Wikipedia now in use.)
4) Camera (Notion VTech - sorry lah)
5) Handheld Torch Light (My Led light on iphone(Samsung) very powerful.
6) Video camera
7) Voice recorder.
8) GPS as in Tom Tom
9) Radio
10) Printed maps (Google Map now in use.)
11) Many others. In Japan they use phone credit for payment (no need cash)

The Better buy is OPCOM. This is the future! Malaysia still has vast territories uncovered by fiber optic cable network.

I bought OK at 38 cents. Now over RM1.30. Oka drainage stuff are used widely in Highway & Township building. Just as OKA is need for Highway Physical Infra Building OPCOM is a MUST for THE INFORMATION HIGHWAY NETWORK.

Best Regards,

Calvin Singapore

Posted by sage > 2014-02-19 19:15 | Report Abuse

Confucius say when stranger give good advice... Listen.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-02-19 21:21 | Report Abuse

Calvin, well no need to be sorry about it.. cant avoid it if there's a fundamental shifts happening. A good business will have to adapt to changes that surely will happen.

I'd expected the new customer to cushion the drop in SLR abit, and for the SLR to have a gradual 10-20% drop over the coming quarters, seems like nikon and canon wants to clear out old inventory asap and replace with brand new models.

Well it's definitely clear now that notion have the excess capacity, can they get more new customers in to diversify themselves now? TRW a good step, but volume unfortunately too low... just a net increase of abt 2.5 mil contributed by TRW per Q currently..

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-02-19 21:28 | Report Abuse

at least, they are taking steps... whether right or wrong, or how fast can TRW account grow/silver up... nobody knows yet. Definitely not good for short term traders looking to make a quick buck. Guess they'll be cutting loss in the next few months of trading session.

I take a longer view on my investments.

Posted by invester > 2014-02-19 22:31 | Report Abuse

There are few more automotive players (or potential customers) for Notion in Malaysia such as Bosch and Denso.

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-02-19 22:40 | Report Abuse

只有傻仔才会长抱这支长期失败股。真他奶奶的（小宝的口头禅)不幸，自己竟然是其中一位。

Posted by speakup > 2014-02-19 22:47 | Report Abuse

Notion just reported another big loss this quarter. If u want buy HD manufacturer, try JCY.

Posted by speakup > 2014-02-19 22:48 | Report Abuse

JCY reported a big profit this quarter. Only problem is that insiders have pushed up JCY quite a lot prior to the release of this good results.

Posted by ww_guy > 2014-02-20 10:11 | Report Abuse

really stupid, should sell this counter earlier...i still hold it as i expect it will go above 0.7...now big loss and move down...compared to the last year same quarter, the loss is small, will it recover for next quarter?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-02-20 12:48 | Report Abuse

Mmm... stuck between a rock and a hard place, selling it at too low a price, and u'll just realized your losses.
Look at JCY last few months ago, ppl were screaming sell sell sell, research house TP 40 cents... to those who sold at 5x, they'll curse now.

This is just for current stock holders... and my own thoughts as holder too :(

If nothing else and notion just break even this year, notion's still well supported by their net asset per share of RM 1.1x. If you have another stock selection or better choice in this 3-6 months, by all means, sell. (but ur new stock will have the same risks too, no guarentee it'll fly)

Analyzing notion losses,
Operation loss, 3.8 mil (Will recur again if same revenue figures next Q)
Derivative loss/Forex 3.3 mil (If USD to RM is worst than 3.28 will incur more losses, of course if lower than that amount, will get some forex gains)
Finance cost 1.2 mil ( Will happen again )
Loss from associate 1.1 mil ( At current silver price, and if alcyone's turn around is successful/or as they planned, this should be a net gain next q)

Projected next Q results, worst case scenario
Same operation loss 3.8mil
Forex loss, could be higher, as it went to 3.33 in this q, but it's back to 3.29 at this point. 4.5mil
Finance cost 1.2 mil
Gain from associate 0.1 mil or put it as zero. At current silver price, if can maintain til end march, alcyone should finally breakeven or small profit due to capex still ongoing.

Insurance claim coming in?? Finally? 2 mil? Very pessimistic figures, I put.

Net loss next Q, 7 mil + tax, 7.5mil?
If worst than this... then something else is going on there, and really need to revise my outlook on it.

There's the land sale and leaseback going on, for a potential one off 60mil gain, but dont think it'll be completed by end of March to reflect in next Q?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-02-20 12:55 | Report Abuse

Stupid or not for still keeping, well, what's your reasons for buying it in the first place? Are those reasons still valid? My reasons
EPS, NAPS, and Good Management team.. (well, based on how they grew their company up from back then.. you have to give them credit)

So, EPS is down right now... is it a permanent thing? If yes, sell.
NAPS. Still good.
Management team... Disagree with their huge positions on forex hedges, to me forex is a gamble, you win some (When USD > RM is below 3.21), but you'll lose back eventually (Now), why hedge in the first place then?

Neutral on their silver investment, overpaid yes we all know that, but hey silver is still rallying, at the moment.

Posted by ww_guy > 2014-02-21 11:46 | Report Abuse

sold to cut lost at 0.635...if sell now at 0.62, will even lost more 2%...i won't look back to this counter again...bye

Posted by KY Lau > 2014-02-22 13:41 | Report Abuse

switch to jcy

Posted by speakup > 2014-02-22 14:43 | Report Abuse

switch to Ecs.
cold-eye big investor in Ecs.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-02-26 14:22 | Report Abuse

For those still holding, due to notion's big hedging position, their forex hedge itself, can be considered as a separate business unit. All in can consider notion's business to

HDD, Camera, Auto, Forex, Silver.

At the moment, Forex and Silver is heading the right way... but it's a very volatile thing, which may or may not last.

Gold price will normally trend against the USD... weak USD, higher gold price... Notion's forex performance and silver performance will rise and fall together. USD to RM exchange need to drop to 3.23 for some forex gain on next Q, and at that rate, silver maybe will hit 23-24 usd. Because of weak sales in camera, forex n silver will play a bigger role now.

Notion's 2/5 eggs is in the same basket, and both of which cant be controlled by anyone.. Mmmmm. Our fate as shareholders(short term) lies in the wind :/

I believe their next Q's profitability will depends a lot in this aspect.... very risky to say the least. USD to RM 3.23 and below, will have forex gain, and gain from associate (silver)

Posted by KY Lau > 2014-02-26 19:59 | Report Abuse

anyone is going toAGM?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-02-27 17:40 | Report Abuse

dont think anyone got appetite to go d.. hehe, but would be interested to know more from the directors.. what's their plans in regards to things right now...

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-02-27 17:50 | Report Abuse

Very quiet forum now d.... aih sad sad notion

Posted by Wayhung Khoo > 2014-02-28 00:05 | Report Abuse

the resistance for this share could be rm0.605

Posted by Lee Wehc Taik > 2014-03-01 11:00 | Report Abuse

want to go AGM but cant...working day

Posted by ladzatz > 2014-03-01 15:31 | Report Abuse

why no one talks about the issues brought upon by musang foxking???? aren't they big issues?

Posted by ladzatz > 2014-03-01 15:38 | Report Abuse

the issues stated by musang was posted on 16 feb...the price was ok/stable fr 17 to 19th feb (67 to 68 cents) ...then it now became 60.5...may be he has some influence here although many here try to avoid commenting about it..no courage...or just keep it hidden. hahaha

notion buying australian shares at premium of 66.67% (aus$0.005 compared to market price at aus $0.003) and the links stated by him showed that the price was then aus$0.001

this must be a huge loss for notionvtech

so RM0.30 is around the corner...happy hunting

Posted by ww_guy > 2014-03-04 09:24 | Report Abuse

luckily sold above 0.60....temporary goodbye to this counter

Posted by Greyson > 2014-03-08 19:19 | Report Abuse

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Posted by wannabeinvestor > 2014-03-13 14:27 | Report Abuse

what is wrong with notion? no kick at all...

Posted by Yang Tan > 2014-03-17 13:11 | Report Abuse

I am grabbing more share at the pricing,do you having same action?

Posted by Green Tea > 2014-03-18 18:10 | Report Abuse

Terrible development at Notion...http://gmmoneytree.blogspot.com/2014/03/notion-alcyone-suspended-in-autarlia.html

Posted by Green Tea > 2014-03-20 17:12 | Report Abuse

Some surprises and My take after attending the Notion AGM http://gmmoneytree.blogspot.com/2014/03/notion-10th-agm-take-away-message.html

Posted by mjwong82 > 2014-03-21 09:35 | Report Abuse

Thanks for sharing Green Tea!

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-03-21 13:12 | Report Abuse

Been staying out of spotlight for a while... but i'm still holding ;D
Yes Green Tea, I do agree that one thing I like abt notion, is their management is quite frank on their projections, and when possible I think they warned the investors ahead of a bad Q and what not.

what's the total CNC machines that they have at the moment? Assuming Q42013's harddisk division sales of 21.2mil is at 80% utilization, now they mentioned it's in full capacity (21.2*1.2) = 25.5 mill, + 100 CNC machines more allocated to it from camera. Potentially, HDD sales is at 27-30 million?

Assume camera sales is stagnant at 15.8m QoQ

Automotive +8% (based on 8% increase in car sales in europe that u can google abt) QoQ = 13.8m

Revenue = ~54-56mil
Assume all losses is as same as previous(forex, alcyone, etc) QoQ
Assume finally a low insurance claim of 3 mil.

Quarter result shld be breakeven to +3 mil in gains?
Probable?

On their forex losses.. Prior to this, in 2011 and 2012 their forex gains was actually 11 million from the hedge. 2013 -3.7 mill and as of 2014 at 3.28 (forex loss of 3.3mil) net they're still 4 million gain from forex at the moment. I think all in, their forex is a no win no lose in the end after all.

Posted by invester > 2014-04-01 16:25 | Report Abuse

Do you think the recent price up is due to the share buy back which approved in previous AGM?

Posted by Green Tea > 2014-04-01 18:16 | Report Abuse

val-Elta Forex hedging is a double edge sword indeed...The contract has another 18 month.
directors are selling warrants A and B heavily, but still holding the mother share. Waiting for the Special dividend?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-04-02 16:01 | Report Abuse

mmm better to keep low at the moment, but let's see how it goes :) cautiously optimistic. warrant A, they sold off long time ago actually, no effect to what happened in the past 6 months. The exercise price is nonsense too, and with the nearer excise date, makes sense to sell.

On WB, its still quite funny, that on the days the Ds, dispose, it was equally met with buyers at high volume too. if you follow notion-b's volume, at the rates that the directors were disposing previously, it's more than enough to tank it to 10 cent and below in a single day. Excise price of RM1, is still probable to be in the money since it have sufficient time left to mature.

dont feel like talking too much on this d, as previously... maybe you can take the flag :D

Posted by dragonking > 2014-04-20 14:27 | Report Abuse

will notion turn to profit soon,,,after selling their land.....

Posted by Green Tea > 2014-04-25 15:37 | Report Abuse

Profit not sure but dividend likely...http://gmmoneytree.blogspot.com/search/label/Notion%20Vtec

Posted by Hc Lee > 2014-04-26 15:07 | Report Abuse

Green tea: thx yr sharing

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-04-29 17:52 | Report Abuse

Thank you green tea, it's a good share...

I just like to add that there's an mistake in your post.. even though I do expect Nikon to post a flat result. Nikon's only annoucing their Q result couple weeks from now. May 13 2014 to be exact. Source:http://nikon.com/about/ir/

So, unless you came back from the future.... :)
"Yet, the fact that DSL camera market is still weak base on Nikon's latest quarter report announced few days ago. "

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-04-29 17:54 | Report Abuse

Or maybe you meant few weeks/months?

Posted by Green Tea > 2014-05-15 20:17 | Report Abuse

sorry, Val-Elta, you are right. I made a mistake, It should b "few months" ago (Nikon feb report). Confused as i was reading the Canon report which was release on 24 april, same day I posted the article...

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-05-15 23:22 | Report Abuse

Quarter result's out, 7 mill loss, camera sales dropped a further 5 million to 10million, camera sales just drove off the cliff, in this last 2 Q.

Increase in HDD and neutral in automotive, + a bit of forex gain...

What to make of it, and if you're already in the boat (like i am)

ENTERPRISE HDD is gaining strength, VS 2013's 4Qs, HDD sales increases from Q to Q over the year, 2nd Q's 2014 is already higher than 4th Q 2013. If the same season sales pattern persist, sales still should have some more room to grow, as 4th Q is the strongest..

CAMERA
It can't get any worst realistically now can it?

1st Q 2013 sales, 22mil, vs 1st Q 2014 15 million. (32% drop YoY)
2nd Q 2013 sales, 20mil, vs 2nd Q 2014 10 million (50% drop YoY)

The level of drop here, is significantly more than Nikon's sales drop. Unless Nikon has a significant stockpile, correction should stop after 6 months of stock clearances. Also, Nikon's projected YoY sales vs 2014 is an 8% drop in sales. Which is a far cry from the YoY % drop we're seeing here with Notion of abt 40%. Taking a 8% drop from Notion's 2013 sales to match Nikon's projection, can we see camera sales normalize back to ~18-19m per quarter for the final 2 Qs?

AUTOMOTIVE
Seasonally, vs 2013's each Quarter reviews, the 2nd Q 2014 sales have already surpassed the 4th Q of 2013, again if similar seasonal sales pattern is projected, still room for auto sales growth for the next 2 Q.

SILVER
Not good... expect another 1 mil loss, potentially 1 mil write off per Q until all invested amount is written off, to consider as the worst case scenario.. silver price is not too bad, but something else is wrong with alcyone management... Really like to know more from Thoo Chow Fah on what's happening there.

FOREX
Good news at least here. As of now, USD to RM of 3.23, reliazed forex gain for the past 1.5 month of next Q's result already locked in. Surprising strength of RM since, most will probably expect RM to weaken further as QE tapering continues... Close of 3.23-3.20 at end of June's gonna be great.

OIL and GAS?
Finally, after the announcement of venturing into O&G, like 1 and half years ago by Notion, there's a mention of it in this Q's results. Seems to be positive, but not sure how much that will bring in terms of sales.

+20% SALES??
Notion management projects an increase of 20% sales in 2nd Half, where and how will these 20% come from? Probable or are they just blowing water?

Let's see where we can get 53-55m from.
Worst case scenario
HDD - 22m = Assuming no significant increase QoQ.
Camera - 18m = From 2013's lowest Q sales of 20m, + the already huge drop in the 1st two Q of 2014. Shld be able to at least normalize back to 18million? Conservative figure?
Automotive - 12m = Again assuming no significant changes
Silver - (1m)

Probable scenario?
HDD - 24m
Camera - 20m (This is equal to 2013's lowest Q sales for camera)
Auto - 14m
Silver - (1m)

Optimistic scenario
HDD - 24m
Camera - 23m
Auto - 15m
Oil & Gas - 1m?
Silver - (1m)

MANAGEMENT PERFORMANCE?
How did they react to the drop in sales from Camera/HDD as their business goes along....
They managed to get TRW in abt 3 quarters ago. But it's been pretty quiet after that. Didn't managed to see a big growth in automotive sales from TRW's entrance unfortunately.

Oil & Gas, some small update on this, after being silent/bad news on this for the past 1 year. Hopefully, we'll see actual sales in the next Q.

Silver. Mmm, an unsuccessful attempt at diversification. I was optimistic on that initially, and was expecting alcyone to at least breakeven. But, don't know why they have a hard time to extract the silver out, they have some fundamental issues at their leaching pads... not gonna be easy to solve.


Were they aware of the significant camera sales drop that happened subsequently? And now that it's beyond reasonable doubts that camera division is in trouble, how are they going to react to this?

Management rpt card, so so at the moment.. good & bad decisions.

All in.
Expecting a wave of selling in the next couple weeks, unless there's some more Bursa announcements coming up in regards to dividend/new customer. Conclusion? Inconclusive, trader in me ask to sell & buyback, investor in me, sees positive fundamental values still intact. NAPS, great amount of CNC machines that can roll out the $ if can be utilized. Expect another JCY like drop, before share price recovering strongly as the Q results improves.

Posted by Yang Tan > 2014-05-20 14:04 | Report Abuse

good analysis Val-Elta

Posted by undukngadau > 2014-06-06 15:46 | Report Abuse

Many Thanks Val-Elta

Posted by jackylnw49 > 2014-06-11 15:32 | Report Abuse

standstill at 0.55~0.555 so long already..bottom line to drop?

Posted by undukngadau > 2014-06-23 10:48 | Report Abuse

I'm just wondering on: http://online.wsj.com/articles/nikon-shifts-focus-to-health-as-camera-sales-flag-1403006577

Posted by steveooikp > 2014-06-27 16:10 | Report Abuse

last quarter lost money leh... but NTA... 1.20... now only 55 sens... cheap or expensive>

Posted by no_idea > 2014-06-28 17:07 | Report Abuse

Hope tis quarter can back to trend.. still holding

Posted by no_idea > 2014-06-28 17:08 | Report Abuse

But Nikon not doing good tis few quarter..

Posted by all888 > 2014-06-30 21:32 | Report Abuse

What goes down must come up also

Posted by Kim Yap Lau > 2014-06-30 22:54 | Report Abuse

volume come today

Posted by invester > 2014-07-01 10:30 | Report Abuse

maybe the special dividend is on the way? Notion did mentioned before that they are going to give special dividend