Posted by ran777 > 2014-04-11 19:35 | Report Abuse

So it confirmed that chan is selling hopeful to chew. May what madiba predicts may come true. Anyhow thks madiba for your comments today.how is the weather in sanghai?

Posted by leslieroycarter > 2014-04-11 20:20 | Report Abuse

see this ....worrisome

Name :Chew Chee Seng

Date :10/4/2014

Price :RM0.29

No of shares:15,000,000


%(3.73%)



Total no of shares:126,504,838


% (31.42%) and coming to the threshold 32%!!!!!!! mandatory take -over ?

Posted by ran777 > 2014-04-11 23:18 | Report Abuse

But how certain that Chew picked out from chan?

Posted by madiba > 2014-04-12 00:14 | Report Abuse

Looking at the filings late friday by Mr Chan, it is a clear confirmation Mr Chew bought from Mr Chan's disposal as the quantity ie 15 million and the price is exactly the same ie RM 0.29 sen.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1592421
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1591485

That equation means Mr Chew did not buy from the market or Dato Dahlan which is a relief for reasons stated in my earlier analysis before Mr Chan did his filings.

Correspondingly this means the run up this week to 32 sens closing with a high of 34 sens was not fuelled by Mr Chew's buying in the market which is excellent news because that means some other group is buying loads but layered which I suspect is Dato Dahlan's men.

All these are good news. What is interesting now is that we actually know the support buying levels for the two big guys ie 29 sens for Mr Chew and 30 sens for Dato Dahlan looking at their past filings. So expect strong support at these levels moving forward with a target of around 35-38 sens when overseas markets stabilizes and the contra players are absorbed on Monday. A closing above 33 sens will trigger another wave of buying I trust.

32 sens Buy: Stop loss 30 sens. Upside 38 sens.
Risk to reward ratio 2:6. Expected return 18%.
Holding period 2 weeks.

Posted by pujut > 2014-04-12 00:28 | Report Abuse

Thanks madiba....really appreciate it

Posted by wee888 > 2014-04-12 06:14 | Report Abuse

Terima kasih Madiba, betul-betul menghargai analisa anda yang menyakinkan kita terhadap pembelian kaunter ini. Sekali lagi ribuan terima kasih.

Posted by peace > 2014-04-12 07:27 | Report Abuse

Thanks madiba..!

Posted by zmgoh > 2014-04-12 08:16 | Report Abuse

Thanks Madiba. Appreciate your advice

Posted by ran777 > 2014-04-12 09:53 | Report Abuse

Thank you, Madiba.

Posted by Hotrod > 2014-04-12 12:36 | Report Abuse

Whats the tp for this stock ?

Posted by wee888 > 2014-04-12 12:59 | Report Abuse

Read Madiba posting!!!

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-12 13:28 | Report Abuse

madiba - excellent analyses.

On my end, I think that the majority shareholder (Chew) sold the warrants to firstly, finance his mother share purchase and secondly, to release to interested parties the WA as a trading block.

If you were monitoring the WA last week during the volume and price spike, you would have seen very determined buying ie someone was trying to stay ahead of retail buying.

So, it is very likely that the WA will continue to outpace the mother share when the stock starts moving in the next two weeks.

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-12 13:30 | Report Abuse

Of course, looking at the comments posted by forumners in this thread, I think that most of us here are holding the mother share, haha!!

Posted by pzul > 2014-04-12 14:22 | Report Abuse

Hehehe...

Posted by zmgoh > 2014-04-12 15:40 | Report Abuse

Thanks gerry188.. im one of the WA holder..

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-12 16:24 | Report Abuse

Continuous selling by the substantial shareholder (Chan) can depress the mother share price, so I think Chew made the correct move by taking the shares off Chan in a married deal.

The mother share leads and if it does not move up, neither can the WA

Posted by madiba > 2014-04-12 17:45 | Report Abuse

Well said gerry188. Assuming the base case scenario that Mpay remains constant at 32 sens until April 2015, the warrants pricing will fall to around 12 sen even if the mother remains flat over time. This time value of 11.5 sens (23.5 + 20 sen cash conversion- mother share 32 sen) will devalue as it gets nearer to expiry date next year.

No doubt great instruments to tap into in a raging bull market given its smaller paid up and leverage but terrible instruments to hold when the market turns unexpectedly. If we project Mpay to be at 38 sen by end month (up 19%) then the theorectical value of Mpay-W should be around 30 sen (+28%). But on the other hand if Mpay ends up at 25 sen (-22%) over time, the warrant will worth only 5 sen ( down a whopping -78%) . If you have a need and stomach for speed go for for it but as for me I want to get home safely with spare change even if things break down. Anyway the boss man Mr Chew has already clearly indicated his stance ie sell the warrant and buy the mother; do you want to go against that?

Mpay-W is like your sexy new girlfriend who gives you the thrills but she will surely make you dead broke if you are not careful. Its cloudy here in Pudong Shanghai temperature a cool 16 C. Have a nice evening and remember to do your zakat/give to the needy with your gains from Mpay.

Posted by pzul > 2014-04-12 17:58 | Report Abuse

I also have the same feeling.. lasf friday i saw mother n son have a gap in move..as -wa holder we should know when to buy n when to sell..not like mother share will remain strong.. im not good with FA..thats why i need information n tips from all friends here.. thanks a lot to all have give the opinion here..

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-12 18:15 | Report Abuse

madiba - great to hear from you in Shanghai.

I would think that the mother share should move up to the 1st TP of 38.5sen within this month - and perhaps even the 2nd TP of 45 to 50sen in May - as it is very much technically in a strong Stage 2 wave. So, the WA does give those retailers with a strong heart the opportunity to leverage and realise a better gain. After all, if we expect the price to trade at 32sen throughout, then there is no longer any reason to hold a position in this counter.

Your advice for caution is however noted. All we will need to do from here is to monitor the mother share's price and if we feel it will be a strong move up, trading the WA would then make sense.

I normally take a base position in the mother and trade the warrants in selected counters. Where counters are so-called "gorenged", the operators make the real money in the warrants. Hard to see why Chew would choose to sell the WA at a cheaper price when the mother share is still rallying as the WA would obviously move in lockstep but with better leverage. Unless, as I speculated, for other "reasons".

As usual, this is not a buy or sell call but just part of a healthy ongoing discussion.

Posted by DreamM > 2014-04-12 18:44 | Report Abuse

If Trs project Mpay get it every years this company will gain at least 50 million a years if I m not counting wrong so this counter still can buy before the price reach above 50 cents... This just my opinion....

Posted by ImCK > 2014-04-12 18:51 | Report Abuse

Dream comfirm mpay can get it ?

Posted by DreamM > 2014-04-12 19:13 | Report Abuse

As I know had 4 company tender this project but look at the rumors news Mpay chance more bigger than other cause JV wt the Swiss company and this company expert in doing tis business.... Sometimes share market like gambling I sell all the Iris share to buy Mpay when the price is 0.265-.0.275 and my TP is 0.55 on this counter if the Trs project fall in Mpay hand.... Iris also wan get tis project too but looks like Iris will fail to get it.... But we still need the more news to confirm it.... Somemore had rumors wil up to rm1 if get this project but I dun believe too much just set a own TP price for self... Hit my TP And sell it to take cash.... Old man like me scare a bit wt the rumors and dun wan get heart attack..... Hehehe

Posted by wee888 > 2014-04-12 19:19 | Report Abuse

Remember Mpay has only 50% stake in the company that bids for the project.

Posted by DreamM > 2014-04-12 19:28 | Report Abuse

That's not important , the important things is who behind Dato dahlan and if u know it u wil know Mpay get Trs project or not.... Tis only my opinion

Posted by wee888 > 2014-04-12 20:19 | Report Abuse

I think the writing is on the wall. Why did Dato buy additional shares at ard .30?
12/04/2014 19:34

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-12 22:01 | Report Abuse

Good observation wee888. Get ready for the real rally soon!!!

Posted by wee888 > 2014-04-12 22:05 | Report Abuse

on your mark, get set, goooooooooo .....

Posted by nicermannson > 2014-04-12 22:06 | Report Abuse

My Pay Day

Posted by wcs0201 > 2014-04-13 09:45 | Report Abuse

continue trading at the upper range of the bullish run, very high probability it will breakout again :)

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-13 10:49 | Report Abuse

wcs0201 - Looks very much like a bullish continuation pattern. We will know on Monday!!

Posted by Siva68 > 2014-04-13 10:58 | Report Abuse

ran777, how are you my friend, remember from the censof era. Will be @ Chinesetea, asamlaksa, tewnama blog.

Sorry to the others for posting this, finding for a lost friend.

Posted by edwin8910 > 2014-04-13 18:40 | Report Abuse

Any project did Mpay got recently? What makes this share will go north ? :)

Posted by wee888 > 2014-04-13 20:28 | Report Abuse

in anticipation of successful bid

Posted by 4u2c > 2014-04-13 21:53 | Report Abuse

If they get it.Will they share spike again ?

Posted by madiba > 2014-04-14 10:01 | Report Abuse

10 am holding well at 32-32.5 sen. For those buying or trading today I Madiba salute you for your foresight. Support 31-32 sen. Resistance 33 sen. Once broken next resistance 35 sen.

Have a great day everyone!

Posted by wee888 > 2014-04-14 10:11 | Report Abuse

I bgt some at 0.315 due 2moro. Can make some contra gain for a cup of Starbuck coffee, but on second thought, hold!!!

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-14 10:15 | Report Abuse

madiba - good morning and thanks for the update.

Posted by zmgoh > 2014-04-14 10:55 | Report Abuse

Greetings madiba.. thanks

Posted by leslieroycarter > 2014-04-14 10:58 | Report Abuse

closed 31.5-32 cts level with reduced volume showed that there are strong support at these levels. So the chance to fall below 25.5-26 cts seems very remote .

Posted by pzul > 2014-04-14 11:00 | Report Abuse

wee88.. good for u.. i want teh tarik.. soon unload..

Posted by wee888 > 2014-04-14 11:06 | Report Abuse

tks. I'm looking for hi-tea which is much more expensive than Starbuck coffee!!!!

Posted by zmgoh > 2014-04-14 12:31 | Report Abuse

hi leslie.. seldom see you supporting this 'penny' stock.. but welcome back..

Posted by elp25 > 2014-04-14 13:14 | Report Abuse

i prefer ur negative comment.. seriously

Posted by pputeh > 2014-04-14 13:25 | Report Abuse

Madiba: Am new at this blog. Have been following yr thread for a few days since last wk. Decided to go in tday at 32. Will hold for long, maybe a year & see the result. sink or swim. Anyway thanks madiba for yr great & well thought of insight & comments

Posted by tsk123 > 2014-04-14 13:34 | Report Abuse

Welcome pputeh...

Posted by ran777 > 2014-04-14 13:40 | Report Abuse

Hi Siva, welcome to this forum. A potential stock based on Trs project award.I am here bcos of a well renowned forumer MADIBA. I took his advise and have made some money in this stock. Not too late. Pls read through his thread and you will understand. All that madiba have commented has happened. So wish u all the best. Thks

Posted by rex23 > 2014-04-14 14:25 | Report Abuse

Today most sapu @ 32.5 cts & will getting up......

Posted by peiyee > 2014-04-14 16:17 | Report Abuse

institutions are buying...

Posted by insearch85 > 2014-04-14 16:19 | Report Abuse

peiyee...you may be referring to the wrong counter...

Posted by Siva68 > 2014-04-14 17:27 | Report Abuse

Thanks ran777. Will definitely look up on this counter.