Posted by GS > 2023-03-23 16:35 | Report Abuse

such world class listed company, i wonder why no fund is buying ?

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/660356

Posted by Sardin > 2023-03-23 16:59 | Report Abuse

Hi Ooihk, because I like to interact with other bright investors and get their thoughts too. And I think this is one of the many purposes to have this forum.

Posted by observatory > 2023-03-24 00:45 | Report Abuse

@GS, many funds own UP. EPF, KWAP, ASM, Aberdeen ... Perhaps they don't actively trade, at least not in large volume. Maybe due to liquidity constraint.

Posted by observatory > 2023-03-24 00:50 | Report Abuse

@Sardin, they produce 6 to 8 million coconuts a month. So <100m a year.
I don't know their ASP. But I can get RM3 coconut from the roadside. Wholesale price should be much lower.
Multiply the two you get a ballpark figure. Unless UP coconuts are very different from the roadside coconuts, I guess revenue is less than 10% of FY22 revenue at RM2.5b.
Besides, if not mistaken, UP will have to list coconut plantation as a separate segment from plantation segment in the Segmental Information if revenue exceeds 10%.
Actually I also have a coconut question. Why is production output stagnant or even decline?

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-03-24 10:06 | Report Abuse

They also faced worker shortage for the last two year, they may use
some of the coconut plantation's worker to support the palm operation.
This might be one the reason why coconut output is declining.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-03-24 10:07 | Report Abuse

Hi Observatory, cant expect production output increase because the matured planted area of coconut slightly reduced. Total planted area however remains the same.

Posted by Pinky > 2023-03-24 10:18 | Report Abuse

I think they just plant the coconut to make full use of its land

Posted by Sardin > 2023-03-24 18:40 | Report Abuse

In UTDPLT how many Ha of matured palm oil a worker could cover?

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-03-24 18:45 | Report Abuse

Please read the AGM meeting minutes. What happen to ppl nowaday. Just want everything handed to them in a silver platter. Haiz...

Posted by Sardin > 2023-03-27 00:21 | Report Abuse

Actually I did read the minute before I posted my question. So please don't simply comment. Not only that, I did attend the AGM and asked a few questions.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-03-27 00:22 | Report Abuse

So you should instead appreciate that when you read the minute, if you really did read it.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-03-27 10:33 | Report Abuse

Opps, my bad, maybe it's mention in year 2021. The 2021 AGM meeting minutes is not shown in website. You can write to them and ask. I attended the both AGM in 2021 n 2022. In one of the meeting the CEO did mention about it. Nation average is 8 ha/worker, UP is 12ha.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-03-27 10:37 | Report Abuse

Also, their coconut price selling price is mention in all the AR except year 2022 is being left out or maybe misprint.

Posted by GS > 2023-03-27 10:44 | Report Abuse

Online Questions 3

https://unitedplantations.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Minutes-of-AGM-22-April-2021-.pdf

Posted by Sardin > 2023-03-27 12:19 | Report Abuse

Hi Ooi & GS, thanks for the info. Then here are my findings/question:
1. Sime Darby said they now 1 worker for 15 Ha and want to push up to 17 Ha. Quite unbelievable as they are not so profitable. https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/658064
2. If we sum up the number of guest worker in Malaysia and PTSSS (3231 + 1151 = 4382) divide by matured planted area for both palm oil and coconut plantation (42789 + 3847 = 46636 Ha) give us 9.4 Ha, which is less than 12 Ha. That means, coconut plantation is more labour intensive than palm oil plantation.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-03-27 12:30 | Report Abuse

Hi Pinky, I think probably because initially the profitability of palm oil plantation is higher than coconut plantation and it takes time to switch more back to coconut and the newly planted area should be close to the existing estate in order to be cost effective. Also, if coconut requires more labour it also discourage the company to do so when in the past years facing labour shortage.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-03-27 12:38 | Report Abuse

Hi Ooi, ya they missed out coconut selling price for 2022. I tried to ask a local planter here they say wholesale price is RM 1.50 so probably the same or higher for UTDPLT as the quality might be higher and more bargaining power as a much bigger supplier. Of course I could write to them but I don't think they bother to answer because I tried to ask other questions before but received no reply. Maybe I didn't buy much enough of the shares. :)

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-03-27 17:51 | Report Abuse

Sardin, I wrote to them twice, if memory serve me right, it's the commercial dir who replied. response very fast..
Regarding ha/worker, there are workers in R&D n palm oil mill too.
No need to calculate yourself. the figure given during AGM should be reliable.
They are not like Sime Darby, dare not even provide yield info in their AR. Can
you believe these guys.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-03-27 17:57 | Report Abuse

UP sold coconut at 1.24 in 2021, so 1.5 is reasonable. Most probably the soil is
not suitable to for palm oil, that's why coconut is planted.
When West coast highway start operation, the value of Pantai Remis coconut
plantation will skyrocket.

Posted by Diamond7 > 2023-03-30 20:17 | Report Abuse

Hopefully shoot up to 17.50

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-03-30 20:31 | Report Abuse

Opps, sorry, my mistake. Pantai Remis is oil palm plantation!

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-03-31 11:41 | Report Abuse

Fertilizer price is in a downtrend beginning of this year. Hopefully it will have reduce the cost of production significantly in the later part of the year

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-03 15:47 | Report Abuse

Normally the share price reflects the future stock value rather than current value. While fertiliser price is in down trend, in short-term the fertiliser cost is not going down immediately because large plantation usually buy furtiliser via contract inked months if not a year earlier. Plus, the FCPO May 2024 has gone down to 3500++. Another cost, which is labour cost, unlike fertliser cost, will only go up and never come down. So future CPO price drop and labour cost increase may outweigh the fertiliser cost reduction. That's the risk of buying at current share price. Yes, we can get good dividend this year and maybe early next year too but what's next?

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-03 16:12 | Report Abuse

Next will be the Tanarata oil palm estate which they bought in 2019

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-03 16:13 | Report Abuse

Should start to contribute next year.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-03 18:08 | Report Abuse

It takes 7 years for the newly planted trees to reach prime age. Central Banks in many countries including Malaysia will continue to raise interest rate. When interest rate goes up, cosy to hold inventories will be higher. This will discourage the cooking oil companies to keep stock in their warehouse, meaning they will delay the purchase, weakening short-term demand / selling price. Big consumers like Bangladesh, Pakistan are facing economy problem and this may reduce their purchasing power too. So there might be further down side to the 3500++ RM/Mt mentioned above.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-03 20:12 | Report Abuse

Then you better sell. I'm here for stable dividend only. Bought few years ago.
Keep in fridge. Of course I wouldn't buy it now.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-03 20:24 | Report Abuse

Buy or sell decision on a specific price should be based on many factor including one's portfolio and risk profile etc, etc, etc... It could be good for one person but bad for another. What we are discussing here is just all essential information and phenomenon observed, regardless whether or not it is a positive or negative to the share price. Individual investor should further analyse what is the best for them. I believe most of the investors prefer to have all the info or as much info as possible regardless of what decision they are going to make.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-03 20:28 | Report Abuse

Dividend would not and will never be stable, because earning will be highly dependent on commodity price and cost which all of these are variables. What has been stable was the generosity of the board of directors and the major shareholder, I think. But however generous they are, still, what the shareholder is possible to reap still depends on those variables.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-03 21:49 | Report Abuse

Technically also, the force going north has been loosing steam. It has tested the peak 3 times but couldn't get through. In a battle, if you charge 3 times and cannot break through enemy's line, you'd get exhausted and facing the difficulty to hold the line when the enemy charge back.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-03 21:51 | Report Abuse

I could be wrong, so does the technical signal. We are just here to share facts and opinion base on facts.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-03 23:31 | Report Abuse

Good, if price drop below 12.5, I may consider slowly picking up some.
Please check your facts, look at their dividend in 2019, 2008 n 2009, then only talk.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-04 09:20 | Report Abuse

From 2014 to 2019, it started with a big drop of dividend in 2015 and then basically in a down trend till 2019. That's why I say dividend cannot be consistent and it depends on the earning. Dividend payout rate can be consistent as it has to adhere to the dividend policy but the amount is subject to change depends on earnings. I think this is a basic that we do not need to argue. And I think people are least interested in who pick up a stock at x price. At any price, there will be a buyer and seller, and ikan bilis like you and me is not going to be able to distort the volume. Unless you are big guy like EPF or a fund manager then only people are interested. However, fund manager doesn't talk like that.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-04 11:03 | Report Abuse

Your investment horizon, needs, risk appetite are diff from mine.
I know its a cyclical stock when I invested in UP. As long as I'm ok with
the dividend paid and yield during down cycle, it fine for me. Not many can
pay a decent dividend during down cycle. That's to me is stable.

Posted by Pinky > 2023-04-04 11:38 | Report Abuse

Remember when many were cursing UP during CPO bull run? Cos UP sold its palm oil forward.

Now when CPO prices stagnant, you guys will be singing UP's name.

Overall, UP won't disappoint if you hold long term.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-04 11:55 | Report Abuse

2014 payout ratio is 1.23, that's UP paying their shareholders
the extra cash which they don't need.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-04 12:21 | Report Abuse

Hi Pinky, yes I recalled that. That was the best time to buy compares to now. It is when market get "shocked", "ambushed" (at fair bit of shareholders felt so) without being able to see one year ahead. Similar thing happened to FPI in the last quarter. You wanna make big profit, you gotta have guts during these "crisis" time (when there is no crisis but looks like there is a crisis). If we want to maximize our profit we should not just know how we think but also how other people think.

Posted by Pinky > 2023-04-04 13:25 | Report Abuse

@ooihk899 cos UP is so cash rich they can afford to dig into past retained profits to pay higher dividend payout ratio %

Posted by Pinky > 2023-04-04 13:27 | Report Abuse

@Sardin I was also one of the "shocked" ones, I even reduced a bit my UP shareholding back then hahaha

Luckily I bought back in to restore my original holding soon after

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-04 14:41 | Report Abuse

Pinky, I was shocked too. I wrote to the management.
After I received their explanation, I decided not to sell.
I add a little bit with partial of the dividend I received.

Posted by dam82 > 2023-04-05 09:06 | Report Abuse

don't worry pick up more afte ex date this year .. lets observe the future is bright for UP ..

Posted by Abrahmi > 2023-04-08 11:52 | Report Abuse

At this price 16.40 a divident of rm 1 is it still worth a buy?

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-10 09:39 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/657471

Posted by Ahlian > 2023-04-10 10:33 | Report Abuse

Sardin，You can SELL. Later buy back.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-10 11:19 | Report Abuse

Everyone SELL now!!!!! Buyback in 2027!!!!!!!

Posted by Prosper05 > 2023-04-10 12:25 | Report Abuse

Wow not bad can predict 4 years ahead.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-10 12:31 | Report Abuse

Please read the link posted by Sardin lo. Then only comment ma.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-10 16:34 | Report Abuse

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-state-bets-big-oil-palm-cut-19-billion-vegoil-imports-2022-08-03/

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-10 16:39 | Report Abuse

$19 bil means almost half of the imported volume of year 2022. India has the largest arrable land in the world. 50% of their land is arable.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-10 16:40 | Report Abuse

I think the above 2 news has to be read together. If you just read one source, you may not understand.