Posted by Ahlian > 2023-04-28 09:53 | Report Abuse

Bro, Qtr 1 is normally rest time for UNITED Plantation. Tree also need resting period. The ramp will kick in 3rd and final quater.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-28 14:31 | Report Abuse

Maybe some of you may be interested to know:
1. Production - the production rate normally "U-turn" and accelerate in the month of Mar or Apr. This pattern occured consistently every year and can be easily checked through historical monthly production data.
2. 2023 Q1 CPO selling price of RM 3,668 / MT is expected to be the lowest in year 2023. Much of these were contracted at RM 3,470 / MT back in year 2021, pulling down the average selling price in current quarter. The average selling price in 2023 Q2 is estimated to be considerably higher, at RM 3,812 / MT. This will further increase in 2H of 2023.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-28 14:41 | Report Abuse

And I think after the "great inflation era", it is not realistic to expect CPO to go down with meaningful trading volume at prices below RM 3,500 / MT. That is because at any price lower than that it will knock out new competitors and lots of small planters because production cost has been really expensive. This means that RM 3,500 / MT is already a very competitive price. I came to this conclusion after months of collecting data and research. If any analyst tell you the CPO price may go down to RM 2k++ based on the variation of movement of commodity price chart, that's plain bullsh*t.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-28 14:54 | Report Abuse

For specific reason I was not able to attend the AGM yesterday. Is anyone happy to share what's been going on in the AGM?

Posted by observatory > 2023-04-28 17:04 | Report Abuse

This is the historical data for own CPO production from Jan to Mar:
2023: 53,888 MT (-7% YoY)
2022: 57,866 MT (-1% YoY)
2021: 58,217 MT (-2% YoY)
2020: 59,680 MT

The data shows a steep fall in 1Q23 production output. This is not due to seasonality.

The management has provided the explanation
“… excessive rainfall and flooding experienced during the last 4 months of 2022 and spilling over into the first 3 months of 2023 have resulted in overall palm growth being stressed thereby reducing production very significantly during the first quarter”

Posted by observatory > 2023-04-28 17:08 | Report Abuse

Since the excessive rainfall affects other companies, the shortfall in 1Q output has been compensated by higher prices.
“This has resulted in a sudden spot month shortage of CPO contributing to a significant inverse market with spot prices reaching above RM4000/MT. This temporary market shortage due to the sudden lower production is expected to reverse from May onwards as production is expected to increase again. “

However, when output recovers in 2Q, spot price may come under pressure.

Posted by observatory > 2023-04-28 17:12 | Report Abuse

CPO prices depend on many other factors besides palm oil production output. If other edible oils remain weak, CPO price cannot go much higher.
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/664033

Posted by moven00 > 2023-04-28 17:43 | Report Abuse

First time arrived at yesterday AGM. So many veteran & retiree. No idea about any Fund Manager or representatives. Got one Minority Shareholdr representative asking question. Once you enter the hall you really can feel the UP management sincerity who want to create value for their shareholders. You really know that you’re investing your money in the safe hand of a trustworthy group of people in UP.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-28 18:15 | Report Abuse

moven00, Is it possible to share more on the Q&A session?

Posted by moven00 > 2023-04-28 22:01 | Report Abuse

@ ooihk899,
1. Management say give some time for Tanah Rata acquisition to start contribute. It takes time, no shortcut.
2. One of the management people also corrected the accounting term which makes shareholders question why the depletion asset will be a total lost. In layman term @ hahaha. People like understand as asset that is old will be sold off to regain back some money.
3. 2 senior management people resigning after the AGM. It’s own their own decision. Mr Duo and Mr Diamond.
4. There is no further acquisition for the time being, but UP is ever ready to acquire whenever there is opportunity or bargain.
4. Basically all shareholders are happy and all resolution were passed without much fuss. 100% esp for the dividend payout resolution.

Got one guy who travel all the way from Malacca and he ask some very good question but unfortunately I didn’t pay much attention. Hahaha. Old man and lay person like me, easily distracted and lazy.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-28 22:07 | Report Abuse

Hi Observatory, it is both seasonality and more rain Q1 this year. The pattern I mentioned can be seen more obviously by m-o-m. You will find every year there is a sharp output recovery m-o-m. It normally happen around Mar +/- one month. This year it seems to happen in Mar-Apr. Let's see the crop output for Apr which is to be announced around 10th of May to verify.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-28 22:15 | Report Abuse

Hi Mooven, out of my curiosity, may I ask you what was the door gift? :)

Posted by moven00 > 2023-04-28 22:22 | Report Abuse

@ Sardin,
1 Bottle of Vegetable Oil, 400gram fruit cakes & 1 box of Butter Cookies

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-28 23:06 | Report Abuse

Wow, nice treat.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-29 10:19 | Report Abuse

moven00, thanks for the info.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-29 19:11 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/664904

Posted by dam82 > 2023-05-03 16:13 | Report Abuse

very strong even after ex date ermmmmmm ....will patiently

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-05-03 16:25 | Report Abuse

I'll wait until dividend received, eat lobster first, then only decide.

Posted by Diamond7 > 2023-05-04 09:08 | Report Abuse

After ex dividend, still strong!
Yes
Eat your lobsters first. Then decide!
I sell half, keep half. Down I buy back

Posted by stockraider > 2023-05-04 09:23 | Report Abuse

Div payout Rm 1.20 per share....veli veli good mah!

Posted by LossAversion > 2023-05-04 10:15 | Report Abuse

My best stock besides Maybank, Received dividends, sell half to realise cap gains. Buy back at low later, wait for next dividend again in september/december.

Posted by hw0706 > 2023-05-04 19:50 | Report Abuse

wilmar also down..

Posted by dam82 > 2023-05-08 20:52 | Report Abuse

Tak boleh turun sikit ke ….

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-05-08 22:34 | Report Abuse

Patience bro! Just ex ma, go for vacation first.

Posted by Ahlian > 2023-05-09 09:49 | Report Abuse

There's chances to go higher this week, hopefully the long-term rally can continue and sustainable.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-05-09 10:53 | Report Abuse

The answer is in tomorrow night.

Posted by goldenhope > 2023-05-10 15:38 | Report Abuse

Break RM16

Posted by Kensington > 2023-05-10 15:54 | Report Abuse

I hope the rebound from its low of 15.20 on 2 May 2023 could be sustained.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-05-10 17:20 | Report Abuse

dam82, if you're lucky, you might be able to buy back this week.
Production drop by more than 10%.

Posted by dam82 > 2023-05-10 18:44 | Report Abuse

nah willing to wait .. patient is important should not rush ... lets see where the price heading for now ... for me the motivation to buy tanah rata since that yet to be factored in for future earning .. if they can sustain the divident even during lower CPO when tanah rata factored in it should be amazing ... will wait for now

Posted by Ahlian > 2023-05-10 19:18 | Report Abuse

Base on moven00 sharing, the management has say, everything needs time to materialize. As next year contribution will not be so significantly contribute to its sales. If the CPO Can sustain at level 3500 will be good for dividend.

Posted by dam82 > 2023-05-10 19:41 | Report Abuse

correct thats why need to buy with the right price so that can keep long term ... lets patient wait

Posted by Abrahmi > 2023-05-10 19:43 | Report Abuse

Best managed company
Look after workers
Ethical -

Posted by Sardin > 2023-05-12 12:09 | Report Abuse

Bullish. Price is heading towards RM 17.00.

Posted by dam82 > 2023-05-17 15:44 | Report Abuse

ang pau dah masuk ....

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-05-17 15:54 | Report Abuse

Hahaha. Now front row seat watch show.

Posted by KClow > 2023-05-17 16:13 | Report Abuse

Lol thought all the up supporters left alteady looks like all enjoying the divi lol

Posted by KClow > 2023-05-17 16:14 | Report Abuse

What show u watching?

Posted by KClow > 2023-05-17 16:15 | Report Abuse

This is not anypow. Its divi. The divi minus the share price before ex. So its just ur money into ur account.

Posted by KClow > 2023-05-17 16:15 | Report Abuse

16.06 plus 1 is 17.06 is the price now

Posted by KClow > 2023-05-17 16:16 | Report Abuse

Very very high can go higher?till where?

Posted by KClow > 2023-05-17 16:19 | Report Abuse

Epf started buying bak after ex. Maybe i should put divi back in

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-05-17 16:57 | Report Abuse

Watch 'goreng' show ma. See how high it can go b4 EPF sell again.
By the way I'm not UP supporter. I'm UP shareholder. Hahaha.

Posted by KClow > 2023-05-17 17:01 | Report Abuse

Up today all time high.17.10
Congrats to the danes oramg putih denmark.

Posted by KClow > 2023-05-17 17:02 | Report Abuse

I doubt epf wil.sell.much.cos their holding all time low already

Posted by dam82 > 2023-05-18 11:32 | Report Abuse

It depends how one want to put it in the words for me it’s angpau hahah

Posted by KClow > 2023-05-19 08:56 | Report Abuse

Wrong word.
Its not angpow if it goes from left pokket to right pocket.
Its ur money from profits.

Posted by dam82 > 2023-05-19 12:23 | Report Abuse

Okie lah old uncle like me wrong words tak kisah janji dpt duit …let’s hope price will go lower …

Posted by Sardin > 2023-05-19 14:55 | Report Abuse

Price is heading south on the fear of El Nino hurts crop yield

Posted by Sardin > 2023-05-19 20:38 | Report Abuse

Serious rainfall in Feb and Mar, extreme heat in Apr and May and many months to come... I think CPO output in Malaysia for 2023 will be reduced instead of increase 2% as predicted by many analysts... The production forecast might no longer valid. Inventories will continue to go down due to poor harvest. El Nino normally lasts 2 years or longer. So I think there will be shortage by end of this year.