Posted by dam82 > 2023-04-10 16:43 | Report Abuse

Don't get me wrong , they have been talking bout self sufficient for ages just see their import from china since their war they said want to reduce made in china stuff yet its oposite ... so will not take these report seriouslly ... as for the prediction next 4 years don''t agree the hectrage in Indonesia is not expanding the same goes in malaysia and most of the country so it should be uptrend anyway buy UTDPLT you can sleap well ... waiting ex date price for now

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-10 16:53 | Report Abuse

Hi Abrahmi, I can't say you are wrong if you want to buy at 16.40 a piece. But you must have long legs and be able to run fast as you are walking through the mouth of the alligator. You must have both the speed and alert to run when the sentiment swing. Sometime price does not reflect the fundamental or future change until a big investor decide it is time to quit / profit take and the price may landslide faster than you could react. Even so you must have the courage to cut loss, or got your capital trapped for a long long period (years). Normally fundamental investor will tell you to buy when market is very pessimistic so buy when the blog is very quite when no one is interested to post and the trading volume is very low (banker likes to collect when volume is very low for extended period). I can't say you have no chance to make profit entering at 16.40 but for me, I'd hesitate. And I think people like Ooi hesitates too (otherwise he will just keep quite to buy instead of shouting here and there).

Posted by Ahlian > 2023-04-10 16:56 | Report Abuse

Sardin, good sharing. Can sell now. Now good price buy back later. Let's dump this counter. Less import from India in 2027.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-10 16:59 | Report Abuse

I agree with dam82, with UP you can sleep for a while. How deep you can sleep depends on at what price you bought. If you buy at 16.40, you must wake up faster than all of us. Haha.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-10 17:03 | Report Abuse

If you think the price will remain the same until just before ex-date, then buy after ex-date because you can save (i) trading cost including stamp duty (ii) interest. If you want to minimize the risk, then buy some days after ex-date. This is because at this point of time all the motivated sellers would have sold their shares.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-10 17:14 | Report Abuse

At least when ppl shout got substance, like how many
worker/hectare, where to find price of coconut sold.
When 'fish' talk, all talk no substance. Don't even know
where to look for info. Don under stand meaning of hesitate lah.
I did mention at what price I will collect again.
Please check my post 6 days ago.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-10 17:21 | Report Abuse

I think the profit you would be able to make depends more on what price you buy, rather than at what price you sell. It is always easier to buy than to sell. Never afraid of loosing a buying opportunity because you can always wait for another. If you have to ask someone, that means you are not confident. You may feel miserable to enter at this price when it fluctuates. The most difficult part of investing is not knowledge but patience and emotion. So only buy at a price you feel very comfortable with. I never ask anyone at what price should I buy or sell, because when it comes to this matter, you should trust only yourself.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-10 17:33 | Report Abuse

Everytime when I buy a stock, I'd like to know how much it would drop in worst case, not just how far it can fly. So you don't get panic when price goes the other direction and ask people how could this happen, out of stress. What is more important to consider is always the negatives. After you have gone through all the negatives points, and finally you press the "buy" button anyhow, you'll have least regret. That's just me.

Posted by dam82 > 2023-04-10 17:37 | Report Abuse

Sardin i also would consider what would be the worst case scenoria that could happen ... low palm oil price ..checked utdplt able to survive ..no debt .. checked ... war .. checked ... political stability checked .. corruption --checked no way wih this management ... so again just buy and sleap well ..but please also support carlsberg ya long time tidur ..

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-10 18:19 | Report Abuse

Hi dam82, I checked those too. The conclusion is that the company won't get bankrupt. But large price movement could still happen (which implies that it could still surprise you despite many things have been checked because there is always something else we did not check :). The historical price chart tells the truth. I used to be betting heavily in Guiness (before it was renamed as Heineken). It kept me safe in 2008. After sometime I quit because I thought it was overpriced. At that time Guiness's market share was #1 in Malaysia and one of my concern is whether or not it beat Carlsberg everytime I read the report. Guiness sells Heineken at that time and Heineken was so popular that Carlsberg in the end has to sell Asahi to counter the competition. Consumer sector was my favourite until mid of 2010-2020. I have only one problem with Heineken / Carlsberg in Malaysia - limited market size and declining demographic. But since you mentioned that, I'll take a look again.

Posted by dam82 > 2023-04-10 18:24 | Report Abuse

thanks sardin ....don't want hijack the forum with beer nanti kena whack pula now huhu ... by the why so many intrested in utdplt forum should it a boring stock ...

Posted by observatory > 2023-04-10 20:29 | Report Abuse

The monthly production figure published today shows output declined >20% YoY

Posted by observatory > 2023-04-10 20:32 | Report Abuse

The news about Indian production appeared last year after the record CPO price. The high price tempted new Indian growers.
Sometimes windfall in commodity products can be a curse. High prices attract new entrants who are not competitive at normal price level. The increase in supply will depress future price. However, due to the huge upfront investment, producers are compelled to produce even at a loss. This goes on until inefficient producers go bust, or demand eventually catches up with supply.
This happened to oil. It happened to gloves too.

Posted by observatory > 2023-04-10 20:33 | Report Abuse

The Reuter article shared by Sardin mentioned that Telangana currently has less than 1m acres. It plans to add up to 2m acres in the next 4 years.
Even if it is achieved by 2027, the total planted area is 2-3m acres, or about 1m hectares.
For perspective, this is less than 5% of total planted area in Malaysia (about 6m ha) + Indonesia (about 15m ha).
Besides, most will be young palms not yielding fruits yet.
It’s also not clear to me how conducive are the conditions there, although India has labor advantage over Malaysia.
More importantly, as CPO prices come down, some would be producers may be put off by future price uncertainty for such a long investment period.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-10 22:29 | Report Abuse

I think Indonesia started as a small player too, and then rapidly outgrow Malaysia. India may be more protective and may be more challenging for Malaysian plantation company to invest there. Not only they have labour advantage, the market is there means they also have tariff and delivery cost advantage. One more thing, if their government allow, they don't even need to be RSPO certified. Long time ago people told me there's almost no net cost to clear a forest to cultivate oil palm because the log could be sold and the profit is more than enough to cover planting cost. And the most important thing is, the land is so cheap (at that time). I think the land of the virgin forest in India is A LOT cheaper than here in Malaysia. All of these advantages could buy them time to learn to be an efficient planter.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-10 23:11 | Report Abuse

Hi Observatory, although there is drastic drop in Mar yoy, Q1 CPO production increase 1.2% yoy, which is already considered exceptional for the whole Q1 because this is achieved with 2.7% less trees in the golden age yoy. The number of trees in golden age will further reduce by 1.3% next year, according to my maths.

Posted by observatory > 2023-04-11 01:08 | Report Abuse

According to USDA, as of 2021 CPO yield for Malaysia, Indonesia and India are 3.8, 3.5 and 0.64 metric ton per hectare.
While we cannot rule out that India may one day replace its CPO import with home grown crop, I believe it still has a long way to go, starting from soil and seedlings.
Yes, it could still be a threat. But I feel it's more of a distant threat, which is at least a decade away.
There are many other distant threats too. Someone mentioned lab grown palm oil in this forum. Besides the eventual widespread adoption of commercial EV could see the collapse of biodiesel mandate too.
However, most of the values of palm oil companies are made up of discounted cash flows in the next 10 years. We need not be overly concern about prospect beyond a decade from now.

Posted by observatory > 2023-04-11 01:16 | Report Abuse

I checked past monthly production data. Own CPO production for Jan-Mar 2023 is 53,888MT. Jan-Mar 2022 is 57,866MT. On YTD basis, it's still a 7% decline.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-11 09:07 | Report Abuse

Observatory, not to worry much unless April production also drop a lot.
Furthermore, no prosperity tax this year and fertilizer price is dropping.
I will not worry about EV. If the third word population is growing
demand will catch up. Of course those high cost and low yield company
will not survive.

Posted by Pinky > 2023-04-11 09:43 | Report Abuse

U guys overanalyse, overworried la

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-11 10:25 | Report Abuse

Ya lo, why worry so much? Most of their land are between
North South Highway n Weat Coast highway. It also near
Tanjung Malim. In 10 years time, it maybe 3 to 4 times
of current value.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-11 11:13 | Report Abuse

Hi Observatory, ya your calculation is correct. I made a mistake in calculating the Jan-Mar CPO production this year.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-11 15:52 | Report Abuse

Whole Peninsular FFB yield drop in Mar. In Perak, average dropped 18.2% for all plantations. But UTDPLT suffer higher loss, exceeding 20%.

Posted by observatory > 2023-04-11 15:56 | Report Abuse

Good inputs from all of you!

Posted by Diamond7 > 2023-04-13 11:38 | Report Abuse

RM1.00 dividen on 2/5
Hooray!
Excellent dividend counter!
Well managed company!

Posted by abcb > 2023-04-18 10:56 | Report Abuse

If revaluation its land bank,it should be worth more than RM20

Posted by abcb > 2023-04-18 10:57 | Report Abuse

Target Price RM18

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-18 17:50 | Report Abuse

Throughout the 100 years history of UTDPLT, I didn't find any record of selling land (please correct me if I am wrong). So it may not be proper to measure the target price using the land value for small shareholders. But I agree that it worth more than RM 20 by asset value.

Posted by stockraider > 2023-04-19 12:55 | Report Abuse

Why u want to look into land value of Utd plant leh ?

This stock generating good profit & cashflow and paying good dividend all the time loh!

The focus is on UTD Plant cashflow generation & profitability sustainably mah!

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-19 17:44 | Report Abuse

True.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-19 17:49 | Report Abuse

Too bad this year AGM not to be done on-line. Unable to visit. The venue is Dewan Sanmarka Orang India. Why this time no more inside the estate? Thought got a chance to visit the estate, haiz...

Posted by stockraider > 2023-04-20 11:16 | Report Abuse

Very near their estate mah!
U may request to visit their estate after the AGM lunch & have another durian feast at their plantation mah!

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-20 16:05 | Report Abuse

Durian feast? Not mentioned in the notice leh... U makan their durian before ah?

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2023-04-20 20:21 | Report Abuse

Its been 2 years since i bought UP. My cost back then was RM13.90 and i have collected RM2.20 dividends to date. Next month will collect RM1. My effective holding cost (ex dividends) would be RM10.70. If UP can provide conservatively 80sen DPS, my holding cost would become zero/ free shares in 13 years time or 70sen DPS in 15 years time. Conservative investors sleep well.

Posted by stockraider > 2023-04-23 12:53 | Report Abuse

Good investment mah!

Div yield at more than 7% pa mah!

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Its been 2 years since i bought UP. My cost back then was RM13.90 and i have collected RM2.20 dividends to date. Next month will collect RM1. My effective holding cost (ex dividends) would be RM10.70. If UP can provide conservatively 80sen DPS, my holding cost would become zero/ free shares in 13 years time or 70sen DPS in 15 years time. Conservative investors sleep well.

Posted by Diamond7 > 2023-04-24 13:19 | Report Abuse

@stockraider!
Yes...Good investment!
Load up a truck load if there is a dip....
Hopefully can get at 14.00 after ex dividend

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-25 14:35 | Report Abuse

Going to announce 2023 Q1 earning soon

Posted by stockraider > 2023-04-25 17:36 | Report Abuse

Utd Plant is integrated co thus earnings will be very stable loh!

Posted by dam82 > 2023-04-27 09:38 | Report Abuse

waiting patiently to collect throughout next few months after ex date ... looking forward for their future earning with tanah rata fully contributing ....

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-27 09:58 | Report Abuse

Guess how much is EPS for Q1?

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-27 10:01 | Report Abuse

My estimation is 29.6~33.7 sen with higher chances on the lower side.

Posted by GS > 2023-04-27 10:51 | Report Abuse

kindly share the AGM highlights to us. Tq

Posted by dam82 > 2023-04-27 17:18 | Report Abuse

nice result for me

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-27 17:27 | Report Abuse

Hopefully FY 2023 divy will be more than RM 1.1

Posted by Sardin > 2023-04-27 23:15 | Report Abuse

Hi Ooihk899, I think RM 1.10 minimum is quite possible. But I'm a little bit disappointed that more fertiliser were applied in Q1 but yielded a lot less fruits.

Posted by GS > 2023-04-28 07:22 | Report Abuse

Beware of its QoQ Revenue -12% to RM 460m and PAT – 30% to RM 112.5m

Posted by dam82 > 2023-04-28 07:30 | Report Abuse

Not worried much there will be a period the trees need rest which means less output higher fertiliser cost .

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-28 08:24 | Report Abuse

So far, the management has been doing a good job. Let's just
trust that they will handle it well.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-28 08:27 | Report Abuse

Just worry about after collecting the dividend, what are you planning
to do with it, ha ha ha!!!

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-04-28 09:43 | Report Abuse

If you are Chintek shareholder, that's the result you should be worrying.