Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-29 17:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-29 17:06 | Report Abuse

Be smart, know when to get in, ride your rodeo and know when to leave.....

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-29 17:11 | Report Abuse

@OTB,

I concur your point.

There is good chance the Q3 results be as good or even surpass Q2 due to expected lower derivative loss and write back of derivative loss provision as discussed with Probability and Sslee just a few days ago.
Finger crossed.

Posted by searchingmoney > 2022-08-29 20:44 | Report Abuse

manyak company bagi dividend...

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-29 20:51 | Report Abuse

Aug 29): Goldman Sachs Group Inc urged investors to pile into commodities as most recession risks coursing through global markets are overblown in the near term, arguing that raw materials stand to rebound amid a profound energy crisis and tight physical fundamentals.

“Our economists view the risk of a recession outside Europe in the next 12 months as relatively low,” analysts including Sabine Schels, Jeffrey Currie and Damien Courvalin wrote in a note. “With oil the commodity of last resort in an era of severe energy shortages, we believe the pullback in the entire oil complex provides an attractive entry point for long-only investments.”

Note : I am bullish on food/CPO and energy

Posted by Rabbit2 > 2022-08-29 22:21 | Report Abuse

@Sslee
Agreed that derivative losses will be reversed but it's not a provision. It is merely a marked to market losses as at end June to reflect the current contract price in the market. This will eventually be reversed and replaced with actual periodical settlement.

If HRC and Petron consistently apply its hedging strategy and based on today's 29 August cut off, most losses will be reversed and likely there is a marked to market gain by now.

Accounting standards are trying hard to force all companies to reflect their numbers based on current fair values but it comes with unintended consequences in particular to those companies that are entering derivatives for hedging purposes.

If both HRC and Petron apply new hedge accounting rules under MFRS 9, these marked to market losses/gains could possibly be reflected under other comprehensive income instead of profit or loss.

That's my thought.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-29 22:34 | Report Abuse

Do not be naive loh!

For Petron it is applicable that its derivative it use is a form of instrument for hedging & it can be reversed loh!

On the otherhand for HRC its derivative instruments are a form of device to siphon money mah!

Just becareful loh.....for hengyuan it may not be completely applicable loh!

Posted by Rabbit2 > 7 minutes ago | Report Abuse

@Sslee
Agreed that derivative losses will be reversed but it's not a provision. It is merely a marked to market losses as at end June to reflect the current contract price in the market. This will eventually be reversed and replaced with actual periodical settlement.

If HRC and Petron consistently apply its hedging strategy and based on today's 29 August cut off, most losses will be reversed and likely there is a marked to market gain by now.

Accounting standards are trying hard to force all companies to reflect their numbers based on current fair values but it comes with unintended consequences in particular to those companies that are entering derivatives for hedging purposes.

If both HRC and Petron apply new hedge accounting rules under MFRS 9, these marked to market losses/gains could possibly be reflected under other comprehensive income instead of profit or loss.

That's my thought.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-29 22:45 | Report Abuse

very interesting, got such diff MFRS accounting also

Posted by Rabbit2 > Aug 29, 2022 10:21 PM | Report Abuse

@Sslee
Agreed that derivative losses will be reversed but it's not a provision. It is merely a marked to market losses as at end June to reflect the current contract price in the market. This will eventually be reversed and replaced with actual periodical settlement.

If HRC and Petron consistently apply its hedging strategy and based on today's 29 August cut off, most losses will be reversed and likely there is a marked to market gain by now.

Accounting standards are trying hard to force all companies to reflect their numbers based on current fair values but it comes with unintended consequences in particular to those companies that are entering derivatives for hedging purposes.

If both HRC and Petron apply new hedge accounting rules under MFRS 9, these marked to market losses/gains could possibly be reflected under other comprehensive income instead of profit or loss.

That's my thought.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-29 22:52 | Report Abuse

That is on theory loh!

What if they contract derivative instrument, only after the event had happened leh ??

Then It is a license to siphoned money loh!

Hengyuan derivative are not route thru a reputable house loh!

Just becareful loh!

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-29 22:56 | Report Abuse

Probability,
You can check out Tapis cut volume %

1963 - Esso Port Dickson Refinery comes onstream
1980 - Tapis Blend Crude Oil introduced at Port Dickson Refinery.
1990 - Commissioned second reformer at Port Dickson Refinery for higher mogas production and to meet lead phasedown.
1995 - Installed new crude distillation unit at Port Dickson Refinery to refine 75 thousand barrels of oil per day
1998 - Enhanced Port Dickson Refinery atmospheric pipestill tower for higher crude rate up to 88 thousand barrels of oil per day

The PD refinery is equiped with heavy naphtha continuous catalytic reformer (CCR) that can turn the heavy naphta into either mogas or diesel.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-29 22:59 | Report Abuse

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/Crude-oils/Crude-trading/Tapis

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-29 22:59 | Report Abuse

Any refinery can do that lah!

Btw Tapis is light crude mah!

Lu tau boh ?


Posted by Sslee > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

Probability,
You can check out Tapis cut volume %

1963 - Esso Port Dickson Refinery comes onstream
1980 - Tapis Blend Crude Oil introduced at Port Dickson Refinery.
1990 - Commissioned second reformer at Port Dickson Refinery for higher mogas production and to meet lead phasedown.
1995 - Installed new crude distillation unit at Port Dickson Refinery to refine 75 thousand barrels of oil per day
1998 - Enhanced Port Dickson Refinery atmospheric pipestill tower for higher crude rate up to 88 thousand barrels of oil per day

The PD refinery is equiped with heavy naphtha continuous catalytic reformer (CCR) that can turn the heavy naphta into either mogas or diesel.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-29 23:01 | Report Abuse

@sslee, did not get when you said 'Tapis cut vol %'

referring the Q&A , i do believe their statements on the yield

it appears like Tapis is very sweet and light (shorter hydrocarbon lengths avg)

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-29 23:02 | Report Abuse

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/

Link to all the different type of crude price

Posted by probability > 2022-08-29 23:03 | Report Abuse

ha ha, they did say its extra light..

Posted by Sslee > Aug 29, 2022 10:59 PM | Report Abuse

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/Crude-oils/Crude-trading/Tapis

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-29 23:04 | Report Abuse

Whole
crude
Butane
and
Lighter
IBP - 60F
Lt.
Naphtha
C5 - 165F
Hvy
Naphtha
165 -
330F
Kerosene
330 -
480F
Diesel
480 -
650F
Vacuum
Gas Oil
650 -
1000F
Vacuum
Residue 1000F+
Cut volume, % 100.0 1.8 7.1 19.1 20.1 23.2 23.7 5.0

Posted by Rabbit2 > 2022-08-29 23:05 | Report Abuse

@Probability
Yes. There are many ways. You have the choice of either applying mfrs 139 (old) or mfrs 9 (new but irrevocable) hedge accounting. Or for simplicity doing natural hedge and ignore about the accounting impact.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-29 23:07 | Report Abuse

Click download Tapis to see the detail Tapis spec and composition

Posted by probability > 2022-08-29 23:08 | Report Abuse

@sslee, ok got it. Its exactly matching the yield they mentioned on the Q&A...thanks

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/Global/Files/crude-oils/Tapis/Crude_Oil_Tapis_assay_pdf_new.pdf

Posted by kevinobc > 2022-08-29 23:15 | Report Abuse

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/all-petrol-diesel-prices-in-spore-rise-to-match-increases-by-caltex-shell

Posted by kevinobc > 2022-08-30 08:58 | Report Abuse

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-jumps-4-on-opec-cuts-mantra-2882080

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-30 09:15 | Report Abuse

Rabbit2 @Probability
Yes. There are many ways. You have the choice of either applying mfrs 139 (old) or mfrs 9 (new but irrevocable) hedge accounting. Or for simplicity doing natural hedge and ignore about the accounting impact.
29/08/2022 11:05 PM

TQVM Mike and Rabbit2 for confirmation that Petronm Q2 profit before tax should be RM (240,671,000 + 166,799,000)

The unrealized loss (RM166,799,000) on derivatives can be taken out from P&L and reflected under Other comprehensive income/(expense):Items that will be reclassified to profit or loss:

Posted by Tuchel > 2022-08-30 10:59 | Report Abuse

let's say petron agree to sell gasoline at July at RM5...however, the market price already rise to 7..so by 30June Q2 there will be mark to market loss of RM2. however, by this time Petron would have enter new agreement to sell at RM6.5-7 (as the market value is now higher) for Oct. let's say by Sept 30 the market price is RM6, there will be a Mark of market gain of RM1.
No 'reversal', but this is non-cash and the instrument will help when applied consistenly.
Coming quarter result will be really good

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-30 11:34 | Report Abuse

All these derivatives has the following risk mah!

1. Counter party risk....like the case of counter party contract with not well known or not reputable party in the case of Hengyuan.
2. Our speculation risk loh....if monthly consumption is say 150k barrel....they might enter contract of derivative for 500k barrel loh....thus price movement impact is magnify loh!
3. Transaction cost of derivative loh!

Posted by Rabbit2 > 2022-08-30 11:45 | Report Abuse

@Tuchel
Any marked to market gain/loss on derivatives will be reset to zero on its maturity date (i.e. reversal) eventually, leaving net settlement with counterparty only.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-30 11:46 | Report Abuse

If u want to invest in Refinery & petrol stations Petron is the best loh!

Not Hengyuan- Bcos potential kon loh!

Not petdag- Bcos overvalue loh!

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-30 12:11 | Report Abuse

Posted by Johnzhang > 1 day ago | Report Abuse

Stockraider,
Pls spare a thought to the management, employees and shareholders of HY lah. Don’t label people conman too quickly lah. There wasn’t dividend is largely due to huge capex required to update the plant and to provide huge working capital required for the business.

Petron and HY are both good and have different characteristics.

Posted by Tuchel > 2022-08-30 16:11 | Report Abuse

@Rabbit2
thanks for the info. but shouldn't it be physical delivery instead of cash settlement, since PetronM is not a speculator. the counterparty can easily be an airline hedging their fuel req.

Posted by Tuchel > 2022-08-30 16:22 | Report Abuse

nonetheless when prices drop like what happen this quarter should see the advantage of hedging. Hedging seems to prevent exorbitant quarter but should protect investor should prices fall drastically. around me i can see Petron is adding stations most aggresively, could keep if bought at good price.

Posted by PureBULL ... > 2022-08-30 16:49 | Report Abuse

Program selling takes over when prices dropped below the floor levels i.e.

hy < 534
petronm < 538

BE FEARFUL 1st, on preparation mode to safety.,.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WxEqwzK0/
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

the FIGHTING is going ON.,.

IF able to pierce thru the ceiling level = ho.say.leow i.e.

hy > 562
petronm > 557

Posted by Rabbit2 > 2022-08-30 17:24 | Report Abuse

@Tuchel you are right except physical delivery which is not practical at all. should be cash settlement

Posted by tehka > 2022-08-30 17:37 | Report Abuse

Stockraider, your so called China con company give 10 sen dividend oh...

Posted by tehka > 2022-08-30 17:46 | Report Abuse

Wish this Thursday Petronm follow HY to limit up

Posted by bsinvestor > 2022-08-30 18:05 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan blown petronm earning loh. the return of the king.

Posted by searchingmoney > 2022-08-30 20:17 | Report Abuse

apa macam, Hrc ade bagi dividend...

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-30 22:21 | Report Abuse

Correctloh....!!
This time mike ....talk some sense loh!

If Hengyuan use the same way of recognising profit like Petron, it would have reported a loss of Rm 412m instead of rm 667m profit mah! That means q2 HRC should report an EPS loss of Rm 1.37 instead of positive eps of Rm 2.22 loh!

Why Petron treatment is the correct approach leh ?
The hedging losses of Rm 1,078M should not classified as a comprehensive income & expenses, it should flow to Profit & Loss Account mah!

Why leh ?? Hedging is mean to smooth out the earning volatility of business, thus the hedging derivative impact should be matched against the Profit & Loss account....thus the computation of EPS should be amended loh!

So in conclusion the Profit & Eps for Q2 for Petron should be Rm 183M or Rm 0.68 per share v Hengyuan Q2 Loss of Rm 412M or EPS loss (Rm 1.37 per share}


Posted by Mikecyc > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

Haha why ah NTA is dropped ??

AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7
Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
5.2546
6.8399

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-30 22:23 | Report Abuse

Please do not get kon by Hengyuan manipulative Accounts loh!

Actually Hengyuan is in deep trouble loh!

Posted by AzlanIshtiqal > 2022-08-30 22:56 | Report Abuse

Saya tunggu Petronm naik ke harga RM6 lagi

Posted by Michael Kwok > 2022-08-30 23:00 | Report Abuse

Sell call petron 5.35-5.40
Tp rm 3.50-rm 3.70
30/8/2022 11.00pm

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-30 23:01 | Report Abuse

Betul loh!

Petron is really making monies but not Hengyuan mah!

Posted by AzlanIshtiqal > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Saya tunggu Petronm naik ke harga RM6 lagi

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-31 06:59 | Report Abuse

Stockraider late to the party, overstay late for the last lucky draw and end up holding the bag.

By the way, I think by next year when EU boycott Russia oil and refined products the refining margin will be very good. This time round hope stockraider don't be late again to the party.

Posted by Sharewire > 2022-08-31 09:18 | Report Abuse

Qtr3 profit will explosive dynamite profit due HEDGING GAIN !
Hengyuan and petronm

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-31 10:16 | Report Abuse

HY pay 10sen 1st interim dividend leh.
Petron no interim dividend leh.

Posted by Sharewire > 2022-08-31 10:54 | Report Abuse

Pay thru the nose tax 230million ! What a fool
If I the MD I pay rm1 ringgit for tax!
I divert the dividends 30million into mine pocket.
I hire qqq333 and stock raider as my advisor.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-31 11:34 | Report Abuse

Do not be naive loh!
Hengyuan although reported more than Rm 600m in profit in Q2, but its unrealized mark to mkt losses exceed Rm 1 billion mah!

The net effect is hengyuan is losing more than Rm 400m for q2 loh!

Please do not ignore effect like it is nothing loh...it is like u running a race & u r really behind by Rm 400m loh!
Some people will say.....this will catch up in Q3....but question is there may be possibility of falling further behind....bcos the future crack spread has fallen towards USD 3 to 4 level mah!

Hengyuan investors....face enormous challenges....beside need to catch up....with enormous net loss of Rm 400m or loss of Rm 1.10 per share....its future crack spread margin has fallen behind drastically loh!

Investors....are advice to exercise caution & preferably take profit whenever u can, if u like this industry better to switch to Petron, that has actually shown a better positive result of eps above Rm 0.60....despite also reporting hedging losses but it is overcome by prudent & efficient management in managing its risk loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-31 11:35 | Report Abuse

Why Raider are so against Hengyuan leh ??

The key point is its consistent enormous derivative losses mah !!

The key question to ask is, why Hengyuan have such a huge derivative losses of more than Rm 1 billion compare a small manageable loss at Petron leh ??

The risk at hengyuan has the following possibility loh!

1. The enormous derivative losses of hengyuan are due management/owner deliberate disguise attempt to siphon cash out of hengyuan thru hedging disguise losses loh!

2. It could be genuine loss, but due to poor & risk management of hengyuan that resulted this uncontrol huge losses mah!

Both scenario are equally very bad for hengyuan loh!

U just imagine lah! If hengyuan has done nothing to hedge in Q2.....it could have make more than rm 600m.....but bcos it wanted to hedge it loss more than rm 400m loh!

This type of situation should not happen loh....it is a bad gambling mentality shown in hengyuan mah!

At Petron.....the hedging is moderate & manageable despite reporting a hedging losses...the company turn in net profit with genuine eps exceeding 60 sen in q2 loh!

The management of Petron are rational & dependable, unlike gambling like type of attitude of the management in hengyuan mah!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-31 11:47 | Report Abuse

U see hengyuan reported EPS exceeding Rm 2.00.....but actually the actual net losses at hengyuan net of derivative losses is exceeding rm 1.00 mah!

To catch naive investors to chae.....who do not look in detail....Hengyuan try to catch these people...by declaring dividend of 10 sen.....in and attempt to entice the ignorance loh!

Hengyuan balance sheet is in trouble with borrowing exceeding Rm 2.8 billion or Rm 9.80 borrowing per hengyuan share loh!

This high leverage is risky loh.....the actual losses exceeded Rm 400m for q2 mah!
Posted by Johnzhang > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

HY pay 10sen 1st interim dividend leh.
Petron no interim dividend leh.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-31 12:12 | Report Abuse

Do not be fool loh!

This tax are not paid mah! It is just a provision for tax todate mah!

Remember there is Derivative losses of more than Rm 1 billion....once this derivative losses are settled....hengyuan profit will be minimal thus actual tax will be very low loh!

U see the benefit of this disguise hedging losses....is that huge fund can be siphon from hengyuan and the same time the tax payout will be low loh!

Those who suffer will be hengyuan minority shareholders & creditors loh!

Posted by Sharewire > 24 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Reminder hengyuan pay tax 200million just to be fake.!
Bad actor claim!

Posted by Sharewire > 2022-08-31 13:27 | Report Abuse

Petronm suffer 300++ hedging loss but not shiphoned money to Philippines!
Hengyuan suffer hedging loss but shiphoned to china
"CLAIM STOCK RAIDER"
Stock raider own petronm but didn't own hengyuan.
So his verdict is Fake

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-31 15:09 | Report Abuse

Sudah lah Stockraider. What you do doesn’t help you and others!