@pang72, don't forget the potentials for Genm to successfully dispose off its Maimi land in next 2 months and clinching of a lucrative New York full casino licence.
If US Fed starts cutting interest rates from March 2024 as the market prices in now, we can expect meaningful reduction in interest expenses in Genting from 2024 as it gradually rolls over its debts.
Singapore dollars again rose past RM3.50 yesterday. With Singapore economy expected to grow strongly, Singapore dollars are expected to remain strong in coming years.
Singapore dollar was exchanging at RM2.20-2.25 back in 2012-2013, and has strengthened over 59% against the ringgit over the past 10 years.
Who knows how much Singapore dollar may be by 2031-2033 when Sentosa 2.0 expansion completes and Genting Singapore EBITDA hit SGD1.8 billion a year. Genting Singapore is expected to remain in net cash position by 2031-2033 as its operating cashflows are strong (over SGD1.0 billion a year from 2024) and sufficient to fund its expansion capex (remaining SGD5.3 billion to be spent over next 8 years). Allowing for 4 sen dividend every year (or SGD480 million), Genting Singapore will still have over SGD500 million operating cashflows a year to fund the capex (averaged at SGD660 million a year) as it has net cash of SGD3.3 billion now.
So by 2031-2033, Genting Singapore free cashflows may top SGD1.8 billion a year (as no interest expenses but may have interest income), and if multiply by the exchange rate then say at SGD1.00:RM4.00 then it may have free cashflows of RM7.2 billion a year available for dividend payouts. For its 52.5% stakes in Genting Singapore, Genting Bhd will be entitled to potentially RM3.8 billion of dividend payouts from Genting Singapore (if 100% payout ratio). That would be almost RM1.00 per share of dividend for Genting Bhd shareholders every year then!! At 5% dividend yield, Genting Bhd could be trading at RM20.00 per share then.
@keyman, I am not sure if there will be another lockdown in Singapore, no one knows at the moment, I guess this is the risk investors need to assess for themselves. I have no answer to that.
I think if you are long term investors, at least with a view to hold it till 2031 to see through the Sentosa 2.0 expansion, you need not worry too much for another lockdown.
Just like what we have seen, Genting share was trading at as high as RM9.00-10.00 before the pandemic then collapsed to a low of RM3.00 now up to RM4.70. If there were to be another lockdown in 2024 (though I think the chance is low), the lockdown would not be as severe as in 2020. And you would bet Genting share price would at worst fall back to RM3.00 level.
But if the lockdown did get lifted off in 2024, and Genting Sentosa 2.0 expansion gets full stream ahead in coming years, then we may potentially see Genting share price rising back to RM9.00-10.00 level as before the pandemic, or even higher to RM20.00 if its expansion plans go well ahead.
UOB Kay Hian keeps ‘market weight’ on aviation sector, cites Chinese visitor arrival driven-growth..
In his Dec 11 report, Chen notes the increase of Singapore’s air traffic recovery being more driven by Singaporeans travelling overseas, which have “ already exceeded pre-pandemic levels at 105% to 110% in 10MFY23.
The number of foreign visitors to the city-state has also slowly but surely been recovering at less than 80% of pre-pandemic levels, except for Chinese visitors, who are currently only at about 50% of pre-pandemic levels.
“Before the pandemic, China was Singapore’s largest source market of international visitors, forming 19% of total international visitor arrivals to Singapore in 2019.
Nothing changes ……same old arguments (green wave, Corona virus, tax, etc etc) ….put forward. Fact remains the same…share price is determined by supply / demand ….. more sellers than buyers emerge after small gains from previous price falls ….
Ask yourself. Will it file in bankruptcy even the worst senario. If yes, then just sell it. If no, what to worry for. Sorry to say, I am still waiting for cheap tickets 😉
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Michael_chan2022
3,349 posts
Posted by Michael_chan2022 > 2023-12-16 15:55 | Report Abuse
Two weeks remain until the end of 2023. Where do you anticipate the KLSE index will end?