LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 24 (Reuters) - China’s surging imports of crude oil this year are the major driver of higher prices on the demand side, but the flip side to this is soaring Chinese fuel exports that are hurting profit margins at regional refiners.
The world’s largest crude importer took in 9.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter, up 7 percent from the same period in 2017, according to customs data.
Exports of refined products, however, have jumped by even larger margins, with shipments of gasoline and diesel reaching record highs in March, according to the data released on Monday.
Gasoline exports were 1.7 million tonnes in March, or about double what they were in the same month last year. In the first quarter, China shipped 3.6 million tonnes of gasoline, or about 312,000 bpd, and some 43 percent above the 216,000 bpd exported in the same period of 2017.
Diesel exports were 2.4 million tonnes in March, equivalent to about 580,000 bpd, with shipments around 392,000 bpd in the first quarter, a gain of some 12 percent on the year-ago period.
Taking all oil products together shows that China’s exports in the first quarter were 1.27 million bpd, up almost 20 percent on 1.06 million bpd shipped in the same period last year.
Looking at crude import numbers along with the product exports shows that of the additional 600,000 bpd of crude oil imported in the first quarter, about 210,000 bpd was exported as additional refined fuels.
It appears that this rising supply of oil products from China has weighed somewhat on regional prices, especially in gasoline, which has witnessed the biggest increase in exports from China.
The profit margin, or crack, on producing a barrel of 92-RON gasoline from Brent crude in Singapore GL92-SIN-CRK, the regional benchmark, slumped to the lowest in 20 months on April 19, hitting $5.42 a barrel.
It has since recovered somewhat to $6.50 a barrel as of Monday, but it’s still almost 60 percent below the recent peak of $16.34, reached in August last year.
" Meanwhile, Chinese companies have been increasingly tapping into markets further afield -- in the Americas, Africa and Europe -- instead of their traditional markets in Southeast Asia.
"Finding good outlets in the international market is a necessary step to prepare for intensive competition against the traditional exporting countries," the first trader added.
Chinese companies have also been actively looking for retail outlets overseas that can absorb their exports. Both Sinopec and CNPC's PetroChina have petrol stations in Singapore via acquisitions. Sinopec bought a 75% stake in Chevron's South Africa business in March, which included about 800 Caltex-branded service stations. PetroChina is looking at retail and storage projects in Southeast Asia, Africa and South America, according to company sources.
NO QUOTAS FOR INDEPENDENT REFINERS
Independent refineries were not issued export quotas in the first round of allocation for 2018.
The quotas under the general trade route for 2018 were allocated to four state-owned oil companies -- CNPC, Sinopec, CNOOC and Sinochem -- and comprised 6.99 million mt of gasoil, 6.55 million mt of gasoline and 2.7 million mt of jet fuel.
"We will still attempt to apply for export quotas, but need to wait until the second quarter to see whether there is opportunity," said a source at an independent refinery in Shandong. "We believe the government will deregulate the market eventually," he added.
In 2016, 12 Chinese refiners that were not part of Sinopec, CNPC, Sinochem or CNOOC were granted export quotas under the processing trade route and exported a total of around 900,000 mt products. But in 2017 the government stopped issuing quotas to them. "
$6.50 crack for Mogas 92. Malaysia still got RON 92? Hengyuan produce RON 92? Dont have loh.
Mogas 95? Diesel? Jet fuel? Can show the crack spread please. These are the relevant ones here.
High of $16.34 cannot be used to compare loh. You and 3iii are the champions of Q3 2017. Then you should know that this $16.34 cannot be used as a benchmark
Based on your line of thoughts, china exporting lots of gasoline, singapore mogas 92 spread futures (which is not even real but a hedging derivative) fell. Without any info on mogas 95 spread, diesel spread, you are able to assume that the spreads have also fallen significantly.
This like saying wind of support for opposition is strong. Opposition is going to capture Penang again. As such, opposition will also capture Johor and Negeri Sembilan.
truth be told, it does look like easier to see $6 than to see $10.......unless.......unless they surprise everyone and come out with earnings of > $1 for first quarter..............
Valero Energy Reports First Quarter 2018 Results improved due to higher refinery margin....
SAN ANTONIO, April 26, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) (“Valero”) today reported net income attributable to Valero stockholders of $469 million, or $1.09 per share, for the first quarter of 2018 compared to $305 million, or $0.68 per share, for the first quarter of 2017. Excluding the special items reflected in the accompanying earnings release tables, first quarter 2018 adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $431 million, or $1.00 per share, an increase of 47 percent in adjusted per share results compared to the first quarter of 2017.
Refining The refining segment reported $922 million of operating income for the first quarter of 2018 compared to $640 million for the first quarter of 2017. First quarter 2018 operating income includes a $170 million benefit from the Blender’s Tax Credit and $10 million of expenses primarily related to ongoing repairs at certain of the company’s refineries to address damage resulting from Hurricane Harvey in 2017 and other inclement weather conditions that occurred in the first quarter of 2018. Excluding these special items, operating income was $762 million, an increase of $122 million versus first quarter 2017 driven primarily by higher distillate margins, partly offset by narrower discounts for medium and heavy sour crude oils versus Brent.
Refinery throughput capacity utilization was 94 percent, and throughput volumes averaged 2.9 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2018, which is 93,000 barrels per day higher than the first quarter of 2017. The company exported a total of 271,000 barrels per day of gasoline and distillate during the first quarter of 2018.
Biofuel blending costs were $206 million in the first quarter of 2018, which is $60 million greater than in the first quarter of 2017, mainly due to higher Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices.
“We delivered solid results despite a relatively soft first quarter, and we remain optimistic on fundamentals for the balance of the year,” said Joe Gorder, Valero Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. “Our refineries are well-situated to take advantage of discounted heavy sour and domestic sweet crude oils versus Brent and to meet the growing demand for refined products in Latin America.” ......
Essar Oil UK to see rise in margins following refinery upgradation
Essar Oil (UK), which owns and operates Britain's Stanlow Refinery, will touch double-digit margins this fiscal after it completed a USD 250 million investment in upgradation of the refinery, its chief executive S Thangapandian said.
The company, controlled by Ruia-family of Mumbai that sold Essar Oil to Russia's Rosneft for USD 12.9 billion, has completed efficiency enhancement programme, the Project Tiger Cub, following which Stanlow's annual crude oil processing is projected to go up to 72 million barrels per day from 68 million bpd, he said.
"The project was completed in January-March quarter but the full payback from Tiger Cub will take around 12-15 months," Thangapandian added.
The refinery throughput in 2017-18 fiscal was around 53.8 million barrels, which was lower than normal due to a shutdown undertaken for completion of Project Tiger Cub.
In 2018-19, the throughput is projected at 72 million barrels considering that refinery was not operational in the first 20 days of April because of the same turnaround shutdown. "Refinery throughput is expected to reach the targeted level in 2019-20," he said.
The company had earned USD 9.6 on turning every barrel of crude oil into fuel in 2017-18 fiscal. "The gross refining margin is projected to increase to USD 10.1 per barrel in FY 2018-19," he added.
Thangapandian said the company, which now has 55 petrol stations in UK, is targeting 400 pumps in five years.
It has also entered into the direct aviation fuel supply market, selling the fuel produced at Stanlow to major airlines such as Emirates, Etihad, Jet2.com and Oman Air.
These direct sales presently make up for 10 per cent of the 1.2 million tonnes of jet fuel produced at Stanlow. Going forward, the company is looking to scale up the sales to 40-50 per cent.
Essar has invested over USD 800 million since acquiring Stanlow in July 2011.
Read more at: //economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/63785924.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Gasoline sales seem to face a long-term threat from electric cars, but in the near term, the outlook for companies that turn crude oil into gasoline has rarely looked better. Demand for refining is poised to grow faster than supply in the years ahead, leading to a surge in profits and share prices across the industry.
Refineries, with their vast tangles of pipes and stacks, look endlessly complex, but at the heart of each is a process similar to the one that turns runoff from fermented corn mash into moonshine: distillation. The more sophisticated the refinery, the heavier the crude it can break down into gasoline, jet and ship fuel, heating oil, and more. Shipping costs for refined products are low; a gallon of gasoline, recently around $2 at wholesale, costs a nickel or so to transport between the U.S. and Latin American or Europe. That means profits in one market can depend upon supply growth in another.
Oil Refiners Are Primed for Profits “You have to look at refining globally, or you’re never going to get the right answers,” says Doug Terreson, head of energy research at Evercore ISI. Terreson has been tracking every refinery construction project in the world since the 1990s, paying attention to capacities, technologies used, and likely yields. In 2003, when he was at Morgan Stanley, he noticed demand was rising but there was little new supply coming. So he published a major call: A “golden age of refining” had arrived. “That’s a career-limiting call if you’re wrong,” says Terreson. He wasn’t. As a group, U.S. refiners gained 1,100% by the time he downgraded them in 2006.
Fifteen years later, Terreson is making a new call: “It’s not your father’s golden age, but we’ll take it,” he wrote in a December note for Evercore. Demand once again looks likely to outpace supply. That should widen the “crack spread”—the difference between crude’s cost and prices of refined products. Don’t expect refiners’ shares to go vertical again, but their consensus earnings projections could rise 20% from here, pulling the stocks higher. Terreson has buy ratings on Andeavor (ANDV), Valero Energy (VLO), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), and Phillips 66 (PSX), and he notes that Andeavor and Valero have the most exposure to refining.
Andeavor could jump 30% in a year. Formerly Tesoro, it changed its name last year, after it bought Western Refining for $6.4 billion. Last year, Andeavor generated 45% of its Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, from refining; 26% from marketing, or selling fuel, Twinkies, and more via 3,250 service stations under banners like Arco, Shell and Mobil; and 29% through majority ownership of Andeavor Logistics (ANDX), a limited partnership with pipelines, terminals, and other assets. ....
.... But while Wall Street is a little wary of the oil majors, some investment banks are hyping Big Oil stocks. Goldman Sachs says there are four main reasons to like the oil majors, at least in the short run: new projects coming online will add production, refining margins are solid, capex is low and sustainable and commodity prices are on the upswing. Goldman recommended ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Canadian Natural Resources and Suncor Energy, but says its top idea for the quarter for investors is to buy ConocoPhillips. ....
Valero Energy Reports First Quarter 2018 Results improved due to higher refinery margin....
SAN ANTONIO, April 26, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) (“Valero”) today reported net income attributable to Valero stockholders of $469 million, or $1.09 per share, for the first quarter of 2018 compared to $305 million, or $0.68 per share, for the first quarter of 2017. Excluding the special items reflected in the accompanying earnings release tables, first quarter 2018 adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $431 million, or $1.00 per share, an increase of 47 percent in adjusted per share results compared to the first quarter of 2017.
Refining The refining segment reported $922 million of operating income for the first quarter of 2018 compared to $640 million for the first quarter of 2017. First quarter 2018 operating income includes a $170 million benefit from the Blender’s Tax Credit and $10 million of expenses primarily related to ongoing repairs at certain of the company’s refineries to address damage resulting from Hurricane Harvey in 2017 and other inclement weather conditions that occurred in the first quarter of 2018. Excluding these special items, operating income was $762 million, an increase of $122 million versus first quarter 2017 driven primarily by higher distillate margins, partly offset by narrower discounts for medium and heavy sour crude oils versus Brent.
Refinery throughput capacity utilization was 94 percent, and throughput volumes averaged 2.9 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2018, which is 93,000 barrels per day higher than the first quarter of 2017. The company exported a total of 271,000 barrels per day of gasoline and distillate during the first quarter of 2018.
“We delivered solid results despite a relatively soft first quarter, and we remain optimistic on fundamentals for the balance of the year,” said Joe Gorder, Valero Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. “Our refineries are well-situated to take advantage of discounted heavy sour and domestic sweet crude oils versus Brent and to meet the growing demand for refined products in Latin America.”
RAIDER COMMENT; THATS WHY CONFIRMED HENGYUAN REFINERY MARGIN IS GOOD BCOS "ITS refineries are well-situated to take advantage of discounted heavy sour and domestic sweet crude oils versus Brent and to meet the growing demand for refined products in Latin America.”
Look at the balance sheet of HY....there have increased cash and reduce borrowing by almost rm 600m, this is real cash mah....!! This is really the operating strength of HY loh...!!
Now crack spread of 2018 should average usd 7.00 or more, not too far mah, on top of that the crude price diff between brent and wti is usd 6 per barrel...this can easily contribute usd 2 to 3 per barrel margin to hengyuan mah....!!
Thus hengyuan avg conservative eps could be rm 2.00 for 2018 loh...!!
THIS ARTICLE CONFIRMED HY MARGIN IS AROUND USD 8 TO 9 PER BARREL COMPRISES OF CRACK SPREAD USD 7 PER BARREL PLUS HEAVY CRUDE SAVING USD 2 AS PER ESSAR REFINERY LOH...!!
Essar Oil UK to see rise in margins following refinery upgradation
Essar Oil (UK), which owns and operates Britain's Stanlow Refinery, will touch double-digit margins this fiscal after it completed a USD 250 million investment in upgradation of the refinery, its chief executive S Thangapandian said. QUITE SIMILIAR TO HY UPGRADE OF RM 700M LOH...!!
"The project was completed in January-March quarter but the full payback from Tiger Cub will take around 12-15 months. CORRECTLOH HENGYUAN PAYBACK IS ABOUT 12 MTHS VERY SIMILIAR MAH...!!
The refinery throughput in 2017-18 fiscal was around 53.8 million barrels, which was lower than normal due to a shutdown undertaken for completion of Project Tiger Cub.THIS WORK UP TO 158K BPD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN HY AT 120K BPD
In 2018-19, the throughput is projected at 72 million barrels USUAL OUTPUT IS 197K BPD LOH, considering that refinery was not operational in the first 20 days of April because of the same turnaround shutdown. "Refinery throughput is expected to reach the targeted level in 2019-20," he said.
The company had earned USD 9.6 on turning every barrel of crude oil into fuel in 2017-18 fiscal. "The gross refining margin is projected to increase to USD 10.1 per barrel in FY 2018-19,
Essar has invested over USD 800 million since acquiring Stanlow in July 2011. REMEMBER LOH...HY PREVIOUSLY SHELL UPGRADED ITS REFINERY IN 2013 FOR RM 810M MAH....! WHICH IS EVEN NEVER THAN ESSAR LOH...!!
Based on page 31 of the annual report,2018 from HY... 31% - Gasoline
40M * 0.7 /7.35*0.31=1.18M, close to 1.15M ton of gasoline after upgraded per annum by HY..... Annual output is Max output, almost 100% operational (using 70% as normal throughput)
There is totally NO GAPPING hole!!!!!!
Posted by Probability > Apr 26, 2018 04:32 PM | Report Abuse light naphtha falls under gasoline category. Total for gasoline then becomes 33%.
1.15 MT is max rated capacity, using 80% standard as normal throughput of operating level means only = 0.92 MT per annum.
42 barrels per annum x (1 ton/7.35 barrel) x 33% = 1.88 MT
0.92 MT as the gasoline generation capacity is still less than 50% of its current gasoline output.
If you notice the report properly, you will notice that Probability 's calculation for the 50% upgraded refinery is already wrong...... Again he is wrong .... No surprise... The report from HY is very informative.... You can see many numbers that Probability are wrong.... So one can guess how inaccurate Probability hypothesis is...
though i hold it, personal feeling is RM5 seem easier than RM15... :-(
>>> qqq3 which will be first? $ 10 or $ 6?
truth be told, it does look like easier to see $6 than to see $10.......unless.......unless they surprise everyone and come out with earnings of > $1 for first quarter..............
though i hold it, personal feeling is RM5 seem easier than RM15... :-(
>>> qqq3 which will be first? $ 10 or $ 6?
truth be told, it does look like easier to see $6 than to see $10.......unless.......unless they surprise everyone and come out with earnings of > $1 for first quarter..............
though i hold it, personal feeling is RM5 seem easier than RM15... :-(
>>> qqq3 which will be first? $ 10 or $ 6?
truth be told, it does look like easier to see $6 than to see $10.......unless.......unless they surprise everyone and come out with earnings of > $1 for first quarter..............
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
John_Lee
468 posts
Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-26 20:20 | Report Abuse
Wow! We are still in april and you already know about may and june. Wow!
How did you do that? Wow!
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Posted by probability > Apr 26, 2018 03:40 PM | Report Abuse
main problem is not Q1...but Q2.
If any buys after Q1 results....IB will short it like there is no tomorrow.
Infact...tomorrow...is only to-sorrow.