Posted by GT > 2018-04-26 15:56 | Report Abuse

crude oil price high means your cost higher... and at the same time if crack spread getting lower... the profit margin will be decreased a lot...

Posted by GT > 2018-04-26 16:03 | Report Abuse

@dragon, assuming I referring to the correct data of crack spread, april figure is low but not the worst... the worst time was ard 3rd quarter of 2016... but definitely this low crack spread will impact hengyuan... regards to how bad it impacted the result I dunno the figure... some ppl wanna bet on this but personally I think this is a high risk bet...

Posted by mneo > 2018-04-26 16:03 | Report Abuse

If you notice the report properly, you will notice that Probability 's calculation for the 50% upgraded refinery is already wrong...... Again he is wrong .... No surprise... The report from HY is very informative.... You can see many numbers that Probability are wrong.... So one can guess how inaccurate Probability hypothesis is...

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2018-04-26 16:04 | Report Abuse

check the CME futures spread and see for yourself

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2018-04-26 16:12 | Report Abuse

even at 50 % down profit, that eps 1.55 ringgit.
@PE8 that's 12.40

Posted by zoizai > 2018-04-26 16:12 | Report Abuse

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/26/the-associated-press-royal-dutch-shell-says-1q-earnings-rose-67-percent.html

Posted by Kitkat88 > 2018-04-26 16:12 | Report Abuse

Dragon already give u simple fundamental analysis
If donot understand .pls put ur money in fd for shaken luke

Posted by GT > 2018-04-26 16:14 | Report Abuse

@dragon, yes you have a valid point there regards to the refinery shutdown... the point is many ppl here buying in something that they don't really understand, they say some ppl calculated wrong and so on, but how well do they actually know then? so they just "bet"... for me it is ok if one wanna bet... but u need to bet it smart and careful...

Posted by zoizai > 2018-04-26 16:14 | Report Abuse

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/shell-profit-soars-stronger-oil-prices

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2018-04-26 16:15 | Report Abuse

time will tell....let see whos right

Posted by probability > 2018-04-26 16:21 | Report Abuse

"Income from the refining and marketing segment, known as downstream, weakened due to lower refining margins and plant availability"

Downstream earnings dipped 35%:

https://www.shell.com/investors/financial-reporting/quarterly-results/quarterly-results-2018/q1-2018.html

Downstream earnings:

Q1-2017 was: 2489
Q1-2018: 1687

Shell also includes petrochemical segment on its downstream category.
Excluding this refining section could be 50% drop.

Posted by GT > 2018-04-26 16:22 | Report Abuse

zoizai http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/shell-profit-soars-stronger-oil-...
26/04/2018 16:14

why simply share this kinda link to mislead ppl?

since when HY is a upstream business? it really puzzled me if some ppl here know what are they buying or not...

Posted by littlebull > 2018-04-26 16:24 | Report Abuse

turun banyak banyak naik sikit sikit. habislah ni counter.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-26 16:32 | Report Abuse

light naphtha falls under gasoline category. Total for gasoline then becomes 33%.

1.15 MT is max rated capacity, using 80% standard as normal throughput of operating level means only = 0.92 MT per annum.

42 barrels per annum x (1 ton/7.35 barrel) x 33%
= 1.88 MT

0.92 MT as the gasoline generation capacity is still less than 50% of its current gasoline output.

.................................................

There is STILL A GAPING 50% hole to be filled!!!!



Posted by mneo > Apr 26, 2018 04:03 PM | Report Abuse

If you notice the report properly, you will notice that Probability 's calculation for the 50% upgraded refinery is already wrong...... Again he is wrong .... No surprise... The report from HY is very informative.... You can see many numbers that Probability are wrong.... So one can guess how inaccurate Probability hypothesis is...

Posted by probability > 2018-04-26 16:32 | Report Abuse

Refer all other annual reports of HY....gasoline production is at 37% yield at the least (minimum).

Posted by probability > 2018-04-26 16:33 | Report Abuse

aiyo dragon...let them dig lor...the more they dig the rubbish pile...the more the rotten smell will come out lor...kikiki

Posted by dragonslayer > Apr 26, 2018 04:30 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyo Tech Spec...open tech class again...no need to teach them lah...they overly panlai one lah...wakakaka...kikiki

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2018-04-26 16:37 | Report Abuse

his sense of logic is also swayed

Posted by Tongkarat > 2018-04-26 16:42 | Report Abuse

Light blue eye all the way....

Posted by Tongkarat > 2018-04-26 16:48 | Report Abuse

United we are....light blue eye...

Posted by Tongkarat > 2018-04-26 16:50 | Report Abuse

No worries ah gon.... everything under control....light blue eye all the way

Posted by MC33 > 2018-04-26 17:06 | Report Abuse

Cannnot use foto on any banner ??? I saw some candidate s foto on a banner

Posted by Tongkarat > 2018-04-26 17:12 | Report Abuse

Light blue eye all the way.... Ini Kali lahhhhhhh

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-26 17:26 | Report Abuse

Do not listen to the rubbish of Probability....the avg crack spread of whole yr 2017 is usd rm 8.40...eps is the whole 1 yr rm 3.10 mah....!!
THIS ALREADY DISCLOSE HY ANNUAL REPORT.

Now crack spread of 2018 should average usd 7.00 or more, not too far mah, on top of that the crude price diff between brent and wti is usd 6 per barrel...this can easily contribute usd 2 to 3 per barrel margin to hengyuan mah....!!

Thus hengyuan avg conservative eps could be rm 2.00 for 2018 loh...!!

With eps rm 2.00....Hengyuan TP rm 13.00 is not unreasonable loh..!!

Posted by Investar2862 > 2018-04-26 17:30 | Report Abuse

If we want to win, we must only listen and follow the winners, not the losers!!!

Posted by Tongkarat > 2018-04-26 17:37 | Report Abuse

Come come come..... support light blue eye

Posted by probability > 2018-04-26 17:41 | Report Abuse

despite hurricane uplifting the crack spread by 10 USD/brl to 16 USD/brl....HY CCS margin is 7USD/brl for 2017....

this year no Hurricane...crack drop at least 4 USD/barrel...and no FIFO margins...

7 - 4 = 3 USD/brl CCS margin for 2018

meaning CCS margin would go below 2016 level of 5.5 USD/brl (reported in 2017 annual report)....

...................................

Thats a whopping 2.5 USD/brl below 2016 level!!

we saw what was the earnings like in 2016 without tax of 24%.

Its easy to predict what would be for 2018 with tax..




Posted by stockraider > Apr 26, 2018 05:26 PM | Report Abuse

Do not listen to the rubbish of Probability....the avg crack spread of whole yr 2017 is usd rm 8.40...eps is the whole 1 yr rm 3.10 mah....!!
THIS ALREADY DISCLOSE HY ANNUAL REPORT.

Now crack spread of 2018 should average usd 7.00 or more, not too far mah, on top of that the crude price diff between brent and wti is usd 6 per barrel...this can easily contribute usd 2 to 3 per barrel margin to hengyuan mah....!!

Thus hengyuan avg conservative eps could be rm 2.00 for 2018 loh...!!

With eps rm 2.00....Hengyuan TP rm 13.00 is not unreasonable loh..!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-26 17:57 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan report consistent eps exceeding rm 1.00 for consecutive 3 yrs....with the last yr 2017 eps rm 3.10 in 2017 even exceed nestle eps rm 2.75 mah....!!

If 2018, can report eps can exceed rm 2.00 this means hy consistent loh....!!

If that happen it should deserve an initial rerating to PE 6 to 8x mah......!!

Ask yourself what is PE of petdag, petchem, dlady, nestle leh ??
Their PE in the region of 16 to 40x mah....!!

Thus PE 7x for hengyuan very conservative mah....!!

Posted by SpicyMcDeluxe > 2018-04-26 17:58 | Report Abuse

Meanwhile, Tony Stark Dies In Avengers Infinity War

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-26 18:01 | Report Abuse

Like i say b4..crack spread like USD 10 to 16...is like ur grandfather strike lottery mah.....!!

Always remember consistent USD 7 crack spread per barrel....is consider good mah....!!
the avg crack spread of whole yr 2017 is usd rm 8.40...eps is the whole 1 yr rm 3.10 mah....!!
Now crack spread of 2018 should average usd 7.00 or more, not too far mah, on top of that the crude price diff between brent and wti is usd 6 per barrel...this can easily contribute usd 2 to 3 per barrel margin to hengyuan mah....!!

Thus hengyuan avg conservative eps could be rm 2.00 for 2018 loh...!!


Posted by probability > Apr 26, 2018 05:41 PM | Report Abuse

despite hurricane uplifting the crack spread by 10 USD/brl to 16 USD/brl....HY CCS margin is 7USD/brl for 2017....

this year no Hurricane...crack drop at least 4 USD/barrel...and no FIFO margins...

7 - 4 = 3 USD/brl CCS margin for 2018

meaning CCS margin would go below 2016 level of 5.5 USD/brl (reported in 2017 annual report)....

Posted by probability > 2018-04-26 18:06 | Report Abuse

but the problem is...

just one more dip....just one more dip by 1 USD/brl, eps will dip below a level where they cant even afford to give 2 cent dividend.

CHINA is flooding the market with refined fuel exports...bashinh, vaporizing the regional refining margins in just a flash. More export quotas are being issued...for the same teapot refiners in Shandong.

Future is totally bleak for HY...totally bleak.




Posted by stockraider > Apr 26, 2018 05:57 PM | Report Abuse

Hengyuan report consistent eps exceeding rm 1.00 for consecutive 3 yrs....with the last yr 2017 eps rm 3.10 in 2017 even exceed nestle eps rm 2.75 mah....!!

If 2018, can report eps can exceed rm 2.00 this means hy consistent loh....!!

If that happen it should deserve an initial rerating to PE 6 to 8x mah......!!

Ask yourself what is PE of petdag, petchem, dlady, nestle leh ??
Their PE in the region of 16 to 40x mah....!!

Thus PE 7x for hengyuan very conservative mah....!!

Posted by SpicyMcDeluxe > 2018-04-26 18:07 | Report Abuse

Shell earnings surge as oil prices rebound

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-26 18:09 | Report Abuse

rubbishloh...look at the balance sheet....there have increased cash and reduce borrowing by almost rm 600m, this is real cash mah....!!
This is really the operating strength of HY loh...!!

Now crack spread of 2018 should average usd 7.00 or more, not too far mah, on top of that the crude price diff between brent and wti is usd 6 per barrel...this can easily contribute usd 2 to 3 per barrel margin to hengyuan mah....!!

Thus hengyuan avg conservative eps could be rm 2.00 for 2018 loh...!!




Posted by probability > Apr 26, 2018 06:06 PM | Report Abuse

but the problem is...

just one more dip....just one more dip by 1 USD/brl, eps will dip below a level where they cant even afford to give 2 cent dividend.

CHINA is flooding the market with refined fuel exports...bashinh, vaporizing the regional refining margins in just a flash. More export quotas are being issued...for the same teapot refiners in Shandong.

Future is totally bleak for HY...totally bleak.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-26 18:12 | Report Abuse

MEANING WHATEVER HY LOSE OUT ON CRACK SPREAD OF USD 1.50 PER BARREL....THEY HAVE MORE THAN MAKE UP BY THE ADDITIONAL CRUDE OIL DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN BRENT V WTI OF MORE THAN USD 6 PER BARREL LOH....!!


Posted by stockraider > Apr 26, 2018 06:09 PM | Report Abuse X

rubbishloh...look at the balance sheet....there have increased cash and reduce borrowing by almost rm 600m, this is real cash mah....!!
This is really the operating strength of HY loh...!!

Now crack spread of 2018 should average usd 7.00 or more, not too far mah, on top of that the crude price diff between brent and wti is usd 6 per barrel...this can easily contribute usd 2 to 3 per barrel margin to hengyuan mah....!!

Thus hengyuan avg conservative eps could be rm 2.00 for 2018 loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-26 18:14 | Report Abuse

START ACCUMULATING HY CHEAP TOMORROW...IN ORDER NOT TO MISSED OUT LOH...!!
DO NOT MISSED THIS WONDERFUL OPPORTUNITY MAH....!!

Posted by stockraider > Apr 26, 2018 06:09 PM | Report Abuse X

rubbishloh...look at the balance sheet....there have increased cash and reduce borrowing by almost rm 600m, this is real cash mah....!!
This is really the operating strength of HY loh...!!

Now crack spread of 2018 should average usd 7.00 or more, not too far mah, on top of that the crude price diff between brent and wti is usd 6 per barrel...this can easily contribute usd 2 to 3 per barrel margin to hengyuan mah....!!

Thus hengyuan avg conservative eps could be rm 2.00 for 2018 loh...!!

Posted by BursaTornado > 2018-04-26 18:29 | Report Abuse

Aiyo, who in this forum care if Tony Stuck die in Avenger.

Kikiki

@Spicy

Posted by Sharewitch > 2018-04-26 18:34 | Report Abuse

Hello, proposed dividends 43.5 cents, what's he talking about cannot give 2 cents dividends.
Look at cme future, since when is the crack spread usd4?
He is biasly putting down HY. He is a shorties or need to buy cheap?

Posted by dompeilee > 2018-04-26 18:39 | Report Abuse

Shell over the course of its 50 year listing history has never exceeded 12.00 in price,despite fluctuations in refining profit margin. Time to come down to reality.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-26 18:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Tongkarat > 2018-04-26 18:58 | Report Abuse

Come come come.... Light blue eye all the way

Posted by Tongkarat > 2018-04-26 18:59 | Report Abuse

Light blue eye..... Ini Kali lahhhh

Posted by Tongkarat > 2018-04-26 19:04 | Report Abuse

Light blue eye...light blue eye.... light blue eye

Posted by GoodBoy > 2018-04-26 19:09 | Report Abuse

Shareholders fight with BOD in the AGM ... don't approve their directors fees ... let them propose ESOS ... 10% 20% 30% ESOS at RM3 ... very good news for shareholders then ...

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-26 19:12 | Report Abuse

dragon...you not fair referee...u bear referee.

got to shift house., don't built your house here. No oomp here.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-26 19:26 | Report Abuse

>>>
dompeilee Shell over the course of its 50 year listing history has never exceeded 12.00 in price,despite fluctuations in refining profit margin. Time to come down to reality.
26/04/2018 18:39<<<


This was highlighted before.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-26 19:27 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Tongkarat > 2018-04-26 19:27 | Report Abuse

One way...one voice... one force.... Light blue eye

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-26 19:33 | Report Abuse

What might Buffett have said about Hengyuan?

This is a too hard to value company. He will just drop this into the "too hard to analyse" tray and look for stocks that are easier to value.

Posted by joekit > 2018-04-26 19:36 | Report Abuse

eh...tong karat...r u the strong PH supporter who walk from kuantan to putrajaya?

Posted by 10154675247544965 > 2018-04-26 20:16 | Report Abuse

If share buy back 10 % assuming rm 8 per share. Then 30 Million share x rm 8 = rm 240 Million

The company value will be up by 10%.

Only left 120 Million share free flow

Buy TP : RM15

Posted by Tongkarat > 2018-04-26 20:19 | Report Abuse

Aiyoooo joekit....thats not me laaa....aiyoyo