the incident had affected the supply of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel across the four states, which prompted the emergency declaration. The four states get a quarter of their fuel supply from the Whiting refinery.
The federal government declared a regional emergency in the states of Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Wisconsin following a fire that broke out at a BP-owned refinery in Whiting, Indiana
What will likely crack spread for gasoline, diessel and jet fuel tomorrow!?
Petronm and HRC refinery make money from the refining margin (diesel, mogas, jet fuel ,LPG , naphtha, and Residue /fuel oil price different against the feed crude)
In fact HRC and Petronm need to hedge on their crude to prevent inventories loss/gain when crude price sudden U turn .
Higher crude also cost them in higer working capital. (High inventories)
It is good for refinery if crude cost can be lower but cracks spread remain at high double digit figure.
Petronm management trying very hard to explained in the AGM whatever commodity hedging loss/gain will be cancel each either with physical revenue or purchase increase/reduce. If this is true then this provision of hedging/derivatives loss of RM166.8 million will be fully written back in Q3.
Or in other word Petronm Q2 profit before tax should be RM (240,671,000 + 166,799,000)
Rabbit2 @Sslee Agreed that derivative losses will be reversed but it's not a provision. It is merely a marked to market losses as at end June to reflect the current contract price in the market. This will eventually be reversed and replaced with actual periodical settlement.
If HRC and Petron consistently apply its hedging strategy and based on today's 29 August cut off, most losses will be reversed and likely there is a marked to market gain by now.
Accounting standards are trying hard to force all companies to reflect their numbers based on current fair values but it comes with unintended consequences in particular to those companies that are entering derivatives for hedging purposes.
If both HRC and Petron apply new hedge accounting rules under MFRS 9, these marked to market losses/gains could possibly be reflected under other comprehensive income instead of profit or loss.
Rabbit2 @Probability Yes. There are many ways. You have the choice of either applying mfrs 139 (old) or mfrs 9 (new but irrevocable) hedge accounting. Or for simplicity doing natural hedge and ignore about the accounting impact. 29/08/2022 11:05 PM
TQVM Mike and Rabbits2 for confirmation that Petronm Q2 profit before tax should be RM (240,671,000 + 166,799,000)
The unrealized loss (RM166,799,000) on derivatives can be taken out from P&L and reflected under Other comprehensive income/(expense):Items that will be reclassified to profit or loss:
I will top up my Petronm today. Mike should I sell Insas to top up Petrronm?
If u do not understand the complicated story from sslee and probability, just follow otbkyy. They have done good job analyzing the stock. Uncle is buying. Buy.
Hengyuan was up a lot last week before QR Expectation is very high Share price is not as strong as a few years ago I suspect the funds that push its share price last week would sell on news after QR
Seeing that a lot of subscribers and readers here are stuck at high stock prices like hiaptek, Ays, MSc (miss universe) and some planting stocks, etc., and now what you see is Hengyuan. otb has taken you to hell. kyy said some important points this time, sense of responsibility! At least he still has a little conscience. These stocks are recommended to you by otb. But just when the price is high. Good luck to u all ,don’t wait target price of $ 19.20 ,he con u only .
petron's result considered excellent? Yet, price hardly move much.....how much profit would be needed to move HY? interesting indeed.......but, the catalyst is solid......strong spreads amidst tight supplies...unless russian sanctions are lifted, the oil companies should continue to reap good profits
Overall Bursa value is crucial to see through the momentum but unfortunately it did not sustain above 2B. The stock volume is decreasing too. Buy prior to the news excitement and SELL before announcement made regardless the results outcome will never go wrong. The Jackpot was created for those who bought far below 5. And those who stranded much higher should have taken the great opportunity to liquidate much earlier. Anyone who are still keen to buy should wait after the final announcement. All is done deal even though it can be super fantastic numbers. Market is softening yet again.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Ahahah
453 posts
Posted by Ahahah > 2022-08-29 21:22 | Report Abuse
@Boomberg, where do you get the result?