Posted by probability > 2022-09-11 16:03 | Report Abuse

Column: U.S. diesel stocks critically low after failing to recover over

www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-diesel-stocks-critically-low-after-failing-recover-over-summer-kemp-2022-09-09/

LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. inventories of diesel and other distillate fuel oils are now critically low after failing to recover during the summer driving season.

The shortage will keep upward pressure on diesel refining margins and prices unless and until the global economy and distillate consumption slows significantly.

Distillate inventories amounted to just 112 million barrels on Sept. 2, according to high-frequency data published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


Stocks are down from 134 million barrels at the same point in 2021 and at the lowest level for the time of year since 1996 ("Weekly petroleum status report", EIA, Sept. 8).

Stocks have barely recovered from a low of 104 million barrels in early May despite large volumes of crude processing over the summer as refiners met seasonal demand from motorists for gasoline.

The seasonal accumulation of distillate inventories since the end of June has been one of the smallest in the last 30 years, pointing to a persistent underlying shortage (https://tmsnrt.rs/3B26Xbm).

Domestic consumption is muted and running around 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average.

But exports remain high as refiners respond to shortages around the world caused by the rapid rebound from the pandemic, disruptions caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and China's coronavirus lockdowns.

Net exports were almost 1.3 million bpd in the five weeks ending on Sept. 2 compared with around 0.8 million bpd at the same point in 2021.

U.S. refiners have a window to boost inventories over the next few weeks by prolonging high crude processing rates for longer after the summer than normal and switching units from max-gasoline to max-distillate mode.

But the shortage of distillate fuel oils is worldwide with stocks at their lowest level for more than a decade in Europe and Asia.

Europe's distillate inventories are down 68 million barrels compared with 2021 at the lowest seasonal level since 2002.

Only a global slowdown in manufacturing and freight transportation will rebuild stocks to more comfortable levels and abate the upward pressure on refinery margins and oil prices.

.......

Keyword - ONLY A 'GLOBAL' SLOWDOWN

Posted by probability > 2022-09-11 16:03 | Report Abuse

@extreme scenario of 50% hedging

Rock bottom EPS analysis
.........................

let us assume as extreme conservative scenario where 50% of HY throughput is hedged where they will only reflect hedge margin at 10 USD/brl, with the balance free to capture market margin

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 50.36/brl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 38.40/brl
3. Gasoline at 35% yield, cracks USD 7.77/brl
3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7.77/brl

Gross profit from (Hedged) portion:
..............................

= (10.7 million x 50%) x (10 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 238 million MYR .....(1)



Gross profit (UN-HEDGED) portion:
............................

Refining margin/brl:

= (0.46 x 50.4 ) + (0.07 x 38.40) + (0.35 x 7.77) + (0.12 x 7.77)
= (23.18 + 2.70 + 2.72 + 0.93)
= US $ 29.5 / brl

Gross profit:
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (29.5 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 702 million MYR ......(2)



Total gross profit (1) + (2)
= 238 + 702
= 940 million MYR

PBT = 840 million
PAT = 638 million
EPS = 2.12

Posted by Rabbit2 > 2022-09-11 16:04 | Report Abuse

All this forward derivative transactions are entered via over-the-counter OTC through brokers. well known financial institutions are part of the game. There's contract binding each other. People seldom called it private and it's also the first time I heard.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-11 16:12 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-11 16:13 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-11 16:21 | Report Abuse

Correct mah!
Monday quickly go & check out what & how the Private Refining Margin Swap is structure mah!

No point....complain & buat hal....buat apa leh ?!

Must tackle this pressing point mah!

U investigate for yourself mah!

Posted by stockraider > 16 minutes ago | Report Abuse

U should not attack Raider mah!
Go & investigate the Private Refining Margin Swap Contract Dulu mah!
Go & find out more 1st loh!

Posted by information > 2022-09-11 16:24 | Report Abuse

Email address : HRCPD-Corporate-Affairs@hrc.com.my

........

Dear Chairman and Board of Directors,

I am an investor of Hengyuan, I have xxx shares in my trading account.

Please help to get your accountant and lawyer to trace and take legal action on a person with the id: stockraider on i3 website below:

https://klse1.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/stockraider.jsp

he had been making serious allegation and spreading lies with malicious intention, e.g below:

Posted by stockraider > Sep 11, 2022 3:50 PM | Report Abuse

Ini Info baru mah!

Lu tau boh ?

ACCORDING RAIDER SIFU SENIOR ANALYST & CONFIRMED BY 009 INVESTIGATION TEAM, THEY HAVE INFO TO SUSPECT , THAT THE COUNTER PARTY IS A PRIVATE CHINESE PARTY OPERATING IN SPORE WHO HAVE A VERY CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE HENGYUAN CHINA OWNER LOH!


Thank you.

Yours Sincerely,
Your name.

.....

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-11 16:31 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-11 16:32 | Report Abuse

Boloh loh!

If u want to write to Hengyuan.....why don't u quickly check with them how is their Private Refining Margin SWAP done leh ??

Do something productive mah!

Correct mah!
Monday quickly go & check out what & how the Private Refining Margin Swap is structure mah!

No point....complain & buat hal....buat apa leh ?!

Must tackle this pressing point mah!

U investigate for yourself mah!

Posted by stockraider > 16 minutes ago | Report Abuse

U should not attack Raider mah!
Go & investigate the Private Refining Margin Swap Contract Dulu mah!
Go & find out more 1st loh!


information

303 posts

Posted by information > 4 minutes ago | Re

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-11 16:32 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-11 16:35 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-11 16:35 | Report Abuse

Be specific....checkout the Refining Swap Contract mah!

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse

“Hedging Agreement” means any Swap Contract relating to Crude Oil, Products, other feedstocks, other refined petroleum products or other hydrocarbons (including without limitation any such agreement relating to Crack Spreads, time spreads and grade differentials), entered into by a Person in the ordinary course of business and for non-speculative purposes, that xxxxxx or mitigates risks to which such Person or any of its Subsidiaries has actual exposure.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-11 16:42 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-11 16:50 | Report Abuse

@Mikecyc, those 1:1, 3:2:1 are simply rules of thumb based on the yield of the products the concern refinery produce

example 3:2:1 came about by the logic that 2/3 of the yield is gasoline and balance 1/3 is diesel

the most accurate form is as per below details for HY:

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-09-02-story-h1627801128-HENGYUAN_How_to_calculate_its_refinery_margin_Why_share_price_hesitatin.jsp

Posted by Mikecyc > Sep 11, 2022 4:42 PM | Report Abuse

Haha that why I had posted earlier.. too many variances or factors :

When is the Contract is entered ? 12 months ? 24 months ?


Crack Spread : 1:1 ? 3:2:1 ? 5:3:2 ?

Interval / monthly swap ?

Only the Owner know …

Posted by probability > 2022-09-11 16:51 | Report Abuse

really have the same brain level of raider to call it virtual refinery?..what a brain damaged individuals..

Posted by qqq3333 > Sep 11, 2022 4:50 PM | Report Abuse

if every refinery go short on the crack spread contracts, who is on the other side? is there enough volume to make the exchange viable?

or all just virtual refineries playing computer games with each other?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-11 16:52 | Report Abuse

In other words, a 3-2-1 crack spread is the difference between the cost of three barrels of crude and the sum of two barrels of gasoline plus one barrel of diesel.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-11 16:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-11 16:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-11 17:06 | Report Abuse

Very Good Points loh!

Btw...it is not an exchange....it is an individual counter party....having a private deal with Hengyuan mah!

Who is the sooohaaiiii counter party dare to bet one to one... with a refinery like HRC, on Refining margin on one to one bet leh ??

What is there for them, what is counter party their competitive edge over hengyuan leh ?

Posted by qqq3333 > 7 minutes ago | Report Abuse

if every refinery go short on the crack spread contracts, who is on the other side? is there enough volume to make the exchange viable?

Posted by qqq3333 > 7 minutes ago | Report Abuse

if every refinery go short on the crack spread contracts, who is on the other side? is there enough volume to make the exchange viable?

Posted by qqq3333 > 7 minutes ago | Report Abuse

if every refinery go short on the crack spread contracts, who is on the other side? is there enough volume to make the exchange viable?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-11 17:11 | Report Abuse

Understanding the Cost of Hedging

www.treasuryandrisk.com/2021/10/13/understanding-the-cost-of-hedging/?slreturn=20220811021228

Why Hedge Performance Is Not the Right Measure of Cost
.......................

Individuals less familiar with hedging may think that the cost of a hedge is equal to the monetary gain or loss upon settlement of the derivative. This is not an accurate assessment, as it ignores the fact that hedging is ultimately meant to reduce risk and uncertainty.

Consider a company that is planning a bond transaction. In one month, the organization will issue a $1 billion, 10-year bond at 3.5 percent. The treasurer is worried that interest rates may rise over the next month, making the bond more expensive than expected, so she decides to partially hedge that risk using $500 million worth of 10-year treasury locks. If rates rise, the derivative will be an asset that offsets the increased interest rate at issuance, reducing the financial impact that market shift has on the company’s new debt.

By contrast, if rates fall, the derivative will become a liability; the bond will be priced better than expected, and the derivative will look like an unnecessary cost. Suppose rates fall by 50 basis points (bps) from the time the hedge is executed until the time the bond is issued. The bond issuance will be executed at 3.0 percent, and the derivative will be a liability of roughly $2.5 million. However, that is only half the story. Amortizing the termination value of the hedge over the life of the financing results in an effective cost of debt of roughly 3.25 percent, which is still better than the original expectation of 3.5 percent.

Some executives facing such a scenario will view the hedge as costly because it ultimately was not needed. This is not the right perspective. The purpose of the hedge was to reduce risk in future outcomes, giving the company greater certainty around cost of capital planning. Think about the opposite scenario: If rates had risen 50 bps instead of falling, the hedge would have been an asset worth roughly $2.5 million, and the effective cost of debt would have been roughly 3.75 percent—higher than the original expectation because only half of the issuance was hedged. In this case, would the treasurer be happy that the hedge was an asset, even if the cost of financing was higher than anticipated?

In both scenarios, the hedge serves its purpose by reducing the potential volatility of future issuance outcomes and narrowing the band of possible issuance rates. By keeping in mind that derivatives are meant to reduce risk, companies can move away from measuring the costs of their hedging programs using gains and losses.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-11 17:12 | Report Abuse

Cost of hedging only shows the potential loss / gain on the 'hedged instruments' in the future in OCI, but it does not show the reverse gain / loss on 'hedged items' that negates this as it takes place in parallel in the future....


hedged instruments and hedged items always goes on opposite direction to offset each other - that is the basic fundamental of hedging.

Posted by wailaidis > 2022-09-11 17:12 | Report Abuse

some people talks like they are making lots of money in the stock market and yet doesn't have balls to show...they keep on bashing those who are actually trying to provide information for the public to decide for themselves...haha...

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-11 17:23 | Report Abuse

Wei Yuan Dynasty no more how can be wet wet. Dry and high lah. Harga saham pun turun mah. You sure you are wet wet now kah. Never dry since 2017 kah. Haiyoh. Correct?


Posted by deMusangking > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

Posted by UlarSawa > 16 hours ago | Report Abuse
You want history to repeat then must have all the previous Super Promoter join forces leh. Haiyoh. Correct?


Aiyoh!
No need Super Promoter lah!

For Hengyuanese are smarties,
For Hengyuanese sure win win,
For Hengyuanese sure wet wet song song!

haha

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-11 17:26 | Report Abuse

Yuan Dynasty Mongolian gambled until lost the whole dynasty leh. Yuanese mana ada heng lah. Boh heng lah. Yuanese paperloss over a billion tikam big or small leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by deMusangking > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

Aiyah,
What is wrong with "speculative or gambling"???

For Chinese like speculative gambling
As they have the gambling gene!

For Chinese that gamble smart
Are Hengyuanese!!!

haha

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-11 17:28 | Report Abuse

Public forum ada promoters and ada penkritik mah. You decide to follow promoters you buy lah. You decide to follow penkritik you sell lah. Ini macam only lah. If you dont want to follow both of them. Then you toss coin to decide lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


wailaidis

some people talks like they are making lots of money in the stock market and yet doesn't have balls to show...they keep on bashing those who are actually trying to provide information for the public to decide for themselves...haha...

13 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-11 17:30 | Report Abuse

Like this banker long kah. Else why HY loss over a billion leh. Haiyoh. Correct?


Posted by qqq3333 > 7 minutes ago | Report Abuse

if every refinery go short on the crack spread contracts, who is on the other side? is there enough volume to make the exchange viable?

22 minutes ago

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-11 17:30 | Report Abuse

qqq3,
That silly question is for panlai stockraider, you are not yet as panlai as stockraider. Stockraider is now advance into virtual world with virtual refinery, virtual hedge and he is a virtual billionaire.

Stockraider,
Can you slow down, keep your mouth shut and put on your thinking cap for a while to answer my 2 layman questions below:

If you hedge the refining margin at USD 12 - 20 per barrel from month july onward till maybe beyond 2022 up to 2023

So when Q2 end 30/06/2022 the spot month and future month refining margin is now at USD 30 - 25 per barrel.

How you going to capture this unrealised loss in your Q2 account?

Is this unrealised loss a great concerned?

Stockrader replied:
Your question 2 is a mystery to me....how can u claim your refining margin is usd 25 to 30, when your current crack spread is only from usd 2 to 5 leh⁷ ? How did u derive this high margin USD 25 margin....is it a guesstimate or from management disclosure leh ?

Stockraider,
Q2 result is for financial end 30/06/2022.
So go and check on 30/06/2022 what is the refining margin spot month and future month.

So my layman question.
If you hedge the refining margin at USD 12 - 20 per barrel from month july onward till maybe beyond 2022 up to 2023.

And current crack spread is only from usd 2 to 5 leh then how much money your refining magin swap contracts maturity on Sept will earned?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-11 17:31 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-11 17:34 | Report Abuse

Noble banklap bcos of gambling lah. Are you sure the company banklap due to hedging the commodities. Haiyoh. Correct?

qqq3333

big commodity traders like Nobel also can go bankrupt. They also supposed to have hedged their operations.

44 minutes ago


qqq3333

big commodity traders like Nobel also can go bankrupt. They also supposed to have hedged their operations.

44 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-11 17:37 | Report Abuse

Cannot like that say leh. They are more like investors leh. Dont sell untill the results keluar one leh. They are not like kakijudi leh. But one thing when harga saham naik pun jual juga no need to wait QR out leh. Play safe punya investors lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


qqq3333

Posted by stockraider > 22 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Very Good Points loh!
==========


bottom line what I want to say very simple...............want to trade, go trade, choose your timing, don't believe anything in the forum , don't see next results, .every thing u need to know already in the charts.........................

52 seconds ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-11 17:38 | Report Abuse

Unlikely to happen as many 2017 Super promotera takda join this time as promoter. So susah want to go back to the previous goreng price. Haiyoh. Correct?


qqq3333

at least now is better timing than first day of last results.

as for this possibility................if I remember correctly...........this possibility was in this forum in 2017 promoting from 7 to 18 and from 18 to 7.................go figure. But 2017 is a freak show never to be repeated.

9 seconds ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-11 17:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-11 17:44 | Report Abuse

Gambling sound like very low class kah. Hedging sound more like professional higher class kah. Thats why amgmoh lang like to tipu using the word hedging lor. Haiyoh. Correct?


qqq3333

UlarSawa > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Noble banklap bcos of gambling lah

======


big companies always says there are hedging one la..............after all, hedging is approved word, gambling not approved word.

4 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-11 17:46 | Report Abuse

You see angmoh minum hi-tea. Wa lang minum kopi. Same same mah. Why the angmoh make it so high class leh. Gambling and Hedging pun sama juga. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-11 18:04 | Report Abuse

Dunno lah. Now the world is divided into 2 lah. One is angmoh gang. Another one Chinese gang. See who win see who lose at the end. Haiyoh. Correct?

qqq3333

ular...........angmoh century no more...............now its China century.

5 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-11 18:07 | Report Abuse

So how. Long weekend debate at here between the old Superpromoters and new penkritik from old promoter juga. Still need decide tomolo green or red lah. Ular is think is green again. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by AlsvinChangan > 2022-09-11 18:12 | Report Abuse

FOR SALE HY-CW88 30M @ RM0.30 per unit mature 30/09/2022 American Stlyo concevsion 5 to ONE STRIKE POT RM 5.30 CASH ONLY

CAN make money?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-11 20:51 | Report Abuse

Aahhh....excuse me, how come I didn't get to buy HY at 4.00 last Friday?????? MM you promised! So disappointed now......sob!

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-11 20:58 | Report Abuse

MM, shifting goal posts and making promises you cannot keep....it's a No, no......

And now you want to give more new datelines............hope and pray all your wishes turns out the opposite way.

Didin't get HY at 4.00 last Friday........sob, sob!

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-11 21:00 | Report Abuse

MM said hope to rally back to 5, how to buy at 4.00 leh? She lied........still didn't get HY at 4.00 last Friday.......so disappointed.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-09-11 21:04 | Report Abuse

Aiyaa no worries will get rm4 after xdate

Bad fundamental stocks (refinery/glove) always collapse after xdate

Posted by Sharewire > 2022-09-11 21:12 | Report Abuse

Hedging is not gambling but to protect future profit.
Based real product.
Petronm and hengyuan suffer heavy losses due to record spread leg at30++.
With leg spread drop to zero ,future will show future gains.

qqq3333

people says they have hedged for 24months, u assume they make super profits for 24 months................................that is abuse of the word hedged. This is not a virtual refinery with no physical deliveries.

whether people long or short the crack spread contracts also u don't know...............let me put it to sslee/probability............u know nothing except there is a word hedged in the public documents some where.

4 hours ago

Posted by Sharewire > 2022-09-11 21:15 | Report Abuse

Heng and pet will doing hedge at the highest 30++ as in your lifetime Nobody has see that at sky high.It would tempting to hedge at 30++ to protect future profit.Qtr3 will show monsters profit for 2 year !

Posted by Sharewire > 2022-09-11 21:26 | Report Abuse

Remind you hengyuan report qtr2 600 million profit and pay tax200million.Please do not try to mislead retailer!

MoneyMakers

Simple layman

If HY hedge contracts all expired in June, Q2 would’ve reported (-400Mil) loss

If HY hedge contracts expire monthly/bi-monthly, will see 1.07Bil hedging loss realised Q3

Posted by Sharewire > 2022-09-11 21:30 | Report Abuse

Other conmen say hengyuan shiphoned money
Make yourself proud of yourself ! be true to retailer!
Your parents don't teach you this and how you teach your children ?Be proud of yourself.Dont be a conmen

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-09-11 21:32 | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo 200Mil tax in QR just ‘tax allowance’..havent pay yet leh

If Q2 600Mil profit but Q3 (-600Mil) loss, yr-end full annual report where got pay any tax aiyoyo

Posted by Sharewire > 2022-09-11 22:14 | Report Abuse

qqqq3333 why use different I'd qqq12345.
Why !

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-11 22:36 | Report Abuse

Steel Prices Could Be Due For A Rally As Manufacturers Halt Production
By Ag Metal Miner - Sep 10, 2022, 2:00 PM CDT

Some good news for those trapped in steel counters

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-11 22:52 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh after heated argument non at here dare to predict tomolo green or red kah. Then you all argue for fun kah. Ular predict green leh. Anyone one to bet green or red or not. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-11 22:55 | Report Abuse

They hedge wrongly lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

qqq12345

Lehman Event” Looms For Europe As Energy Companies Face $1.5T In Margin Calls
By Josh Owens - Sep 06, 2022, 10:00 AM

32 minutes ago