Rock bottom EPS analysis .........................
let us assume as extreme conservative scenario where 50% of HY throughput is hedged where they will only reflect hedge margin at 10 USD/brl, with the balance free to capture market margin
1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 50.36/brl 2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 38.40/brl 3. Gasoline at 35% yield, cracks USD 7.77/brl 3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7.77/brl
Gross profit from (Hedged) portion: ..............................
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (10 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD) = 238 million MYR .....(1)
One more thing...people need to take note loh...!!
Even if Nymex....has high future Gasoline & Diesel Price...it does not translate to high margin for hengyuan mah, bcos the govt do not use USA & Europe nymex future price for gasoline & diesel....in fixing the selling price of the refinery mah!
The Govt use Crude oil price, exchange rate and MOGAS 92 crack spread to fix the refinery fix selling price mah!
Boss ini rehim azzez masuk kerja. Ikut arahan supervisour.ok @stockraider@ stockraider Eh stockraider PU KI LOO PUNYA EMAK Tak tahu jawab ah...Yes or no
stockraiderTheLiar
@ stockraider@ stockraider I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views . In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below: Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother?
Boss ini rehim azzez masuk kerja. Ikut arahan supervisour.ok @stockraider@ stockraider Eh stockraider PU KI LOO PUNYA EMAK Tak tahu jawab ah...Yes or no
stockraiderTheLiar
@ stockraider@ stockraider I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views . In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below: Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother?
Boss ini rehim azzez masuk kerja. Ikut arahan supervisour.ok @stockraider@ stockraider Eh stockraider PU KI LOO PUNYA EMAK Tak tahu jawab ah...Yes or no
stockraiderTheLiar
@ stockraider@ stockraider I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views . In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below: Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother?
Boss ini rehim azzez masuk kerja. Ikut arahan supervisour.ok @stockraider@ stockraider Eh stockraider PU KI LOO PUNYA EMAK Tak tahu jawab ah...Yes or no
stockraiderTheLiar
@ stockraider@ stockraider I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views . In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below: Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother?
Boss ini rehim azzez masuk kerja. Ikut arahan supervisour.ok @stockraider@ stockraider Eh stockraider PU KI LOO PUNYA EMAK Tak tahu jawab ah...Yes or no
stockraiderTheLiar
@ stockraider@ stockraider I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views . In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below: Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother?
Thus what is the relevant of the nymex high future Gasoline & Diesel Price leh?
It is for those who theoritically want to make money from hedging by buying....crude oil nymex future & hedge the position by selling the future price of gasoline & diesel in nymex loh!
As i says....although on paper ....this look attractive....but it is not always....end up profitable loh!
The REASONS why ?
2.Virtual Refinery Business model thru pure hedging & derivative loh! Do u notice that Hengyuan lose alot of monies consistently most of the time despite, mathematical computation on paper the derivative & hedge is highly profitable as per feedback of SSLEE and Probability leh ?
This is bcos the paper computation derivative & hedge shows profit do not reflect the reality situation & business dynamics of the trade loh! Reasons are as follows loh:
The Virtual Refinery Purchase its future crude by purchasing from NYMEX & compute it sells on Nymex sell price of Petrol & Diesel which showed a good profit when doing its hedge but how come this trade fail & registered big losses at the end leh ?
1. The mkt is very dynamic loh! On paper u may see big virtual profit by hedging future crude purchase & future sell of petrol & diesel end products....but when time come for settlement in turnout to be a loss loh! Why leh the complete hedge trade of buying & selling here cannot convert to a easy profit, like paper indicated leh ? a. This is bcos the movement of future crude purchase price, do not completely correlate to the selling future price of petrol & diesel price due to huge mkt volatility mah! Just within a day the business dynamic may change loh! Like within 1 day the Crude Price go up 10% whereas the Petrol & Diesel selling future price did not move at all or vice versa loh! b. The trade initiated are pure paper swap with no delivery of physical goods, thats why it may not reflect the real dynamic of a real physical refinery mah! c. Even it involve actual delivery of the commodities, there are extra cost & logistic to bring this commodities for processing to convert it to a profit mah! d. Thus the virtual refinery of Hengyuan business model has shown consistent losses bcos of this challenges discussed above loh!
Remember even if there is any hedging gain due to the hedge will be use to covered more than Rm 1.3b hengyuan unrealized hedging losses mah!
Thus with current physical low crack spread MOGAS 92.....the low margin will unlikely to translate into any good operating profit for hengyuan in q3 loh!
Maybe range 4.20 to 4.80 bah. Can cross baru talk leh. Ular not God also leh. Ular TP PE 1.5 to 2.0 leh. 4.2 to 5.96 leh. If hit 4.00 then too lao kui liao leh. Haiyoh. Correct?
qqq12345
Ular.....Hy may be due for a rebound but which comes first, 4 or 5? market turn south, 4 will win.
All support by facts & figures thru very deep research mah!
Just be very careful loh!
Raider never bluff u mah!
Posted by BobAxelrod > 17 seconds ago | Report Abuse
I hope Raider is successful to crash the price to below 4.00 with his lies. Then he can meet up with MM to enjoy the celebrations. Raider can taste the chocolate from her cracks (pun intended) And we can collect more cheap HY...
what a state of chronic paranoia due to past volatility on earnings of refinery
one shall talk about sustainability of earnings when stocks are trading above PE 20 may be..or the least PE 10
panicking now for a stock that barely moved up from its historic avg low?
refinery stock like HY only needs 13 USD/brl avg refining margin to deliver EPS above RM 1 consistently
now its averaging above 26 USD/brl
and we dont need RM 1 EPS per qtr to justify current price, even 40 cents consistently would do...
there are too many structural changes GLOBALLY that indicates constraints will remain due to shortage in global refining capacity and takes years (more than 5 years to build a refinery and investors are not keen despite high margin currently) unlike gloves for supply to catch up with demand...
its earnings can certainly be volatile, but the mean avg of the crack is expected to be significantly higher than previous years as intermittent shortage due to refinery maintenance, break down etc is high....
as such the odds of margin spiking intermittently is just too high going forward
this especially so considering russian sanction (which is the core of the structural changes that we are basing here)
keyword: sanctions are expected to last years ............................................
there are no such thing as a business being inherently sustainable without such structural factors...any business including tech stocks can have its margin eroded significantly within a short a time
The above simple example for ORANGES can be viewed as CRUDE OIL for HY where the hedging is done with the intention of going LONG (the higher the future price, the higher the gain)
For refined products hedge, it is for going SHORT, the higher the future price, the greater the loss.
The net effect of the above two is what reported by HY under their OCI.
The Cash Flow Hedge (CFH) in OCI shows the hedging gain / loss for the hedged position which are closed, but the corresponding physical market transaction (change in ownership of the goods) is yet to take place to deliver the available market gross profit which is then offset by this hedging gain / loss on CFH to give the P&L exactly as it has been hedged initially.
The Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR) on the other hand shows the hedging gain / loss for all the balance hedged position (yet to be closed) from the notional amount (refining margin swap contract RMSC), where the corresponding physical market transaction will take place within the maturity period (next 24 months) assuming the hedging positions are closed as per current spot rate.
As such, COHR is a highly hypothetical figure that changes significantly as per the market spot price of the commodity (mark-to-market) when the financial reporting period is closed.
............
Now that the refined oil products price (gasoline) had significantly retreated from the peak of 30th June, if it remains the same till end of Sept, Q3 will report huge gain on OCI
If prices of refined products relative to crude (the crack spread) are back to Q1 22, 30th Mar level, cost of hedging reserve shall be exactly back to the figure reported in Q1 22 results for Q3 22.
Why is Hengyuan head south despite an explosive set of Q2 2022 result? Imagine an EPS of RM222.49 per quarter and yet the share price tank instead of going limit up! I believe the reasons for the dismal share performance are : 1. The investing public are not convinced of the sustainability of its profit. 2. The monster RM1 Billion "other comprehensive Income /expense " item in the P&L which very few understand and very difficult to be convinced. 3. The worry in the investors mind is that the Q3 2022 PAT could be RM3, but the monster in 2 above could swell to RM2 billion? At end of the day the high EPS might not be enough to cover the monster item in 2 above. 4. No IB wants to touch the stock. Not even one is covering the stock now ! 5. I am told we have sifu here who is a remisier is unable to convinced his own broking house to cover the stock. How is he going to convinced others to buy this Gem ?? 6. The promoters are arguing with a wall of non believers who have differing views and seems to have different agenda. 7. The company is not interested to engage the shareholders and the investor relationship department is non existence. 8. To be fair , the overall market is shitty, and any good stock also face some kind of selling pressure. Perhaps it is a blessing in disguise for the believers and knowledgeable to collect at cheaper prices and wait for another explosive set of result? Hopefully Q3 2022 PAT will silent all critics ? Meanwhile , hang on to the stock until end of November for a happy 2023.
Steady ma this counter.... always 3-8 range ma... kaki judi like ular like this kind of counter ma.... kikikiki..... syndicated market ma... what do u expect???
I do not need the advice from stockraider after a long bad mouth from him on Hengyuan.
He said, Hengyuan is a con stock, Chinaman siphoned money from Malaysia to China. I had made a report on him to Hengyuan management, I hope a legal action is taken against him. FYI, stockraider is the one losing his money in 2017. I made million from Hengyuan in 2017. No reason that I take his advice. If he is so good, he should make more money than me in 2017. I am very disappointed with him. Hence I report his name to the management of Hengyuan and suggest to the management to take a legal action against him. I mean business.
Wei your gap bigger than dinasour leh. My one 4.2 to 5.96 pun kena labelled as an elephant gap leh. Haiyoh. Correct?
cK1973
Steady ma this counter.... always 3-8 range ma... kaki judi like ular like this kind of counter ma.... kikikiki..... syndicated market ma... what do u expect???
Really. Can show the report or not. Dont keep cakap Raider loss in 2017 goreng time leh. You all same group super promoter with sifu OTB Uncle Koon Sifu Yap dll sifu ada name takda name pun promote leh. Better reflect back ownself leh. Really pity Oil Specialist dunno at the end ada cutwin or not leh. You lucky cutwin get millions from other innocent suiyee leh. Dunno ada karma or not leh. Haiyoh. Correct?
Zhuge_Liang
I do not need the advice from stockraider after a long bad mouth from him on Hengyuan.
He said, Hengyuan is a con stock, Chinaman siphoned money from Malaysia to China. I had made a report on him to Hengyuan management, I hope a legal action is taken against him. FYI, stockraider is the one losing his money in 2017. I made million from Hengyuan in 2017. No reason that I take his advice. If he is so good, he should make more money than me in 2017. I am very disappointed with him. Hence I report his name to the management of Hengyuan and suggest to the management to take a legal action against him. I mean business.
Really mana satu remisier unable to convince the broking house to cover HY with explosive QR. You mean broking firm not confident the explosive QR is real one kah. No wonder hardly see ada TP from IB or broking firm lah. Anyone saw TP from IB or Broking firm kah. Haiyoh. Correct?
4. No IB wants to touch the stock. Not even one is covering the stock now ! 5. I am told we have sifu here who is a remisier is unable to convinced his own broking house to cover the stock. How is he going to convinced others to buy this Gem ??
@stockwin, in my opinion the likely strongest factor are the below two:
1) Majority - the greater market do not understand Cash Flow Hedge and Cost of hedging reserve as reported for a refinery who does refining margin swap contract under IFRS 9. These are forecasted derivative loss against mark-to-market margin in future as of 30th June.
Of course the market margin (in futures) as of end June 22 is extraordinarily high and thus you expect high hedging losses for gasoline going forward. But this over-turns completely when gasoline margin dives by end of July...
2) Market has a wrong perception on refining margin by linking the recent dive in Gasoline crack spread (before Q2 results) with HY complex refinery margin thats largely contributed by Diesel & Jet fuel
Why is Hengyuan head south despite an explosive set of Q2 2022 result? Imagine an EPS of RM222.49 per quarter and yet the share price tank instead of going limit up! I believe the reasons for the dismal share performance are : 1. The investing public are not convinced of the sustainability of its profit. 2. The monster RM1 Billion "other comprehensive Income /expense " item in the P&L which very few understand and very difficult to be convinced. 3. The worry in the investors mind is that the Q3 2022 PAT could be RM3, but the monster in 2 above could swell to RM2 billion? At end of the day the high EPS might not be enough to cover the monster item in 2 above. 4. No IB wants to touch the stock. Not even one is covering the stock now ! 5. I am told we have sifu here who is a remisier is unable to convinced his own broking house to cover the stock. How is he going to convinced others to buy this Gem ?? 6. The promoters are arguing with a wall of non believers who have differing views and seems to have different agenda. 7. The company is not interested to engage the shareholders and the investor relationship department is non existence. 8. To be fair , the overall market is shitty, and any good stock also face some kind of selling pressure. Perhaps it is a blessing in disguise for the believers and knowledgeable to collect at cheaper prices and wait for another explosive set of result? Hopefully Q3 2022 PAT will silent all critics ? Meanwhile , hang on to the stock until end of November for a happy 2023.
Ular - check dulu data for the past 3-year until now..... saya takde kata 2-9 sudah cun ma.... 3-8 mesti steady ma.... kaki judi suka ma.... jom pergi beli ekor dulu kat KTM.... kikikiki...
Wei your gap bigger than dinasour leh. My one 4.2 to 5.96 pun kena labelled as an elephant gap leh. Haiyoh. Correct?
I have written to the BOD of Hengyuan to request them to allow Investment Banks to visit the refinery plant in PD so that there is a coverage on Hengyuan by Investment Banks. Hope the BOD will agree to my suggestion.
Below are formula used by Malaysia government how much to pay the Retailers subsidy on Ron95 and diesel:
The petrol stations sell to you at ceiling price for RON95 and Diesel. The government top up (Pay subsidy to petrol stations) to the prior agreed retail price formula base on below formula:
Price of MOPS + Operation Cost + Profit Margin for Oil Companies + Profit Margin of Petrol Dealers + Alpha = PRICE OF PETROL PER LITER
MOPS – Which also stands for Means of Platts Singapore, is a calculation done by a company in Singapore called Platts. They provide different kinds of complex calculations and one of them is the price of refined oil.
A buyer of a finished (refined) oil product will refer to the MOPS index as a better indicator/benchmark of world prices rather than crude oil prices. The MOPS price typically has a premium over the crude oil prices. This is why the Malaysian government uses MOPS to determine fuel prices rather than NYMEX crude oil prices. Unfortunately, it is hard to track MOPS prices as individuals because the data is only available to those who purchase it, unlike the publicly available charts from the NYMEX.
Operation Cost – Multiple different costs (including transportation and marketing) which is a pre-set amount by the government at 9.54 cent per litre (Peninsular Malaysia), 8.98 cent per litre (Sabah), and 8.13 cent per litre (Sarawak).
Profit Margin for Oil Companies – This is when the Oil companies make money. Pre-set by the government at 5 cent per litre (petrol) and 2.25 cent per litre (diesel).
Profit Margin for Petrol Dealers – The petrol stations make more money per litre of fuel. Pre-set by the government at 12.19 cent per litre (petrol) and 7 cent per litre (diesel).
Alpha – The difference between the MOPS price and the actual price that is transacted between oil companies and refineries. This is set at 5 cents per litre (petrol) and 4 cent per litre (diesel).
Next comes sales tax and subsidies by the government. According to the Sales Tax Act 1972, the Malaysian government can collect a maximum sales tax of 58.62 cent per litre for petrol and 19.64 cent per litre for diesel. This takes place when the real price of petrol and diesel at the stations are lower than the fixed retail price. Then, the government can either take profit from this or revise the fuel price to be lower to remove the difference in price so that the savings can be for the people.
Apart from that, if the fixed retail price of the fuel is lower than the actual cost of the petrol and diesel at the pumps, the government pay a subsidy to petrol station for the price different.
Note: Najib also said with the present RON95 subsidies set at RM2. 50 per litre, it translates to about RM4,500 of annual subsidies if an individual were to fill up three full tanks in a month.22 Jun 2022
Not I complained you first leh. Someone complained Ular gap like elephant in 3 moons time leh. Ular gap only 4.20 to 5.96 only 42% leh. Your gap from 3 to 8 very big 167% mah. Look like dinasour leh. Haiyoh. Correct?
cK1973
Ular - check dulu data for the past 3-year until now..... saya takde kata 2-9 sudah cun ma.... 3-8 mesti steady ma.... kaki judi suka ma.... jom pergi beli ekor dulu kat KTM.... kikikiki...
Wei your gap bigger than dinasour leh. My one 4.2 to 5.96 pun kena labelled as an elephant gap leh. Haiyoh. Correct?
Should have sold earlier before or right after the profits announcement and dont have to comment what cracking figures nonsense here now. Learn and understand the stock market flow first before talk about home made figures here. Whinning day and night also no point. Coming to public steeet room talking thrash will not help the price stabilising back. If ones talking so highly about their background, should go and create a forum and identify yourself so that others can judge your cracking figures nonsense there. Hiding in public room spamming day and night and still failed big time will not serve you justice. Get ready and mentality bashing just incase if this thing revisiting back 4.
@ stockraider@ stockraider I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views . In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below: Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother? To tell you the truth my boss OTB asked me to spamming you. I need to obey or else I can’t receive my salary.
@ stockraider@ stockraider I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views . In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below: Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother? To tell you the truth my boss OTB asked me to spamming you. I need to obey or else I can’t receive my salary.
@ stockraider@ stockraider I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views . In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below: Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother? To tell you the truth my boss OTB asked me to spamming you. I need to obey or else I can’t receive my salary.
@ stockraider@ stockraider I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views . In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below: Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother? To tell you the truth my boss OTB asked me to spamming you. I need to obey or else I can’t receive my salary.
@ stockraider@ stockraider I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views . In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below: Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother? To tell you the truth my boss OTB asked me to spamming you. I need to obey or else I can’t receive my salary.
@ stockraider@ stockraider I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views . In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below: Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother? To tell you the truth my boss OTB asked me to spamming you. I need to obey or else I can’t receive my salary.
@ stockraider@ stockraider I Mahbob Rehman an ex professor from Dhaka University 100 % concurred with your views . In order for the public to believe that your stories are not pluck out of think air , can you kindly answer a YES or NO to my questions below: Did you or Did you not Mr stockraider commit inc*^es*t and FCUK your own mother? To tell you the truth my boss OTB asked me to spamming you. I need to obey or else I can’t receive my salary.
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
probability
14,463 posts
Posted by probability > 2022-09-10 10:51 | Report Abuse
Rock bottom EPS analysis
.........................
let us assume as extreme conservative scenario where 50% of HY throughput is hedged where they will only reflect hedge margin at 10 USD/brl, with the balance free to capture market margin
1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 50.36/brl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 38.40/brl
3. Gasoline at 35% yield, cracks USD 7.77/brl
3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7.77/brl
Gross profit from (Hedged) portion:
..............................
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (10 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 238 million MYR .....(1)
Gross profit (UN-HEDGED) portion:
............................
Refining margin/brl:
= (0.46 x 50.4 ) + (0.07 x 38.40) + (0.35 x 7.77) + (0.12 x 7.77)
= (23.18 + 2.70 + 2.72 + 0.93)
= US $ 29.5 / brl
Gross profit:
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (29.5 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 702 million MYR ......(2)
Total gross profit (1) + (2)
= 238 + 702
= 940 million MYR
PBT = 840 million
PAT = 638 million
EPS = 2.12