Posted by koonkoon > 2015-02-21 12:05 | Report Abuse

I must admit that when the price of Mudajaya and Jaya Tiasa goes up, I feel so satisfied and happy knowing that I have help investor and myself make some profit.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-02-28 06:00 | Report Abuse

The future of stock and commodity markets are really unknowable and unpredictable.

Some of the “most undervalued plantation stocks” and “high profit growth” with young tree profiles, huge capital expenses in planting and replanting plantation companies and promising future palm oil prices touted 4-5 years ago such as Rimbunan Sawit and JayaTiasa in a popular local blog have their quarterly financial results ending 31st December 2014 in losses. Their share prices have dropped by more than 30% since then while the overall market has gone up by more than 50%.

Those high growth plantation companies which I only knew such as Sarawak Oil Palm, TSH performed way below expectation due to the lower palm oil price, but at least they are still making profit.

A company with 30% revenue in palm oil, Kumpulan Fima was never paid any attention by any plantation analyst, has its latest quarterly result with jump in 35% profit from its palm oil division. What a surprise, or is it?

Plantation companies can’t be valued by metrics such as Market capitalization/planted area. A more appropriate metric should be EV/planted area. But that is also too simplistic as other factors play important role; they are management, how they are planted, terrain, soil condition, yield, age profile, weather, labour availability, other competitive commodity such as soya beans etc.

So it may be important to look at the history of the company such as its management action, past performance etc besides age profile, expected future prices etc and not swinging for the fence and employing high or any leverage in any investment, as one can be badly wrong.

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2015-03-04 13:28 | Report Abuse

Inflation--- sugar, flour, milk power, water, electricity, and everything else all went up in price. How could it be that the price of palm oil will not go up eventually considering our neighbor and us are the only planters in the world. How come commodity price not predictable but I think inflation is predictable. I am sure it can not surely go back to old days when it was RM$800 per tonne or even RM$250 per tonne, long time ago, can you believe it, now is RM$2300. At least history means something to me, I pay money to go to school to learn, so I learn history properly I know based on history, inflation is predictable and always going up.

This is a good company! Like it! Price currently at the lowest point in the last 5 years due to flooding and flooding don't happen every year. Time to accumulate is only my most humble prediction.

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2015-03-04 13:31 | Report Abuse

It is not the crop that is influenced by inflation directly. It is the cost of land, fertilizer, wages that are going up eventually that will make the palm oil price go up. The company has a lot of land acquired long time ago at cheap price so in a good position to benefit from inflation rise!

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2015-03-04 13:39 | Report Abuse

Of all consumer goods, like soybean and vegetable oils, need land to plant them and all the additional incredients, they all will go up in price because of inflation. When soybean becomes expensive, palm oil will benefit too because it is cheaper.

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2015-03-04 16:31 | Report Abuse

I give up on this company. With 937 million shares issued it can only make about 59 million net profit for the whole period of the last financial reporting year. One small company, that has not been listed for that long, Sarawak Plantation, from the same place, the company only issues 280 million shares to the public and this company can make 60.885 million net profit in the same financial reporting year. Now you know why all the Tycoon are so rich. This is a company that make use of the public to make money for themselves, the tycoon only hold 20% of company shares and this company only pay like 1 or 2 cents as dividends to the public. Can you imagine, they both has roughly same amount of plantations, but this company is also involve in other businesses that they claim they are the best in the world. See, for yourself, and think for yourself, don't need to waste time here is my opinion. This is called fundamental analysis, you compare the company with another company in the same sector, to know what is going on. See so easy! That is why I told KYY (My response to comments - Koon Yew Yin Koon Yew Yin's Blog) , he definitely is a speculator, he definitely did not do research at all!

Posted by PeterNg > 2015-03-04 17:27 | Report Abuse

pro people... can keep on change different forum and post comments.

Posted by matakuda > 2015-03-18 09:40 | Report Abuse

RHB were once upbeat on Jtiasa, but now reduce the TP to 0.85. http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/72900.jsp

Posted by Up_down > 2015-03-18 10:17 | Report Abuse

RHB's CFA is really a joker. TP was slashed by 55% base on his over pessimistic assumptions. IS he panic? I would be very happy if I could grab some at price 1.20. JTiasa's net borrowings has climbed to 860 million. With such high level of debt, it's time to call for another a right issue. wakaka.

Posted by Kelvin8787 > 2015-03-18 15:06 | Report Abuse

BUY BUY BUY MEGA SALES COMING

Posted by Up_down > 2015-03-18 15:19 | Report Abuse

It's still highly overvalued.

1. PER: 50 times
2. DY: 0.6%
3. FFB & Log production declining (It suppose to trend upward)
4. High borrowing of 860 million & it may surpass 1 billion this year
5. Costs/hectare of planted area is much higher than other plantation companies.
6. Insufficient mill capacity to support increase in internal FFB production.

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-03-18 15:44 | Report Abuse

wait below RM 1. now still too high.

Posted by Masland > 2015-03-18 17:17 | Report Abuse

江昌龙，please do something and include JTIASA in your prayers so the price will rebound. TQ.

Posted by skyu > 2015-03-19 00:00 | Report Abuse

for plantation company with in house oil mill, PE with 50++, is a bloody joke. the brother, kretam and rsawit are the same rubbish. are we expecting CPO to be above rm 2500 in 2015 ? the chances are very slim due to oversupply replanting.

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2015-03-19 00:12 | Report Abuse

nononononononono https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKI-tD0L18A

Posted by Up_down > 2015-03-19 11:15 | Report Abuse

Why Jtiasa? Next target price 1.6 and follow by 1.35. TAAN's PER is 13.5 times only.

Posted by matakuda > 2015-03-19 11:22 | Report Abuse

Semalam RHB-OSK memberi amaran akan penyusutan kewangan JT bagi FY2015 & FY2016. Tak sampai 24 jam, Ambank pulak rayu jasa baik para ikan bilis supaya tampil sokong JT. Ragam Reaseach House di Malaysia, masing-masing memberi laporan analis berdasarkan kepentingan empunya badan.

Posted by Up_down > 2015-03-19 11:26 | Report Abuse

FFB production growth....used to be claimed by a savvy investor 30% CAGR per annum. Jtiasa was able to achieve 1% growth only in year 2014. Where has the remaining 29% gone? The palm oil trees could be gone with the flood. wakaka.

Posted by profit profits > 2015-03-26 12:36 | Report Abuse

same boss like rsawit ?

Posted by Up_down > 2015-03-26 14:44 | Report Abuse

JTiasa, Rsawit & Subur are all under the control of Tiong's family. The management team of JTiasa & Rsawit suck...

Posted by profit profits > 2015-03-31 11:47 | Report Abuse

Up_down, I heard from my relative who is small holder to oil palm estate, for the past many months, harvest or not harvest fruit make no different because the profit just enough to cover wages pay to workers. Unless they use fixed wages workers, they would rather leave fruit not harvested. This might be the explanation why FFB data declines.

Posted by Up_down > 2015-03-31 15:35 | Report Abuse

Profit profits. Smaller planters would suffer more during the downtrend of commodity cycle. They don't have much bargaining power to negotiate a better terms. FFB price is entirely depended on the nearby mills. When you compare the performance between Jtiasa and TAAN, you would know why i said Jtiasa has been performing poorly.

Posted by kentrade888 > 2015-04-16 10:37 | Report Abuse

TARGET PRICE:RM10.70 http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/29535.jsp
http://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2015/04/16/1482123972-2107173908.pdf

Posted by Jeff Lim > 2015-04-16 17:13 | Report Abuse

AMMB maintain Buy on Jaya Tiasa, with an unchanged fair value of RM2.13/share, based on a PE of 20x FY16F EPS of 10.7 sen/share

Posted by Lim Elson > 2015-04-16 18:33 | Report Abuse

gila betul...... target rm10.70....

no harm to test it... tomolo buy 10 lot 1.72.. rm1,720.00

Posted by boonchai > 2015-04-16 23:25 | Report Abuse

i think this is a mistake. the sentence show like this : " - We maintain Buy on Jaya Tiasa, with an unchanged fair value of RM2.13/share, based on a PE of 20x FY16F EPS of 10.7 sen/share."

10.70 (sen) is the eps, meaning the target price still maintain unchanged @ RM2.13

Posted by kentrade888 > 2015-04-17 05:41 | Report Abuse

http://www.chinapress.com.my/node/615039

Posted by beso > 2015-04-17 08:57 | Report Abuse

plantation stock----->sell…

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-04-17 10:16 | Report Abuse

Agree. Lately the wind is not blowing on the direction of plantation.

Posted by walau2u > 2015-05-17 22:25 | Report Abuse

MACC will check in Jtiasa in illegal logging? How much Jtiasa can drop?

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/05/16/Jaya-Tiasa-works-with-MACC/?style=biz

Posted by tksw > 2015-05-19 19:31 | Report Abuse

matakuda sifu, from where did you know WTK sudah kena? link please

Posted by illy2010 > 2015-06-04 15:37 | Report Abuse

what happen??

Posted by illy2010 > 2015-06-04 15:38 | Report Abuse

What are the news? Privatization? New ventures? Bonus?

Posted by Up_down > 2015-07-13 10:24 | Report Abuse

Not many interested in plantation business now. Time to start support uncle Koon a bit.

Posted by ykloh > 2015-07-13 11:55 | Report Abuse

Your Uncle Koon YY, as far as I know, has already cashed out at about RM2.50 he, even though he once valued the share at about RM4.00. Watch out.

Posted by Up_down > 2015-07-13 15:03 | Report Abuse

In business world, it's all about profit. He would come back when the opportunity is available especially strong El Nino in the making nowadays. That's why I have started accumulating slowly at 1.50. The risk is much lower now.

Posted by Up_down > 2015-07-13 18:31 | Report Abuse

Some downstream industries are enjoying windfall profit as commodity prices cheaper comparing with few years ago ie poultry, furniture, rubber glove, plastic packaging & etc. Cheap commodity prices will not last long due to deflation concern. Palm oil upstream will start to shine again once current El Nino phenomenon develops into strong or extreme level.

Posted by profit profits > 2015-07-27 16:44 | Report Abuse

Is the boss sick or caught for illegal logging, why drop so much ?

Posted by Up_down > 2015-07-29 10:49 | Report Abuse

Let it drop more after breaking the resistance. It is certainly that Jtiasa would announce another lacklustre results next month.

Posted by profit profits > 2015-07-29 18:44 | Report Abuse

If goes kaput, why major share holders not selling ?

Posted by skyz > 2015-07-31 12:28 | Report Abuse

ykloh, this uncle koon is a big time ethical spinner. follow him blindly and be a prey to his "noble intentions".

Posted by Up_down > 2015-08-12 11:21 | Report Abuse

Prepare to collect in next target price 1.00.

Posted by Tanhuan > 2015-08-19 14:52 | Report Abuse

Why didn't sell its estate to FGV? It has better value than its potential buy from Indonesia.

Posted by Up_down > 2015-08-24 09:59 | Report Abuse

TP is getting closer. 10% more to go.

Posted by winwinyarazhi > 2015-09-05 18:41 | Report Abuse

How about jtiasa now.....?

Posted by weng77 > 2015-09-30 10:45 | Report Abuse

After review the Jaya tiasa MONTHLY PRODUCTION FIGURES (PLANTATION / TIMBER) and compared it to TAAN. There is room to grow for Jayatiasa share price. It will benefit the Palm oil price increased recently due to EL Nino effect couple with devaluation of RM which benefit timber sector. IMO

Jayatiasa - MONTHLY PRODUCTION FIGURES (PLANTATION / TIMBER)

Q2
Apr'15
Logs - 73,763 cubic metres.
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 58,256 metric tonnes.
Crude Palm Oil - 7,336 metric tonnes.
Palm Kernel - 1,011 metric tonnes.

May'15
Logs - 64,896 cubic metres.
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 67,648 metric tonnes.
Crude Palm Oil - 7,830 metric tonnes.
Palm Kernel - 1,097 metric tonnes.

June'15
Logs - 51,689 cubic metres.
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 67,159 metric tonnes.
Crude Palm Oil - 6,411 metric tonnes.
Palm Kernel - 1,012 metric tonnes.

Q3
July'15
Logs - 55,077 cubic metres.
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 81,659 metric tonnes.
Crude Palm Oil - 8,576 metric tonnes.
Palm Kernel - 1,434 metric tonnes.

Aug'15
Log - 77,218 cubic metres
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 95,968 metric tonnes
Crude Palm Oil - 11,341 metric tonnes
Palm Kemel - 1,806 metric tonnes

TAAN - MONTHLY PRODUCTION FIGURES (PLANTATION / TIMBER)
Q2
Apr'15
Log - 33,692 cubic metres
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 47,770 metric tonnes
Crude Palm Oil - 12,840 metric tonnes
Palm Kernel - 2,366 metric tonnes

May'15
Log - 43,236 cubic metres
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 50,147 metric tonnes
Crude Palm Oil - 14,592 metric tonnes
Palm Kernel - 2,689 metric tonnes

June'15
Log - 39,726 cubic metres
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 53,584 metric tonnes
Crude Palm Oil - 14,250 metric tonnes
Palm Kernel - 2,823 metric tonnes

Q3
July'15
Log - 48,112 cubic metres
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 59,606 metric tonnes
Crude Palm Oil - 15,869 metric tonnes
Palm Kernel - 3,089 metric tonnes

Aug'15
Log - 41,291 cubic metres
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 66,715 metric tonnes
Crude Palm Oil - 18,433 metric tonnes
Palm Kernel - 3,744 metric tonnes

Posted by weng77 > 2015-10-01 17:21 | Report Abuse

www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/business/2015/09/30/mpoc-el-nino-to-slash-2016-palm-oil-output/

Understand the EL Nino effect on the palm oil price, it is time to focus on palm oil stock.

Posted by weng77 > 2015-10-05 11:31 | Report Abuse

http://www.theborneopost.com/2015/10/03/weaker-ringgit-stronger-el-nino-positive-for-cpo-prices/

Plantation stock return back to radar of investor...Palm oil price for 2016 upgrade fr RM 2100 per Mt to RM 2300 Mt. Get ready for more upgrade from research house for plantation stock.

Posted by Up_down > 2015-10-05 12:08 | Report Abuse

Be a contrarian. Buy when the prices stay at low level.

Posted by weng77 > 2015-10-12 09:27 | Report Abuse

FFB production (MT) Forecast as per 4th Quarter 2015 Jayatiasa Corporate presentation slides

FY 2015 740,013 (Actual 30-Jun-2015)
FY 2016 935,000
FY 2017 1,060,000
FY 2018 1,155,000

Significant contribution from oil palm sector in the next few years.

Last Friday USDA report showed lower US output for soybeans and could provide support for soybean oil and palm oil price for this week.