Posted by gemfinder > 2020-04-11 14:10 | Report Abuse

Pay money stil lost money ka? Wat a joke...beter dump money into sea, stil can hear some sound

Posted by KLou88 > 2020-04-11 15:32 | Report Abuse

Hahaha u r a joke gemfinder, dump money into sea hahahaha r u a joke??? Please la lost money at least he or she can gain the experience, u suggest to throw to sea what u get? Are u a joke?? Hahahah

Posted by KLou88 > 2020-04-11 15:33 | Report Abuse

Definitely "DAI LAN NGONG"

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 16:01 | Report Abuse

Pha Lai Thermal Power (PPC) sets a profit plan of VND 677 billion in 2020, less than half of the same period.

https://cafef.vn/nhiet-dien-pha-lai-ppc-dat-ke-hoach-lai-truoc-thue-677-ty-dong-nam-2020-chua-bang-mot-nua-so-voi-cung-ky-20200314112429.chn

Pha Lai Thermal Power is expected to produce 6.2 billion kWh of electricity in 2020.

Business results

Pha Lai Thermal Power has just experienced a favorable business year in 2019 with net revenue of VND 8,183 billion, up 15% over the same period, in which revenue from electricity production activities increased compared to the plan. And after-tax profit reached VND 1,261 billion, up 12.3% compared to the profit achieved in 2018. EPS reached VND 3,933.

According to the report, the total electricity production in 2019 reached 6.05 billion kWh, exceeding 3.7% of the plan. And the output of electricity sold also reached more than 5.5 billion kWh.


.....................

1VND = 0.000182304 MYR

This mean a pretax profit of RM 229 M for 6 Billion kwh

For JAKS power plant of say 7 Billion kwh you will generate RM 267M

at 30% stakes JAKS may earn only RM 80 Million, and at 40% 120M?

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 16:03 | Report Abuse

RM 80M pretax profit when 2 units in operation for JAKS is quite worrying.....i truly hope IPP power plant via BOT is different.

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-04-11 16:04 | Report Abuse

Bro better buy other co which r more 'real'...

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 16:05 | Report Abuse

exactly charlest...thats what i am thinking...perhaps Dayang a safer bet?

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 16:08 | Report Abuse

too many uncertainties here... at least Dayang the management had been telling good prospect...and proven to deliver... now its suppressed due to covid 19 only...once this is under control...it will definitely fly back to where it was...

just a little worried on JAKS

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-04-11 16:30 | Report Abuse

Dear bro DK66 , your views & comments on Probability's concern , please .
TQVM
-----------------------------------------------------------
Probability >Pha Lai Thermal Power (PPC) sets a profit plan of VND 677 billion in 2020, less than half of the same period.

https://cafef.vn/nhiet-dien-pha-lai-ppc-dat-ke-hoach-lai-truoc-thue-67...

Pha Lai Thermal Power is expected to produce 6.2 billion kWh of electricity in 2020.

Business results

Pha Lai Thermal Power has just experienced a favorable business year in 2019 with net revenue of VND 8,183 billion, up 15% over the same period, in which revenue from electricity production activities increased compared to the plan. And after-tax profit reached VND 1,261 billion, up 12.3% compared to the profit achieved in 2018. EPS reached VND 3,933.

According to the report, the total electricity production in 2019 reached 6.05 billion kWh, exceeding 3.7% of the plan. And the output of electricity sold also reached more than 5.5 billion kWh.
.....................

1VND = 0.000182304 MYR

This mean a pretax profit of RM 229 M for 6 Billion kwh

For JAKS power plant of say 7 Billion kwh you will generate RM 267M

at 30% stakes JAKS may earn only RM 80 Million, and at 40% 120M?
11/04/2020 4:01 PM

Probability>RM 80M pretax profit when 2 units in operation for JAKS is quite worrying.....i truly hope IPP power plant via BOT is different.
11/04/2020 4:03 PM

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-04-11 16:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by KLou88 > 2020-04-11 16:51 | Report Abuse

Lose money, at least u know what company should or shouldn't buy, throw into sea?? Can hear some sound?? Don't sohai la DAI LAN NGONG.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-11 17:02 | Report Abuse

Vin3133, let me take a look at Pha Lai Thermal Power .........

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-11 17:19 | Report Abuse

Pha Lai Thermal Power Plant is the largest coal-fired power plant in Vietnam located in Pha Lai, Chí Linh District, Hải Dương Province, roughly 65 kilometres (40 mi) north-east of Hanoi. It has an installed electric capacity of 1,040 MW. Pha Lai 1 was fully financed and built with the Russian money and experts.

Construction of the 440-MW first plant started on 17 May 1980 and it was completed in 1986. It consists of four 110-MW turbines and eight boilers. Construction of the 600-MW second plant started on 8 June 1998 and it was completed in 2001 by Lilama Construction Company.[1] It consist of two 300-MW units with Mitsui Babcock Energy designed natural circulation boilers and General Electric generators.

Country : Vietnam
Location : Pha Lai
Status : Operational
Commission date : 1983 (Pha Lai I) : 2001 (Pha Lai II)
Owner(s) : Vietnam Electricity
Operator(s) : Pha Lai Thermal Power
Primary fuel : Anthracite
Units operational : 4 X 110 MW (Pha Lai I) : 2 X 300 MW (Pha Lai II)
Make and model : General Electric
Nameplate capacity : 1,040 MW

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-04-11 17:27 | Report Abuse

Dear bro DK66, no hurry , take your time .
Appreciate your efforts .
TQVM
----------------------------------------
DK66>Vin3133, let me take a look at Pha Lai Thermal Power .........
11/04/2020 5:02 PM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-11 17:37 | Report Abuse

Pretax profit for 2019 was VDN1529b = RM279m based on net output of 5.5b Kwh
Assuming equivalent of Vinh Tan 1 net output = 8.2b kwh
Net profit before tax = 8.2/5.5 x RM279m = RM416m

@ 30% = RM125m = EPS RM0.192
@ 40% = RM166m = EPS RM0.255

Note that both power plants of Pha Lai are very old already using outdated American technology.

Pha Lai power plants are directly owned by EVN, ie not under BOT. Hence, able to operate for as long as the power plants last. JHDP has only 25 years to recoup its investment and returns.

Pha Lai power plants are made up of smaller generating units, 110mw and 300mw, which are less efficient, if not obsolete, by today's standard.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-04-11 18:01 | Report Abuse

Probability,

How is the figures differ from Dk66 calculations. Can you please kindly put it in the most straightforward presentation. So that we can see the uncertainties you are talking about.

Thank you.

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-04-11 18:08 | Report Abuse

Appreciate your comparison , analysis and comments .
Hope it would to some extent allay Probability's concern .
TQVM for your efforts , dear bro DK66.
Take good care & stay safe .

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 18:10 | Report Abuse

@aseng, DK66 earnings presentation above is accurate based on the optimistic scenario of Vinh Tan 1 and Pha Lai current performance.

Risks are they may only deliver 7b kwh or lower on avg.

So it depends on the safety margin you are looking for.

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-04-11 18:21 | Report Abuse

KYY has written on Dayang last nite :
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/2020-04-10-story-h1505923411-Covid_19_Depressed_Stock_Market_Koon_Yew_Yin.jsp
--------------------------------------------------------
Probability>exactly charlest...thats what i am thinking...perhaps Dayang a safer bet?
11/04/2020 4:05 PM

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 18:30 | Report Abuse

you will see the full potential earnings of JAKS by mid 2021

my feeling is that you may not need that long for O&G to recover

Dayang has potential 40 cents EPS per annum (in fact they had proved it) ...and when the time is right they will provide dividend as they have done earlier

JAKS is definitely a good stock but considering that both had dipped significantly...i wonder which is a safer ship to put more stakes now

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-11 18:38 | Report Abuse

$80 million very good already when everyone also losses

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-11 18:41 | Report Abuse

cash flow vise expect to be negative for a long long time.

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-04-11 18:44 | Report Abuse

No cash but got beautiful paper profit low PE for years to shiok sendiri n otb to goreng on n off loh

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-11 18:51 | Report Abuse

anyone thinking of coal plants do not know what is happening to coal plants around the world and especially with oil at $20.

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-04-11 18:52 | Report Abuse

no dividend => FREE money for others to enjoy

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-11 18:54 | Report Abuse

how is Jaks going to handle it's cash flow problems I really have no idea... and the mall?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-11 18:54 | Report Abuse

mall sure die

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-11 18:58 | Report Abuse

50% discount also no buyer for mall

Posted by jiunn > 2020-04-11 19:03 | Report Abuse

^^^JAKS: A BULLISH PENNANT BREAKOUT SOON??!

Trading Idea: JAKS has done both bullish breakout of a rising wedge at 0.77 and its medium-term downtrend line (1/4/2020) with volume surge in recent rebounds, but has failed to stay above 200-day SMA (1,02) despite testing and filling up the down gaps from 0,980-1,040

From early April until yesterday, JAKS has risen from 0,62 and hit 1,04 before close lower at 0,965. The recent sharp rise has also formed a SOLID FLAG POLE & PENNANT in around 0,950 to 0,985. Thus, the target for this breakout move is 1,245 (around 1,21 of 0,618 Fib Retracement)

Based on the above, we may see another rally over the next 1-2 week, which some would call the RAYA RALLY. If you are nimble enough, you can try your luck and make a BIG new DUIT RAYA for this coming new year!

Huat Huat AARRRR!!! Long JAKS!! Long OTB!!

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-11 19:07 | Report Abuse

charts can be interpreted in any manner

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-11 19:08 | Report Abuse

more reliable than charts is proactive Vs reactive

Posted by OTB > 2020-04-11 19:11 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-11 19:46 | Report Abuse

Dear OTB,

It is difficult to make comparison of 2 different animals. They may both operate in the same country but the terms and conditions for domestic and international operators vary substantially. I believe JHDP, having limited operation tenure, will logically yield much higher annual profit compare to one which does not need to transfer its assets to the government.

However, I am unable to manage the basis of your assumption on doubling the sales price. It is not convincing without some factual evidences.

Pha Lai is owned by EVN who is also the buyer of its output, hence its profit is purely inter-company related decision. Highly subjective in nature. I will not use it to make projection of JHDP which operates under BOT. Meanwhile, I will stick to what I have explored so far.

Nevertheless, It is enlightening to see an aging coal power plant in Vietnam still generating healthy profit. This should alleviate concerns of many that coal power plants are no longer profitable.

Thank you

---------------------
OTB Dear DK66,

I also did a estimated calculation on this profit.
5.5 billion kwh = RM 279 million
1 kwh = RM 0.05
I believe Hai Duong power plant is more efficient and cost effective.
Moreover, it is a BOT project.
If I take the sale price to RM 0.10 per kwh
The project profit = RM 250 million which is the figure I aimed for.
I believe RM 250 million profit per year for first 5 years is not a problem.
Please comment on my assumption.
Thank you.
11/04/2020 7:11 PM

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-04-11 19:48 | Report Abuse

Dok sembang auta apa woiii ?????

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-11 19:49 | Report Abuse

Vin3133, you are welcome

--------------
VIN3133 Appreciate your comparison , analysis and comments .
Hope it would to some extent allay Probability's concern .
TQVM for your efforts , dear bro DK66.
Take good care & stay safe .
11/04/2020 6:08 PM

Posted by OTB > 2020-04-11 20:01 | Report Abuse

Posted by DK66 > Apr 11, 2020 7:46 PM | Report Abuse
Nevertheless, It is enlightening to see an aging coal power plant in Vietnam still generating healthy profit.
---------------------
I was told JHDP is the most modern and advanced among all 3 new power plants in Hanoi.
Looking at the healthy profit generated by an old power plant (20 to 30 years old), I have very high confidence that JHDP will able to generate a profit of RM 250 million after COD.
Thank you.

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 20:07 | Report Abuse

In subcritical plants, thermal efficiency of the steam cycle can average only about 32%. For supercritical plants it can go up to 42%; for ultra-supercritical plants, thermal efficiency can rise to 46%.

Read more at:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/et-view/et-view-policy-induce-stepped-up-thermal-efficiency-in-power-plants/articleshow/70485707.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 20:10 | Report Abuse

JAKS power plant is subcritical whereas Vinh Tan 1 is supercritical.

Efficiency of energy output with the same utilization rate of 7238 hrs will be 32% vs 42%.

Meaning, if Vinh Tan 1 output is 8.2b kwh, JAKS will only generate:

= (32/42)* 8.2
= 6.1 b kwh/annum
...........

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 20:16 | Report Abuse

If we use the above findings into the below figures, then we derive the below for JAKS using Subcritical Thermal power plant:

Net profit before tax = 6.1/5.5 x RM279m = RM309m


@ 30% = RM93m = EPS RM0.14
@ 40% = RM124m = EPS RM0.19




Posted by DK66 > Apr 11, 2020 5:37 PM | Report Abuse

Pretax profit for 2019 was VDN1529b = RM279m based on net output of 5.5b Kwh
Assuming equivalent of Vinh Tan 1 net output = 8.2b kwh
Net profit before tax = 8.2/5.5 x RM279m = RM416m

@ 30% = RM125m = EPS RM0.192
@ 40% = RM166m = EPS RM0.255

Note that both power plants of Pha Lai are very old already using outdated American technology.

Pha Lai power plants are directly owned by EVN, ie not under BOT. Hence, able to operate for as long as the power plants last. JHDP has only 25 years to recoup its investment and returns.

Pha Lai power plants are made up of smaller generating units, 110mw and 300mw, which are less efficient, if not obsolete, by today's standard.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-11 20:17 | Report Abuse

Extracted from my article "Jaks Resources - Effect of Plant Efficiency On Profit"

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-03-14-story-h1484838111-Jaks_Resources_Effect_of_Plant_Efficiency_On_Profit.jsp

How efficient is the Subcritical Coal Power Generation Technology of China ?

China's coal plants : New efficiency benchmarks

By James Varley 13 Dec 2019
Since 2004, China has been replacing small, low efficiency, coal plants with larger, more efficient units, and the “six year action plan”, launched in 2014, has set new annual average efficiency targets that must be achieved by coal plants if they are to remain on the grid: 39.6% (net, LHV) for 300 MW units; and 40.9% for 600 MW units. For these 300 MW units to achieve the annual average efficiency target of 39.6% specified in the six year plan, their efficiency under rated conditions needs to be higher than 42%.

https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/chinas-coal-plants-new-efficiency-benchmarks/

This suggests that for 600MW units, their efficiency under rated conditions needs to be higher than 43.3%

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-11 20:20 | Report Abuse

Even mong Duong II achieved efficiency of 34.8% during low plant load

Posted by OTB > 2020-04-11 20:23 | Report Abuse

Probability,

I was told and confirmed on the spot by the engineer in Vietnam that 8,149 kwh output per year is not a problem for JHDP.
They expect a better figure than Vinh Tan 1 power plant because CPECC is the contractor and also the owner of JHDP.

CEEC is a subsidiary of CPECC, CEEC is the contractor to build Vinh Tan 1 power plant. CEEC is not the owner of Vinh Tan 1.

I did verify this fact.
Thank you.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-04-11 20:27 | Report Abuse

Thank you DK66, OTB and Probability

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-04-11 20:29 | Report Abuse

How to calculate projected earning of Hai Duong power plant of Jaks (second method)

I am using the earnings of Mong Duong 2 to project the future projected earnings of Hai Duong power plant since these 2 power plants are using coal-fired power to produce electricity.

Below is the current earning of the Mong Duong 2 power plant for the first 9 months of 2019.
AES owns 51% stake, total profit of US$ 74M for nine months (YTD2019: Q1+Q2+Q3), at 100% stake annualized = RM 812M.

It means Hai Duong power plant of Jaks equal to 30% of RM 812M = RM 812M*30% = RM 243M.

Please note that Q3 2019 result of Mong Duong 2 is very impressive, based on Q3 2019 result (Using coal, apple to apple comparison), if annualized the Pre-tax income at 100% stake will be:

US$ 45/QTR x (100%/51%) x (RM4.2/1.0 US$) x (4 QTR/YR) = RM 1482 Million.

JAKS at 30% stakes, the earning is RM 444 Million (being tax free for the first few years)

Please note that Mong Duong 2 plant costs US$ 2.1 Billion and thus having much higher depreciation rate than the US$ 1.87 Billion of Hai Duong. That’s about RM 40 Million earnings difference per annum. The earning of Hai Duong power plant will be more than Mong Duong 2.

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 20:29 | Report Abuse

ok you are right OTB, the output will remain the same, but their fuel consumption will go higher by the proportion i used

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-04-11 20:30 | Report Abuse

The Mong Duong-2 power plant was constructed on a 297ha site in the Mong Duong Power Centre, approximately 200km east of Hanoi, and is located alongside the Mong Duong 1 project.

The site was selected for its proximity to coal mines, availability of transportation infrastructure and cooling water, as well as easy connection to the national grid. Both plants are expected to share common facilities, including the fuel-oil and limestone jetties, as well as cooling water inlet and outlet channels.

Mong Duong-2 is equipped with two 600MW power boilers, the first boilers to be produced domestically in Vietnam, and will use pulverised coal (PC) technology, which will involve the pulverisation of coal at a highly fine degree to spray into the furnace. A flue-gas desulfuriser (FGD) will be installed for this operation.

The boilers produce steam to drive the turbines that generate the electricity. However, the Mong Duong-1 plant uses circulating fluidised bed (CFB) technology to burn fuel with high sulphur content.

Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Holding Corporation (Vincomin), a state-owned entity, supplies coal under a 25-year coal supply agreement.

Cooling water for the power plant is sourced from the Luong Gac channel and discharged via the De Dach River to the Thac Thay River. A buried pipeline was constructed for this purpose.

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 20:32 | Report Abuse

JAKS will still deliver 8.2 b kwh as DK66 and OTB pointed but their fuel consumption will be at least higher by say 42/35 = 20%

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-04-11 20:32 | Report Abuse

Mong Duong 2 power plant is very similar to Hai Duong power plant and if Mong Duong 2 can generate so much profit according to OTB's research, it is very likely that Hai Duong wll also generate that much profit..

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-04-11 20:42 | Report Abuse

If 2 or 3 gurus say the same thing, chances are they are right. If DK66 and OTB see the same likely projected profits based on in-depth research, chances are they are right..Great minds thnk alike!

So I'll stick with their views and ignore the naysayers and speculators..

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-11 20:42 | Report Abuse

Compare to Pha Lai ?
---------------------
probability JAKS will still deliver 8.2 b kwh as DK66 and OTB pointed but their fuel consumption will be at least higher by say 42/35 = 20%
11/04/2020 8:32 PM