Posted by johnmasino > 2020-04-11 20:43 | Report Abuse

OTB:- Post erased as requested.

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 20:45 | Report Abuse

compared to Vinh Tan 1

Posted by DK66 > Apr 11, 2020 8:42 PM | Report Abuse

Compare to Pha Lai ?
---------------------
probability JAKS will still deliver 8.2 b kwh as DK66 and OTB pointed but their fuel consumption will be at least higher by say 42/35 = 20%
11/04/2020 8:32 PM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-11 20:51 | Report Abuse

I can't validate as I do not have the plant efficiency data of Vinh Tan 1 and JHDP has not commenced operation yet.

-------------------
probability JAKS will still deliver 8.2 b kwh as DK66 and OTB pointed but their fuel consumption will be at least higher by say 42/35 = 20%
11/04/2020 8:32 PM
11/04/2020 8:45 PM

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 20:57 | Report Abuse

DK66, this efficiency comparison between supercritical and subcritical is design limitations which are well established.

This 20% higher fuel consumption will of course be covered by fuel cost pass through mechanism but just some of the worrying facts when i see the below:


https://www.vir.com.vn/vinh-tan-1-gearing-up-for-operation-61958.html

When will the Vinh Tan 1 thermal power plant start generating profits?

Operating under the BOT format, the project boasts around $1.75 billion in total investment capital, 80 per cent of which is sourced from a consortium of several international banks. If the project runs smoothly without any hitches, Vinh Tan 1 Power Co., Ltd. will be able to pay off all debts and start generating profits 18 years after the plant starts commercial operation.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-11 21:04 | Report Abuse

The loan tenure is 18 years. Hence, it takes 18 years to fully pay off its debts. Both mong duong II and Vinh Tan 1 were immediately profitable upon COD.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-11 21:07 | Report Abuse

Mong Duong II made cash distributions to its shareholders during the last 4 years

Posted by pjseow > 2020-04-11 21:27 | Report Abuse

DK 66, Probability and OTB
I think it is not a fair comparison between Hai Duong power plant which use the latest and more efficient parts and technology with the 30 year old Russian Technology. I prefer to stick.to DK 66 Calculation . The capacity.payment of 109 million is somewhat quaranteed while the Energy payment will range between.zero to 84 million . Zero payment if Hai Duong is not able to meet or just meetimg the targeted or agreed upon.efficiency, then EVN.will just pay the fuel.cost plus plant maintence cost. If Hai Duong can.meet 43.3 % efficiency, then EVN.will.reward Hai Duong with.the estimatef 84 million . If we take the middle , then.energy payment will be 42 million. With a total of 109+42 millions, the eps is 23 sen based on 30% JAKS ownership. Since Hai.Duong is more expensive than.Vinh Tan.because of higher spec, I believe.Hai Duong is able to deliver at 43.3 % efficiency.

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 21:31 | Report Abuse

@pjseow, where did you take that 43.3% efficiency? from DK66 calculation earlier below?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-03-14-story-h1484838111-Jaks_Resources_Effect_of_Plant_Efficiency_On_Profit.jsp

These are just hypothetical figures DK66 made

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 21:35 | Report Abuse

guys, i do not want to express more arguments to bring down the optimism here...

since i value DK66 and pjseow as real good friends

my only suggestion if you can find another equally compelling stock to get in and which had proven earlier, please do it as there is a quite a bit of uncertainty on JAKS at the moment.

i do not want the price to be manipulated and screwed again repeatedly using gullible investors

tk cr

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-11 21:37 | Report Abuse

Probability, your decision to switch to Dayang is a matter of choice between 2 companies on your list. I do believe Dayang, a well managed company, will eventually rise again when Covid19 matters no more. Mr Koon has sold Dayang and talked bad about Dayang, as usual, but it won't matter as Jaks has proven so. Dayang was my favorite during the last oil boom. But now I m riding with Jaks.

I sincerely wish you all the best with Dayang.

Posted by pjseow > 2020-04-11 21:40 | Report Abuse

Sorry, some correction. The 109 + 42 million are in US dollars. Using exchange rate of 4.35 , the eps is 30 sen for Jaks 30 % instead of 23 sen per share

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 21:40 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-11 21:42 | Report Abuse

I will
------------------
probability noted DK66..lets see how things goes...but keep sharing your valuable insights
11/04/2020 9:40 PM

Posted by apolloang > 2020-04-11 21:43 | Report Abuse

Jaks and Jill
Went up the hill
To lure a group of sorchais,
Jaks fell down
And broke his crown,
And Jill came tumbling after

hahaha

Posted by pjseow > 2020-04-11 21:44 | Report Abuse

Probability, I quoted 43.3 % efficiency from DK 66 article . Even if the energy payment is zero, there is still the quarenteed US 109 million of capacity payment. This payment us translated into eps of 22 sen

Posted by probability > 2020-04-11 21:46 | Report Abuse

@pjseow, JAKS thermal power plant will never achieve higher efficiency than Mong Duong 2. That extra profit is non-existent.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-11 21:48 | Report Abuse

pjseow, probability is right that the 43.3% represents the theoretical figure which may differ from the actual operational efficiency which very much depends on the operation conditions like plant load factor etc.

Posted by pjseow > 2020-04-11 21:50 | Report Abuse

Probability, to be honest, I m also looking at other more compelling stocks during this uncertainty period with so many other badly beaten stocks. KYY latest article showed that he had sold all his dayang stock.at a loss. With Petronas shutting down some oilfields and with uncertain oil prices , he discouraged buyimg dayang.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-11 21:55 | Report Abuse

However, it is also premature to conclude that JHDP will not achieve higher efficiency than Mong Duong II as Chinese technology in thermal power has proven to be more superior than American.

Posted by newbie8080 > 2020-04-11 22:14 | Report Abuse

@DK66

Since this power plant will generate substantial earnings for JHDP of USD5.8 billion over the next 25 years, it's quite hilarious that the owner of J@k$ did not take this opportunity to accumulate more stocks in the open market last few weeks when it was below 70cents.

The best option would be taking the entire company private a few years back when the company is worth of less than RM500mil.
If the owner is wise, he would never want to share the USD5bil with anyone here.

Any thoughts?

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-04-11 22:18 | Report Abuse

Hi , bro pjseow , quite some time " no hear from u " !
Glad to know u are fine & sound .
It is good to read the constructive, valuable discussions & arguments by the knowledgeable gurus .
Benefit all the investors here .
TQ all .

Posted by trapped > 2020-04-11 22:24 | Report Abuse

newbie8080 if some1 like my ID bought >1.4 why must they answer you?

Posted by newbie8080 > Apr 11, 2020 10:14 PM | Report Abuse
@DK66

Since this power plant will generate substantial earnings for JHDP of USD5.8 billion over the next 25 years, it's quite hilarious that the owner of J@k$ did not take this opportunity to accumulate more stocks in the open market last few weeks when it was below 70cents.

The best option would be taking the entire company private a few years back when the company is worth of less than RM500mil.
If the owner is wise, he would never want to share the USD5bil with anyone here.

Any thoughts?

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-04-11 22:29 | Report Abuse

Apollo and Ang
Went up the hill
To spread shit with his tongue,
Apollo and Ang fell down
And broke his crown,
And mom came tumbling after

hahaha

Posted by 2721 > 2020-04-11 22:31 | Report Abuse

https://www.orientaldaily.com.my/news/international/2020/04/11/335321

Posted by apolloang > 2020-04-11 22:32 | Report Abuse

bukan andy ar why Apollo? u type wrong ar cos Apollo no own this stock now....hehe

Posted by 2721 > 2020-04-11 22:32 | Report Abuse

monday is a bull day?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-11 22:49 | Report Abuse

newbie8080,

Those who wonder why Andy did not buy out Jaks at RM0.40 missed the rally to RM1.50. Now Jaks fell on Covid19 and presented another opportunity to buy at RM0.70. Those who continued to wonder missed again.

Your thinking suggests that JHDP earnings cannot be real otherwise Andy must have privatised Jaks. I m sure many shared your reasoning and preferred to wait for results before entry.

I cannot debate your rationale because I m not Andy. But neither are you. Therefore, you better be sure that anything too good to believe is illusive just because the boss is not taking the company private. Are you prepared to let Jaks slips your palm on this notion ?

I m a mathematician who always believe in figures. I can't read minds.

Thank you
------------------------
newbie8080 @DK66

Since this power plant will generate substantial earnings for JHDP of USD5.8 billion over the next 25 years, it's quite hilarious that the owner of J@k$ did not take this opportunity to accumulate more stocks in the open market last few weeks when it was below 70cents.

The best option would be taking the entire company private a few years back when the company is worth of less than RM500mil.
If the owner is wise, he would never want to share the USD5bil with anyone here.

Any thoughts?
11/04/2020 10:14 PM

Posted by pjseow > 2020-04-11 22:51 | Report Abuse

VIN 3133, thanks for yiur kind words. last month was a terrible month . I decided not to participate in the forum.because stock.prices do not follow FA or even TA anymore.

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-04-11 23:15 | Report Abuse

Me too , bro pjseow !
I chose to be in total lockdown /hibernation with my Ms Jaks in my freezer till today !!

haha

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-04-12 00:00 | Report Abuse

Don't worrylar..JAKS fundamentals are very solid. No worries! Just keep until JAKS hits RM4,5,6 in 2021/22/23

Posted by Newbie0916 > 2020-04-12 04:54 | Report Abuse

I just want to verify something. Are u sure CEEC is a subsidiary of CPECC but not the vice versa?My friend from China told me CEEC is parent company, whereas CPECC is one of the sub company under CEEC. I don't think he is bluffing me. As what u can see, CPECC don't have their own official portal. When they need to make any official announcement on progress of JHDP, they will make the announcement through CEEC official portal. Besides, CPECC also use CEEC logo on fb portal to announce their JHDP's current progress. So, it is quite hard for me to believe CEEC is a subsidiary of CPECC like what u claimed. Sorry, no offence, I just interested to know the facts only.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Energy_Engineering_Corporation

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CEEC is a subsidiary of CPECC, CEEC is the contractor to build Vinh Tan 1 power plant. CEEC is not the owner of Vinh Tan 1.

I did verify this fact.
Thank you.

Posted by Philip (Honesty is expensive. Dont expect frm cheap ppl ) > 2020-04-12 05:35 | Report Abuse

Hi newbie0916, I am sure you are correct and OTB is correct as well, he just mix up some info probably.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Energy_Engineering_Corporation


>>>>>>>>

https://nbn.media/china-power-engineering-consulting-group-co-ltd-cpecc/

Posted by Aseng > 2020-04-12 07:55 | Report Abuse

Good morning my good frienfs

Posted by Aseng > 2020-04-12 08:04 | Report Abuse

I choose to satay put with a reduced target price of 30% from 2.5 to 1.75
Reasons
1. What Phillips said makes sense, the integrity of the management, the performance of the company as a whole ongoing entity have to be taken into consideration
2. Skepticism of profit calculations by probability also makes sense,
Hence a discount of 30% for the margin of error is applied.

Thank you

Posted by Aseng > 2020-04-12 08:17 | Report Abuse

We must be rational, never believe KYY will not abondon you before the tp he shouted is hit.
Sifu can helps you see the value but can not guarantee the value. Calculation still remains a calculation, we are still an outsider trying to guess the insider works.
Many sifu here had invited a lot of dislikes because they are too anxious to gain and forgotten to talk rationally.
Put it in a very straightforward language,
What the hell of shouting 4, 5, 6 when 1, 2,3 is too difficult to hit?

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-12 08:28 | Report Abuse

Morning Aseng still hold bjland?

Posted by Aseng > 2020-04-12 08:39 | Report Abuse

Good morning dear Sslee
I sold all my bjland
My holding period had expired
Now I am focusing on the business I like
1. Highway 40%
2.e-govnment 40%
3.power plant 20%

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-12 08:51 | Report Abuse

Dear Aseng,
Good choice.
Bjland look like something going on as TVST, BjCorp and Bjland collecting from market and now the share spread is below 15% again.

Posted by jonathanlum > 2020-04-12 08:53 | Report Abuse

No wonder Vietnam covid 19 well contained because the strictest rank #1...Malaysia #4
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/04/12/malaysia039s-response-to-covid-19-ranked-fourth-strictest-in-sea

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-12 08:59 | Report Abuse

Newbie0916, You are right, CPECC is a subsidiary of CEEC, not the other way. The fault is mine. I believe OTB took the info from one of my article. I did not verify the relationship between the 2 companies. In any case, no harm done. Which ever is the holding company does not affect anything that I have presented. OTB's statement still hold truth despite the mix up.

Thanks for the correction.

----------------------------
Newbie0916 I just want to verify something. Are u sure CEEC is a subsidiary of CPECC but not the vice versa?My friend from China told me CEEC is parent company, whereas CPECC is one of the sub company under CEEC. I don't think he is bluffing me. As what u can see, CPECC don't have their own official portal. When they need to make any official announcement on progress of JHDP, they will make the announcement through CEEC official portal. Besides, CPECC also use CEEC logo on fb portal to announce their JHDP's current progress. So, it is quite hard for me to believe CEEC is a subsidiary of CPECC like what u claimed. Sorry, no offence, I just interested to know the facts only.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Energy_Engineering_Corporation

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-12 09:05 | Report Abuse

JHDP awards the EPC1 jobs to a subsidiary of CEEC which is a sister company to CPECC. EPC2 jobs awarded to Jaks were also fully subcontracted to a subsidiary of CEEC.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-12 09:10 | Report Abuse

And CEEC was also the contractor of Vinh Tan 1 power plant

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-12 09:16 | Report Abuse

CEEC is also the contractor of Duyan Hai 2 power plant in vietnam which is 40% owned by Janakuasa, a malaysian company owned by Syed Mokhtar Albukhary. Duyan Hai 2 is currently under construction estimated at 50% completion.

Posted by jiunn > 2020-04-12 09:19 | Report Abuse

^^^2ND CHAPTER: WHEN KOON MEETS OOI.......!!!

OOI: "Bro! Your HOT MONEY came in on right time man. Thanks I owe u once bro"

KOON: "No mentioned la. I should have been listened to u taking profit when my Dayang was 2,80."

KOON: "Well, JAKS has almost hits back 1,00. What would u recommend now?"

OOI: "JAKS to move higher again tomorrow to cross 1,02. My target this rebound is around 1,30."

KOON: "Great! I would then start to unload some position to recover my losses in Dayang. The stupid Dayang makes me suffer on margin called. Total selloff last week. Tell u what, guess what my breakeven price was?"

OOI: "1.30?!!"

KOON: "Bingo! Sold all my shares even at a loss."

OOI: "Serious??! Hope u had learned a bitter lesson."

OOI: "Believe me la...JAKS won't let u down. My ROI in 2019 is 175%. I made a lot of money on 2 stocks i.e. Dayang and Carimin before also. I'm talking with facts and figures."

KOON: "Let us work together for the big day to come!"


P/S:
KOON: one of the famous charitable tycoon & successful businessman!
OOI: one of the famous stockbroker & investor advisor!

Those who has missed my 1st Chapter, do visit my post @
Stock: [DAYANG]: DAYANG ENTERPRISE HOLDINGS BHD
Mar 20, 2020 8:45 AM


Huat Huat AAARRRR!!! Long KYY!! Long OTB!!!

Posted by Datuk Seri Rick Walker > 2020-04-12 13:55 | Report Abuse

Sold last thursday! Waiting for next round!

Posted by huahtai98 > 2020-04-12 13:59 | Report Abuse

@jiunn....KOON=KYY?
Btw I am 100% su...re Mr. KYY has a much better command of the English language than what you posted. .. ..haha.

Posted by chamlo > 2020-04-12 14:14 | Report Abuse

Why Andy Ang not talking or buying more? Something not right?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-04-12 15:41 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-04-12-story-h1505928000-Jaks_Resources_Impact_of_Covid19.jsp

Posted by stockwin > 2020-04-12 16:58 | Report Abuse

TQVM DK66

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DK66 https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-04-12-story-h1...
12/04/2020 3:41 PM

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-04-12 17:55 | Report Abuse

Thanks DK66 for that write up about covid-19