Mabel.. what do you think of Dayang Q1 results.. is it still worth holding for long term.. Based on the review by Baby Ace, it does not seem like supporter of Dayang..
You all pandai pandai la ha...Q1 performance actually quite good...But the outlook next quarter hopefully not as what I imagine la ha...If write my own TP I confirmed kena bash haha
#1Rainbow0721 Mabel.. what do you think of Dayang Q1 results.. is it still worth holding for long term..Based on the review by Baby Ace, it does not seem like supporter of Dayang.. 23/06/2020 10:09 PM
#2 Rainbow0721 Mabel.. do you have any idea why the marine segment continue to be loss-making? 23/06/2020 10:14 PM
#3 Rainbow0721 Mabel.. one more question.. what is the legal suit with PPB related to? 23/06/2020 10:23 PM
Well I have been collecting and as I said many time, I plan to hold at least until the end of this year. Of course, along the way I may trade when the price is favourable or when I need the money to reinvest in other counter just like what I did recently when Dayang breached RM 1.50 where I used that money to top up Gloves Fantastic Four.
Thank you Baby Ace for sharing your review. Managed to browse his analysis after seeing your above questions. You should ask Baby at the bottom of his article for his comments since he took the initiative to read and study the latest Q1 Report. Well done BA.
From Baby Ace analysis, the Q120 performance is always lower due to offshore topside maintenance operations ("Offshore TMS") which is normally affected by bad weather (monsoon) at the beginning of the year. Thus, you can always refer to Q1 results for the past years it is always lower compared to other quarters. Given the figures we look at, the results are amazing as in prior years they seem to be always making losses in Q1. Offshore TMS is their main revenue contributor. So, if due to weather the overall performance of the Company gets affected, not the Company's fault, so for me it's a positive point. Revenue and PBT is higher due to higher work orders received and performed under the topside maintenance contracts and also higher vessel utilisation. Bottom line - Q120 quarter results are better than 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019...Well done!
Operating cash flow is excellent. Cash and bank balance increase from RM203mil (31/12/2019) to RM538mil (31/3/2020) an increase of RM335 mil. They managed to collect RM264 mil from their customer during the quarter in which their credit term is 30 days from invoice date. Great job!. Prospects seem to be good with huge book order. With this contract, together with the recent packages from i-HUC and additional “farm-in” orders, Dayang’s existing orderbook which stands at ~RM4.8bn Another Good Job!
On top of this, according to PublicInvest Research, the new contract has a lifespan of three years with a two-year extension option effective from 30 Jan 2020, and was awarded by CPOC which serves as the operator under the Joint Operating Agreement between Petronas Carigali JDA Ltd, Malaysia and PTTEP International Limited, Thailand in respect of the exploration and exploitation of petroleum for Block B-17 & C-19 and Block B-17-01 located at the lower part of Gulf of Thailand near the South China Sea. While there is no specific contract value mentioned as it will be based on work orders issued by the project owner, we think it could potentially be worth c.USD80m throughout the period.
Just like her Sister, Serbadk Dinamik, Dayang Enterprise (Dayang) is starting to make its presence felt internationally, clinching an umbrella contract in Thailand for the provision of modification works for Block B-17 & C-19 and B-17-01. The contract, awarded by Carigali - PTTEPI Operating Company SB (CPOC) is for a three-year period with a two-year extension. Specific details and fixed values are not provided in this contract as it will be based on work orders issued by the project owner from time to time. We are positively surprised by this development as we had not expected Dayang to secure any significant contracts aside from the potential additional “farm-in” works from existing contracts. This will provide Dayang even greater earnings visibility up to next four years.
PublicInvest think FY20/21 forecasts higher by 3.3% on average, with adjustment made to profit margins for its existing work orders. We also make adjustments to our full year FY19 projection by +29.3%. We derive a new TP for Dayang of RM3.15, based on 14x PE multiple over FY21F EPS of 22.5sen. Given the fair upside potential and positive news flows, they upgrade to Trading Buy.
This is one of my motivation for investing in Dayang since it is less prone to oil volatility compare to my other Battleships in the Upstream segment of O&G Supply Chain.
Marine segment has always been an issues. My Armada and Sapnrg are facing the same problem due to the lack of charter demand in this pandemic scenario. However, they complete each company's portfolio to provide end to end solution to their respective customer. So I recon it's chicken and egg story.
I have no idea on your last question regarding to legal suit with PPB. Perhaps you can clarify what is the issues or someone else may like comment with regard to this issues
Mabel. Are you in the O&G industry? You talk as if you are an expert but your comments obviously show you know nuts about this industry. First, i would like to clarify. Dayang is a good company with good management. It's a company i would invest for long term. Though i seldom like to comment, i come here today wondering why Dayang's still up after they given an HONEST future business outlook. Of all the research analysis, i consider PublicInvest to be one of the better one. You tried to quote PublicInvest TP for Dayang of RM3.15?? You don't see latest PublicInvest TP on Dayang meh? I am in O&G business and anyone who said this industry is ok is either outright dumb or liar. Why are you?
PublicInvest think FY20/21 forecasts higher by 3.3% on average, with adjustment made to profit margins for its existing work orders. We also make adjustments to our full year FY19 projection by +29.3%. We derive a new TP for Dayang of RM3.15, based on 14x PE multiple over FY21F EPS of 22.5sen. Given the fair upside potential and positive news flows, they upgrade to Trading Buy.
@Windy1974 Mabel. Are you in the O&G industry? You talk as if you are an expert but your comments obviously show you know nuts about this industry. First, i would like to clarify. Dayang is a good company with good management. It's a company i would invest for long term. Though i seldom like to comment, i come here today wondering why Dayang's still up after they given an HONEST future business outlook. Of all the research analysis, i consider PublicInvest to be one of the better one. You tried to quote PublicInvest TP for Dayang of RM3.15?? You don't see latest PublicInvest TP on Dayang meh? I am in O&G business and anyone who said this industry is ok is either outright dumb or liar. Why are you?
PublicInvest think FY20/21 forecasts higher by 3.3% on average, with adjustment made to profit margins for its existing work orders. We also make adjustments to our full year FY19 projection by +29.3%. We derive a new TP for Dayang of RM3.15, based on 14x PE multiple over FY21F EPS of 22.5sen. Given the fair upside potential and positive news flows, they upgrade to Trading Buy. 24/06/2020 10:03 AM
Usually when someone ask me, I give what I think...my honest opinion as I have as much stakes in Dayang as the asker..
If you want to judge me, than it's only fair you read all my comments when I enter Dayang when it dropped to 71 sen. Once you read all that, than you have every right to make a statements.
FYI, Dayang is not the only O&G counter I have put my stakes in. I have 17 other O&G companies.
What you share is what I have shared, so what's new?
From the report I read from Kenanga, MIDF and Public Invest, I can say they are honest with their findings...but don't take their TP too seriously. O&G industry is very specialized and like Windy1974 mentioned, normal people who don't do homework or not in the industry itself would not know what's happening. You can only understand how it works if you have friends in the industry itself and spending a lot of time talking to them and that's a lot of information you could learn. Cheers for the price increase today after a good Q1!. However, to be cautious moving forward.
Mabel. You can state your honest opinions and there's nothing wrong about it. Even if you were wrong it's only fair if you stated your HONEST opinion. I am highlighting you misquote Public TP of RM3.15 when it's obvious that they update to less than RM1.30 now. Now, that's called liar. JAKS is not doing well and i honestly thought of it's good prospect. I was wrong. I genuinely believed in it and asked my friends (not in i3 forum) to buy.
@Windy1974 Mabel. You can state your honest opinions and there's nothing wrong about it. Even if you were wrong it's only fair if you stated your HONEST opinion. I am highlighting you misquote Public TP of RM3.15 when it's obvious that they update to less than RM1.30 now. Now, that's called liar. JAKS is not doing well and i honestly thought of it's good prospect. I was wrong. I genuinely believed in it and asked my friends (not in i3 forum) to buy. 24/06/2020 10:27 AM
I'm just giving an example when the asker was stating that BA was not positive about Dayang's outlook. So I'm giving another flavour for the asker to think...
FYI, I usually don’t use TA as my guidelines. Usually I just rely on the team and I sometime used it as a supplement when I want to sell or buy. Do you guys know why?
Just look at all the Stock market research house. As you know, all of them uses TA to justify their entry price and selling price. All have them have the same historical share price which is the foundation for their charts. My question is, if all of them are having the same data, how come all of them come out with different price for buy and sell call? Why is there a difference?
The reason for the difference in buy/sell call price from different research house, they are different is because everyone using TA are just doing guessing work, aka gamble. Today this research house is right, tomorrow another research house is right... so who's TA formula is more accurate? Inconsistency in accuracy means they are nothing more than guessing work.
That is why some the long-term Investors say TA is rubbish.
Hence, don’t waste your time on TA, spend your time to learn about the company business, go and dig out real data from inside the company. Then you will see clearly what you are buying, when to enter and when not to enter. You will get exactly what you know about the company. For example, if you know the company is in serious financial trouble, don’t touch it.. but TA may still show you a very nice entry. You enter and suddenly TA proven wrong, you are dead.
One good example is Ikhmas. Last year, I entered Ikhmas based on my TA analysis. I decided to go ahead and buy as I was attracted with the ECRL Story and the fact that they have 800 million worth of contract based on the promotion at that time.
The company turn out to be a paint in a neck. I managed to cut my losses after it reached my threshold points. You can read my adventure in that company at the Ikhmas Forum. Hence, I treat Ikhmas as one of my learning curves. Honestly, Ikhmas is 50:50 chance to recover my investments if I continue to hold.
Like I said many times, if you have done your homework, there's nothing to fear.
@BabyAce From the report I read from Kenanga, MIDF and Public Invest, I can say they are honest with their findings...but don't take their TP too seriously. O&G industry is very specialized and like Windy1974 mentioned, normal people who don't do homework or not in the industry itself would not know what's happening. You can only understand how it works if you have friends in the industry itself and spending a lot of time talking to them and that's a lot of information you could learn. Cheers for the price increase today after a good Q1!. However, to be cautious moving forward. 24/06/2020 10:25 AM
Sure BabyAce...
Thanks and appreciate your analysis that you did yesterday...
Mabel. This will be my last comment. If you genuinely think that the research TP given by PublicInvest is based on Technical Analysis, then to a certain extent, i won't say you are misleading. However, if that's your understanding, and you seriously think you are investing and not gambling, do spend time and read about Fundamental to stock selection or just google fundamental analysis on stocks. I considered myself an investor and have been investing for 27 years and yet i am still an amateur when it came to investment. If you don't read and understand, you are putting your hard earned money and your future at risk. I have made terrible mistakes in stock market and i am the lucky one to survive. Good luck
Kenanga slashes earnings forecast on Dayang on weak outlook... market most of the time reacted differently from analysts as many may have been trapped by listening to them.
the TP of 3.15 is far fetching based on the forecasted EPS RM 0.225 and fwd PE 14. the fwd PE 14 is pretty high end.In my view,PE of 7 should be reasonable, given 7, the TP would be 1.50- 1.60 which is the reasonable range and could be achieved in the short to mid term.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
cckiong
242 posts
Posted by cckiong > 2020-06-23 18:31 | Report Abuse
The results are good