Goldman Sachs sees a correction in oil prices on the horizon even amid a significant recovery in the last month and the recent decision by OPEC and its allies to extend historically large production cuts through July.
“With oil now above $40/bbl, supplies will be incentivized to return, but we believe the risks to the downside have increased substantially and are now looking for a 15-20% correction which may already be underway after Monday’s modest sell-off,” Goldman Sachs’ commodities research team led by Jeffrey Currie wrote in an analyst note on Tuesday.
“Despite the rally, we have been hesitant to recommend a long position this early in the cycle for several reasons,” the analysts wrote.
Surplus oil inventory of an estimated 1 billion barrels has piled up as the world’s economic activity and travel remains largely at a standstill amid coronavirus fears.
There’s also widespread uncertainty over a demand rebound, with health authorities stressed the risk of a second wave of Covid-19 infections plunging countries back into lockdown.
Mabel , why these people want to make things complicated ? very simple . 1st .the demand for oil is weak due to slow recovery of world economy. 2nd ,oil stock is abundant now due to supply more than Demand .3rd, Mr.R is very pissed off with Uncle Sam. Mr. R wants to wipe out WTI industries extracting shale oil by increasing its production to flood the market with lower price ( currently Mr.R has agreed ( i think reluctantly) to cut production for one more month only. ). Mr.R wants to maintain the price of XXX at which WTI can not sustain its extraction and will go bust in the end. until all WTI is wiped out, Uncle Sam has no choice but to count on import of oil . when this happens, oil price will surge. your tell me now who is killing two birds with one stone ? In a nutshell, you wont see the oil price will surge sky high in the short to mid term.
BTW, do you want to know at what price Mr. R would like to maintain? anything more than that,Mr. R will set to increase production on its own disregard of OPEX which would trigger another plunge. Fearful or not ? I leave it to your judgement. Meanwhile, it is going to be alright.. i am fond of rubbing the fur of my pussy cat....
@joyvest Mabel , why these people want to make things complicated ? very simple . 1st .the demand for oil is weak due to slow recovery of world economy. 2nd ,oil stock is abundant now due to supply more than Demand .3rd, Mr.R is very pissed off with Uncle Sam. Mr. R wants to wipe out WTI industries extracting shale oil by increasing its production to flood the market with lower price ( currently Mr.R has agreed ( i think reluctantly) to cut production for one more month only. ). Mr.R wants to maintain the price of XXX at which WTI can not sustain its extraction and will go bust in the end. until all WTI is wiped out, Uncle Sam has no choice but to count on import of oil . when this happens, oil price will surge. your tell me now who is killing two birds with one stone ? In a nutshell, you wont see the oil price will surge sky high in the short to mid term.
BTW, do you want to know at what price Mr. R would like to maintain? anything more than that,Mr. R will set to increase production on its own disregard of OPEX which would trigger another plunge. Fearful or not ? I leave it to your judgement. Meanwhile, it is going to be alright.. i am fond of rubbing the fur of my pussy cat.... 10/06/2020 10:48 AM
Meow joyvest...
Been busy with the Gloves Fantastic Four and Inari..
Over the last 2 days I collected 4 batches of TG, HARTA and Supermax when it starts to retrace. This type of Grand Sales does not come too often..Really happy with my collections.
As per my comments in SuperMax, Although, it's a double edge swords, I loves Sharks. They help to bring the price down for our collections. Once they have collected enough during these retracement, they will definitely push up the price. Beside, they are also human.. They also wants to make money.. Embrace and accept them like your buddy. Whether you like it or not they are part of the playing fields. Once the selling stops, there's only one way to go.... Up!
I have been the O&G business ever since I reenter in KLSE after GE14. Oil price fluctuation is part of the playing fields has we have to manage them. It's no big deal as long you know how to manage your risk and cost as explained yesterday.
My Techs selection are also doing great. Inari, the supplier of Apple component and chips has been climbing this week. USD 350M sales from iPhone 12 will happen this year. Apple will enters super bull cycle. When that happens, Inari will also enter a super bull cycle. I will not be surprise if Inari will hit RM 2 first compare to Mabel Energy Serba and/or Dayang.
I suppose the same principle works for Dayang when the operator has collected enough. Just be patience or when we have one good news for Dayang. We went through the same cycle with Inari. Your cousin, GooSun is now completely silent...he has missed the boat. Inari is expected to break RM 2 this week.
Yes, Mable my boyfriend also love to cuddle me whenever he has the chance :)
@Rainbow0721 Hi Mabel.. what do you mean Dayang is sitting on P1 in your collection? 10/06/2020 11:47 AM
Yes that's correct Rainbow. Here are their ranking in term of margiin.
1. Dayang 2. Serbadk Dinamik 3. Alam Maritime 4. Armada and Yinson 5. HengYuan (Shell) and MMC 6. Velesto 7. Dialog and KNM 8. ICON 9. Sapnrg 10. T7 Global 11. Hibiscus and Reach 12 TH Heavy, Scomies, Barakah*
Currently Serba is just behind Dayang in term of Margin. The reason is because I have not unleashed fully my Serba shares. Once that is done at the right price, it will shoot to pole position easily.
Mabel's 18 Battleships cover the entire span of Oil & Gas Supply Chain: Upstream, Middle Stream and Downstream.
* All 3 PN17 Potential Turnaround Battleships are consolidated under Scomies. TH Heavy and Scomies have registered 2 Consecutive Profits while Barakah has registered its 1st profits. Regulation Plan has been extended by 24 months due to Convid -19 Pandemic.
Yes all of them are giving positive margin.It's all about managing risk, the rest is Technology.
@DreamHunter I guess you dont like Naim then 11/06/2020 2:21 AM
Meow....
Same reason why I choose Inari instead of Insas.. Inari closed at RM 1.71 yesterday while Insas closed at RM 0.67 cents :)
Sure I will consider Naim when I unleashed my Dayang and the right price. Beside, I have already a list of construction 7 companies under my Construction portfolio..
Wait lah... Will join you and Calvin when the time is right just like what happened in Hartalega. I was invited by kk7168 to join him at Hartalega when both of us were engaged in Greatec. At that time I told him, I will join him when the time is right..
Sure enough, when Teresa Kok announced that we are donating 18 million gloves late last year to China to help them fight the Coronavirus, I decided to help and joined the bandwagon. Not only I invested in Hartalega, I also invested in Top Gloves, Kossan and Supermax..the Gloves Fantastic Four to help China and the World Community to fight this pandemic Covid19..
It's my way of giving back after winning so much..
It's all in the family, when Dayang prevail, so will Naim. So what you are doing in Naim is also helping the team here..
Oil is the second sun power on earth, it's an essential items, soon the over stock reserve shall diminished and sent the oil counter uptrend again. Certainly i'm keeping my share and wait for that right moment to come. We may have lost the battle but we have not lost the War's.
Mabel.how?the fantastic 4 have become donald ducks walking lamely.is it the sign of gameover? Your view on the extent of how far we can go from now? I know patience is virtue but procrastination is the thief of time and opportunity cost too.the longer we stay ,the riskier of busting we face....
Tesla, electric car...renewable energy is cominh to the town..hahaha..will oil produce country getting worst and fear soonor later..maybe selling is better choice...hahah
@joyvest Mabel.how?the fantastic 4 have become donald ducks walking lamely.is it the sign of gameover? Your view on the extent of how far we can go from now? I know patience is virtue but procrastination is the thief of time and opportunity cost too.the longer we stay ,the riskier of busting we face...
11/06/2020 9:27 PM
Meow joyvest...
Rest assured, I'm fully committed to continue to stay on board with the Fantastic Four ever since Teresa announced that Malaysia is donating 18 million Gloves to China early this year. Beside helping China, these Gloves Fantastic Four are also helping World Community to fight this pandemic Covid19. So when comes to Gloves, it's about giving back after winning so much. Money hereby become secondary. Don't get greedy or you will never make a profit
Over the last 2 days, I have been collecting Harta, 4 batches of Top Gloves and 2 batches of Supermax. Today I collected another 2 batches of Top Gloves making it a total of 6 batches of TG collection over the 3 days..
Top Gloves has just released its Q120 reports. Net Profit RM 347 millions... Spectacular result more than 3x compare to last Q. Note that this Q is from Feb to May, where covid is highest todate
Last Q, the trading price is RM5..now more than RM16.70..also 3x. Hence the market is really efficient. If going forward Net Profit can increase or maintain, then price may adjust upwards again
Beside uncertainty in Malaysia politics, Dow futures drop 700 points on virus second wave concern. Only healthcare and tech related are top gainer. Currently my Tech sector has moved to P1 thanks to Inari, MyEG, Greatec, Penta etc etc. My Health Care selection now has dropped from P2 to P12 mainly due these accumulation over the last 3 days. That's what happen when you BUY, your margin reduces. Nevertheless, it's still a very health with a double digit margin in %.
"Kenyataan Di FB oleh Kementerian Kesihatan Msia (11.06.2020 @ 4.30pm)
Negara Brazil mencatatkan kenaikan jumlah kes harian melebihi 4 kali ganda iaitu 65,004 kes berbanding semalam iaitu 15,654 kes dan menjadikan negara ini mempunyai bilangan kes harian yang tertinggi di dunia.
Negara dari Amerika Latin ini juga menduduki tangga kedua selapas negara Amerika Syarikat bagi jumlah kes COVID-19 seluruh negara di dunia."
YOU can expect the demand in gloves will continue to rise together with other healthcare-related businesses. FYI, AT today command TOP VOLUMES in Bursa. Earlier, it was just a penny Tech stock. However when they position themselves into Health Care, the share price climb 300%.
Global demand for rubber gloves is estimated to reach 300 billion gloves this year, with an expected annual growth of 12%. Of that, 188 billion gloves will be produced by Malaysia which is the world’s largest producer and the leading exporter of rubber gloves, contributing 63% of the global supply. Most of the supply are coming from this Fantastic Four.
Today bursa about 950 counters are down. Hence I have used this opportunity to strengthen my position into Serbadk (collected two batches), Armada (also 2 batches) while the remaining queue are still waiting to be matched including Dayang. Will continue to monitor as we progress.
Lastly but least, train yourself to approach the market with discipline and avoid decisions based on emotions than you will be fine..
Is ok, is within most expectation. Oil price is estimated to increase at least 20% soon.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its oil price forecasts for 2020 and beyond, The EIA now expects the Brent spot price to average $38.02 per barrel this year and $47.88 per barrel in 2021.
will fall today. if u believe in its future, then different stories. 
Brent crude futures fell US$3.18, or 7.6%, to settle at $38.55 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $3.26, or 8.2%, to settle at $36.34 a barrel. Brent and WTI posted their worst daily drops since April 21 and 27, respectively.
NEW YORK: Oil prices tumbled about 8% a barrel on Thursday, fuelled by renewed concerns about demand destruction as new cases of coronavirus tick up globally, while crude inventories hit a record in the United States.
U.S. coronavirus cases surpassed 2 million on Wednesday, according to a Reuters tally, and new infections are rising slightly after five weeks of declines. While most states have loosened restrictions on movement that shackled demand, fuel consumption remains 20% below typical levels, as consumers remain cautious.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has expressed concern that this will continue, limiting demand.
"A series of local spikes could have the effect of undermining people's confidence in travelling, in restaurants, entertainment," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday.
Brent crude futures fell US$3.18, or 7.6%, to settle at $38.55 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $3.26, or 8.2%, to settle at $36.34 a barrel. Brent and WTI posted their worst daily drops since April 21 and 27, respectively.
The weakness extended to other asset classes. Equity markets dropped, with the S
Hi Mabel.. can you share how to train our mindset to be like an investor.. How you first started approaching the share market.. I am not sure about other beginner.. I have the tendency to look at the share price everyday and get emotionally affected when it goes up and down..
@Rainbow0721 Hi Mabel.. can you share how to train our mindset to be like an investor.. How you first started approaching the share market.. I am not sure about other beginner.. I have the tendency to look at the share price everyday and get emotionally affected when it goes up and down.. 12/06/2020 10:10 AM
Sure Rainbow,
This is what I usually advice anyone who want to enter the stock market.
There's two ways to play stock market
1. Get a proper lesson how to trade. Buying shares requires extensive research on what, why and when. The other part is trading. You need to learn how and when to log your profits. This requires some skills on when to lock your profits and this is a continuous learning process.
2. If you can’t do the above item 1, get remiser to assist you.
What I usually do is to advise which counter to go. The rest is up to each individual when they want to lock their profits as its very dependent on each individual risk appetite and how much capital they have.
This is what I will be focusing next week.
1. Right now, trending is still Gloves. I will continue looking for bargain whenever there's a retracement. If you are interested to play a part to fight C19, Go for the Fantastic Four. Please scroll up what I shared earlier. This week, I have been collecting 2 batches of Harta, 6 batches of Top Gloves and 2 batches of Supermax.
2. Another area that I will be focusing is oil and gas. Right now I'm watching with interest the following:
1. Serba and Dayang 2. Armada and KNM
In addition, I'm also watching Velesto and HengYuan
3. I'm also watching with interest my collection of Tech stock, the race between Inari and MyeG.
4. Next wave is property sector due to HOC. Right now I'm looking at
1. Sime properties 2. Spsetia
5. Next wave will be Plantation. I'm currently looking at
1. KL Kepong 2. FGV
Another alternative if don’t have time for paid classroom lesson, go into YouTube, there's lots of on line lessons you can learn to continue your skills on trading and investing.
You can also apply what you learn from your field into investing in Stock Market.
Most of the business skills I learned in my line of work are also being applied when I made my investment and consequently managing these companies in KLSE and Nasdaq..
So, nothing is really lost and as we know it’s all about lifelong learning process.
These things keep you on your toes beside having something to look forward to each day.
Take one step at a time. The most important thing is to create a success story to build your confidence. Once you get the whole idea,it will be smooth sailing..
Lastly but not least, The risk is on YOU since it’s your money. This you need to understand.
A teacher may have 100 students. Not all of them will be successful. Only a handful. It requires discipline. To play in the share market you need to be fully committed. If not fully better stay away as many people lose their money in Stock Market. Based on statistics.. 90% of them loose money..
Probably the next question is...if based on statistics 90 % make do not money who are the clear winners.
The clear winner are the Investments Banks and the Operators that handle each stock and the 10%. of the Investors. The 1st is because they have the fund. The 2nd because they have inside information. Information is very important. That’s why the remaining successful 10% of the investors works in Team. This mean they share and benchmark with each other’s i.e. learning from each other’s.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Siau Siau Boon Seng
74 posts
Posted by Siau Siau Boon Seng > 2020-06-10 08:57 | Report Abuse
油还是会再起,我看今天还是明天,应该会到45块,还是43块一桶美金