"Everybody who making money on this counter should give 1% to 2% of profit to good charity in thailand when the right time to cash out. We make money becuase JCY benefit so much from flood and flood affect so people in thailand. Lets give something back otherwise will not be very good for future prosperity." - Lamken Jjtrader, congrats! Hope tat you consider Lamken'ssuggestion, also a meaningful way to appreciate his selfless sharing. One possible channel is Red Cross Thailand - http://english.redcross.or.th/home
Congrats to the ones that aimed for IPO price and sold. The ones that are still holding, much much more action to come for all of you.In case you are all wondering I have not sold any of my mother. Iam also holding many of the warrants. My paper profit to date for both mother and all my warrants is close to RM1.2m (I bought warrants when they were under .20 and collected alot more mother under 1.15).This might sound like alot but my currency is worth about 3x more. This does not mean you should start following me either. You need to do your own risk analysis and make your own buying/selling decisions.
Many questions have been raised about the warrants. The most important question you need to ask yourself is this, is the warrant overvalued or the mother undervalued?? Does the mother need to catch up to parity with the warrants or does the warrants need to fall back to meet the current mother price? You should all know what the answer is.
Another thing to consider is this, there are now about 6 call warrants in the market for JCY (excluding the put warrant) with each one issueing about on average 100m warrants. This means there is a total of about 600m warrants (approximately) in the open market. In order for all the warrant issuers to fully hedge themselves, they need a total of 300m mother share. And how much mother share is there availible on the open market again, yes thats right 500m mother share. Except for OSK, most of the warrant issuers have not fully hedged yet but that will change very soon when the first milestone I hinted about earlier is met. When this happens all the warrant issuers will be forced to hedge, but the question is there going to be enough mother left for them all? A shortage of mother share is coming, and what happens when there is a shortage? You should know the answer to this one as well. Our mother share is going to become very valuable indeed.
Now onto more important matters, there will be 2 appetizers (the 2 short term mile stone I told you about earlier) served to us very shortly which should bring the mother past 2.00 and force all the warrant issuers to fully hedge. How high the price will go after that when all the warrant issuers start hedging is something we can only wait and see but I can tell you Iam looking forward to it. I will talk about the first appetizer shortly when the time is right.
Finally for those that bought mother a while back, remember it is always nearly impossible to buy at lowest and sell at highest. Now is also a good time for you to get out if the risks is too high for you personally. For me, I will hold evetyhing until my target is reached because I have advantage and also willing to use my profit to hedge against the risks so the risk to me is very low. Please do not follow me and make your own buying/selling decisions.
Lamken, Thank you very much for such valuable info and comments, it was indeed very nice profit for you. Also, I'm have not sold any of the mother shares yet too, the current price was nice but was not reflecting the true value of this company, not anyway close though...i will continue holding it till it reaches my target. Judging from your use of 'appetizers', guess the show just about to begin...let's just wait and see more actions when the results out in the next few weeks. Happy trading and cheers! Congrats to those who made their wonderful profits!
hi Lamken, im new here, so correct me if im wrong. i understand many of the cw issuers have some arrangements with major shareholders to borrow their scripts (for a price of course) with regard to their cw issues. This will not affect the shareholders cos the cws are cash settled on maturity. So coming back to the shortage of the mother stocks...could it be that there may not be such a shortage after all? And thanks for sharing your ideas in this forum.
Thanks Lamken...I Managed to make little more by call in at 1.2!!!! Any suggestion for other hot pick counter???Please drop me a mail @ c_plus5@hotmail.com.
nothing is free in stock market, the reason why the price get pushing up for the past 1-2 weeks mainly because those bank want to sell their CW with higher price and hedging.
make it simple, they just gonna suck the blood of everyone, if there is no one buying all the CW, there will be no hedging for banks , no hedging means price will stagnant.
when the maturity date is coming, they will dump all the share they hedging to make mother share down , so that they dont have to pay for CW.
my opinion? Bursa should have some kind of anti-dumping law.
Khoob: good question but I cannot answer your question without talking about appetizer 1 which I cannot go into at this point in time. You will see very soon if is a shortage, not long to go.
lamken: ive just spent some time going back this tread (not finished yet, he he)and thats quite a lot to digest. And youve contributed alot to this JCY counter with your positive postings and research. Thanks and looking forward to your JCY Appetiser 1.
nostalgic89 : Youre right. Its cash settled that's why there wont be a shortage. But the issue is they are not able to control the mother price volatility, thus theyre required to hedge.
Donated 1.8 % of JCY net profit to Thai Red Cross (donation confirmation ref no 20120427092415-25550) for the project Donate to help flood victims in Thailand as suggested by Lamken. cheer and Happy trading :D !
Hi Lamken, your information about JCY is most appreciated. however, i still have some queries. hence, please answer my question below. thank you.
2)regarding the future surge of demand in JCY- mother shares, is there a possibility that all the investment banks team up to dump the shares to lower the prices before the warrant exercise dates? thus, the surge in demand in JCY- mother shares would not occur.
Lamken, please add me in your email list as I would like to be updated with your informative advice regarding shares trading.
The already have team up whether directly or indirectly. This is why when I talk about the warrants i refer to the total warrant in the market, I do not care about how many warrant each individual CW issuer issue. You have to change your mindset to one where all the CW issuer are one big single party (lets call them cowboys for now). Now, in order to be able to press the price, the cowboys have to buy/borrow mother, without mother share they cannot do anything to the mother price at all.
Now if no one does anything, that mean JCY mother will forever be artificially control by the cowboys and high risk mother share will be totally smashed when warrant expiry come around even if the company earning keep growing ( you saw this in Feb, despite excellent earnings mother price got hammered from high of 1.50 to a low of 1.07 within the space of 2-3 months). We saw what 1 cowboy alone, now you dealing with 4.
Now my question to you all from a shareholders perspective, is who has the most to lose from this?
Iam expecting you all to name 3 key players for me. To make it easier, for you , you will find the name of 2 of them in the most recent article on JCY in the business times.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
usry
1,202 posts
Posted by usry > 2012-04-26 09:36 | Report Abuse
seller start coming.. look like today the price will down to find new support.