Posted by kk123 > 2014-02-22 19:10 | Report Abuse

Insolvency can be caused by poor cashflow
If many buyers cancel their unit
Then ivory will be finish

Posted by impartiality > 2014-02-23 15:50 | Report Abuse

Or banks cancel their credit facility . Many banks have strict covenants that need to be adhered to such as max gearing. Once facility is cancelled all amounts due are payable immediately on demand. Their operational profit this quarter will be low it's a matter of whether they can find any more one off gains such as revaluation or disposal to fool people again

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 14:23 | Report Abuse

penaang world city phase 1 sold 97%

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 15:20 | Report Abuse

hello ? anybody home ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 15:22 | Report Abuse

maybe he is busy with his fund manager boss...

Posted by impartiality > 2014-02-27 18:55 | Report Abuse

Show proof that you are not ah hot dog propaganda manager u might as well say that it's going to make 100 mil next quarter

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 19:07 | Report Abuse

ivory just released results. Latest quarter net profit RM8m. Purely operational, no exceptional item.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 19:08 | Report Abuse

so who is talking facts ? who is doing propaganda ? you or me ?

Posted by Yunnan > 2014-02-27 19:15 | Report Abuse

Finally Ivory is showing some operational profit. It has performed badly compared to Tambun and Hua Yang since listing.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 19:19 | Report Abuse

yunnan you got Ivory or not ? I used to own Ivory-Wa, but few days ago took the opportunity to switch to mother share.

Posted by robbin65 > 2014-02-27 21:11 | Report Abuse

No need to made 100 million a quarter, if can keep this level, made 8 million per quarter, total 32 miilion for 2014 i will be very satisfied already.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 21:18 | Report Abuse

Robbin, ivory traditionally made about RM30m net profit (I would say this is their natural capacity, before Penang World City). It is only these one year plus they screwed up the P&L. A lot of people felt that they mismanaged. But I choose to give them benefit of doubt that it was expenses incurred to nurture Penang World City. If you looked at their previous quarter carefully, you will notice they already turned around operationally (about RM12m PBT, which translate into RM8m net profit), However, there were losses at JV level and associate level of about RM7m. Hence last quarter they only break even. This quarter the associate and JV losses are not there, hence they reported RM8m net profit

Posted by robbin65 > 2014-02-27 21:27 | Report Abuse

Kanasai, still very high operational expenses, 19 million for the quarter just released.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 21:28 | Report Abuse

Don't pop the champagne yet. Based on my experience, companies at this stage usually produce erratic results, until the mother of all big profit comes into full force (in this case, their 45% in Penang World City). Then their profit will shift decisively from the current level to a totally new level. We haven't reached that stage yet, so there is risk of up and down over next one to two years.

Posted by slowslow > 2014-02-27 21:30 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, well done. i like to read lot of your posts on different counter page. You are really got the point. Thanks for the good contribution. Gambadesu. :) thx

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 21:30 | Report Abuse

Robbin, don't read too much into the expenses. There must be a reason behind that number. Until we have concrete proof that they are mismanaging, let's give them benefit of doubt.

Not that I am siding with ivory boss. I am just being objective. The same principle applies to ALL companies I invested in

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 21:31 | Report Abuse

Slowslow thank you thank you. We share share ideas. If you got good tips, happy to hear from you too.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 21:47 | Report Abuse

There is something very unique about ivory JV with Tropicana. Ivory is not only the developer (45%), it is also the contractor. Meaning that they not only book in their share of development profit, they also make money from construction. In this latest quarter financial notes, the company used a very unusual term to describe their contracting activities for the JV "Tropicana Ivory (the JV entity) awarded us a whopping RM400m contract".

The word "whopping" almost make me spill my coffee

Implication is that while waiting to book in property profit in phases, they can at the early stage continuously recognize construction profit, which smoothen out their earnings.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 21:55 | Report Abuse

Ivory has borrowings of RM300m. Certain people feel that this could be an issue as shareholders funds is not that big, meaning gearing will be correspondingly high.

However, based on my experience, usually banks won't simply lend money to developer without ascertaining source of repayment. In other words, these loans are likely project debt (backed by cash flow from various projects) and had no recourse to holding company. I did a quick check of the annual report, there is zero debt at company level. So there is possibility that those are indeed project debts.

However, let's not rush into conclusion. Let's remain vigilant and keep an eye on this item in the future. Being objective is important

Posted by Yunnan > 2014-02-27 22:01 | Report Abuse

If I am not mistaken, the land cost for Penang World City is repayable over 10 years. The land in Penang Island has appreciated and will continue to be high due to scarcity of land for development. It is a RM10 Billion project

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 22:03 | Report Abuse

Yes.

Posted by Yunnan > 2014-02-27 22:03 | Report Abuse

I bought ivory and its warrant last year when the prices surged and now sangkut. Still below my cost.

Posted by Yunnan > 2014-02-27 22:06 | Report Abuse

Hopefully subsequent quarters result will improve to push up the shares price

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 22:09 | Report Abuse

Another potential catalyst for ivory is their bid for Plaza Rakyat (abandon project next to pudu raya). That project is of course potentially very lucrative. However, I have mixed feeling, as ivory balance sheet not exactly that strong to gear up further. However, the company has indicated that they might resort to equity. So either this come in the form of rights issue (they already did one around two years ago) or private placement. Too early to ascertain what is the impact.

let's wait and see

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 22:10 | Report Abuse

Don't think you sangkut big time. Highest it went last year was 70+ ? I think you have chance to recover, and also make profit. I targeting RM1.20

Posted by robbin65 > 2014-02-27 22:13 | Report Abuse

400 million contract for high rise construction may be taken 3 years to complete.....

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 22:19 | Report Abuse

Every year 130m revenue. Based on 5% net margin, about RM6.5m net profit enhancement per annum.

But RM400m is only the beginning. The entire contract is RM10 billion, over eight years (not really ten years, yunnan, according to circular for previous rights issue)

Posted by Yunnan > 2014-02-27 22:26 | Report Abuse

Thank you for your advice. I bought ivory at 0.75 and warrant at 0.31 , almost the peak before they fall.

Posted by robbin65 > 2014-02-27 22:27 | Report Abuse

So the 《whopping 》contract value is only 130m per annum, and the operating expenses is 63m per annum.......

Posted by Yunnan > 2014-02-27 22:27 | Report Abuse

If compare to Hua Yang or Tambun which were listed almost same time, ivory is really under perform.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 22:30 | Report Abuse

Yes. But every laggard has its time. That is why the smart money should go to ivory. Tambun and hua yang is TOO famous. No more early bird benefit

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 22:32 | Report Abuse

I am conservative when I say 1.20. Deep in my heart, there is a remote chance that it can go 2.00

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 22:34 | Report Abuse

Guys don't blame me if lose money, ok ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 22:36 | Report Abuse

But my past record is 9 out of 10 times correct. Ke ke

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 22:38 | Report Abuse

Screwed up counters included heavea in 2011 and rexit around 2007
Other than that， ，mostly ok

Posted by robbin65 > 2014-02-27 22:39 | Report Abuse

Ivory could be the 1 out of your 10.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-27 22:39 | Report Abuse

Ha ha (laughing nervously)

Posted by Devil86 > 2014-02-27 22:49 | Report Abuse

I support you Icon8888

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-28 08:13 | Report Abuse

What is the unbilled sales for Ivory?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-28 09:28 | Report Abuse

dont know the exact figures woh... lack of info... (nobody covers this stock). But they have multiple projects ongoing (100% owned) and the 45% Tropicana Ivory JV. Tropicanaa released investor presentation few days ago, whcih shed some light on thr JV Co. please refer link below

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-28 09:29 | Report Abuse

http://ir.chartnexus.com/tropicana/docs/TCB%20FY13%20Corporate%20Presentation.pdf

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-28 09:29 | Report Abuse

i took the opportunity this morning to top up position in Warrants (300k). Nice

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-28 09:37 | Report Abuse

according to page 40, the JV Co launched RM620m in September 2013 (at RM700 psf, if I remember corerctly) and had acheived 97% take up rate. They are launching RM122m in Q1 2014. Another RM636m by 2H 2014. By end of 2014, total launched would have been RM1.38 billion. But of course I couldnt be wishful thinking and say that the 2014 launch will have high taken up rate (I leave it to different people to make different assumption). But my guess is that properties facing the sea shouldnt be difficult to sell loh....

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-28 10:05 | Report Abuse

where u get this ?

Posted by sephiroth > 2014-02-28 10:08 | Report Abuse

every quarter bleeding cash(negative cash flow from operation)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-28 10:08 | Report Abuse

their annual revenue about RM300m

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-28 10:10 | Report Abuse

hi good morning

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-28 10:13 | Report Abuse

thanks for pointing out, let me study this aspect of the group. Will revert

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-28 10:16 | Report Abuse

Your link above.

Posted by sephiroth > 2014-02-28 10:19 | Report Abuse

ivory's receivables are very high at RM144.44m
Without drawdown of term loans and bridging loans of RM111m, cash balance would have been -RM84.2m