Global polyethylene markets will enter 2020 facing oversupply and pressured prices, with demand expected to lag behind throughout the year.
Asia, Europe and Turkey see similar challenges with abundant resin supply amid economic slowdowns and continued uncertainty stemming from the US-China trade TENSION.
Thirteen new PE plants in the first wave of startups from 2017-2019 will increase North American PE capacity by 35% to more than 27 million mt/year. The 15 plants slated to start up through the 2020s will push that overall capacity up by another 26% to 34.35 million mt/year.
Prices are showing oversupply pressure. By early November 2019, HDPE blowmolding prices had fallen 43% to $782/mt FAS Houston since mid-March 2018. In the same span, LLDPE fell 41% to $772/mt FAS, and LDPE fell 37% to $871/mt FAS.
At least one of the new plants slated to start up by year-end 2019 will ramp up in early 2020, that being LyondellBasell's new 550,000 HDPE plant alongside the Houston Ship Channel. The plant had been slated for startup in mid-2019. However, market participants expect price pressure from oversupply to linger into 2020.
"We don't see prices rising in Q1 2020," a PE trader said. Globally, there's already so much supply."
A weak 2020 awaits both sellers and buyers as they grapple with anticipated reduced consumer demand.
In the same vein as Europe, supply is expected to remain abundant in the Turkish market amid incoming US volumes with structurally low demand. 05/12/2019 4:38 PM
Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > Sep 5, 2019 12:06 AM | Report Abuse
Pchem collapsing? Don't make me laugh. 50 billion dollar company with 4.3 billion in revenue and 1.1 billion in profit AFTER TAX and a horde of cash behind it.
I am just enjoying collecting my 11 +18 cents dividend since February when I started buying at 8.15 collecting my 11 +18 cents dividend
SO?
COST OF PURCHASE Rm8.15
Less 29 sen dividend = Rm7.86
Price now Rm6.83
SO REAL LOST OF Rm1.03 PER SHARE
IS THIS PHILIP IN HIS RIGHT MIND?
YOU BETTER DON'T LEAD SORCHAI TO HOLLAND HOR! 05/09/2019 12:14 AM
Perhaps the growth investors in this forum would like to look at a takaful insurance co that is experiencing an inflection point and a structural shift to islamic insurance..
Net profit grew by CAGR 25% over the last 10 years from 38mil (2009) to 380m (T4Q), increasing even through the global financial crisis and recession, with a still low takaful penetration of 16% (overall insurance penetration rate of only 50% with takaful growing much faster than conventional) that is currently trading at a PE 12.7x / P/BV 3.6x (historical P/BV 6.x)
(AlgoQuant) A Takaful Titan & Analysis of Listed Insurance Companies (TAKAFUL)
I bought tons at 6.60 and averaged down, now price of pchem is RM6.83,
I didnt sell a single share, did you?
So if didnt sell a single share the share price now go up to RM7.24, your point is?
>>>>> calvintaneng Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > Sep 5, 2019 12:06 AM | Report Abuse
Pchem collapsing? Don't make me laugh. 50 billion dollar company with 4.3 billion in revenue and 1.1 billion in profit AFTER TAX and a horde of cash behind it.
I am just enjoying collecting my 11 +18 cents dividend since February when I started buying at 8.15 collecting my 11 +18 cents dividend
SO?
COST OF PURCHASE Rm8.15
Less 29 sen dividend = Rm7.86
Price now Rm6.83
SO REAL LOST OF Rm1.03 PER SHARE
IS THIS PHILIP IN HIS RIGHT MIND?
YOU BETTER DON'T LEAD SORCHAI TO HOLLAND HOR! 05/09/2019 12:14 AM 09/12/2019 11:14 PM
You can check online portfolio at any point of time to see if I do window dressing. So far I think I'm one of the few ones who keep an active online portfolio that shows all my purchases.
Why U-turn? It s already on a multi year low before.
Next year IPIC completion, tenfold production. Oil prices can only go up as artificial shortage is orchestrated by OPEC.
As prices to up, selling costs for Pchem will increase, while they maintained their standard 25% net margins.
It's one of the few companies in Bursa where I can predict long term growth in revenues and earnings, while I enjoy big fat dividends that will keep increasing as time passes.
Ho ho cal... vin.. u said on cruise ship to Thailand n Cambodia.. tv8 news that a cruise ship is collided near koh sumai.. U wrote u r near koh sumai.. when asked u..u said no collision.then said is at the Phuket one.. who lie...
Why be worried? When it happens it happens. If not q4 the 2020. The structure is already complete, Aramco has already started the charters to deliver oil to PIC.
When the revenue starts coming in, the discount year will be ongoing.
One thing it will never be is another lctitan. The production costs are too lucrative with such a large centralised production and refining center, the cash hoard too big for them to cut corners and be cheap, and the addressable market is too large to be ignored.
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Posted by monetary > 2019-11-24 08:53 | Report Abuse
good info. noted with thanks. hope 7 won't pecah too soon. coz my $ is invested somewhere else.