Posted by mobidick > 2019-09-17 15:17 | Report Abuse

Market noise or not, management have given guidance there is plant shutdown that will affect short term price and profit. No one doubt pchem have strong fundamental and will grow to be as high as other pet related co, but if already know this qtr will be red why defend the price?

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-17 15:20 | Report Abuse

It will take the Saudis a long time (definitely more than 6 months) to fix its oil facilities but Russia & other OPEC countries will definitely pump out more oil almost immediately to fill the vacuum left by the Saudis as well as to take advantage of the spike in oil price (eventually bringing down the oil price again) while thee challenges of the petrochemical industry remain unchanged in the coming quarters.

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mobidick: Sudden reversal looks more like a reaction due to oil price spiking up. If that is the case then its unsustainable. Could be related to the saudi oil plant shutdown. What if saudi able to fix the plant within this month? Oil supply stabilize so oil futures price drop back down? So pchem back down? Very likely.
17/09/2019 11:44 AM
------------------------------------

Posted by mobidick > 2019-09-17 15:27 | Report Abuse

Oh i see, makes sense for them to pump, i dont have holdings anymore in pchem but can reenter when i dont see any jigsaw movement like this. Good to know

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-17 15:33 | Report Abuse

Hehehe..... I also don't like this kind of sudden jigsaw movement (very unpredictable & risky).

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-17 15:44 | Report Abuse

It looks like PCHEM is heading towards RM8.00; anyway, the entry risk is very high at current price (RM7.72).

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > 2019-09-17 15:49 | Report Abuse

I repeat here a word of wisdom that has guided my investment philosophy since I bought ql in 2009 and never sold a single share since.

From Philip fisher:

Conversely, as such a stock rises to, say, 50 or 60 or 70, the urge to sell and take a profit now that the stock is “high” becomes irresistible to many people. Giving in to this urge can be very costly. This is because the genuinely worthwhile profits in stock investing have come from holding the surprisingly large number of stocks that have gone up many times from their original cost. The only true test of whether a stock is “cheap” or “high” is not its current price in relation to some former price, no matter how accustomed we may have become to that former price, but whether the company’s fundamentals are significantly more or less favorable than the current financial-community appraisal of that stock.

From my understanding, pchem did not guide towards reduced profit next quarter ( I may be totally wrong on this, RainT monitors short term reports far more accurately than an old man like me), as much as they have guided towards a planned turnaround of a few of their plants in the quarter. But as I understand it they have also increased the number of inventory stockup to meet this production shortage. So I may be wrong on a profit reduction, then again I am also usually wrong on my stock purchase timing,( but rarely wrong on the stock itself).

In either case: to each his own. Everyone has their own way of making money. As long as we all make money from the forum, I am happy for you haha.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Sslee Dear Philip
Peace, manage to sold some Pchem for quick profit, will buy back some during discount day as everyone is expecting reduce profit for next quarter.
17/09/2019 12:59 PM

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-17 16:07 | Report Abuse

Those who are willing to hold more risks for longer period (several years) will tend to make more profits (however, no guarantee.... may lose more instead) and those who take smaller risks for shorter period (short term) must be contented with less profit (however, this can be compensated by more frequent profit opportunities).

Posted by Jaya > 2019-09-17 16:32 | Report Abuse

Last chance
Tomorrow 8.00

Posted by Titan > 2019-09-17 16:55 | Report Abuse

Technically, buying momentum still strong. Ride the trend loh.....

Posted by Titan > 2019-09-17 17:03 | Report Abuse

Wahhh...Pchem close 777.....jackpot ah???....lol....

Posted by icecool > 2019-09-17 17:03 | Report Abuse

meletup

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2019-09-17 17:29 | Report Abuse

777 one week later 888

Market is always right , market always kill idiot and feed smart.

Posted by Sslee > 2019-09-17 18:02 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Learn some trading from qqq3 and stockraider but I only trade stocks with solid balance sheet and price volatility (due to internal and external factor). Pchem cash rich, pay dividend oppose to Armada high debt and no dividend (favor of qqq3 and stockraider)

Pchem 4 week Range: 6.75-7.74 and 52 weeks range: 6.75-10.20. I had developed a system to trade Pchem. At every 50 cents level, I will buy a batch. Sold off the recent batch bought during discount day to take profit as most likely if with reduce net profit for next quarter should be able to buy back during discount day. By the way Hlebroking pay interest on cash balance maintained in your trust account.

Thank you

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-17 18:08 | Report Abuse

If that is the case, then 2 weeks later 999 loh (u think possible or not?).... hehehe (what an interesting way of reasoning).

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
PotentialGhost: 777 one week later 888

Market is always right , market always kill idiot and feed smart.
17/09/2019 5:29 PM
------------------------------------------

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-17 18:45 | Report Abuse

There is a weak resistance at RM7.86 (it may be possible to break above this) and a strong resistance at RM7.98 (price may get stuck around RM8.00, so any further upside may be limited). For trend followers, this spike in price currently look more like a technical rebound rather than a clearly established uptrend (although it is possible for this technical rebound to turn into a real uptrend if the price keeps going up). Entering at current price is at high risk of getting trap should there be a reversal in price movement later (looks likely). Trade at your own risk.

Posted by Jaya > 2019-09-18 08:42 | Report Abuse

Buy buy buy

Posted by mobidick > 2019-09-18 09:08 | Report Abuse

As expected oil output normalised end of month or early next month. Not only that everyone currently pumping extra to "normalised"(take advantage secure market share) supply is pumping above normal; US also releasing its reserves. So all this combine can cause surplus. Who knows how much. Question will other countries reduce pump once supply "normalise". I doubt russia would.. so why would others

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/oil-slips-following-the-biggest-climb-in-history-after-saudi-attacks.html

Posted by Jaya > 2019-09-18 09:24 | Report Abuse

Temporary hicup
Buy before it start flying again
Today sure can make money la

Posted by RainT > 2019-09-18 09:39 | Report Abuse

@Philip

if u manage to find that gem (solid and undervalued currently as PCHEM with huge cash hoard, an incredible 10 year future, and a monopoly of the local market like no other)

do share with us ya!

nowadays not much already

Posted by kingb > 2019-09-18 11:38 | Report Abuse

Buy queue so strong.

Posted by Jaya > 2019-09-18 20:06 | Report Abuse

Where is Calvin
Run and hide ha
Phillip is ok
But 8.50 coming brothers & sisters

Posted by 3iii > 2019-09-18 20:17 | Report Abuse

>>>

Posted by Sslee > Sep 17, 2019 6:02 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Learn some trading from qqq3 and stockraider but I only trade stocks with solid balance sheet and price volatility (due to internal and external factor). Pchem cash rich, pay dividend oppose to Armada high debt and no dividend (favor of qqq3 and stockraider)

Pchem 4 week Range: 6.75-7.74 and 52 weeks range: 6.75-10.20. I had developed a system to trade Pchem. At every 50 cents level, I will buy a batch. Sold off the recent batch bought during discount day to take profit as most likely if with reduce net profit for next quarter should be able to buy back during discount day. By the way Hlebroking pay interest on cash balance maintained in your trust account.

Thank you

>>>>



Poor Soul

I have not known of anyone who has grown fabulously rich trading stocks. Have you?

I know of many who are fabulously rich owning great stocks for a very long time.

Posted by Sslee > 2019-09-18 20:26 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha,
3iii may I ask is Mr. Koon fabulously rich by not holding great stocks for very long period of time?
Are you fabulously rich by holding great stocks for very long time?

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-19 09:32 | Report Abuse

There are many sharks (operators or syndicates or whatever u want to call them) and proprietary day traders (PDT) that are fabulously rich but they don't share their trade secrets or report their wealth. These people are definitely not long term investors.... they are speculators/manipulators and day traders.

Posted by bursatrader2018 > 2019-09-19 10:01 | Report Abuse

'I have not known of anyone who has grown fabulously rich trading stocks. Have you?
I know of many who are fabulously rich owning great stocks for a very long time.'

i think the above chiche is silly thinking..

Most traders do not expect fabulous riches, they just target steady,regular cash rewards, to spend on the extras in life, the annual vacations, lobster meals, growing retirement fund reserves, or just weekend pocket money.

Traders are practical , realistic people.They dont aim for the sky,' like fabulous riches gain by holding great stocks for very long time'.

In fact, many could be retirees, just want to have a good experience in the markets.

They know that this chiche is dangerous thinking, that can cause people to lose wealth more than gain .

When stuck with a wrong entry, one can hope that it will be all right, if one is patient n keep holding.

It depends, it is also valid option to lose that 5-10% when make a mistake n switch to the nxt winning trade. Based on the concept to keep losers small n let the winners run big.

At this stage of the stock markets worldwide, one can see that the bulls are very tired n the next stage could be some unexpected black swan event that trigger the big downturn, that many had been expecting for some time.

So, to trade in today's market n not keep expecting those fabulous riches may be more prudent for most people.

This may not be applicable for the already reasonably rich , who have different goals, n think they can take the hit n wait it out, in the worst case scenario.

So, let's embrace diversity of thinking n practice in the stock market, as in life, for a more balance view of things.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-19 10:26 | Report Abuse

bursatrader2018's description of traders is realistic (I can fit in nicely to his description of a share trader) unlike Philip's descriptions of traders which were aimed at hitting "below the belt."

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > 2019-09-19 13:05 | Report Abuse

Risktransformer you seem to think I have something against you. I don't. But hiring below the belt or not, I have been trading for a long time as well before I switched to a far more efficient and safe method of buying wonderful companies and paying the premium. But one thing I have always asked traders is to show the depth and volume of their trades, but sadly everytime I asked to see their portfolio history, almost all of them start spouting trade secrets and being defensive about their real returns on trading plans. Very few were willing to show their portfolio, and if those who did has only been trading for 5 years or less. Long term wise, great wealth has always come from following the great stock.

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > 2019-09-19 13:15 | Report Abuse

Sslee u might want to Google who the co-founder of gamuda and ijm was. Then you might realize where the money trail started from.

>>>>>>>>

Sslee Hahahaha,
3iii may I ask is Mr. Koon fabulously rich by not holding great stocks for very long period of time?
Are you fabulously rich by holding great stocks for very long time?
18/09/2019 8:26 PM

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-19 13:23 | Report Abuse

@Philip, FYI, I am both a long term investor as well as a trader.... depending on which market I am in. For example, I have been holding HSBC Holdings PLC for 20 years (I also hold several pieces of land for 30 years). But I find holding stocks in bursa Malaysia long term seems to be a losing proposal. And about showing their portfolio.... not everybody is comfortable about boasting their past losses or successes. Please respect their individuality.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-09-19 13:27 | Report Abuse

>>>>>>>>

Sslee Hahahaha,
3iii may I ask is Mr. Koon fabulously rich by not holding great stocks for very long period of time?
Are you fabulously rich by holding great stocks for very long time?
18/09/2019 8:26 PM

>>>>


SSLee

You must know your investing objective.

Please ask Mr. Koon yourself, what is his investing objective?

From my observations, he made a lot of money in the early years in this forum and lost them all and more, needing him to sell some of his fixed assets (lands). In my book, he is a speculator.

It is not wrong to be a speculator. They do get speculator returns. In an aggregate, most speculators lose money in the stock market. Why? In the short run, the short term stock market trading is a negative sum again. Thus, the often quoted 80 to 90% of those in the market lost their money. (I believe this figure to be true. My brokers of many years attested to this.)

Posted by 3iii > 2019-09-19 13:40 | Report Abuse

>>>

Posted by Sslee > Sep 17, 2019 1:47 PM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha,
Stockraider, very happy collected 11 cents dividend and 70 cents trading profit. Can go ahmoing with deMusangking in genting.

>>>



Their investing objectives. :-) :-)

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > 2019-09-19 13:59 | Report Abuse

No one is here to learn about boasting, as luck may play a big issue. The purpose of looking at the portfolio history is to understand the reasoning behind each trade or investment and to see what happened after the stock was sold just as much as what happened when the stock was held. I think those who promote thinking without showing a proof of performance as boasting instead. Those I don't respect.

Like this post I have no interest in and I consider boasting.

"HSBC Holdings PLC for 20 years (I also hold several pieces of land for 30 years." Simply because there is nothing to learn from this statement, but much can be learned about why you bought the stock, was it a confident purchase ( +50% of you're net worth in one purchase), what other stocks did you buy along the way, or did you buy it and top up along the way and not sell a single share. Things like that interest me far more than just a simple shareholding analysis ( which is useless in learning anything).

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-19 14:14 | Report Abuse

@Philip, my statement (about holding HSBC & pieces of land) was not meant for your learning (any way, u don't seem to be a willing learner because u consider yourself to know better than others). My statement was just to dispel your many false assumptions/stereotype about traders. From your recent postings which mentioned traders & their "hocus pocus" methods, it was clearly shown that u have this stereotype misconceptions about traders/trading. Please stop replying my post & I will stop replying your comments too. I really do not wish to go into further arguments with u. Thank you for all your good intentions.

Posted by Sslee > 2019-09-19 14:22 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha
3iii please no hitting below the belt. Ahmoing and wet wet is the favorite of deMusangking. I borrow the phrase just to tease stockraider.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-09-19 15:17 | Report Abuse

>>>

Posted by Sslee > Sep 17, 2019 1:47 PM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha,
Stockraider, very happy collected 11 cents dividend and 70 cents trading profit. Can go ahmoing with deMusangking in genting.

>>>


>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Sep 19, 2019 2:22 PM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha
3iii please no hitting below the belt. Ahmoing and wet wet is the favorite of deMusangking. I borrow the phrase just to tease stockraider.

>>>>



I advise they should aim higher. :-)

Posted by pputeh > 2019-09-19 16:52 | Report Abuse

I have held Aeon Credit since 2013 bought @ 3.85, Inari since 2014 @ rm1 & Penta from 2016 @ rm1.65. They have all returned healthy profits. My only regret is not buying into Public Bank. I bought Affin and had to dispose it off at a loss and it was a short term play. Personally I feel holding on to stocks for long term pays in the end. I am now invested into P.Chem and will bid my time and wait. Just my 2 cents worth

Posted by Becky123 > 2019-09-20 00:48 | Report Abuse

https://cen.acs.org/business/economy/Petrochemical-prices-spike-Saudi-bombings/97/i37

The bombings of Saudi Aramco’s oil-refining complexes in Khurais and Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia, on Sunday, Sept. 15, caused a spike in prices for oil and some petrochemicals due to concerns about a tightening global supply.

Posted by Becky123 > 2019-09-20 00:49 | Report Abuse

https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/petrochemicals/19092019/petrochemical-feedstock-supply-under-attack/amp/

A rise in oil prices in turn raises the competitiveness and margins of US petrochemical producers which mainly use NGLs ethane, along with propane and butane.

As oil prices rise, this drives petrochemical and polymers prices higher. US petrochemical margins, largely based on abundant local ethane from shale gas, would widen.

On 16 September, US commodity chemical stock prices surged, with notable gains in LyondellBasell (+4.0%), Westlake Chemical (+5.0%) and Methanex (+8.9%). Dow was up 1.6%.

Posted by Becky123 > 2019-09-20 00:51 | Report Abuse

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/1978522-asia-petchem-prices-strengthen-on-saudi-feedstock-curbs?backToResults=true

Asian petrochemical prices have risen across the board on the prospect of supply disruptions following attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities.

Feedstock supplies at state-owned Sabic and other Saudi petrochemical companies have been cut by 15-50pc after the attacks on the Abqaiq plant, the world's largest crude oil processing facility, and the Khurais oil field infrastructure. It is still unclear for how long, and by how much, production will be disrupted.

The following companies have announced feedstock supply cuts:

Sabic: 49pc
Sadara: 16pc
Tasnee: 41pc
Advanced Petrochemical: 40pc
Yansab: 30pc
Saudi Kayan: 50pc
The oil facilities that were struck in the 14 September attacks mainly produce export supplies of Arab Light and Arab Extra Light crude, forcing state-owned Saudi Aramco to shut in 5.7mn b/d of crude output. The attacks also halted production of an estimated 2bn ft³/d (21bn m³/yr) of associated gas, which will cut Saudi supplies of ethane and NGLs by 50pc.

LPG is used at petrochemical units to produce polymers such as polyethylene (PE) and ethylene glycols (MEG). Asian naphtha- and gas-based crackers often favour supplies of Middle East LPG such as propane because they are subject to lower taxes compared to rival US supplies, which have been hit by a 25pc tariffs under the China-US trade war.

But Chinese producer SP Chemical is now preparing to purchase feedstock propane from the US, despite the tariffs, as its term supplies from the Middle East are affected by the attacks. The producer started a new 700,000 t/yr LPG-fed cracker in Taixing in mid-August, and had stabilised production by the end of the month. The cracker is now operating at 80pc.

Direct buyers from Satorp, PetroRabigh and South Korea's S-Oil — which is majority owned by Aramco — have not received any notification of disruptions to their aromatics supplies. The impact on aromatics production appears to minimal so far, but this could change.

Satorp's aromatics capacity includes 140,000 t/yr of benzene and 800,000 t/yr of paraxylene (PX). PetroRabigh has 400,000 t/yr of benzene and 1.3mn t/yr of PX capacity, while S-Oil has total benzene capacity of 600,000 t/yr as well as 1.7mn t/yr of PX.

The new, world-scale aromatics production units in China being brought on line by Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemicals are designed to run Arab Medium crude as baseload supplies, and can also process Arab Heavy. But these units could also be affected by the Saudi supply disruptions, as Aramco rejigs the grades it offers to Asian buyers to manage the impact from the attacks.

Chinese buyers favour styrene monomer (SM) supplies from the Middle East because these do not incur anti-dumping duties (ADD). China has increased its reliance on Middle East SM this year as a result, leaving buyers vulnerable to the fall in the region's SM supplies.

Prices of most aromatics in Asia rose by about $40/t or up to 6pc yesterday, the first trading day after the attacks. Benzene prices for November delivery on a fob South Korea basis settled at $730-740/t yesterday, up from $696-698/t on 13 September. PX prices rose to the highest level for a month, with November cfr China supplies trading as high as $825/t yesterday after being bid at $781/t on 13 September. October-delivery SM was bid at $1,075/t cfr China yesterday, without any counter-offer, compared to $1,030-1,040/t on 12 September, before the Chinese market closed for the mid-autumn festival holidays.

There have been no obvious price increases yet for ethylene and propylene, with market participants still seeking details on the market impact. But ethylene traders have held back offers in anticipation of a sharp jump in prices, which is expected by the end of this week, as they monitor the onset of production cuts and the impact on the downstream PE and MEG sectors.

But prices of PE and fellow derivative polypropylene (PP) in China have already strengthened in response to the supply concerns. Spot prices of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) increased to 7,400-7,800 yuan/t yesterday from Yn7,250-7,500/t on 12 September, while LLDPE futures rise by Yn303/t to Yn7,630/t over the same period. Raffia PP spot prices increased from Yn8,650-8,750/t on 12 September to Yn8,800-8,900/t yesterday, while PP futures gained by nearly Yn300/t to Yn8,310/t.

But MEG futures in China hit a five-month high yesterday, after consumers in northeast Asia said they had received notification from a Saudi supplier that October MEG deliveries will be delayed.

Posted by Becky123 > 2019-09-20 00:53 | Report Abuse

https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/meg-and-polyethylene-spot-prices-jump-after-drone-attacks-on-saudi-oil-facilities/

Spot prices of monoethylene glycol (MEG) and polyethylene (PE) have spiked in Asia, following news of the drone attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia over the weekend. These two commodities are the two main chemical exports of the region.

Posted by RainT > 2019-09-20 14:33 | Report Abuse

@Philip

why u change your name again? to

JASON TOSHI HO

can change meh? why i cannot change one?

Posted by stkstudent > 2019-09-20 15:33 | Report Abuse

Jaya, why your calls all no chun one ??

... U mean bye,bye,bye ?? hahaha

Jaya Buy buy buy
18/09/2019 8:42 AM

Jaya .................
But 8.50 coming brothers & sisters
18/09/2019 8:06 PM

Jaya Last chance
Tomorrow 8.00
17/09/2019 4:32 PM

Posted by Jason Toshi Ho > 2019-09-20 18:56 | Report Abuse

Trying to interview this guy recently, he has a 10 year record of trading that seems to make sense to me. The record is very impressive.

Posted by stkstudent > 2019-09-20 19:05 | Report Abuse

My guess is he is same category player as Paktua73, not the lone ranger player like many here,
Could b wrong, jangan marah ye, ( trust no one at face value in forum, hahaha)

Posted by Jaya > 2019-09-21 10:17 | Report Abuse

stkstudent
Paktua73 is good friend and a sincere person brother

Posted by stkstudent > 2019-09-21 11:22 | Report Abuse

Thks for info, can see tht he is an amiable, confident personality , a big player in this market, who is considerate to Inform others of his presence.
There are lots of other big players, IB funds, etc tht are also active in the same waters, but they operate incognito, for the added advantage, hihihi.

Posted by Jaya > 2019-09-21 12:18 | Report Abuse

stkstudent
I am playing big here,TM and Maybank currently
In TM fighting together with Paktua73
Confident this counter will be back to 8.50 shortly

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-23 11:09 | Report Abuse

Now heading down to RM7.50; not to RM8.50 (not so soon).

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-09-23 11:25 | Report Abuse

It could not even reach the weak resistance of RM7.86; how can it then reach RM8.50? Looks like the technical rebound is over; especially with EPF's continuous heavy selling, the KLCI staying below 1,600 (may keep getting lower) & a likely bad QR coming up soon. Well, of course for some people they will view this as a discount to buy more (not my recommendation... because we don't know how low it could drop). Make own decision, take own risk & reap (huge) profit if u get lucky or lose big if unlucky.

--------------------------------------------------------------
risktransformer: There is a weak resistance at RM7.86 (it may be possible to break above this) and a strong resistance at RM7.98 (price may get stuck around RM8.00, so any further upside may be limited). For trend followers, this spike in price currently look more like a technical rebound rather than a clearly established uptrend (although it is possible for this technical rebound to turn into a real uptrend if the price keeps going up). Entering at current price is at high risk of getting trap should there be a reversal in price movement later (looks likely). Trade at your own risk.
17/09/2019 6:45 PM
-----------------------------------

Posted by stkstudent > 2019-09-23 23:31 | Report Abuse

risktransformer, thks for sharing, all the best n Good Trading/ investing..