Posted by MCA_ > 2019-11-13 14:53 | Report Abuse

Sales drop also some1 must hide? Why cheat like PH?

Posted by Shinnzaii > 2019-11-13 14:53 | Report Abuse

wew...KLCI break 1600points def...olefins & other derivatives weak demand by half and low production and schedule maintenance...how long to take to recover from downturn cycle?

Posted by Shinnzaii > 2019-11-13 14:55 | Report Abuse

balance sheet still healthy no any issue

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-11-13 14:57 | Report Abuse

last time already dropped to below RM 7 as foreign funds have anticipated, chill, dropping won't be so vigorous. those holding now are EPF and ASB.

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2019-11-13 14:59 | Report Abuse

Lol , see who run more faster

Posted by mamatede > 2019-11-13 15:04 | Report Abuse

drop more please. Will keep accumulate

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-11-13 15:05 | Report Abuse

won't drop that much, no worry.. too bad i forgot to activate my IDSS account.

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2019-11-13 15:10 | Report Abuse

Actually international must downgrade this Malaysia country to same level with Bangla.

Posted by Shinnzaii > 2019-11-13 15:14 | Report Abuse

I wont surprise our neighbour Indonesia even do better than our country

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-11-13 15:17 | Report Abuse

if you really look at the country index, actually not much improving in near decades...

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2019-11-13 15:51 | Report Abuse

If use Malaysia all index compare to other country SG , US , CN , TW , HK , KR , JP , VN , TH , EU , Indonesia , India all index , you will know how rubbish malaysia are . International must warning foregein investor do not invest in Malaysia ! !

Posted by RainT > 2019-11-13 16:07 | Report Abuse

now i know why PCHEM drop so much today

Posted by RainT > 2019-11-13 16:07 | Report Abuse

qtr result out at lunch time

Posted by RainT > 2019-11-13 16:08 | Report Abuse

come on come on

fast fast drop

who want sell due to bad qtr

faster do it

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-11-13 16:15 | Report Abuse

chill la, strong support, although the profit slashed by half, still is profitable company

Posted by icecool > 2019-11-13 16:18 | Report Abuse

huhuhu balls also drop

Posted by Titan > 2019-11-13 16:32 | Report Abuse

wah lau.....results really bad leh. 50% reduce in profit. I think i will ciao 1st coz i think it is still at current level because got invisible hand supporting the index so that it will not be so ugly. Tomorrow is different story a'dy. Technical chart also show berish sign.

Posted by Titan > 2019-11-13 16:35 | Report Abuse

also, 1st time pchem recorded such a bad results. NP margin and ROE lowest since its listing.

Posted by kingb > 2019-11-13 16:36 | Report Abuse

Already expected a bad quarter due to maintenance.

Posted by Titan > 2019-11-13 16:44 | Report Abuse

true but market will somehow will show some reaction on this bad news. Not everyone aware of the maintenance nor everyone is aware of the poor result release today. It will be in tomorrow news & i guess there will be some reaction. Of course pchem is good company n wun go bankrupt

Posted by Aristocats > 2019-11-13 16:46 | Report Abuse

OMG,
This renowned beast bleed money.
Better run fast fast.
Don't know will go down to ???
Scary heavy raining hari ini.
Sad.

Posted by firehawk > 2019-11-13 17:04 | Report Abuse

-5.48%

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-11-13 17:10 | Report Abuse

Interesting.

Posted by Junichiro > 2019-11-14 09:36 | Report Abuse

a technical picture update

https://invst.ly/omp77

Posted by menteribesarpasola > 2019-11-14 09:56 | Report Abuse

Choivo Cap visit netx (0020) your friend calvin taneng call you.

Posted by Titan > 2019-11-14 10:17 | Report Abuse

chart showing downtrending sign. Losing momentum. RM 7 is the psychological support price. If break this, then expect to drop further.

Posted by kingb > 2019-11-14 11:29 | Report Abuse

It's all depends on the big kaki.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-11-14 11:29 | Report Abuse

sarawak sifu brings us to Holland

Posted by Titan > 2019-11-14 12:16 | Report Abuse

sarawak sifu? who???

Posted by kingb > 2019-11-14 12:37 | Report Abuse

Big kaki want a boat to Antarctica.

Posted by Outliar > 2019-11-14 12:38 | Report Abuse

@Titan

Mr Phillip :D
Would love his thoughts on this.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-11-14 12:38 | Report Abuse

Ello Phillip.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-11-14 12:50 | Report Abuse

I think his thoughts are quite clear.

The nature of PCHEM is that, like all companies in the natural gas refining industry, its the question is if you're geographically blessed or not.

Natural gas cost to extract, is either insanely expensive, or pretty cheap. You have places like Qatar, where the refinery can make 80% ROE, or typical oil rigs where natural gas is considered waste and burned.

And because of this "Geographically Blessed" factor, supply is always less than demand.

Having said that, there will always be a need for natural gas, and i don't mean in electricity generation (which most people use it for), but for the production of ammonia and thus fertilizer.

Currently, there is no way to produce ammonia other than via natural gas, and the Haber-Bosch process (Which requires Hydrogen, that is obtained via the Methane in Natural Gas). And this has been the case since 1910, and currently, there is no significant breakthrough in finding a replacement process.

Without a cheap and efficient process of creating ammonia ammonia, we would all starve (and we almost did before the Haber-Bosch process was discovered). And Haber-Bosch process is not efficient at all, taking up about 2% of the world energy supply.

PCHEM analysis can be broken down very simply to.

1) Will PCHEM always be geographically blessed, with direct pipelines to Petronas Gas Production? How much gas reserves does Petronas/Malaysia have left?

2) Is there a better and cheaper way of creating ammonia, other than the Haber Bosch Process coming up, that would not require the use of natural gas? This is more minor-ish, as only 10% of Natural gas is used for ammonia production, but i personally think this use of natural gas is far more important.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-11-14 12:52 | Report Abuse

when it is so bloody complicated, it is better to tell yourself "I don't know", rather than assuming you know all

we are dealing with real money here, Mr. Sarawak Sifu

Posted by stockraider > 2019-11-14 12:57 | Report Abuse

Looking at the performance of Titan, u will see this industry are hit by excess capacity and all the big players are big boys loh...!!

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-11-14 12:58 | Report Abuse

Sarawak sifu stocks all go holland

that is why he hiding in Muru Cave now

Posted by stockraider > 2019-11-14 13:02 | Report Abuse

The guy is sabah sifu lah....!!

He is not allow to reside in sarawak bcos of immigration restriction loh....!!

Posted by Icon8888 > Nov 14, 2019 12:58 PM | Report Abuse

Sarawak sifu stocks all go holland

that is why he hiding in Muru Cave now

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-11-14 13:21 | Report Abuse

I noticed Phillip sounds very humble these days.

Posted by enigmatic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ > 2019-11-14 13:50 | Report Abuse

Awaiting Philip's comment on PCHEM now. His analysis is always thorough and interesting.

Posted by Outliar > 2019-11-14 14:22 | Report Abuse

Did he delete his comments? Who is Choivo replying to?

Posted by popo92 > 2019-11-14 16:08 | Report Abuse

I am reading transcript for analyst briefing now

Posted by Philip Greta > 2019-11-14 16:59 | Report Abuse

Funny, such short term thinkers. Has IPIC started operations yet?

For those who are not traders and short term investors, let me clarify what I look at in the earnings report: look to
A11. Significant and subsequent events. We are still waiting on completion of PIC with no news on any delay, cancellation or problems. So my original reasoning in purchasing PIC is still interact, thus: discount day.

Look to B1.

The Group recorded lower plant utilisation at 81% from 100% in the preceding quarter, mainly due to statutory turnaround and higher level of maintenance activities undertaken in the current quarter. Sales volume was lower in line with lower production.
Overall average product prices were slightly higher despite lower crude oil price.
Revenue decreased by RM668 million or 15% at RM3.7 billion largely due to lower sales volume.
EBITDA was lower by RM606 million or 40% at RM915 million mainly due to lower revenue and higher
maintenance costs during turnaround period. Profit after tax decreased by RM554 million or 50% at RM558 million.

If you look carefully, due to the fire at IPIC there was a slew of maintenance and turnaround activities that quarter to make sure that mistakes do not reoccur. It was better to do something to reduce profit and increase safety and long term performance. Obviously with lowered production of 19% we also end up with lower revenue (down 15%) and lower earnings.

BUT IS IT A LONG TERM EVENT OR A SHORT TERM ACTIVITY? You may ask yourself if they do maintenance turnaround every quarter and see if sales figures will recover or not.

For the answer to that, look to

COMMENTARY ON PROSPECTS
The results of the Group’s operations are expected to be primarily influenced by global economic conditions,
foreign exchange rate movements, utilisation rate of our production facilities and petrochemical products prices
which have a high correlation to crude oil price, particularly for the Olefins and Derivatives segment.

The utilisation of our production facilities is dependent on plant maintenance activities and sufficient availability
of feedstock as well as utilities supply. The Group will continue with its operational excellence programme and
supplier relationship management to sustain plant utilisation level at above industry benchmark.
Olefins and Derivatives
The Group anticipates product prices for Olefins and Derivatives segment to stabilise in the coming quarter. This
is in view of supply limitation following planned regional turnarounds.
Fertilisers and Methanol
The Group expects that Fertiliser and Methanol product prices to also stabilise due to limited supply amidst soft
demand from the end products.

Simplified, buying PCHEM for the LONG TERM relies on understanding these factors:

Will
1. Malaysia ringgit drop versus USD ( sad to say, a surety)
2. Pchem complete IPIC ( let's say chances are much higher than jaks completion of power plant)
3. Will production and turnaround activities end and lead to higher profits? ( If you believe this quarter is temporary, then you can rely on the last 10 years earnings for pchem to give you forward)

Now, who is willing to bet with me that next quarter results will be at least a billion in earnings and a big far 15 cents of dividends?

Posted by Philip Greta > 2019-11-14 17:19 | Report Abuse

Is it above market benchmark? You can compare lctitan results and performance with PCHEM to know who will be around 10 years from now and which is undervalued at these p prices.

Posted by monetary > 2019-11-14 17:23 | Report Abuse

I like to ask a foolish question. Can u trade olefin? If u trade the commodity u don't have to worry about plant shutdown, forex loss, accident like fire and all sorts of managerial problems. Less variables in the equation.

Posted by Jing Yong Lim > 2019-11-14 18:07 | Report Abuse

PCHEM稳稳啦！PETRONAS旗下子公司的管理层都是马来社会的精英派领导的。。。不怕！

而且国家基金撑着，怕什么？跌破七块钱敢敢买...慢慢收，不能一次过all in。坦白说上个季度排队还差1SEN就matched到了。。。。这一次烂业绩是给我们机会买入持有。。。。这家公司的现金流现金粗到没朋友了

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-11-14 18:10 | Report Abuse

Sabah sifu becomes Holland sifu

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-11-14 18:10 | Report Abuse

Everyday talk buffett

But invest like buffalo

Posted by monetary > 2019-11-14 18:20 | Report Abuse

QoQ bottomline dipped by 58%, mainly due to: (1) product price rout for olefins and methanol led to margin compression, and (2) plunge in sales volumes due to statutory plant turnaround (TA) activities.

JY Lim. 第二点可解决。第一点你有何高见？

Posted by Outliar > 2019-11-14 18:25 | Report Abuse

Lol Icon really giving it to Phillip here, lost alot of money?

Posted by monetary > 2019-11-14 18:29 | Report Abuse

I think all petrochemical plants around the world not doing well.