Posted by Lukey_Greek > 2020-01-29 09:30 | Report Abuse

The outlook is bad for mid term (2-3 years). Petrochemical price keep dropping due to excess supply & drop in raw material price.

Posted by popo92 > 2020-01-29 10:39 | Report Abuse

my biggest concern is also the diminish of moat, supply seems coming from many places globally. Many is aiming southeast asia market too. my insight on this is fairly incompetence although i am still holding big on pchem.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-01-29 10:46 | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Petrochemical is like oleo-chemical you need the economy of scale, the latest most efficient process technology, upstream for security of feedstock, big cluster/complex to save on internal transport cost and big storage and logistic to lower your logistics cost. A single stand alone petrochemical company without above support will be killed by this fully integrated petrochemical company.

Thank you

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-01-29 11:32 | Report Abuse

Joon,

I'd listen to phillip when it comes to short term trading.


Icon8888,

For other petrochem co's yes. However, those with natural gas as a primary feed stock is a little different. There is a "geographically blessed" component.

IE you need to be in the right place, to do it at the right price/cost. If you're not in the right place, you won't make a profit, as your cost will just be too high.

PCHEM is good, not so much because management is competent etc, but because its a good business due to them being geographically blessed, and their management is not retarded (not smart, but at least not retarded).

I would only worry if they start thinking about going into palm oil, refinery fabrication something stupid like that, which is completely not in their circle of competence.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-01-29 12:28 | Report Abuse

maybe need some patience

things are messy now

Posted by Lukey_Greek > 2020-01-29 12:32 | Report Abuse

The feedstock of the new plant is oil compared with their existing plant which use gas. Margin is much thinner. Hence, the profit will be volatile depend highly on oil price movement.

Posted by Lukey_Greek > 2020-01-29 12:36 | Report Abuse

Another reason of the cheap petrochemical price is due to raw material using by products of shale gas. Plant using oil is hard to compete.

Posted by KooSan > 2020-01-29 12:57 | Report Abuse

Hello....the dividend is even better than your FD rate. Otherwise put your money under your bed.
So please la stop giving cock stories and try to be expert and advise people

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-01-29 13:00 | Report Abuse

the problem with this stock is that nobody (in this forum) does a detailed analysis

a lot of broad concepts by sslee, Philips etc

but many things said later turned out to be only partially true or need to be qualified

as good as no analysis



Lukey_Greek The feedstock of the new plant is oil compared with their existing plant which use gas. Margin is much thinner. Hence, the profit will be volatile depend highly on oil price movement.
29/01/2020 12:32 PM

Lukey_Greek Another reason of the cheap petrochemical price is due to raw material using by products of shale gas. Plant using oil is hard to compete.
29/01/2020 12:36 PM

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-01-29 13:01 | Report Abuse

I don't own this stock so I have no incentive to investigate in depth

Posted by chl1989 > 2020-01-29 13:24 | Report Abuse

waiting at rm6

Posted by Joon Chan > 2020-01-29 14:57 | Report Abuse

Philip, choivo, i do appreciate the advice.

Guys, i'm sorry. But i don't see the logic in not selling early in a clear knee jerk reaction. Only to pick up the shares at the end of the day, or next day. Given the kind of reaction, the stock is not instantly going to do a 360 degree turn and meteor up to where it used to be (contextual situation applies)

Maybe if your position is very big, then it's not feasible. But for most retailers, with 1m or less, you are in and out.

But otherwise, if you already have a position in the stock, and you believe it's long term prospects. This means no matter what you'll ride the knee jerk right?

Like today, there is a rout on Topglove, as expected since the virus looks to be slowing down. Why would you not want to cash out at 6, and buy TopGlove again at whatever, 5%, 4% lower. You can set the limit buy, and you get your price.

Price follows the path of least resistance, its not difficult to spot a panic selldown, or a mania uptrend.

Volatility is the friend. If one loads up on these discount events. Taking outside money to buy more, vs selling current position to buy more, what's the difference? Isn't it also timing? Isn't it a bit riskier as you've added capital?

A few chances like this, could make a 2-3 bagger, into 5 bagger, over the cycle Same risk,same stock,same prospects. Just a few days of going short over 600 days.

I'm not trying to be argumentative, but i just cant grasp sitting by and letting the stock take a temporary hit.

"Trying to time the market will always be an exercise in futility. When I was young in the 80s I tried to time the market, it didn't work. I then tried to time the market in the 90s, it also ask didn't work. You may be too young to remember renong, aokam and alta vista, but my prognosis is always hindsight is perfect. But in reality, if you have been losing big money in a stock, it becomes harder to buy back when you sell it, or even to just buy more as it goes down."

I'm curious as to how you've tried to do it in the past, and came to decide it was futile? ^^ I wasn't old enough for renong, but my late father did condemn it very often. Altavista? The search engine?

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-01-29 14:59 | Report Abuse

you can be saved by buying Insas.

Posted by Sslee > Jan 29, 2020 10:46 AM | Report Abuse
Dear all,
Petrochemical is like oleo-chemical you need the economy of scale, the latest most efficient process technology, upstream for security of feedstock, big cluster/complex to save on internal transport cost and big storage and logistic to lower your logistics cost. A single stand alone petrochemical company without above support will be killed by this fully integrated petrochemical company.

Thank you

Posted by Sslee > 2020-01-30 09:21 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha,
i3lurker, I am save in Insas. Now buying Pchem during discount day sales. My next batch will be below 650.
Thank you

Posted by Junichiro > 2020-01-30 09:54 | Report Abuse

2 lines of support of Pchem.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/LLHdOLNM

Posted by risktransformer > 2020-01-30 10:34 | Report Abuse

Very good time to start buying PCHEM now (for many very obvious reasons)!!

Posted by RainT > 2020-01-30 12:56 | Report Abuse

Another 1 year low price

Posted by RainT > 2020-01-30 12:57 | Report Abuse

already average down until bullet also dried up

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-01-30 15:04 | Report Abuse

https://medium.com/proof-of-value/plastic-prices-have-crashed-how-could-investors-cash-in-9e176527617b

This was pretty good

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-01-30 15:45 | Report Abuse

Why like this stock so much ? No moat

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-01-30 15:47 | Report Abuse

Got.

Having said that, I would be the first to admit they are probably better deals out there even in the bursa.

===
Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 30, 2020 3:45 PM | Report Abuse

Why like this stock so much ? No moat

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-01-30 16:41 | Report Abuse

What is better ?

Pray tell

Posted by PaulNewman > 2020-01-30 20:27 | Report Abuse

Hi Choivo, that was a very good article on chemical business.

Thanks for sharing with us.

Looks like the rally in plastic related companies have legs

Posted by Joon Chan > 2020-01-30 23:13 | Report Abuse

dunoo what you all keep saying dont do, i've maintained my position and netted 40k plus today in contra gain.

Posted by risktransformer > 2020-01-31 09:00 | Report Abuse

Contra is the right thing to do when the market keeps going down.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-01-31 09:52 | Report Abuse

Meltdown continues

I hope you learn something today

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-01-31 10:28 | Report Abuse

Turkey before thanksgiving.


===
Joon Chan dunoo what you all keep saying dont do, i've maintained my position and netted 40k plus today in contra gain.
30/01/2020 11:13 PM

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-01-31 10:30 | Report Abuse

For bursa right now, i quite like PETRONM as you already know.

Currently studying muhibbah.

===
Icon8888 What is better ?

Pray tell
30/01/2020 4:41 PM

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-01-31 11:27 | Report Abuse

SSLEE

SHOULD NOT HAVE FOLLOWED PHILIP BUY PETCHEM

BETTER DON'T BUY ANYTHING FOR NOW AS CORONAVIRUS WILL LAST TILL JULY LIKE SARS

SO KEEP SAFE

ONLY STOCKS TO HIDE IN SAFETY IS TSUNAMI SHELTERED STOCKS LIKE NFCP FIBER THRUST AS IT IS MALAYSIA INTERNAL STIMULATION

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-01-31 11:29 | Report Abuse

Petronm another stock lack of info

Just like pchem, it is one big black box

Nobody knows exactly what is going on with the refinery industry

Posted by pakabu > 2020-01-31 12:15 | Report Abuse

Petronas Chemicals has a more DIVERSIFIED revenue stream.

- Fertilisers and Methanol(F&M) business.
- Olefins and Derivatives(O&D).

Posted by t_nike2002 > 2020-01-31 13:50 | Report Abuse

Opportunity to collect !!
Reasonable dividend yield

Posted by feiloh > 2020-01-31 13:51 | Report Abuse

Wait for 4......big guy....

Posted by enigmatic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ > 2020-01-31 17:25 | Report Abuse

2249900 sold at RM6.19.

Who dafuq has so much to throw? Margin call?

Posted by Zuliana > 2020-01-31 17:59 | Report Abuse

@#£%&@ why last minit buang turun stok ini? Buat saya rugi saja. Nama Petronas, tapi harga Turun gg atau gila gila. I think INI rock solid punya harga. Tapi harga madam company penny stock. OMG.

Posted by enigmatic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ > 2020-01-31 18:23 | Report Abuse

Next support is at RM6.05, followed by RM5.95, then RM5.81.
If the above prices are breached, operators are pummeling the price down.

"The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient."

Posted by pang72 > 2020-01-31 18:30 | Report Abuse

What is this??

Posted by stockraider > 2020-01-31 22:54 | Report Abuse

Philip should be solli...sending u all to holand....if philip had pick insas the situation is better & positive loh...!!

Even Netx is a better pick than petchem mah....!!


Posted by calvintaneng > Jan 31, 2020 11:27 AM | Report Abuse

SSLEE

SHOULD NOT HAVE FOLLOWED PHILIP BUY PETCHEM

BETTER DON'T BUY ANYTHING FOR NOW AS CORONAVIRUS WILL LAST TILL JULY LIKE SARS

SO KEEP SAFE

ONLY STOCKS TO HIDE IN SAFETY IS TSUNAMI SHELTERED STOCKS LIKE NFCP FIBER THRUST AS IT IS MALAYSIA INTERNAL STIMULATION

Posted by enigmatic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ > 2020-02-01 00:27 | Report Abuse

Brace yourselves, more avalanche coming on Monday

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-02-01 08:54 | Report Abuse

I sangka banyak orang tak percaya...

Next 24 months will test low between RM 3.00 ~ RM 3.50...

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-02-01 08:55 | Report Abuse

Aku sendiri pun tak percaya...

Tapi...aku pun nak tengok mujuk tak....

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-01 09:54 | Report Abuse

raider spot on

Nobody should thjnk that he has monopoly of wisdom open mouth close mouth "i hope you learn somethjbg today"

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-01 09:54 | Report Abuse

From pchem to gkent, i dont see what i can learn

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-01 09:56 | Report Abuse

the only thing i learn is that the world is big and nobody is the snartest

Be humble when you are doing well

Head dont grow big

Dont get carried away

Posted by monetary > 2020-02-01 11:49 | Report Abuse

this business is 1 of those tat the last man standing win. b4 a winner stood up many has to wind up.

Posted by pang72 > 2020-02-01 11:56 | Report Abuse

It is very good advise.
Be Hamble!
I would like to learn more and correct my mistake!

Posted by coolio > 2020-02-01 12:18 | Report Abuse

good one everyone..let the reality do the talking

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-01 14:00 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, stockraider, I will say this one last time because it is getting irritating and stupid.

If you want to follow my analysis, follow it all the way. Not halfway and then complain like a little girl.

I bought GKENT for lrt3 and mrt2 earnings. So if you want to complain at least look to 2022 for mrt2 and 2024 for lrt3 because that is the timeline of investment. Not warrants and gambling that you are so fond of.

I bought PCHEM for IPIC earnings, which will start up this year, and only full run production in beginning of 2021.

I don't buy something to get earnings this year short term. But I buy it with multi year expectations. If you want to discuss my returns for 2019-2020, why not discuss my returns for ql? Pe50 but 20% increase, yinson, 50%, topglove 30%, stoneco,100+%, pphb, 100%.

I know you are very stressed out by the volatility of your stock process and the market in the short term.

But this is getting irritating. If you cannot relax and wait for earnings to justify your investments and look only at stock prices to justify your results, then you should not be putting money into the stock market in the first place.

So shut up, sit down and have a drink of coffee and shut the fuck up.

And stop buying stocks with one hand on the driving wheel or gambling with warrants that put a time value on your stock investment.

Posted by Joon Chan > 2020-02-01 14:41 | Report Abuse

Icon8888

Must be tough when the capital amount is small, to wait for a meaningful return. And also tough, with a salaried job, to make meaningful money.

Then you take more risk to go chase that quick gain. Which is fine, if you're an active daily trader, with very clear emotions and position sizing.

Instead I suggest you'll be better off if you.

1. Use your employment and current capital to get a share margin line. 100,000 in pledged as collateral in fixed deposit, gives you a line one 250,000.

2. Apply for credit cards, and take out 72 months cash-loan on it.

3. Then go buy shares like the ones Philip suggests, up to 70% of your line first. When you see gains, or the market recovering you can add more.

4. Your positions are very small, you can afford to wait till it starts trending up or picking up to enter

5. If you have real estate, consider overdrafting it, or sell it and rent it from the same buyer.

6. Convince your friends,family, etc. To provide you collateral for a more financing.

Limit your portfolio to 3-4 shares. Go long, go short, You're agile and nimble.

You're okay if you don't stray and take capital losses. Or use too much of your line and risk margin calls.

Okay now maybe its possible to be patient?

Posted by enigmatic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ > 2020-02-01 14:52 | Report Abuse

One man's meat is another man's poison.

To each, his own.

Different investors have different investing time frames, monetary limits and risk appetite. Thus, negative returns today may transform to positive returns in future, depending on one's selling price.