Steven. Thanks for your good comment. What happened if what u said is true ? 1) will declare impairment? 2) after WTE start COD, every quarter will declare loss from WTE operations for the whole 21 years ?
company is adopting incorrect business model, for most if not all power plant/solar based projects, financing can only be raised via long term bond/sukuk arrangements, whereby the returns will be almost flat but guaranteed for long term say 25-30 years, these type of investments are not for retail investors, as there will be close to zero dividend.... therefore in my opinion, either tenaga or khazanah shd acquire this company for long term national building and RE target achievements.... while retail investor shd just stay away, either way main shareholders are seen diluting their interest, and wonder who the private placements were made to?
yes correct that once the WTE COD the interest cost will be charged out to PL whenver incurred. and i dont think that the WTE will run at loss even with the amortisation of 43m + interest expense of 22m, for sure it still be profitable bear in mind that it will collect tippping fee for the rubbish collected too.. what will happen is the margin will be eroded due to the high fuel cost, high IA amortisation. a lot of fund hold cypark shares they are more worried than us if the WTE will be run at loss, also this is our country 1st WTE maiden project, will malaysia let it run at loss and end up shut down?
@klse2022 If my estimate is correct, WTE will report accounting loss. Cash flow will still be positive if add back amortisation, so maybe no need asset impairment. Interest technically will come down as debts being repaid. So maybe not whole concession period will lose money.
@yong1985cm: Tipping fee already in RM80m revenue guidance (management used to guide RM70m; you can google past press coverage and AR). No idea why some FMs bullish or if there will be another ala serba/sapura bail out in horizon if project fails. Thats speculative and not fundamental.
Biggest redflag is the super inflated asset cost. Not only WTE, solar also. Can refer 2021 AR. If you add FA (include LSS3 in WIP) and Contract Asset (mainly LSS2), total is roughly RM1.4 bn (already near RM4.7m/MWp), and still growing until completion maybe in 2022.
cannot compare with serba/sapura, 1 in oil and gas industry which is super volatile and solely depend on the crude oil price, and it is not environmental. the other is solar/WTE which is the direction that where ppl want to be headed toward. Industry itself already is big different. not to mention the rest of the different.
I agree RE theme is hot.....and because its hot, IRR is getting lower and lower due to competitive bidding. Everyone focus too much on portfolio size in terms of MW capacity and not on commercial returns. Cypark will probably make some money from LSS2 cos tariff is still about 38 sen. But hard to make money for LSS3 when tariff drop to about 23 sen and worse for LSS4 about 18-19 sen (likely deferred due to high panel and construction cost). I dont think historical profitiability can sustain.
Fair article from theedge.. project delays during pkp, require them to adjust the sukuk schedule, market spooked, short sellers took advantage, directors got margin called.. just unfortunate..
There is nothing to worry at all about the current state of Cypark but a rare and an excellent opportunity for those who are both familiar and understand the biz of Cypark and its financing models.
This is certainly not an advise to buy or sell but just my personal understanding and opinion.
@CharlieM, is the article mentioned about the Directors getting margin call? no right.. it only said share price drop due to margin call, but it dint said the margin call is came from Directors. that the doubt still remain unknown.
@steven832, agreed that the solar project margin getting thiner and thiner due to the lower selling price to TNB via PPA, and increase in solar panel cost. that the reason that cypark lost the bidding for LSS4, bcz they bid at higher than average price and do not mind to lose the bidding and let other industry players to win the LSS4 projects. Cypark alwz do those project that give them high margin, if u look at the historical PnL, their margin is considered high compare to other (hard to compare oso bcz solarvest, samaiden, pekat is EPCC contractor).
cypark only act as EPCC for its 3 LSS2 projects so there is no more income will be coming other than maintenance once its COD. for LSS3 once its COD, cypark as the asset owner will only able to generate considerate margin and will not be high.
@yong1985cm, you are right the article didn’t mentioned the margin calls came from directors. I assumed since the ceo and chairman were selling pledged shares. Assumption is speculation so i shouldn’t said that.
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star168
460 posts
Posted by star168 > 2022-06-04 12:21 | Report Abuse
buy more lose more.