Posted by yuanlong57 > 2017-06-11 12:30 | Report Abuse

Would you in any way has been professionally trained in business, economics and finance?

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-11 12:43 | Report Abuse

Trained auditor. In fact in my younger days I have audited Affin and numerous other banks. That time Affin was a real mess. Today Affin is run by people with integrity.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-11 12:48 | Report Abuse

Affin is presently too small compare to the other banks and the government will force one of the big banks to swallow it and the major shareholders like LTAT, Bank of East Asia and Boustead will cash out as it will be done on cash basis. There's no way these major shareholders will sell for less than 1 time book value.

Posted by yuanlong57 > 2017-06-11 14:42 | Report Abuse

No wonder the ease with which you have a firm grasp of the vital financial ratios of a company, the crisp clear cut dissection of a company's financial statement and the data forensics to make assertive assessments and evaluations. My early presumption is finally vindicated.

Posted by yuanlong57 > 2017-06-11 14:49 | Report Abuse

I suppose it is viable to take some positions in Affin at this point of time to leverage on a merger possibility, isn't it?

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-11 15:56 | Report Abuse

I like Affin mainly from a valuation prospective. It's the most undervalued compared to other listed banks. There's potential for a huge upside in price gain. As a contrarian I don't chase prices, my style is always to buy during price corrections because if you buy something close to its immediate low you have little to worry.

Posted by yuanlong57 > 2017-06-11 18:19 | Report Abuse

My humble beginning in Bursa was way back in 2013. My objectives are to prepare myself for my retirement. I want to grow my accumulated assets to sustain a decent retired life but with reasonably good financial freedom. My first bonanza was successfully acquiring 20,000 units of 7-Eleven IPO. Earned comfortable profit from 7-Eleven.
Comparative to your extensive experience, my trading efforts are but baby steps only. Still on a learning curve about the intricacies of investing. Mainly investing in stocks but not warrants, futures, etc. Apart from stocks, I dabbled in unit trust investments, gold & silver, money market.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-11 20:29 | Report Abuse

yuanlong, I am a small fish compared to you. IPO I only apply for 1,000 shares. I am also building up my retirement fund to supplement my small EPF, Life Insurance and PRS(a type of unit trust). I used to hold huge sums of listed corporate bonds (in order to diversify from shares) for which i would buy at deep discount of 25-40% but all have since matured. When the bonds matured I moved the proceeds into listed SPACs which were trading at discount of 25-30%. I normally don't invest in warrants. Affin and Insas warrants are my only exceptions presently. The reason is the underlying shares of both Affin and Insas are way undervalued.

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-06-11 21:46 | Report Abuse

@TheContrarian, how is it the most undervalued? Do you even compare the banks' long-form ROE, and look at it together with the P/BV multiples? Affin seems very fairly valued for now, maybe even a tad overvalued.

You can't just be contrarian for the sake of being different...your claims of the stock being undervalued has to be backed by some financial metric. When I look at ROE and P/BV, I don't sense the stock being particularly undervalued.

Posted by titus > 2017-06-11 22:07 | Report Abuse

Hi TheContrarian, all affin warrant hv less than 2 months. Respect to you able to add position on the warrant but i decided to look at the affin instead. Don't hv get knowledge on call warrant and hence i find it risky due to short maturity.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-11 22:32 | Report Abuse

nikicheong, P/BV of 0.6 not undervalued? Nevermind, you stick to your loss making Parkson.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-11 22:37 | Report Abuse

titus, it depends on whether the warrants are trading at a premium or discount. Stay away from Affin-CW which is trading at a big premium.

Posted by Koh Wee Kiat > 2017-06-12 07:58 | Report Abuse

My humble view for affin .. I don think affin undervalue..this quarter 6sen earning *4 quarter =24 sen ... Please look back 2011 result a quarter can be 9sen and nta even higher...nta doesnt means anything it can be from your fixed asset revaluation and etc...

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-12 08:59 | Report Abuse

Affin is a bank not a property investment company. There's no fixed asset revaluation to boost NTA.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-12 09:03 | Report Abuse

Year 2011 was before rights issue. After rights issue, share capital enlarged, obviously EPS and NTA per share is lower because the denominator is larger i.e. more number of shares today than in year 2011.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-12 09:11 | Report Abuse

One for three rights issue price in 2014 was RM2.76.

Posted by yuanlong57 > 2017-06-12 09:11 | Report Abuse

Ha, ha. Really know Affin inside out, from within and from without.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-12 10:38 | Report Abuse

Usually I would research a counter before I buy.

Posted by yuanlong57 > 2017-06-12 12:44 | Report Abuse

I guess your auditing experiences must have greatly facilitated your understanding of a company's valuation and how to optimize it from an investing perspective.

More amazing is the wealth of cross-disciplinary network information you are able to draw from to complement an investing decision.

During our forum days in MAA, I discovered how formidable you are in corporate rules and regulations and statutory procedures.

I must admit I'm no match for you in these aspects. I learn a lot from the views and comments in forum discussions.

Posted by kyaputencom > 2017-06-12 12:53 | Report Abuse

i will wait at rm2.50 level to consider later

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-06-12 12:54 | Report Abuse

The contrarian what is your target upside by end of this year

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-12 12:58 | Report Abuse

yuanlong, when I was in MAA forum I was merely trying to disseminate accurate and truthful information, correcting other people's misinformation whether they did so deliberately or by ignorance.

Posted by aklobi > 2017-06-12 13:36 | Report Abuse

The Contrarian, and others.. i've been away.. any short-midterm forecast? I'm looking for a price dip so i can buy the rest of the shares i want

Posted by yuanlong57 > 2017-06-12 13:40 | Report Abuse

TheContrarian, above everything else, I think we share a common ground of preparing the financial foundation for our retirement, peers in tapping the wealth of the country through Bursa Malaysia, sharing views in KLSE.i3investor.com except that you're in the private sector whilst I'm in the civil service.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-12 13:57 | Report Abuse

akolobi, don't put all your eggs into one basket. Diversify, diversify!

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-12 15:38 | Report Abuse

A CRITICAL LOOK AT NTA (NET TANGIBLE ASSETS)
=======================================
NTAs given to any listed company is an indication only. Not fixed.
They can be grossly undervalued (understated) or grossly overvalued (inflated) although NOT intentionally)

Different financial implications for NTAs of different business sectors.

NTAs for Property Devt companies can be undervalued when their landbanks bought decades ago had not been revalued.
But NTAs for Banks have an inherent danger of being overvalued/inflated.
Banks’ NTAs comprised their loans assets whose values can only be equal to their NTAs (assuming 100% good quality loans portfolios/no NPLs (which is impossible ). Banks with poorer quality loan assets will find their NTAs being heavily DISCOUNTED by Investment Analysts. In the case of Affin, UOBKAYHIN applied a Price to Book of 0.55x to its NTA to arrive at its Fair Value Price Target on 2.55.

Hence I would agree with the comments by Nikiecheong and Kok Wee Kiat above as well as UOBKAYHIAN’a Report (reproduced here) WHO ALL OPINIONED THAT BASED ON P/B at 0.55x Affin’s Fair Value should be only 2.55 and therefore overvalued at its current price.
Affin Holdings: 1Q17: Sharp Spike In Operating Cost And Gross Impaired Loans
Author: UOBKayHian | Publish date: Mon, 29 May 2017, 10:09 AM
________________________________________
(AHB MK/SELL/RM2.86/Target: RM2.55)
Advertisement: Replay Ad

Affin’s 1Q17 results came in 8.4% below our estimates with operating cost pressure being the key drag. More importantly, asset quality deteriorated significantly while LLC fell sharply to 38%, by far the lowest in the industry. Following our earnings revision, we lower our TP to RM2.55 (0.55X 2017F P/B, 5.7% ROE) and downgrade the stock to a SELL. We are projecting a 10% yoy contraction in earnings.
Source: UOB Kay Hian Research - 29 May 2017
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ON POSSIBLE BANK MERGERS (involving Affin)
=====================================
(i) Existing major shareholders will gladly sell their stakes at P/B of 1x i.e. at 4.54. But who will be willing to pay at this grossly inflated price based on a grossly overvalued NTA. Will there be any buyers? Acquiring Banks are not stupid but are very professional and calculating and will not overpay.
(ii) POLITICALLY NEGATIVE FOR UMNO to sell Affin , a Bumi owned bank to Alliance Bank which is controlled by Singapore Institutions. UMNO/BN will face a severe political backlash. Besides such a proposal will be opposed by Malay NGOS
SUMMARY/CONCLUSION
NOT POSSIBLE FOR AFFIN TO BE INVOLVED IN ANY MERGERS (under the present conditions)

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-12 17:04 | Report Abuse

UOBKAYHIAN REPORT HIGHLIGHTS ON AFFIN'S 1Q RESULTS

(I) Sharp spike in Gross Impaired Loans (GIL)
Asset quality deteriorated significantly while LLC (loan loss cover ) fell sharply to 38% by far the worst in the industry
(ii) projected a 10% YoY contraction in earnings.

AS warned by blogger, JAY, our Malaysian Banking Sector will be facing greater NPL pressures due to the coming implementation of F....9 effective July 2017. More stringent measures to govern the classification of NPLs?GILs. Will hit the bottom lines of banks especially those with poorer loan assets qualities. Need to cautious on the outlook of banks's earnings for the next few quarters which may be depressed by bigger provisionings for GILs

KYA : U may get your targetted 2.50 which is just below UOB's 2.55.
May be helped by the overdue correction that analysts are now calling for the Dow and S&P
due to the Friday burst of the Technology NASDAG Bubble which dived 3%. Asian n EU
marts are now in the red.

(It is all our hope that as we gain more knowledge through sharing of info in this Forum we will all be better equipped to make better investing decisions and become more successful/happy investors)

Posted by aklobi > 2017-06-12 17:38 | Report Abuse

TheContrarian.. in Malaysia I'm in Affin.. In Indonesia, I'm in SMGR & BBNI.. In Philippines, I'm in SSP.. In Dubai I'm in UPP.. I diversify countries with stocks lol..

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-12 18:40 | Report Abuse

Then you have to keep track of the currency rates of those countries. Why invest in those countries?

Posted by aklobi > 2017-06-12 19:25 | Report Abuse

Initially I got hooked with major IPOs inwhich I made good instant money (excluding Malaysia of course). Then I started following certain stocks which I liked and started accumulating slowly.. both Indonesia and Philippines are emerging markets with high potential. Especially Indonesia after Jokowi, a reformist, became president. I'm following the currencies, actually the currency dips made those countries attractive. Now, I made some gains in both the currencies and stocks.

Posted by yuanlong57 > 2017-06-12 20:07 | Report Abuse

Darrenliew, a big LIKE
[ It is all our hope that as we gain more knowledge through sharing of info in this Forum we will all be better equipped to make better investing decisions and become more successful/happy investors ]
Objective views well-substantiated with relevant data underpinned by rational elaboration and contention.
Another enlightened page in the log of my learning curve.
Thanks to everyone here.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-12 21:28 | Report Abuse

yuanlong, if you click on the "Headlines" button above, you can view all four research reports on Affin after release of latest QR. One was ftom OUBKayHian which our friend above copied word for word. The other 3 reports are from Kenanga, HongLeong and MIDF. You should also view our friend's prior comments on Affin which he previously called for a buy. Read the comments before he erases them. :-)

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-12 22:43 | Report Abuse

TRUE. BUT MY HAD SINCE REASSESSED FROM MY PREVIOUS BUY CALL TO A K.I.V. (AND LOOKING FOR A LOWER ENTRY PRICE ) AFTER MY DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF NTA (WHICH I HAD ELABORATED ABOVE. )
MOST IMPORTANTLY I NO LONGER ACCEPT ANY ASSIGNED NTA FOR ANY BANK AS FIXED OR REALISTICALLY REPRESENT THE ACTUAL OR TRUE VALUE. ANY BANK'S LOAN ASSETS BECAUSE SUCH ASSETS CAN SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATE. THAT IS WHY ANALYSTS DO NOT JUST BLINDLY USE 1x Price to Book to compute fair value pricing for banking stocks.

UIOBKAHHIAN IS A REPUTABLE STOCK ANALYST AND THEY HAVE GOOD GROUNDS TO HEAVILY DISCOUNT AFFIN'S NTA BY USING 0.55x P/B TO ARRIVE AT ITS FAIR VALUE PRICE OF 2.55

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-12 22:49 | Report Abuse

I HAVE NO REASON TO ERASE MY EARLIER COMMENTS AND ASSESSMENTS OF ANY STOCK.
HOWEVER I , LIKE ANY INVESTOR INCLUDING CONTRARIAN, HAVE A RIGHT TO REASSESS AND CHANGE MY OPINIONS AND STANCE TOWARDS ANY STOCK.

ANYWAY I AM A NOBODY AND READERS NEED NOT SHARE AND AGREE WITH MY PERSONAL VIEWS/

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-12 23:00 | Report Abuse

STOCK MARKETS ARE DYNAMIC AND CHANGES ALL THE TIME.
HENCE WE MUST LIKE-WISE ALSO ADAPT AND ADJUST OUR SHARE INVESTMENT DECISIONS. THAT'S THE REASON MANY WELL KNOWN INVESTMENT GURUS ADVISE US TO CONSTANTLY MONITOR/REVIEW AND ADJUST OUR PORTFOLIOS AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RELEVANT NEW INFO AND DATA

I TAKE PRIDE THAT I AM NOW ABLE TO ADOPT SUCH ADVICE

Posted by yuanlong57 > 2017-06-12 23:52 | Report Abuse

TheContrarian, appreciate your friendly reminder.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-12 23:54 | Report Abuse

I suppose some people's strategy is to talk down a counter so that can scoop up at cheaper re-entry price.

Posted by yuanlong57 > 2017-06-13 01:53 | Report Abuse

My experiences in various counter forums have taught me to read and deduce conclusions beyond what means the eyes. Still remember the "Disruptor Factor" in MAA?

Posted by Sarawakian8 > 2017-06-13 05:23 | Report Abuse

EPF disposed non-stop. Why? Not happy Affin use bank money to fry OTB stocks? Latest is AYS and Choo Bee which KYY also mentioned.
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annchsh/5185.jsp

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-13 08:01 | Report Abuse

I maintain my dignity by not being personal in my comments on other readers. I will focus on the markets n the counters. "TO EACH HIS OWN" Each investor has his strategies on stock selections and their timing . Its normal for any investor have his own timing for enter a stock. Everyone do this and practise bargain hunting.
Stock marts are dynamic. Hence there will always be different opinions and changing strategies.
Hence while Kenanga use a P/B of 0.63x , UOB applied a lower P/B of 0.55x to arrive at its fair value price of 2.55 for Affin. Each have its own reasons. Nobody can be sure who is right or wrong.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-13 08:06 | Report Abuse

EPF last disposed of Affin in April but last week EPF disposed of AmBank 11.6 mil, Bank Islam 10.1 mil, HongLeong Bank 1.8 mil, Maybank 23 mil & Public Bank 12 mil.

Posted by yuanlong57 > 2017-06-13 19:24 | Report Abuse

The problem with institutional investors is, owing to the huge funds at their disposal, each time they buy or sell they cause unsettling price waves.

Posted by Buybuybuy > 2017-06-14 10:00 | Report Abuse

Trading buy call 4.20. Expecting great results after the reconstruction of the company. Might be the target of the big banks which try to expand theirs business

Posted by titus > 2017-06-14 15:34 | Report Abuse

Bought more affin today. Not sure will US announce any rate hike tonight. Anyhow, i find affin is attractive now. My guess is affin is inactive because of the warrant. After july, hope to see some action also couple with the upcoming GE.

Posted by aklobi > 2017-06-15 06:31 | Report Abuse

TheContrarian.. any near term outlook? What bottom price shd we expect in this downwards cycle?

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-15 07:39 | Report Abuse

I think when Kenanga unloaded, some contra players bought hoping to make fast bucks but when price didn't rebound they couldn't take up on T+3 which explains the daily forced selling after 4pm. Some people says it will go to 2.55 or 2.50. You may not get it at that level. Two of my counters : Insas and Cresbuilder are currently rallying. Insas-WB I accumulated just before last month's QR have rallied over 60% in less than 3 weeks while Cresbuilder has rallied 20% in one week or so. I always say : Diversify.

Posted by titus > 2017-06-15 07:50 | Report Abuse

I think FED has raise interest rate. Suprisingly, not much coverage by local news. Hope it will positive for local bank.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-15 08:29 | Report Abuse

Shouldn't be any impact on KLSE or even on Dollar. Donald Trump doesn't want a strong dollar.

Posted by titus > 2017-06-15 08:44 | Report Abuse

but if US interest rate hike, historically, the regional will follow the same eventually. Hence, it should be positive for bank.

Posted by aklobi > 2017-06-15 08:51 | Report Abuse

TheContrarian.. ok let's diversify then! I can't honestly see a stock as good as Affin.. plz suggest some that I can research.. i like good value stocks, low P/E ratio, near their 52week lows, with good regular div giveouts and decent quarterly results.. you have the floor sir: