Posted by LuckyWinner > 2021-02-03 10:05 | Report Abuse

I can understand why nobody is buying now, because last week, it's trading at 0.225-0.23,so 5 day average vwap is still low, maybe after 3 more days, let see how

Posted by Enilec Mak > 2021-02-03 10:08 | Report Abuse

lucky winner, floor price is 26 sen. so all those past few days vwap prices won't matter much. if bimb wanted to minimise payment, they won't revise 26 sen as floor price, so all those prices below 26 sen are irrelevant. bimb will fix the price in 2-3 weeks time.

Posted by Kadir > 2021-02-03 10:13 | Report Abuse

Enilec Mak...that's when the QR will b announced

Posted by DeepValueInvestor > 2021-02-03 10:15 | Report Abuse

Intentionally pushed down by operators to collect low. Just buy on dips, dont let them collect

Posted by LuckyWinner > 2021-02-03 10:22 | Report Abuse

Anyone one know the exact vwap price yesterday?

Posted by Enilec Mak > 2021-02-03 10:28 | Report Abuse

lucky winner... the vwap price now is not important...price fixing is in 2 weeks time.

Posted by LuckyWinner > 2021-02-03 10:43 | Report Abuse

Well.. maybe the operator is bimb itself now.

Posted by DeepValueInvestor > 2021-02-03 10:43 | Report Abuse

Well looks like we have to keep buying on dip and hold for 2 weeks time until the operators come and push it up for us

Posted by Enilec Mak > 2021-02-03 10:54 | Report Abuse

is best to buy our main block of shares now...say we avg out our cost to 28 sen. downside is 2 sen loss as floor price is 26 sen. Come closer to 2 weeks time, we all help each other out. each of us buy 30% of our current holdings to push the price up...For example: we buy 100,000 shares at 28 sen NOW = RM28,000. Then closer to price fixing we buy another 34,000 shares say at 33 sen = RM11,220.

Total cost of purchase is RM39,220, avg price is RM0.2927. Buy back at say VWAP is 32.5 sen. (Profit = 0.325-0.2927 = 0.0323 sen x 134,000 = RM4,328 (11% return for 2.5 months holding period with protection on downside risk of 26 sen)

Posted by DeepValueInvestor > 2021-02-03 11:27 | Report Abuse

I am in, just buying in slowly if the operators keep pressing down the price

Posted by paperplane > 2021-02-03 11:33 | Report Abuse

you all too ideal. best is buy last year when no body want at 0.21 or 0.23. I dont think rushing in game now a good strategy since i alredi have mine enough profit. Sitting to see game only now, hehe.

Posted by Enilec Mak > 2021-02-03 11:38 | Report Abuse

Low price doesn't necesarily means low risk. Last year at 0.21 or 0.23 price is before BNM/MOF approval for the restructuring. The banking industry back then was still struggling with the uncertainty of covid. All other companies' share prices were lower then. The risk holding on to BIMB-wa back then is way much higher than now despite the lower price.

Now we have a floor price of 26 sen, a certainty that the buy back will happen as the company just announced application for a court convened meeting. All is moving towards completion.

Last year....so much more uncertainty.

Posted by theintinvestor > 2021-02-03 11:57 | Report Abuse

good sharing guys...kipidap

Posted by Hotstuff > 2021-02-03 14:26 | Report Abuse

bought 200k units at 0.27

Posted by Enilec Mak > 2021-02-03 14:35 | Report Abuse

if we read about wallstreetbet, bursabet and all...this is the most ideal counter for such strategy.

Unlimited upside with a ready buyer who is a bank and not some cheapo company who will buy your warant at any price as long as its market price, irregardless of whether that price is grossly overvalued or not.

Posted by DeepValueInvestor > 2021-02-03 14:47 | Report Abuse

Enilec Mak, should join force with Sipek Huat to create a telegram group for educational purposes. Once in a blue moon opportunity trade that caps your downside

Posted by LookingForGrowth > 2021-02-03 16:01 | Report Abuse

Yes, this warrant is suitable for retail buying strategy.

Posted by lchuanse > 2021-02-03 16:03 | Report Abuse

Using Black Scholes Option calculator, the warrant price should be between 0.50 to 0.6, based on strike price of 4.72, 34mths to expiry, volatility of 35% to 40%, dividend yield of 5%, risk free interest of 2%

Posted by lchuanse > 2021-02-03 16:05 | Report Abuse

The outstanding warrant is 426,715,078. about 50% traded yesterday and up till today

Posted by lchuanse > 2021-02-03 16:13 | Report Abuse

62.18% of warrants hold by top 30 warrant holders.

Posted by lchuanse > 2021-02-03 16:16 | Report Abuse

Lembaga Tabung Haji holds 27.54%

Posted by DeepValueInvestor > 2021-02-03 16:27 | Report Abuse

@Ichuanse Hmmmm, .5-.6, my conservative TP is .63, optimistic TP is 1 lol.

I am pretty sure the swing drop in the morning was by big sharks, If they swing low again, we buy again when dip.

Posted by DeepValueInvestor > 2021-02-03 16:29 | Report Abuse

@Ichuanse, well I am always too optimistic, optimistic TP of RM1 will not be reached if everyone is selling at .5-.6

Posted by Enilec Mak > 2021-02-03 16:31 | Report Abuse

Balance of 38% is only RM45 mn in value. Small sum . Price can easily run up.

Posted by LuckyWinner > 2021-02-03 19:12 | Report Abuse

Today vwap 0.2868.
Well.. at least better than yesterday..ha ha

Posted by DeepValueInvestor > 2021-02-03 20:14 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/DeepValueInvestor/2021-02-03-story-h1540305821-BIMB_WA_a_hidden_gem_to_be_discovered.jsp

Posted by Enilec Mak > 2021-02-03 21:08 | Report Abuse

bro...,the strike price should be 4.72 instead of 4.27. You might also want to consider historical volatility from April 2020 onwards , taking out the pandemic panic selling in March 2020.

Posted by vespa > 2021-02-03 22:38 | Report Abuse

hey guys this warrant pricing seems to be well controlled, it buys up to 30 sen and deliberately run down to 27 sen. How sure are we that it would perform to BS predicted value. By the way the 10 year MGS is about 2.7% which is used as the risk free rate and I wonder what extrinsic value ( time value) there is left.

I hope you guys are right that fairl play exist

Posted by theintinvestor > 2021-02-03 22:54 | Report Abuse

question is why did they changed from 0.26 price to VWAP 5 days or min 0.26? anyone will benefit from this move?

Posted by Enilec Mak > 2021-02-03 23:17 | Report Abuse

Hi vespa. I don't think it was deliberately runned down to 27 sen. It was sold down by one or several individual investors which holds a large block of warrants. The warrants are mainly held by individuals, save for LTH and ASB. The option pricing value is just an indication of how far undervalued the warrant market price is currently at.

It did not take into account the "transaction premium" i.e. the rights of the warrant holders to jam up the on-going restructuring scheme. If BIMB fails to buy back all the warrants, it will be much more difficult to proceed with the restructuring plan.

The restructuring exercise involves asset worth about RM4.5-5 billion. Say 1% cost savings ? works out to be RM45-50 million which is worth around 11 sen / warrant.

Therefore the value of the warrant from the perspective of BIMB will be option value as per the calculator + transaction premium =

RM0.40 + RM0.11 sen = RM0.51 sen... thereabouts.

the change in the risk free rate shouldn't change the option value by much. the time to expiry is 3 years, should be more reflective if 3 year RF rate were used instead of 10 year MGS.

Posted by Enilec Mak > 2021-02-03 23:20 | Report Abuse

theintinvestor....what is your view on the change in the buy back price ?....If you are BIMB , why would you suddenly change the buy back price from 0.26 sen maximum to 0.26 sen minimum ?....

Why as BIMB, do you want to pay more to the warrant holders ?

Posted by DeepValueInvestor > 2021-02-03 23:35 | Report Abuse

Bros, I updated the article with the right strike price and annualized volatility from 1 April 2020 to 3 Feb 2021 data. I think I deserve some likes and a beer

Posted by DeepValueInvestor > 2021-02-03 23:37 | Report Abuse

@theintinvestor the major shareholders get to receive a big amount of cash for WC if the warrant price is raised significantly

Posted by Enilec Mak > 2021-02-03 23:49 | Report Abuse

i buy you beer anytime after MCO bro...u just name the place and time.

Posted by vespa > 2021-02-04 00:00 | Report Abuse

Enilec Mak, so this is the leverage " If BIMB fails to buy back all the warrants, it will be much more difficult to proceed with the restructuring plan." Well you must have done your work all the best.

Posted by okdoke > 2021-02-04 00:00 | Report Abuse

BIMB increase the buyback via 5 day vwap or RM0.26 ( whichever is higher) as a result of lapse on their First announcement 11 Dec 2019. They expected to complete this exercise by Nov 2020 but BNM and Ministry of Finance approval are not forthcoming until 12 Dec 2020 ( MCO and other reasons) Usually the approval would be obtained in 6 month time and High Court hearing in 1 - 1.5 months. They can resubmit to BNM but more time would be wasted. ( LTH is in dire need to get their 800 M sukuk redemption I guess ) . And with the lapse, they have to at least maintain RM0.26 and during High Court , the Judge would be happy to hear (and approve) that the price VWAP is the prevailing market and fair price My two sen opinion

Posted by Enilec Mak > 2021-02-04 00:04 | Report Abuse

Just some thoughts before sleep, as we thank #deepvalueinvestor for his generosity in coming up with the option value of RM0.59 sen, some would ask, if the warrant true value is so high, why didn't it trade to that range for the past 1.5 years...?

I would like to think that similar to a lot of undervalued companies out there where analysts reports' indicate that such stocks are 30%,40% ,50% undervalued/strong buy/accumulate etc etc.....I think in order for price to move, there is always a need for some sort of catalyst to boost the price momentum upwards.

For bimb-wa , the catalyst is now with us....As we approach the end game IN A MONTH'S time at most, bimb would need to fix the 5 day VWAP price as the buy back price.

BIMB is genuinely shouting out LOUDLY to us....Please, I pay you for your warrants at any price as long as its the market 5 day VWAP price....If you guys managed to push it up to 60 sen, I WILL pay you 60 sen / warrant...or if you can do better and push it to 90 sen, I WILL pay you 90 sen / warrant.

Just give me the warrants so that I can complete the restructuring exercise and move on with my banking business.....

As far-fetched the above may sound, sometimes the truth is really stranger than fiction.....

Posted by okdoke > 2021-02-04 00:17 | Report Abuse

I was anxious as well and suspend my buying ( which started in May 2020 and about to abandon this restructuring. It was too much of a risk taken amidst of Covid , bankruptcy, unemployment etc. Food on table is the most priority. That was the time when the price went down to 11 sen because BIMB could always issue notice that "BIMB has decided not to proceed with the Proposal at this juncture". Now the restructuring is proceeding and thank God

Posted by Envestor > 2021-02-04 01:07 | Report Abuse

I agree with Enilec Mak, many stocks in Bursa is "undervalued" when compared with fundamentals. It needs a catalyst for the shares to move and in this case for BIMB-WA, it's us.

Posted by DeepValueInvestor > 2021-02-04 08:27 | Report Abuse

@Envestor exactly, share it out, let the topglov fans know this is the bursabets they should be focusing on instead

Posted by DeepValueInvestor > 2021-02-04 09:23 | Report Abuse

Once we can break the 30 cents heavy road block, flying to the model predicted value shouldnt be a problem

Posted by Enilec Mak > 2021-02-04 09:27 | Report Abuse

ha ha...looks like momentum is building.....

Posted by CakapSohaiThings > 2021-02-04 09:28 | Report Abuse

I think operators have not collected enough, see how they are trying to suppress the price from going up above .3 with 100k lot

Posted by DeepValueInvestor > 2021-02-04 09:32 | Report Abuse

Gogogo, once this great wall of china is broken, we will fly to the moon. Not advisable to collect above if the warrant price is above RM0.59. I will do a daily update on the model predicted warrant price at night. Stay tuned guys.

Posted by Enilec Mak > 2021-02-04 09:41 | Report Abuse

breaking greatwall now...

Posted by Enilec Mak > 2021-02-04 09:41 | Report Abuse

mother price also went up...

Posted by Enilec Mak > 2021-02-04 09:43 | Report Abuse

its broken...the manchus have breached the wall....

Posted by Kadir > 2021-02-04 09:54 | Report Abuse

Stillwater runs deep

Posted by Enilec Mak > 2021-02-04 10:00 | Report Abuse

Yes..En Kadir....it is a glorious day today

Posted by Envestor > 2021-02-04 10:04 | Report Abuse

exciting day today, hopefully this momentum keeps up