Posted by hng33 > 2016-09-28 18:21 | Report Abuse

Gamuda just release latest q result..

Comment on splash water......discussion with state gov is at advance stage, an agreement on splash disposal is expect to reach before end 2016

Posted by hng33 > 2016-09-28 18:28 | Report Abuse

Gamuda have very well diversified business, expressway+ water contributed 53% profit, follow by eng and construction 25% and property development 22%.

Profit from MRT 1 is at tailing end, reach 91-92% completion. MRT 2 work is at still early commencement, and it will ensure Gamuda next 5 earning visibility.

Posted by rogers123 > 2016-09-28 18:42 | Report Abuse

Sorry, Upsidedown119... This time i support hng. He is telling the true. But i dont like the way he like to show off. Hahahaha. Silent is the key to success

Posted by Stephen Chow > 2016-09-28 19:22 | Report Abuse

hmm. no growth in earmings..maybe tats why major institutions disposed..

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-09-28 21:09 | Report Abuse

YTD profit down. Also sword of Damocles (Splash sale) hanging over it. Share buy-back authority is for share-price support in case price weakens too much. Draw your own conclusions ladies and gentlemen.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-09-28 21:25 | Report Abuse

Q4 2016 result is better than I expected.
For a construction stock, order book is more important.
There are many projects awaiting in the pipeline. Please read the below link :-
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kltrader/102500.jsp

1. Awarded RM 15.5 billion tunnel project of MRT2.
2. Appointed project manager for MRT2.
3. Sell Splash to Selangor government in October 2016.
4. Secure Pan Borneo highway project worth RM 1.57 billion.
5. May get one of LRT3 project from GKent.
6. Appointed the major contractor for Penang Transport Master Plan project worth RM 25 billion.

There will be growth in 2017 once MRT2 started.
Thank you.

Posted by smartrader2020 > 2016-09-28 21:43 | Report Abuse

MTDACPI is coming after you, Gamuda.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/discoverychannel/105320.jsp

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-09-28 23:30 | Report Abuse

Yeah likely good buy after uncertainty of Splash sale is gone.

Posted by Huat1 > 2016-09-29 08:59 | Report Abuse

CIMB RESEARCH, 29 September 2016

GAMUDA
Renewed bright spots
■ FY7/16 core net profit was 2-3% above our and consensus full-year forecasts.
■ Decline in earnings expected and marked a turning point for new infra profits.
■ RM3bn-4bn potential new infra jobs in the pipeline. Huge order book upside likely.
■ Gamuda now positioning to tender for the KL-Singapore HSR project.
■ Sale of Splash and recovery of job wins in 2H16 are key catalysts.

FY7/16 results above expectations
FY16 core net profit was 3% above our and 2% ahead of consensus forecasts. The overall results were broadly in line. The 8.3% decline in core net profit was largely expected, given the tail-end recognition of MRT 1 earnings and lower property development margins. FY16 marked an inflection point where new MRT 2 earnings on the back of an all-time high order book of RM9bn began to flow into FY17. The total 12 sen single-tier DPS for the full-year was in line with our expectation.

Bullish undertones for construction
Potential larger-value construction wins was the main positive surprise from Gamuda's results briefing. Over the next 12 months, management targets to secure RM3bn-4bn worth of infrastructure projects. These could come from: 1) LRT 3, 2) subcontract works for the Gemas-JB double-tracking rail project, and 3) Pan Borneo Highway in Sabah.
The new guidance puts the value of each targeted package at c.RM1bn.

A viable candidate for MRT 3
With the award phase of MRT 2 underway, MRT Corp is now targeting to submit the feasibility studies for MRT 3 (the last component of KVMRT) by end-2016. MRT 3 is likely to be largely underground and the most tunnel-intensive. The potential contract value could be substantially higher than the RM15.5bn underground scope for MRT 2 given the higher cost/km. Gamuda has so far secured underground packages from MRT 1 and MRT 2 via the MMC-Gamuda JV (50:50).

Positioning to tender for HSR too
Gamuda is positioning to tender for the RM30bn-40bn KL-Singapore high-speed rail (HSR) project now that the project has better tender time visibility i.e. end-2017. Management highlighted that a project of this size and scale fits into the group’s expertise and track record. At this juncture, it only targets to tender for the civil works but remains open to the possibility of taking on a bigger role in the project. However, this would depend on the final project structure.

Catalyst to revive Splash deal in the works
Updates on the sale of 40%-owned Splash support our view that this angle could be revived in 4Q16. Press reports highlighted that an agreement to resolve the long-drawn valuation issue is in the works, in time to meet the 6 Oct deadline (next week). Splash’s current book value is c.RM2.8bn. We believe that the eventual offer price should be closer to, if not on par with, 1xBV. The last rejected offer was at 0.1x P/BV.

Add retained; sector top pick
We raise our target price as we roll over our valuation to end-2017 (still pegged to a 10% RNAV discount). We continue to like Gamuda for its earnings turnaround in FY17F and exposure to large-scale rail projects. It remains our sector top pick. Downside risk is delay in job rollouts but this is outweighed by the revival of job wins, sale of water asset
and the likely recovery in foreign shareholding (currently at a low of 22%).

Posted by uvlam > 2016-09-29 08:59 | Report Abuse

cimb coverage look good

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-09-29 09:10 | Report Abuse

Q4 2016 result is better than I expected.
For a construction stock, order book is more important.
Thank you.

Posted by hng33 > 2016-09-29 09:14 | Report Abuse

Agreed with OTB, as order book in construction is alike unbilled sale for property, both deliver same impact....ensure earning visibility for next few year.

Posted by hng33 > 2016-09-29 09:21 | Report Abuse

In addition, there is BIG different in Gamuda comment on splash in latest Q4 result if compared to previous Q3.

Q3 2016: comment on splash: discussion with state gov is at advance stage.

Q4 2016: comment on splash: discussion with state gov is at advance stage, An agreement on splash disposal is expect to reach before end 2016

Remark: in latest Q4, gamuda highlighted additional: AN AGREEMENT ON SPLASH DISPOSAL IS EXPECT TO REACH BEFORE END 2016................the keyword is AGREEMENT

Posted by Huat1 > 2016-09-29 09:30 | Report Abuse

CIMB IB Research has maintained its “Add” rating on Gamuda Bhd
with a higher target price of RM5.97 (from RM5.92).

Posted by hng33 > 2016-09-29 09:33 | Report Abuse

Gamuda business division catalyst:

1. Construction: more award of infra work from LRT3+ MRT3 + HSR
2. Property: diversified exposure through Singapore, Vietnam, new launched in Msia
3. Highway concession: Toll hike and resilient traffic growth in Kesas, LDL, sprint
4. Water concession: Splash ----> AN AGREEMENT ON SPLASH DISPOSAL IS EXPECT TO REACH BEFORE END 2016

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-09-29 09:42 | Report Abuse

Splash will never be sold at 250 million.
It is not a fair deal if it is sold at 250 million.
I am very sure Splash will be sold at a fair price agreed by both party.
Thank you.

Posted by hng33 > 2016-09-29 09:58 | Report Abuse

The capability of Gamuda to deliver flat earning despite tapering of its construction underground and elevated works is very good already. With incoming MRT2 commencing, Gamuda future earning only can be better next....GMAUDA : BLUE CHIP stock but with HIGH visibility growth


.......On its prospects for the year ahead, the group said it anticipates a good performance from on-going construction projects and steady earnings from its expressway concessions division.

“The property division’s performance is expected to pick up in the next few quarters due to the launches of several new projects in Malaysia and overseas,” it said.

On the status of the KVMRT Line 1 project, the group said the overall cumulative progress at the end of August 2016 was at 91% completion and was on target for completion of phase one in December 2016 and full completion by July 2017, with no significant cost overruns so far.

As for MRT Line 2, it said the contract award programme was on track with 22 work packages awarded for the construction of the line.....


Remark:

Q1: On its prospects for the year ahead...WHAT is missing point in the gamuda statement above !!??

Ans: water concession is missing ---> inpplying water concession is on track to sell, but with agree price tag. :D)

Posted by Huat1 > 2016-09-29 10:45 | Report Abuse

The report by The Edge today with the headline...

"Gamuda's Q4 profit flattish; full-year earnings down 8.2%"

This might have influenced some investors' view/confidence on the outlook of this company...

Posted by Myeye > 2016-09-29 14:03 | Report Abuse

Gamudas FY7/16 net profit of MYR626m (-8%) was very much in-line with our forecast and consensus. A positive surprise was the super strong property sales in 4QFY16, from overseas projects. We make no change to our FY17-18 earnings estimates, expecting growth to resume in FY17 with +14% YoY net profit. We remain positive and reiterate the stock as the sectors top big-cap BUY. Our RNAV-based TP is MYR5.55 (unchanged).

Posted by hng33 > 2016-09-29 15:52 | Report Abuse

Fund is accumulating

Posted by greatful > 2016-09-29 15:58 | Report Abuse

Gamuda's FY16 results beat our forecast by 8% but met consensus estimates. The variance against our projection came largely from unexpectedly strong overseas property sales during the final quarter. Overall, its FY16 net profit eased 8% as MRT1 was at the tail-end while MRT2 had yet to start contributing. We raise our FY17F/18F earnings forecasts by 12% and 6% largely to factor in Gamuda’s guidance for potential construction job wins of RM3-4bil over the next 12 months. Our forecasts now assume Gamuda to secure RM2bil new jobs annually in FY17F and FY18F, from none previously. We maintain our BUY call but reduce our FV by 5% to RM5.60 after we factor in the dilution from Warrants 2016/2020 and update its balance sheet.

Gamuda is hopeful to secure contracts worth RM3-4bil from Gemas – Johor Bahru double tracking, Pan Borneo Highway (Sabah) and LRT3 over the next 12 months. It is equally bullish on the outlook for the local construction sector over the next three years, backed by KL-Singapore high-speed rail, MRT3 and Penang Transport Master Plan (PTMP) which have a combined project value in excess of RM100bil. Gamuda recorded MYR2.05bil property sales in FY16, up by 69% vis-à-vis MYR1.21bil in FY15. It guided for MYR2.12bil property sales in FY17. As at end-4QFY16, its unbilled sales stood at MYR1.2bil, up from RM1bil three months ago. For PTMP, Gamuda already submitted its plan for the George Town - Bayan Lepas LRT line to Land Transport Commission (SPAD). It hopes to complete the environmental and social impact assessment studies for submission to the Department of Environment by year end. It expects approvals from 2H2017. Gamuda is the best proxy to the booming construction sector in Malaysia given its dominant role in MRT and its involvement in Pan Borneo Highway. Its earnings visibility is strong backed by construction and MRT project delivery partner (PDP) backlogs of RM9.0bil (Exhibit 3) and RM7.5bil respectively. It has booked itself a ticket to ride on the next infrastructure/property boom in Penang via its PDP role in PTMP.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-09-29 15:59 | Report Abuse

Key word is 'agreement'? But agreement at what price? The public knows that agreement deadline is 7th Oct 2016, or WASIA.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-09-29 16:16 | Report Abuse

Fund - EPF - had been disposing and acquiring but in smaller volume. The big sellers are Amanah Saham Bumiputra and KWAP. E.g. ASB disposed more than 6 million shares during September 2016 to date.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-09-29 16:30 | Report Abuse

If I am in the shoes of the Fed govt, facing a cash squeeze due to low oil and gas prices and likely facing a possible snap general election, I would use WASIA and clear out Splash at RM250 million. Gamuda can take the fed govt to court but this would buy at least 2 to 3 years time if not longer. The Fed govt can then resolve the water problem in Selangor at the least cost and show the electorate the ruthless efficiency of the Fed govt in resolving problems.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-09-29 16:41 | Report Abuse

Go by facts, not by spin. The spinners are spinning so much that they should be hooked to a generator to produce electricity. In fact one is spinning like a fortune teller in repeatedly using the word 'never' in regard to the future. Maybe 'never' for sale of Splash for RM250 million. But even at 'fair' price of RM1 billion, Gamuda may still have a divestment loss. Only at RM2.5 billion will Gamuda break even. But at RM2.5 billion, shareholders of KPS will laugh all the way to the bank! I would wait for concrete news on Splash sale.

Posted by Huat1 > 2016-09-29 16:43 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kltrader/105403.jsp

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-09-29 16:55 | Report Abuse

The link is a good report. Note the ambiguities under Concessions: 1) the second last line of first point - "Gamuda..assisting..parties..to reach a more FLEXIBLE valuation of...Splash; 2) the first and second line - if sale of Splash materialise, Gamuda's earnings will see a significant drop...RM100 million to RM150 million per year.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-09-29 17:13 | Report Abuse

40% holding of Splash is making RM100 million to RM150 million per year.
100% of Splash is selling at RM250 million sounds wrong lah. No such cheap sale in Malaysia.
Splash will never be sold at 250 million.
Am I correct ?

Wait until next month to verify this fact is correct or wrong.
Thank you.

Posted by imoogi99 > 2016-09-29 17:17 | Report Abuse

How many units ASB dispose during september? Ans: 6 mil as stated above.
How many units ASB had after disposal? Ans: 145 mil.
Chicken feed disposal.....ha ha ha.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5215161

Posted by M168 > 2016-09-29 17:26 | Report Abuse

PROPOSED RENEWAL OF SHARE BUY-BACK AUTHORITY
28 Sep 2016, 07:00

Posted by imoogi99 > 2016-09-29 17:27 | Report Abuse

How many units KWAP had dispose in September? Ans: I dont know.
How many units KWAP still own after the disposal? Ans: 169 mil.
Another chicken feed disposal...ha ha ha.

It is normal for funds disposal or buying unless they clear it out from their funding. EPF still had about 285mil shares in Gamuda....so nothing to worry abt unless funds are disposing it big amount.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5215137

Posted by hng33 > 2016-09-29 17:35 | Report Abuse

:D)

Posted by imoogi99 > 2016-09-29 17:44 | Report Abuse

Amanah Saham Bumiputra still owns 145mil units of Gamuda....5.99%.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5215161

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-09-29 17:45 | Report Abuse

70% to 80% of the RM250 million profit per year is due to inflated rates to feed dedak. Likely that's why Azmin and Khalid were not paying more than RM250 million.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-09-29 17:45 | Report Abuse

ASB disposed over 4% of its holdings in one month in September. This chicken feed?

Posted by imoogi99 > 2016-09-29 17:49 | Report Abuse

" Posted by upsidedown119 > Sep 29, 2016 04:16 PM | Report Abuse

Fund - EPF - had been disposing and acquiring but in smaller volume. The big sellers are Amanah Saham Bumiputra and KWAP. E.g. ASB disposed more than 6 million shares during September 2016 to date. "

6mil shares or 4% of holding????? Hmmm....something wrong somewhere....it does not compute. As announced in bursa on 23 Sept ASB still owns 145mil shares which is 5.99%. Anyway I rest my case.

Posted by imoogi99 > 2016-09-29 17:58 | Report Abuse

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5196117
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5218165

2nd September after disposal still own 6.78%
29th September after disposal still own 5.78%.

So where does the 4% disposal of holdings come from....pluck the number from the air I guess.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-09-29 18:07 | Report Abuse

6 million shares of 151 million shares before disposal is about 4%. That's why I posted that ASB disposed 4% of its holdings of Gamuda shares. This is the meaning in the English grammar.

Posted by imoogi99 > 2016-09-29 20:19 | Report Abuse

Wow.....that is really HUGE disposal for ASB. Wondering when they're going to dispose 50% of their holdings which is about 70mil plus of shares.....ha ha ha.

Posted by hng33 > 2016-09-29 20:22 | Report Abuse

Hahaha, be clear mind, despite reduce stake by some of these fund, what is more important is that share price remain resilient, hold very steady with even gain 10 sen/ share if compared early month sept to end sept.

What it imply is that, cut stake by these fund is well absorb by market, it create more liquitity to the market.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-09-29 20:35 | Report Abuse

Posted by JJchan > Sep 29, 2016 03:48 PM | Report Abuse

Selangor Gov. offer for Splash ( 2.8B or 1.5B ) Gamuda will have EGM or straight reject...
I think 90% Selangor Gov(Azmin) will Buy-Out TanSri WanAzmi Wan Hamzah shares so Azmin
will control 60% of Splash---End Story-----How much will KPS get????
Based on 1.5B share between Sweet Water and KPS---each will receive 750m-----RM1.50/share
for KPS (keeping finger Cross + a Big pillow tonite )

Ans : The aforesaid article is from KPS forum.
2.8 billion sounds better than Splash is sold for 250 million which is not back up with facts and figures.
It is a good news for both Gamuda and KPS.
Thank you for this good information.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2016-09-29 20:45 | Report Abuse

Gamuda-WD listed around 0.72, expired around 3.00. Likewise, Gamuda-WA, WB and WC. Not a single warrant of Gamuda lost money within 5 years.

Gamuda-WE listed at 0.82, will Gamuda-WE follows the same aforesaid trend ? If history repeats itself, then should follow the same trend. I hope so.
I want to add that Gamuda secured more projects now than previously.

The performance of Gamuda will be better from 2017 onward.

Thank you.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-09-29 21:07 | Report Abuse

Longer term I would still buy Gamuda, but let the Splash sale 'splash' away first!

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-09-29 21:12 | Report Abuse

Amanah Saham Bumiputra just announced disposal of another 5 million Gamuda shares. EPF also announced net disposal of 885,400 Gamuda shares. So ASB disposed 11 million or 7.29% of its holdings of Gamuda shares so far in September. More tomorrow? Note that the disposals were just before the RM250 million 'agreement' or WASIA deadline of 7th October 2016. Anyone still want to spin that it is 'chicken feed' and 'nothing to worry abt'?

Posted by imoogi99 > 2016-09-29 21:15 | Report Abuse

Wont lose sleep with those chicken feed disposal. EPF disposal of 885400....ha ha ha...Maybe you want to check EPF and Tabung Haji for the whole of Sept only and see if they're net buyer or net disposal....ha ha ha.

Posted by hng33 > 2016-09-29 21:25 | Report Abuse

Wow, fund sold so much ya.....and yet share price very steady performed ler......more liquitity in market in prepared for ultimate surge above RM 5.00.......hahaha

Posted by hng33 > 2016-09-29 21:34 | Report Abuse

目前值得关注的是，金务大持股40%的雪州水务控股（Splash）最快可能在下个月易主，假设出价是一倍账面值，金务大将可获分12亿令吉，惟这笔钱不太可能用于派特别息，而是会被用在槟城交通蓝图计划上。”

不过，肯纳格研究提醒，虽然脱售水务资产可释放资产价值，来自水务业务的贡献却也将消失，雪州水务控股目前约为金务大贡献1亿2000万令吉税前盈利。

Remark: based on Gamuda gain of RM 1.2 billion from sale of its 40% stake in splash and splash contribution of RM 120m profit to Gamuda, it imply valuation PE 10x....... it fair Price tag.

Posted by princehero > 2016-09-29 22:10 | Report Abuse

i just bought gamuda we today at 1.39... hopefully still can profit...

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-09-29 22:45 | Report Abuse

What matters is not their acquisition in the past but their disposals as WASIA deadline nears. Just as Ms Universe may be very beautiful BUT in the past! hahaha!

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-09-29 22:47 | Report Abuse

@princehero. Our resident sifu said you can profit eventually!