RHB Investment Bank Bhd is apprehensive about developers' earnings prospects this year, given the consistently high construction costs resulting from the surge in primary commodities such as crude oil, steel bar, copper, and aluminium.
In a note yesterday, the investment bank said the resulting price hikes in cement, sand, tiles and related products collectively contributed to the surge in total building expenses.
"Major commodity prices saw significant price hikes, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine crisis in March. These include crude oil, steel bar, copper and aluminium, which are the key components in building materials.
"Assuming the uptrend in commodity prices persists over the next six to nine months, besides margin compression, we think developers will tend to be more prudent with their launches.
"Developers will likely resize/re-design and maintain the selling prices and affordability of their products, or look for alternative construction materials that are cheaper to mitigate cost pressure," it said.
According to the recent survey by the Real Estate and Housing Developers' Association Malaysia, property developers generally expect construction costs to surge by an average of 19 per cent this year, due to the rise in building material prices, wages and financing costs.
The survey results also indicated that the average percentage increase in the price of building materials such as aluminium is at 55 per cent, timber at 52 per cent, steel at 38 per cent, cement at 19 per cent, sand at 18 per cent, and concrete at 16 per cent.
Transportation and logistics costs are also important factors.
RHB Investment Bank said that developers have generally set a reduced sales objective this year (about -10 per cent year-on-year) after robust property sales in 2021.
Despite the rolling lockdowns from June to August, total property sales in 2021 increased by about 40 per cent yearly, partially boosted by the Home Ownership Campaign (HOC).
A few developers outperformed their sales projections. S P Setia, Sime Darby Property, Sunway, and Tambun Indah were among them.
"In our view, 2022's more conservative sales targets are probably due to the absence of the Home Ownership Campaign, expectations for an interest rate hike in the second half of 2022, and rising inflationary pressure," it said.
The investment bank said that rising inflationary pressure might potentially dampen household disposable income on the macroeconomic front.
"Given the market has just recovered from last year's lockdown, demand for property may be negatively affected as property is deemed a big-ticket item that is considered non-discretionary. We believe the timing of election and expectation of election results may swing sentiment," it said.
The investment bank believes that reopening the economy and international boundaries will also assist the property sector.
RHB Investment Bank opined that property stocks might offer short-term trading possibilities, given the sector is currently selling at a 64 per cent discount to RNAV, which has remained essentially stable since the end of 2021.
It said that recent news flow on the construction sector such as the takeover of highways in Klang Valley and the green light for the Mass Rapid Transit 3 (MRT3) may potentially have a positive spillover on the sector.
"Although the property sector is not a direct beneficiary, and MRT 3 is not a new project (the three lines were first announced in 2010/2011), we think sentiment on the property sector may improve over the near term, while the sector's cheap valuation is a good reason for investors to enter, especially those with a shorter investment horizon
construstion has been bad and almost stand still since 2018 actually, so now got 2 mega project MRT & sabah borneo highway, this 2 now is the kick start catalyst
Moving forward, the country's strong economic outlook will also help to boost the ringgit, which is projected to strengthen to 4.10 against the US dollar from 4.17 last year despite heightened uncertainty, said Kenanga Research
The research house said it is cautiously bullish on the local note, but noted that the ringgit may continue to trade under pressure in the next few months due to the volatile market environment brought about by the Eastern Europe crisis, China's stringent pandemic-control measures and the United States Federal Reserve's increasingly hawkish tone.
this counter is down trend for so long, similar like kanger, many people got trapped. u want to stay wait until it drop again and again. many good news but price still drop? cut loss or u lose all ur money
ppl be like " have patience " but fail to see the trend of the market, that's why more people stucked and waiting until all the money get burn. it's just a basic but dunno la haha
i ask u, what do you expect when good news come? still share price keep dropping? is it?if thr prices has not improve there must be something wrong and it's happen again and again. if u invest in this stock go on not my money haha i just tell what i see on the price movement.
mager1144, I think what you said makes sense, the price of this stock had went down like crazy already, doesnt that give investor a chance to buy now at cheaper price meh?
As you said , it were long time down trend , but behind this , understand the market sentiment. Construction was long been pull down since mco, same goes to tech and others. Is that showing that is the best chance to invest things that undervalued.
GlobalData expects the Malaysian construction industry to expand by 16.5% this year, supported by further improving economic conditions, the government's focus on completing large infrastructure projects, and increased investment on industrial and energy projects.
Don't impose your moral values unto others. Don't go around telling people how to speak, how to dress up or how to behave. In short mind your own bloody business.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
unclekyyisbest
401 posts
Posted by unclekyyisbest > 2022-04-14 18:22 | Report Abuse
https://www.nst.com.my/property/2022/04/788138/property-sector-bumpy-road-recovery