TSH Resources is not the only plantation company that posted disappointing results in the most recent quarters. If you go through other financial reports, most (if not all) plantation companies are affected by the low CPO price in Jul-Sept period.
In terms of valuation, all plantation stocks are currently trading at a high PE multiple (for those that still managed to record profit) just like TSH. This is reflective of the downturn cycle of the plantation industry. Don't think that the industry will reverse their down cycle anytime soon given the general demand of the commodity is expected to go down in the future. China for example, is negotiating with US to take in more agriculture products from US which would potentially include soybean (or soybean oil). In general, Chinese consumption of oil would not actually go up that much so the increase of soybean oil import from US to China would actually be at the expense of other oil commodities from other countries (in particular palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia). Another issue is on the European demand of palm oil which is expected to go down exponentially given the proposed ban of palm oil use in food and transportation industries in the future. They have already agreed to phase out the use of palm oil in transport fuel by 2030. Some countries like France and Norway have already started to move away from palm oil.
With this in mind you need to have a slightly long-term investment horizon when buying into oil plantation companies like TSH as the return to upcycle might not be in the near future.
If you are looking to diversify your portfolio outside of TSH (due to its earnings uncertainties and relatively high valuation) I would recommend you to look at MBMR.
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.9x PE (based on target FY18 profit of RM145mil. 9m profit is already RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.7x BV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year's 4Q17.
FY19 growth will be driven by the still high demand of the new Myvi and the newly launched SUV Aruz and also the newly revamp Alza in 2H19. The recent announcement of closure and potential disposal of the loss-making alloy wheel manufacturing business alone is expected to boost the company’s profit by an additional RM10mil to RM20mil. I am projecting a profit to shareholder of RM170 mil for FY19 which at the current price values MBMR at only 5.9x PE.
Please go through the analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions. There are 8 analysts in total covering the stock with most of them having a TP of above RM3 (all have a buy rating). The average TP for the 8 analysts is around RM3.50.
TSH has spent huge capex planting in Indonesia for the past 5yrs. With current up trending CPO price the planted palm will boost it's earning & reduce it's borrowing. It's current BV is under estimated. TSH also jv with Wilmar Int in 50 50 basis in palm oil refinery n kernel crushing plant. When CPO uptrends it will generate profit at faster rate compared to other planters (without refinery).
Sentiment towards palm oil is expected to sustain into 2020 due to supply constraints, lower output of alternative oils and prospects of better demand.
TSH's main business segments include oil palm plantations and milling.
Its earning performance has been overall fluctuating in last five years, whereby its earning per share overall fluctuated from -7.85 sen to 10.31sen. In 2018 financial year, TSH reported lower revenue than previous year due to lower average prices of crude palm oil (CPO). Dividend declared is 2 sen per share, which amounts to a dividend yield of 1.29%.
Reiterate OUTPERFORM with an unchanged TP of RM1.90 based on an unchanged Fwd. PER of 24.4x applied on FY20E EPS of 7.69 sen, reflecting +1.0SD valuation basis, justified by: (i) current CPO price of c.RM3,060/MT (TSH was also traded at +1.0SD levels when CPO prices were at RM2,700-2,900/MT in 2017), and (ii) the likelihood of significant sequential earnings improvement ahead. Valuations of other planters under our coverage are pegged at mean to +1.0SD levels.
Risks to our call include sharp falls in CPO prices and a precipitous rise in labour/fertiliser/transportation costs.
Based on comparison of 44 plantation counters listed in Bursa Malaysia, it is found that currently TSH is not ranked as one of the TOP 8 plantation counters worthy to pay attention to and potentially invest in. However, TSH stands out in performance indicators such as having high market capitalization (RM 2,073 million).
2019 much better compared to 2018. TSH and other plantations should report much higher profit. If not something not right. Replanting cost is more or less the same whereas selling price for CPO & PK average selling price much higher
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
-M2-
1,240 posts
Posted by -M2- > 2018-05-21 10:55 | Report Abuse
Because BN lose the Ge14.