Calvin is right about his analysis but the problem is his investment thesis stretches well beyond what most investors can endure. His investment timeframe is more than 3 years. Less than 1 percent of investors has the patience to hold one financial quarter, let alone 3 years
Lol I don't like Warren Buffett because he is secretly a gambler. He touts the importance of value investing, but in truth, he participates in robbing cash from companies and dumping stocks for a profit. But it never got reported in the news. Everyone knows that he is a genius who bought Apple and US blue chip companies, but he made a huge mistake buying Teva Pharmaceuticals. Go check yourself
Malaysian stock market is a weird one though. Very undervalued but also very risky due to the tight geopolitical relation with China and an over-reliance on commodity exports.
Value investing is dead. Growth investing is also dead. 2022 onwards will be the year of savings accounts. This is what happens when every person, mom and pop, the shoe-shiner boy, high school students, jobless people talk about investing in Bitcoin, NFT, penny stocks instead of working hard in life. Tight labour market, no one wants to work, just hoping to make fast gains from stocks and crypto.
Before the year 2021, how many people talk about buying stocks and crypto? Last year during Christmas, when I visited a few relatives, they introduced me to several crypto coins, all of which tanked significantly. Millions of Americans took out their savings and went all in on passive investment funds saw their portfolio underperformed. Fidelity is still luring more customers to buy passive funds and more Americans still fell for it. Because why? These brokerage firms keep pushing the same agenda. Warren Buffett this. Peter Lynch that. Oh, hold 10 years and you become rich. Value investing, xxx, buy the fear, sell the greed.
The problem is, when every market participant adopts the same market philosophy, there is no more arbitrage in the equities market. When there is no arbitrage, there is no opportunities. No opportunities translate into an absence of price discovery. All this is exacerbated by the prevalence of financial propaganda as well as the macro events caused by The Fed.
The most pathetic will forever be the Bursa stocks. Underperformed for years since the failed bull rally in 2017. In 2020 - 2021 (aka the greatest bull run in the history), KLSE didn't gain at all almost.
The above is what I interpreted from the latest Buffett interview. Basically Warren Buffett is disappointed that he missed out the biggest bull run in 2020-2021. And that he is getting outperformed by quant funds (that use statistics and machine learning to analyse market trends) after selling Teva, Bank of America, Biogen at a loss. Whereas Charlie Munger is also angry that retail investors are making money using Robinhood. They both complain that the stock market is a casino (in another words, they are pissed off that retail investors are outperforming passive investing).
Active fund management, asset managers will see a comeback soon.
This company is hedged to the bits by AmInvestment Bank. Their sell-side equity analysts will keep writing bearish reports on the stock, insiders keep collecting, retail investors keep dumping.
Why in the hell are they hedging against TSH Resources? What is there to hedge? Crude palm oil prices still consolidating each day, Indonesia export bans minimal and temporary effect on company earnings, the macro environment is conducive for secular growth (all plantation stocks).
The answer is: These fund managers are just pissed off like Warren Buffett. Retail investors cannot win. Only they can win. All the news such as Palm Oil demand destruction, Ukraine war coming to an end destroying demand, Indonesia CPO policies, Jokowi election ratings, Plantation Corporate Earnings, Climate Risks (El-Nino, blahblahblah), Reversion to the Mean in CPO futures) All except ESG issues (forced labour) are lies and manipulative statements.
Calvin and friends Chun Chun bought Thplant at 47 sen, Bplant at Rm57 sen and Jtiasa at 60 sen and already see 100% profit from all three still holding tightly
I am not talking about you Calvin. Like I said, I respect your analysis and research. I read them and past it to several other analysts and they love it.
There is no reason to bet against TSH. This stock should be trading at 2$ (RM8). Any model would suggest triple digits upside, yet market makers still have the audacity to bet against.
TSH making consistent net profit for the past years:- 2017 $97.3mil 2018 $40.4mil 2019 $44.2mil 2020 $79.4mil 2021 $169.4mil 2022 [$200.0mil above forecast] TSH has solid foundation and it's a Super Palm Oil Growth Stock! Grab TSH shares as maximum as possible because TSH is on up-trend to historical price level. Price correction is temporary & normal. Only 5-10% retail investors can win the market share battlefield, the rest 90% buy & sell short term lost most of the money.
Nothing impossible in Palm Oil Super-Bull-Run 2022-2023 with unprecedented historical & sustain high CPO. Most palm oil stocks are severely undervalued. Market will chase palm oil stocks especially TSH to historical high level that we never see before...
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
wallstreetrookie
9,784 posts
Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2022-05-05 22:49 | Report Abuse
Be careful of what you wish for buddy