Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-06 21:21 | Report Abuse

If this news is True, I mean genuinely from a trusted source then it's one heck of a comeback for Armada and the investing community. Bravo

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-06 21:32 | Report Abuse

Bon, I looked at the chat and matched your postings here just now. The only question is how to verify the authenticity of those statements

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-06 21:35 | Report Abuse

From there they even mentioned BA didn't seemed to care less about the transformer outage and took the leeway to go ahead with the Q3 periodic maintenance instead. How ironic. And then best of all the chat room community question all the IB analysts where on earth did they derive the 6 months outage. Interesting to see how the Mr market responds to this news

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-06 21:41 | Report Abuse

Thanks Bon for the Lead, at least for now.Thank you.

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-06 21:42 | Report Abuse

i3lurker, Roger that one.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-06 21:46 | Report Abuse

Old man finally you said something positive. I fully agreed with you.

Why not you try your luck in Sapura Energy also? RO extended for another 9 months. Think about it.

Posted by i3lurker > 9 minutes ago | Report Abuse

sometimes in life, you need to take a considered bet.
if it turns against you then ... so be it, but its a considered thing, better than buying lottery ticket.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-06 21:50 | Report Abuse

You said considered bet right. Considered bet is not playing big or small, need to have facts that supporting the decision made.

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-06 21:53 | Report Abuse

Nevertheless All are being resourceful albeit different stand point and POV. Pros and Cons well noted. Cheers

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-06 22:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-06-06 22:17 | Report Abuse

You know when you buy OEM motor local companies can do the rewinding for far cheaper and it is not a complex job

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-06 22:24 | Report Abuse

It shut down on the 30th May . It is being restarted at end of this week, say Sunday 11th June -

That's No production for 12 days. - Not bloody 6 months ! ! !

Know I understand it will not likely be running production at 100% from day 1 . Another excerpts.

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-06 22:25 | Report Abuse

Now the question is how long will the brought forward maintenance take before phased production again

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-06 22:32 | Report Abuse

Right from the start it was merely HV transformers failures or blown out and hence the production outage. Nothing tangible damage to assets class and compromised in asset safety and well being. Dream Big Tomorrow

Posted by Sslee > 2023-06-06 22:50 | Report Abuse

A tranformer is used to step down electricity from 11 KV or higher KV to 415V.

Thro' motor control center a 3 phase 415V electricity current is feed into stator of the motor and the induced current will cause the rotor to rotate at 3000 or 1500 rpm.

The motor rotor is couple to the drive shaft of a pump and rotate the pump impeller inside the pump casing. The rotating impeller will sucked in the liquid from pump suction and exit the impeller at high velocity then upon exiting the pump casing discharge the velocity head is converted to pressure head. The pressure head will then force the liquid flow along the discharge piping to the intend destination.

Motor and pump are very common items use to transfer liquid from one place to another place along the piping. And normally important pump will have a hot stanby complete pump with motor and many pump spare parts and motor on cold stanby.

Posted by Sslee > 2023-06-06 23:01 | Report Abuse

At the MCC trip amp will be set that will auto cut off the electricity supply if the amp is too high (above safe operating limit).

Running at perlong high amp will cause the motor stator wiring insulation melt and short circuit and burn the stator wiring.

High amp normally cause by pump impeller overload (too heavy due to sudden change in liquid viscosity or density or addition load (bolt and net) jammed at impeller

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-06 23:30 | Report Abuse

Find out root cause of the transformer overloaded is more important than fixing the transformer.

Posted by chonghai > 2023-06-06 23:34 | Report Abuse

Recovering a transformer is not that difficult. If it is just short, replacing primary and secondary coil would settle.
Identifying the root cause if there is an over current, might be more tricky. If over current is due to something mechanical, then the situation might be even more complicated. This might be why Armada do not want to specify the amount of downtime. 20% drop in market cap due to an incident is just too much.

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-06-06 23:41 | Report Abuse

EnQuest share price hasn’t dropped much which to me is a surprise unless someone collecting money for elections

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-07 00:18 | Report Abuse

EnQuest share price closed -1.2%. Armada share price closed -23.6%.

Malaysia investors are manipulating by IB.

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-06-07 00:56 | Report Abuse

Just to give you an idea, when I worked as a supervisor of a utility plant, an operator destroyed the transformer that was tied to transfer switch between normal power supply and emergency power. He did it by flipping switch on transfer station on and off a few times rapidly. Like a kid playing with a lightbulb. (The guy thought the power was not transferring quickly enough, so he re-engaged.) 'On and off' till it burned out. That is another way to destroy an equipment quickly. How things happen in reality.

The new transformer and switch set was 50 thousand dollars. That was 20 years ago. But still, estimate by the IB that cost of repair transformer on AK is 50 million is 1000 times to high.

Posted by drsoo1 > 2023-06-07 01:31 | Report Abuse

There is no guarantee after the transformer is fixed other components both (mechanical and electrical) in the system would function normally. What if some of the sub-sea components like the pump won't function or cables open/short circuited or pipe leak etc?

Posted by drsoo1 > 2023-06-07 01:36 | Report Abuse

If sub-sea repair work is involve, 6 months down time is reasonable

Posted by drsoo1 > 2023-06-07 01:48 | Report Abuse

However, I suspect the transformer failure is unlikely caused by over loading / over current situation - could be a case of the failure of the transformer dielectric oil / material due to maintenance oversight? In which case repair should be shorter than 6 months.

Posted by BILLC > 2023-06-07 02:12 | Report Abuse

Another serba tak dinamik in the making,,,,,

Posted by KimSua > 2023-06-07 07:08 | Report Abuse

The shorts will have a field day and will not be only be a one day event. Better to allow the technical to stabilize before going in. Usually things are worst then is reported. Those who worked in the maintenance field will understand how reports are simplified to ease reporting. Need to figure out will Enquest demand for compensation if it will be 3-6 months of downtime. Will there be a settlement agreement of many more millions ? Risk vs reward.

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-07 07:29 | Report Abuse

How often do you get a "Black Swan" event that comes with Huge Discounts. Halo, it's not the irreversible and permanent assets damage beyond repair. The BA market cap is really really insanely low. Will keep adding into vault.

Posted by nicky > 2023-06-07 07:31 | Report Abuse

Errr,,, this page only can show 50 messages ? i can't view those previous messages before these 50 messages ??

Posted by KML889 > 2023-06-07 07:31 | Report Abuse

Hopefully we will get more clarity and more precise timeline for unit restart from BA soon

Posted by dompeilee > 2023-06-07 07:37 | Report Abuse

5.9 BILLION tickets in the market...even discounting the old man's holdings, it's still well over 3 billion. Easy to plunge not easy to rise with this kind of event, in this kinda half dead market.

Posted by value_seeker > 2023-06-07 07:45 | Report Abuse

The message got previous page. Look for bottom of the dialogue or top of the dialogue.

Posted by Sslee > 2023-06-07 07:48 | Report Abuse

Top 5 causes of transformer power quality problems

Loose connections — Long term vibration can loosen connections in electrical transformers. Going unchecked results in excessive buzzing and overheating.

Excessive harmonics — A higher temperature on a neutral termination may indicate the presence of harmonics. Per IEEE 519, the total harmonic distortion for voltage should be less than 5% for systems below 69 kV. The total demand distortion for current should also be less than 5% depending on the size of the source in relation to the load. Excessive harmonics on the third or fifth level often point to interference from electronic loads

Unbalance — When you compare temperatures of terminations and coils using a thermal imager, a higher temperature on one phase may indicate unbalance. When troubleshooting with a power quality analyzer, compare the current on each phase, noting that the maximum voltage on balance is generally 2%. That means the voltage on any one phase should not vary by more than 2% of the average of the three phases. The most common cause of unbalance is a change in load configuration, so quickly map out your overall equipment distribution system.

Overloading — If the temperatures are substantially higher than expected and the unit is not exposed to direct sunlight, then there’s most likely a problem with overloading and cooling. Compare kVA, voltage and current against the transformer’s nameplate. If the power consumption is greater than information listed on the nameplate, there’s likely an overload.

Cooling issues — Culprits are often cooling oil circuit blockages or failed cooling fans.

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2023-06-07 08:03 | Report Abuse

These kinds of shits appear rather easily triggered....

Would expect the FPSO and the machineries and whatnot onboard are insured? No??

Posted by KimSua > 2023-06-07 08:36 | Report Abuse

>6 mil shares shorted yesterday. will not stop at one day

Posted by Sslee > 2023-06-07 08:37 | Report Abuse

Good morning i3lurker,
Can you provide me the link to CGS-CIMB report.
I will write and urgent email to Amarda IR with CC to SC and Bursa to complaint is the CGS-CIMB accuracy of their information or misinformation?

CGS-CIMB Securities research estimates a similar downtime. It has included a loss of six months of BBC cash receipts, finance lease income and US$50 million (RM230 million) of repair and maintenance costs into the group’s profit and loss forecast

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-07 08:55 | Report Abuse

Hahaha estimate only ma. Analyst`s boss already made millions from his report.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-07 08:59 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2023-06-07 09:00 | Report Abuse

Report said it took 6 months to repair the malfunction transformer....true or false?

Any expert here?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-07 09:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-07 09:01 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-07 09:04 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-07 09:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-07 09:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MM78 > 2023-06-07 09:12 | Report Abuse

I added Armada this morning @ 48 sens . Thanks to those who contribute much insights on how the FPSO works and technical explanation of possible technical scenarios of the break downs. I am still convinced of the strong fundamentals of Armada and this incident is not going to sink the whole operations but part and parcel of oil and gas sector risks, one has to stomach it from time to time. Armada valuations is too low for its net operation cash flow for now at least,

Posted by KoiFish > 2023-06-07 09:16 | Report Abuse

Done adding too, safe flight

Posted by nicky > 2023-06-07 09:17 | Report Abuse

Looks quiet... still lack of volume to support the price

Posted by Sslee > 2023-06-07 09:17 | Report Abuse

Dear IR,
ir@bumiarmada.com
enquiry@bumiarmada.com

I would like to draw your urgent attention to your bursa announcement and the CGS CIMB and Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) arbitrary estimate of a six-month downtime. Please rebut or confirm the IB wild/irresponsible reporting.

Dear SC and Bursa,

Please investigate are CGS CIMB and Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) arbitrary estimates of a six-month downtime bordering on wild/irresponsible reporting and violated SC rule and regulation on market manipulation?

Bumi Armada Berhad ("Bumi Armada") wishes to announce that, following a prolonged period of top quartile production and operational performance, production from the Armada Kraken FPSO ("Kraken FPSO") was recently shut-in following the failure of critical hydraulic submersible pump (HSP) transformers. The Kraken FPSO is owned by Bumi Armada’s wholly owned subsidiary, Armada Kraken Pte Ltd ("AKPL") and is deployed at the Kraken Field under a bareboat charter contract ("BBC").

AKPL, together with EnQuest (the field operator), planned and executed a restart of the facility but the attempted remediation programme was unsuccessful, and the Kraken FPSO remains shut-in.

AKPL is working with EnQuest to assess alternative technical solutions, with the aim to return to production, on a phased basis, in the coming weeks. In the meantime, key maintenance activities, originally scheduled for execution within two periods of single train operations in the third quarter of the year, are being executed during the period of shut-in. These activities are intended to negate the requirement for any further planned outages in 2023.

The current shut-in and future reduced level of production, means that BBC revenue earned by AKPL will be reduced. Given the current uncertainties, the financial impact of this incident cannot be reliably estimated at this point, but is expected to be material for Bumi Armada.

Further updates will be made from time to time when there are material developments.

This announcement is dated 2 June 2023.

I quote the below CGS CIMB and Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB):
https://klse1.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/67710.jsp

CGS CIMB noted that FPSOs are typically required to achieve a minimum annual operational uptime of circa 95%, failing which the FPSO charterer does not pay the full bareboat charter contract (BBC).

“While FPSO Kraken received final acceptance from EnQuest in June 2017, Bumi Armada was paid just 70%-80% of the full BBC rate for failing to meet its uptime threshold until 1Q(20)20, when that threshold was achieved. For the past three years, the FPSO Kraken had been performing well, until the recent incident with the HSP (hydraulic submersible pump) transformer.”

Without guidance from either Bumi Armada or EnQuest, CGS CIMB has included a loss of six months of BBC cash receipts in 2H2023F, a loss of six months of finance lease income in the FY2023 profit and loss statement (P&L), and US$50 million of repair and maintenance costs borne solely by Bumi Armada and charged into its FY2023F P&L.

As such, the research firm lowered its FY2023 core net profit by 47%, implying the reduction in SOP valuation of Bumi Armada from 87 sen to 79 sen from the three adjustments above, and a lower TP of 69 sen.

Meanwhile, Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research estimates that the Kraken FPSO has a daily charter rate of approximately USD480k/day (or USD175m/year), which accounts for some 35% of the group’s revenue contribution in FY2022.

“We are negative on this development. While we acknowledge that we do not have clarity of Kraken’s shut-in timeline yet, we decide to make an arbitrary estimate of a six-month downtime for the said FPSO,” it added.

That said, the research house trimmed its FY2023 net profit forecast by 38%, while leaving FY2024-FY2025 earnings estimates unchanged

Thank you

Best Regards
Lee Soon Sheng

Posted by sense maker > 2023-06-07 09:18 | Report Abuse

Hope it drops to 45sen. Boleh sapu

Posted by Mikecyc > 2023-06-07 09:19 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-07 09:24 | Report Abuse

Hahaha SSLEE already in Armada boat. Hello welcome!👋

Posted by Russel > 2023-06-07 09:26 | Report Abuse

Some buying anticipated strong bounced back, some buying seeing value due to the discounted price...lol