Posted by TimCoke > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

ya, i feel the same, especially during this timing

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Thirai, that's absolutely true. The focus 1 to 2 years ago was to get the ship in order. That's been achieved. What's deflated my expectations on Bumi Armada is that they're simply uncompetitive in getting new contracts (at least on the FPSO side of things). There has been much talk about going into gas and carbon capture solutions for the past 2 years, thus far management has failed to deliver.

Two years ago, the share price was hovering at the 30 to 40 sen range. It was not necessary for the company to win new contracts for the share price to move up. This has ended up being true.

Now for the next leg up, there need to be some wins. Bumi Armada was frontrunner for the Cameia FPSO job, they hired a full project team of expensive workers in anticipation, but turns out they couldn't eventually deliver at the price they'd bid at. Some RM50mil to RM100mil has been "wasted" on gas and carbon FEEDs which might well amount to nothing.

Again, at these price points, Bumi Armada is still worth considering. But short of new wins, the long-run ceiling price of the stock will be in the 70 sen range.

Posted by Ninja _07 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Falling down...

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

As always, for today's quarterly result, hope for the best but prepare/expect the worst. "Normal" profits should be in the range of RM220mil to RM260mil. Might even overshoot the top end slightly as Q1 forex was favourable and we should be getting some contribution from Armada Sterling V, as well as lower depreciation expenses post kitchen sinking in Q4 2023. Just pray and hope there are no nasty surprises in there.

Posted by 696988 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Why normal profit should be 220 mil to 260 mil? From 2021 to 2023 Their qtr profit range is around 150m to 210mil only, even before covid-19 their most of the qtr is below 160m. Think the positive way, these few years they reduced their debt a lot, can be considered a good starting.

Posted by rohank71 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

I still believe the Operating Profit ie PBT may be closer to 350 to 400M.

Posted by marlboroman2 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Should be a tall green candlestick (the very least if not for anything else, to play catch up to the rest of the market counters?)

Posted by rohank71 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

last Q it was already 350M before the huge depreciation took it to negative. with no surprises we can expect the same at worst case

Posted by TimCoke > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

target 0.685

Posted by ckwee168 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Result out with a spot-on operating profit very close to RM350 million, and EPS coming in at 4 cents .. let's see how the share price will respond later ..

Posted by rohank71 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

sorry I over estimated PBT vs Operating Profit...

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Net profit is at RM240mil. The RM263mil includes RM23mil profit attributable to those who are not shareholders of the company (i.e. shareholders of non-100% held subsidiaries).

This looks like a clean RM240mil profit with minimal adjustments needed.

a. RM0.9mil impairment written back
b. RM10.2mil unrealised FX loss

The share of results of JV is heavily being understated due to losses from Armada Sterling V wiping off profits from other JV operations. There might be a "hidden" profit of RM30mil to RM50mil per quarter here once they sort out Armada Sterling V.

Keep in mind that this is going to be the "best year ever". We should hit RM1bil in net profit this year, assuming no surprises. But note that next year onwards, profits will only get lower as Kraken lease enters the option period, and then Armada Sterling III lease enters option period in 2027. We are still pending news of further renewal for Armada Sterling II lease which is now in the first option year, while Armada TGT contract is due to expire in Q4 2024.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

On 16 January 2024, Armada Upstream Investment B.V. (“AUIBV”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, incorporated Armada Akia Holdings B.V and Armada Talu Holdings B.V. (“ATHBV”) to participate in, manage and supervise businesses and companies involved in the Akia Work Area and other potential new ventures in Indonesia.

On 17 January 2024, AUIBV incorporated Armada Kojo Holdings B.V. to participate in, manage and supervise businesses and companies involved in other potential new ventures in Indonesia.

On 17 January 2024, ATHBV incorporated Armada Talu B.V. to undertake potential upstream exploration and production projects in Indonesia.

On 18 January 2024, Armada Etan Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company incorporated Armada Kojo B.V. to undertake upstream exploration and production projects in Indonesia.

Posted by bullrun168 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

consolidated results for the financial period ended 31 Mar 2024
Bumi Armada Berhad

1) Revenue. 658,538,000
2) Profit/(loss) 270,231,000
before tax
3) Profit/(loss) 263,108,000
for the period
5) Basic earnings/(loss) 4.06
per share (Subunit)
7) Net assets. 1.01
per share (NTA)

Date Announced: 30-5-2024

Posted by bullrun168 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Walaoeh, super outstanding QR for Armada just come out only fresh fresh…
Oh my goodness, an incredicle,unbelieveable superb big profits of 270 million ringgit !

Like that once market opened on 2.30pm, Armada going to limit up to closed at 0.865 (+0.30)(+53.1 %) already liao lah !

Heng ah, Ong ah, Huat ah !

Posted by TimCoke > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

BA about to make EV battery, please be noted

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Core net profit is around RM138.5mil after accounting for RM0.9mil reversal in bad debts and RM0.7mil insurance claim.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

The stock is trading at a 3.5x P/E ratio. Even if this is a sunset company, the cash generation potential is huge. It's still undervalued by 20-30%.

Now if the company can somehow secure contracts, only the sky is the limit.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

This quarter, they only repaid RM122mil in borrowings as most of the borrowings have been either repaid or restructured to a longer-term. At the same time, their cash pile has swelled by RM197mil.

Logic dictates that if they had nothing coming up, they should've just repaid the term debt that was restructured last year, as the cash pile is earning significantly less than the interest on the debt. However, they didn't do that - do they know that they will be needing cash for certain project(s) real soon and are building up their warchest accordingly? After all, CFO Luke is a rather capable man.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

I'm looking forward to hearing CFO Luke later. Watch out for his pronunciation of "millions", which he pronounces as "minions".

And also good guy Gary. Not the greedy one, but the safety guy. Very nice chap.

Posted by TimCoke > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Okay, BA may not directly produce EV batteries, but it will provide the core material for them, mayb,

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

We are pursuing new opportunities in targeted markets. We will continue to focus on the following;

• Safety and health of all employees, partners and assets;
• Improve the operational performance of our vessels;
• Maintain and further develop effective relationships with our clients and partners;
• Secure new projects in core regions and with our preferred partners;
• Building our energy transition pathway towards achieving net zero goal by 2050 or earlier, by focusing on carbon emission reduction and carbon injection technologies and solutions including the Bluestreak joint venture; and
• Explore complementary business opportunities in the upstream sector.

-----------

Same sh!# as before!

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

The Group holds a 30% interest in associates involved in the 98/2 Project. Armada Sterling V FPSO is currently in the progress of performing the necessary tests to achieve final acceptance which is required for the vessel charter to commence. During this start-up phase, the associates are entitled to certain revenue, but the charterer has withheld certain amounts from payments pending ongoing discussions regarding this and additional outstanding claims that are being worked on to achieve resolution.

------------

We are still waiting for first gas, let alone final acceptance. Might still take a while.

Posted by TimCoke > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Garyzai and his team are not doing nothing, and I do not think they are as stxxxxx and lazy as people think. An energy company will always be an energy company, not necessarily confined to oil and gas; it can encompass other sectors, and they might be correct, good luck

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

"Operations segment increased mainly due to higher revenue from Armada Olombendo FPSO resulting from resolution of outstanding issues with the charterer which includes escalation of the operating fee pursuant to the charter agreement."

--------------------

It appears that the O&M contract with Eni has been revised higher, presumably due to escalating costs in the past couple of years.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

In any case, this is Bumi Armada's best ever reported quarterly net profit. Congrats to those who've been in for the long haul!

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Armada TGT FPSO - The Group is in discussion with the charterer for extension beyond Nov 2024.

-----------

Finally, official acknowledgement that discussions are ongoing to extend the charter period.

Posted by vespa > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

About its shortest media release in its recent past, maybe something good afoot at
the AGM.

Posted by OrlandoOilWeb3AI > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

So good so good so good


Cannot even go beyond 0.60

Coz there is a company by the name YINSON

Armana the second fiddle

Posted by vespa > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Declining future free cashflows requires another job to bump up valuation or alternatively AK/UT and co offer to take it private at a premium as these guys play it close to their chest. Never discount that.

Posted by Robert Waters > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

I bought some more in the panic before the anouncement. It seems that we have a lot of investors NOT reading the forum here. Good earnings were expected.
Who were the selling people ... maybe some big funds avoiding any risk and willing to take small loss. I do not think that we have enough small investors to move price down.
Now they are repurchasing.
I expect another increase in price tomorrow, once the upgrades come in.

So there is still chance to load up, if you want fast profit.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Point to note, they are borrowing USD400mil (RM1.85bil) to repay the existing Sukuk facililty of RM1.5bil.

1. Why is the new borrowing more than the old borrowing? Why does Bumi Armada need to borrow MORE cash?
2. Usually lenders want the borrowings backed by some project. What are they backing this with?

Posted by 1pingpong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

post so much info here - suda beli or not? ha? at least pun 100k ma yea.

Posted by 1pingpong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

buy in now, before later regret when it goes above 0.60

Posted by rohank71 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

tomorrow after analyst reports are out will break the 60 sen

Posted by rohank71 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

58 has always been a support and resistance... need to charge past that.

Posted by 1pingpong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

0.65 sure can reach

Posted by marlboroman2 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Not forgetting old Brent at 83.5 translates to TP of the same value.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Anybody attended the AGM? I missed the Q&A.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

One big nugget is that Armada Sterling V acceptance is expected in June 2024.

Discussions are ongoing to extend Sterling II, TGT and Kraken FPSO contracts.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

$2bil worth of tenders in the Caspian Sea for the two subsea construction vessels.

Posted by TimCoke > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Could be the new transitioning project, interesting.
---------

nikicheong

Point to note, they are borrowing USD400mil (RM1.85bil) to repay the existing Sukuk facililty of RM1.5bil.

1. Why is the new borrowing more than the old borrowing? Why does Bumi Armada need to borrow MORE cash?
2. Usually lenders want the borrowings backed by some project. What are they backing this with?

Posted by MM78 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

I was on the verge of cutting down my holding of Armada shares pending the release of the latest quarter and the AGM. Luke's answer to the question in AGM on intentionally hold back paying down the debt but build up the cash hints of something is up soon and his affirmation of no plan for right issues is also assuring. It is good to know Sterling V full acceptance is around June this year. Good Q 1 2024 results , so I hold back selling a big potion of Armada shares holding for now though I was pessimistic as well lately of Armada. Armada shares high traded volume today with 2 Sens rise seems encouraging as well. I wonder if Armada Kraken is fully amortized by the end of its fixed contract and before the starts of the optional extension contract ? Anyone has any idea ?

Posted by MM78 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Further thinking about Gary's comment that the management decided not to take on an FPSO project as the risk / reward valuations is not in favor of Armada is something worth taking note of. If it is true, it may mean Armada is selective in their look out for better contract instead just for the sake of getting business at low margin high risk. Sapura Energy fell into big black hole and ended up bankrupt as the previous MD was taking on too much projects at low margins during the oil and gas boom period. I am still feeling the pain of my biggest loss cutting process a few years ago.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@MM78 care sharing more about the question you're referring to from the AGM on building the cash pile instead of paring down debt. I missed it, only heard the question being read but not the answer.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Does anyone have any screenshots or recording from the AGM? I also missed some of the written questions from MSWG and shareholders (including myself)

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@MM78 no the Armada Kraken is not fully amortized at the end of the firm charter. If I recall correctly, they showed the amortization schedule in the previous quarter and it was previously on a fixed line basis to the end of the option charter period. They made some adjustments which resulted in the massive impairment in Q4 2023, but the vessel will still only be fully amortized in 2042.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Gary spoke about Kojo field, explaining that Bumi Armada has "first refusal" and have enquiries from potential partners on the field development. Very brief, nothing much more to it. He didn't speak about the Talu field, but I believe it is also in Indonesia.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Some information on Kojo joint study.

https://www.ruangenergi.com/ketika-lavender-dan-kojo-di-joint-study-kan-lemigas/

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

CFO Luke also spoke about the renegotiated O&M contract with Eni in Angola, and mentioned a positive contribution of RM60mil to Q1 2024 revenue. However, I am unsure if this is one-off in nature or recurring every quarter moving forward.