Posted by nikicheong > 2024-06-04 13:56 | Report Abuse

"This forum is beginning to feel like a university study group doing a thesis on BAB."

HAHA. Isn't that a good thing though?

Posted by marlboroman2 > 2024-06-04 15:15 | Report Abuse

Don't get me wrong Niki, I absolutely love reading the constructive arguments and points put forth by many in here. In my view, this is still a good value company despite the slowness of it all.

Posted by Jonathan168138 > 2024-06-04 21:48 | Report Abuse

Indian changing government, any impact to Armada project with ONCG India. 🤔

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/6/4/india-election-results-live-news-modi-eyes-historic-third-term-as-pm

Posted by Jonathan168138 > 2024-06-04 21:49 | Report Abuse

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd
NSE: ONGC
OverviewCompareFinancials
238.00 INR −46.10 (16.23%)today
4 Jun, 3:30 pm GMT+5:30 • Disclaimer

Posted by Jonathan168138 > 2024-06-04 21:53 | Report Abuse

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/indian-shares-fall-2-vote-count-begins-2024-06-04/

Posted by Macgyver111 > 2024-06-04 22:17 | Report Abuse

Brent moving downward..usd 76/barrel.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-06-05 00:55 | Report Abuse

Irrelevant Jonathan

Posted by raymondroy > 2024-06-05 02:59 | Report Abuse

amazing qtr financials, eps of 4.06, T4Q PER of just 3.5x, and cash generated from operations at 271m, total borrowings reduced from 5b to 4.3b over a year...... so why the low valuation? Similar is ween at WASCO and even worse at Yinson..... so whats with O&G counters nowadays? Brent teetering at 80, in my work we have forecast it to range between 80 and 86 for the year. So what will it take for market to better accept bumi? earth to bumi..... do u read :-)

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-06-05 09:33 | Report Abuse

Good wrap up. Any new contracts worth mentioning for our favorite counter in sight ?
PS
I am an Yinson switcher. Boy it must be even more frustrating for longs there. All going well, yet the price down over a few years. Now, that is a real downer.
My guess is that reality trumps expectations.

Posted by Sslee > 2024-06-05 09:52 | Report Abuse

O&G is a dirty word and most O&G companies PE is in low single digit.
People move away from O&G to be politically right and some even think a day will come when Science can solve the world energy problem without oil.

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-06-05 12:23 | Report Abuse

Yes Sslee. Agree. As I work in O&G I have several counters that do not well. Some on the verge of delisting.
I can assure everyone that the switch to green energy is nothing new. 40 years ago similar stories were told. I expect us to be rewarded for taking the risk.

Posted by jacintateh > 2024-06-05 17:23 | Report Abuse

very bad day

Posted by Jeffrey > 2024-06-05 19:15 | Report Abuse

Yinson has the high debts and negative cash flow problem. Market not interested because risk is very high.

Armada eating existing projects, no new project meaning no catalyst of growth.

This two abang adik got different problems but same share price performance. Overall Armada still better than Yinson in term of share price performance.

Look at Dayang, Uzma, Wasco, Velesto already broken multiple years high.

Posted by 1pingpong > 2024-06-07 09:21 | Report Abuse

Morning all. Hope you all eating lobster as your breakfast. 😃

Posted by jacintateh > 2024-06-07 10:04 | Report Abuse

From Philip Capital:- Bumi Armada (BAB MK) Strong start to the year MALAYSIA | OIL AND GAS | RESULT Core net profit of RM254m (+23% YoY) above expectations Bumi Armada (BAB) recorded a higher 1Q24 revenue of RM634m (+17% YoY), driven by higher FPSO Olombendo contributions following the resolution of the daily operating fee issue with the charterer which led to an upward revision of its O&M rates. All of its FPSOs continue to operate at a high 99–100% uptime. EBITDA margin rose 9ppts YoY to 42% as a result of the stronger operating leverage. Net gearing level continues to be on a downward trend, declining by 13% QoQ to 0.56x on the back of its strong cash flow generation. Overall, 1Q24 core net profit of RM254m (+23% YoY) was above our and consensus expectations on better-than-expected FPSO Olombendo contributions from O&M rates revision. FPSO TGT-1 and Kraken stand good chance for extension FPSO Sterling V achieved first oil in Jan24 and completed its first crude oil offload in Mar24. It is currently awaiting final acceptance from its client, ONGC, with testing scheduled to commence in Jun24. FPSO TGT-1’s firm charter period is set to expire in Nov24. We see a strong likelihood of a contract extension, as the field operator, Pharos Energy, has announced plans to drill 2 additional wells in the TGT field. Moreover, discussions are ongoing for extending the PSC agreement, which is expiring in Nov26. Similarly, for FPSO Kraken, whose firm charter is set to expire in Mar25, we are confident that an extension is already in the bag as BAB has been in discussion with the charterer, EnQuest, to find solutions to reduce the vessel's greenhouse gas emissions and has begun some engineering work on the FPSO. Maintain BUY with RM0.80 target price We make no changes to our earnings forecast and reiterate our BUY rating with the DCFderived target price unchanged at RM0.80, which implies a 7x forward 2025E PE. Key risks to our BUY call include unforeseen operational delays in existing FPSOs, a delay in securing final acceptance for Sterling V, and a sharp decline in the global oil price affecting global capex spending.

Posted by TimCoke > 2024-06-07 10:28 | Report Abuse

Furthermore, good news coming soon, may boost a little bit

Posted by marlboroman2 > 2024-06-07 12:07 | Report Abuse

Yinson at 1 year's price low and falling, I wonder if BAB is attempting the same feat 🤦‍♂️

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-06-08 01:07 | Report Abuse

Pharos Energy has confirmed that FPSO extension will be secured before drilling commences for the 2 new wells. Previously they told me that it would be signed by mid May 2024.

It's still coming, and probably very soon. I expect the announcement to come within the next 3 months.

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-06-09 21:49 | Report Abuse

Tq Niki for the update.

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-06-10 08:38 | Report Abuse

We can expect 2 positives news soon. one from ASV and the other TGT. Hope it comes out by end of the month and see the price above 60 again.

Posted by TimCoke > 2024-06-10 15:21 | Report Abuse

yes

Posted by bullrun168 > 2024-06-11 07:12 | Report Abuse

Wow, oil price was spike up like mad !
Brent closed at=>
$81.63 +$2.01 +2.52 %

Like that today Armada will be limit up already to closed at =>
0.86 (+0.30) (+53.6 %) !

Heng ah, Ong ah, Huat ah !

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-06-11 09:40 | Report Abuse

Anybody could please share CGS ratings in pdf ?
Raymond Yap is the best analyst.
It was known as CIMB before.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-06-11 10:15 | Report Abuse

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file=90a6ff1b-5a9a-48fd-8719-04ce19936385

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-06-11 11:34 | Report Abuse

Thank you, very much.

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-06-11 14:00 | Report Abuse

Recent research report on ONGC that includes commentary on the 98/2 project.

https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2024/06/20240605095301_ONGC_05062024_Motilal-Oswal.pdf

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-06-11 14:56 | Report Abuse

So they expect full start up next reporting period, full oil production by the end of the year.
______________
Gas production from the KG-98/2 asset, which will begin in 3QFY25, is expected to ramp up to 10mmscmd by FY25 end, while oil production could ramp up to 45,000bopd by 4QFY25.

Posted by TimCoke > 2024-06-11 15:10 | Report Abuse

Absolutely

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2024-06-11 16:29 | Report Abuse

20K by Dec 2024 and 45K by March 2025

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2024-06-11 16:30 | Report Abuse

Their FYE in March

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-06-12 00:11 | Report Abuse

Is someone selling big way? every morning BA price tries to wake up but by 10am it will be sold down. anyone has insight of whats happening.

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-06-12 00:41 | Report Abuse

Not me. In fact I bought some more of it for a (hopefully) fast trade.

Posted by marlboroman2 > 2024-06-12 10:14 | Report Abuse

Like clockwork, by 10am the smallish selldown exercise begins and then tapers off

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-06-12 10:36 | Report Abuse

I noticed too. Put a small order at 0.555 for 30 days. This price seems to be the rock bottom support. To be sold after the news. Unfortunately, will prevent price to go up if many think similar.

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-06-12 11:57 | Report Abuse

some clown has unloading BIG time since late April when it broke the 58 sen. only reprive was when the Q1 resukts was announced... even then selling was still heavy. are we missing out something

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-06-12 12:06 | Report Abuse

I know two project-related personnel (buyer and engineer) who have been re-designated to support roles (asset integrity and compliance). I also see a number of people who are linked to the "green energy" ventures such as FSIU and FCSIU looking for new roles.

As such, one could deduce that Bumi Armada really may not have much, if at all anything, in the pipelines.

The Armada Sterling V FPSO should achieve full acceptance in the coming weeks. They are actively tendering for their SC vessels in the Caspian sea. They are working on tie-back for the Bressey field to the Kraken. They will secure license extensions for TGT and Kraken FPSOs, maybe Sterling II FPSO as well. They are working on progressing the Akia upstream project. Other than this, there's nothing concrete coming out from Bumi Armada. The Bluestreak CO2 venture is going nowhere.

Again, things may change overnight if they win a contract. But nothing for now.

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-06-12 12:09 | Report Abuse

Wow, I put order at 0.555 expecting it to be filled in a month, but I got the shares within two hours. VERY, VERY heavy selling as of now. Price went below my bid and instead of waiting, there is now selling at this price.
This is more than just a market flactuation.

Posted by TimCoke > 2024-06-12 13:09 | Report Abuse

0.56 good buy

Posted by vespa > 2024-06-12 14:00 | Report Abuse

I sold out the balance yesterday...Armada to me was like the curate's egg

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-06-12 14:16 | Report Abuse

Cannot blame sellers for getting out of this counter. I blame management for NOT securing a single project in years.
_____________________________________________________
some clown has unloading BIG time since late April when it broke the 58 sen. only reprive was when the Q1 resukts was announced... even then selling was still heavy. are we missing out something

Posted by vespa > 2024-06-12 15:29 | Report Abuse

spot on Mr Waters...recall Mike Lim an avid Armada supporter , he got out at about these prices and drove into YTL Power early this year at about RM 2.30 ( if my memory serves me right). Armada has done squat since then. Eventually it would move up I suppose

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-06-12 17:42 | Report Abuse

I remember Mike Lim (Kim). He really tried his best to put a positive spin on things, but eventually he could not do it any more. Neither could you. I also got some other shares on the side and there seem to be more upside elsewhere. The final nail in the coffin will be the leaving of Nick Cheong.
Not that the management types care. They seem to like it to take it easy.
The best solution for Armada would be to be absorbed by Yinson.
Good luck to you.

Posted by leeabraham > 2024-06-13 16:18 | Report Abuse

noticed selling heavy in 10am, 3.45-4+pm, sold 0.56. look why it underperform vs perdana, carimin, icon, velesto. regreted investing in this shit

Posted by TimCoke > 2024-06-13 16:52 | Report Abuse

I would say, you sold too early. Stay tune, good things coming ^^ 560 still a good buy

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-06-13 17:17 | Report Abuse

another thing I notice from analyst report. the NPV on discounted cashflow remains the same every quater. how can this be? NPV supposed to be increasing every quater based on discount rate. can anyone comment.

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-06-13 17:20 | Report Abuse

the firm order book is 10B so say opex 40% its 6B cash flow.
extension is also abt 10B and opex say 80% is 2B... so over the next 10 yrs BAs cash generated should be 8B less debt 3B is only balance 5B or 80 sen.. how can the NPV today is 80 sen based on most analyst report. its only 80 sen in 10 yrs.

Posted by TimCoke > 2024-06-13 17:52 | Report Abuse

lets 570 tomorrow

Posted by nikicheong > 2024-06-13 23:52 | Report Abuse

New Delhi, June 11 (IANS) Public sector upstream giant Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (NS:ONGC) will start gas production from its eastern offshore deep-water field in the Krishna-Godavari block KG-DWN-98/2 soon, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said on Tuesday after taking charge as a member of the Modi 3.0 Cabinet.

He also said that oil production will increase to 45,000 barrels per day very soon.

https://in.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ongc-to-start-gas-production-soon-from-eastern-offshore-krishnagodavari-field-hardeep-puri-4245649

Posted by Robert Waters > 2024-06-14 09:09 | Report Abuse

I like the use of word SOON in this official release of the ministry. I also prepared 3 similar phrases for use. They all mean nothing. Good to use when being pressed by a fiancee to get married. They are:

BEFORE YOU KNOW IT
FASTER THAN YOU THINK
IN NO TIME AT ALL
😅

Posted by TimCoke > 2024-06-14 13:53 | Report Abuse

45k barrels is SOON, but 40k is a guaranteed easy job