Posted by nikicheong > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Pharos Energy has confirmed that FPSO extension will be secured before drilling commences for the 2 new wells. Previously they told me that it would be signed by mid May 2024.

It's still coming, and probably very soon. I expect the announcement to come within the next 3 months.

Posted by rohank71 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Tq Niki for the update.

Posted by rohank71 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

We can expect 2 positives news soon. one from ASV and the other TGT. Hope it comes out by end of the month and see the price above 60 again.

Posted by TimCoke > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

yes

Posted by bullrun168 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Wow, oil price was spike up like mad !
Brent closed at=>
$81.63 +$2.01 +2.52 %

Like that today Armada will be limit up already to closed at =>
0.86 (+0.30) (+53.6 %) !

Heng ah, Ong ah, Huat ah !

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Anybody could please share CGS ratings in pdf ?
Raymond Yap is the best analyst.
It was known as CIMB before.

Posted by nikicheong > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file=90a6ff1b-5a9a-48fd-8719-04ce19936385

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Thank you, very much.

Posted by nikicheong > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Recent research report on ONGC that includes commentary on the 98/2 project.

https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2024/06/20240605095301_ONGC_05062024_Motilal-Oswal.pdf

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

So they expect full start up next reporting period, full oil production by the end of the year.
______________
Gas production from the KG-98/2 asset, which will begin in 3QFY25, is expected to ramp up to 10mmscmd by FY25 end, while oil production could ramp up to 45,000bopd by 4QFY25.

Posted by TimCoke > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Absolutely

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

20K by Dec 2024 and 45K by March 2025

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Their FYE in March

Posted by rohank71 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Is someone selling big way? every morning BA price tries to wake up but by 10am it will be sold down. anyone has insight of whats happening.

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Not me. In fact I bought some more of it for a (hopefully) fast trade.

Posted by marlboroman2 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Like clockwork, by 10am the smallish selldown exercise begins and then tapers off

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I noticed too. Put a small order at 0.555 for 30 days. This price seems to be the rock bottom support. To be sold after the news. Unfortunately, will prevent price to go up if many think similar.

Posted by rohank71 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

some clown has unloading BIG time since late April when it broke the 58 sen. only reprive was when the Q1 resukts was announced... even then selling was still heavy. are we missing out something

Posted by nikicheong > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I know two project-related personnel (buyer and engineer) who have been re-designated to support roles (asset integrity and compliance). I also see a number of people who are linked to the "green energy" ventures such as FSIU and FCSIU looking for new roles.

As such, one could deduce that Bumi Armada really may not have much, if at all anything, in the pipelines.

The Armada Sterling V FPSO should achieve full acceptance in the coming weeks. They are actively tendering for their SC vessels in the Caspian sea. They are working on tie-back for the Bressey field to the Kraken. They will secure license extensions for TGT and Kraken FPSOs, maybe Sterling II FPSO as well. They are working on progressing the Akia upstream project. Other than this, there's nothing concrete coming out from Bumi Armada. The Bluestreak CO2 venture is going nowhere.

Again, things may change overnight if they win a contract. But nothing for now.

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Wow, I put order at 0.555 expecting it to be filled in a month, but I got the shares within two hours. VERY, VERY heavy selling as of now. Price went below my bid and instead of waiting, there is now selling at this price.
This is more than just a market flactuation.

Posted by TimCoke > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

0.56 good buy

Posted by vespa > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I sold out the balance yesterday...Armada to me was like the curate's egg

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Cannot blame sellers for getting out of this counter. I blame management for NOT securing a single project in years.
_____________________________________________________
some clown has unloading BIG time since late April when it broke the 58 sen. only reprive was when the Q1 resukts was announced... even then selling was still heavy. are we missing out something

Posted by vespa > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

spot on Mr Waters...recall Mike Lim an avid Armada supporter , he got out at about these prices and drove into YTL Power early this year at about RM 2.30 ( if my memory serves me right). Armada has done squat since then. Eventually it would move up I suppose

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I remember Mike Lim (Kim). He really tried his best to put a positive spin on things, but eventually he could not do it any more. Neither could you. I also got some other shares on the side and there seem to be more upside elsewhere. The final nail in the coffin will be the leaving of Nick Cheong.
Not that the management types care. They seem to like it to take it easy.
The best solution for Armada would be to be absorbed by Yinson.
Good luck to you.

Posted by leeabraham > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

noticed selling heavy in 10am, 3.45-4+pm, sold 0.56. look why it underperform vs perdana, carimin, icon, velesto. regreted investing in this shit

Posted by TimCoke > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I would say, you sold too early. Stay tune, good things coming ^^ 560 still a good buy

Posted by rohank71 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

another thing I notice from analyst report. the NPV on discounted cashflow remains the same every quater. how can this be? NPV supposed to be increasing every quater based on discount rate. can anyone comment.

Posted by rohank71 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

the firm order book is 10B so say opex 40% its 6B cash flow.
extension is also abt 10B and opex say 80% is 2B... so over the next 10 yrs BAs cash generated should be 8B less debt 3B is only balance 5B or 80 sen.. how can the NPV today is 80 sen based on most analyst report. its only 80 sen in 10 yrs.

Posted by TimCoke > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

lets 570 tomorrow

Posted by nikicheong > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

New Delhi, June 11 (IANS) Public sector upstream giant Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (NS:ONGC) will start gas production from its eastern offshore deep-water field in the Krishna-Godavari block KG-DWN-98/2 soon, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said on Tuesday after taking charge as a member of the Modi 3.0 Cabinet.

He also said that oil production will increase to 45,000 barrels per day very soon.

https://in.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ongc-to-start-gas-production-soon-from-eastern-offshore-krishnagodavari-field-hardeep-puri-4245649

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I like the use of word SOON in this official release of the ministry. I also prepared 3 similar phrases for use. They all mean nothing. Good to use when being pressed by a fiancee to get married. They are:

BEFORE YOU KNOW IT
FASTER THAN YOU THINK
IN NO TIME AT ALL
😅

Posted by TimCoke > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

45k barrels is SOON, but 40k is a guaranteed easy job

Posted by ageetkumar > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Is there any new information in the following upstream article? Anybody has full access?

https://www.upstreamonline.com/rigs-and-vessels/payment-dispute-lingers-for-largest-fpso-operating-in-india/2-1-1660662

Posted by nikicheong > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Tim, they've been stuck at 12k bopd since January.

Posted by Macgyver111 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I remember last year I bought Armada around average 0.53 and disposed with good profit after it break 0.60. Today I open, our friend Armada still trading @ 0.55 kah...adoi!!
Perdana lagi sempoi...touched 0.40 ready. Velesto start giving dividend. Apa sdh jadi sama ni Armada 😴😪

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Shareholders in Armada are trapped. Kena trap. There is always bad surprise, like broken pump at Kraken, 500 mln impairment on future cash flow or no new project at all, despite being selected as preferred bid for Cameia. Or delays after delays to Armada Sterling V. I think people hope Armada runs out of things to go wrong, and wait for just NOTHING. Meaning no more bad news for a while. That would be our 'break.'

Posted by vespa > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I am out but still will keep track of Armada and buy in only severe dips for the sole reason I think AK may just take it private for his upstream business. O & G stocks in the North Sea are being hammered due to the incoming Labour govt ( way ahead in the polls ). Policies are anti fossil fuels ;;;
Headlines Labour energy policies already impacting North Sea business
Labour's proposed ban on award new North Sea oil and gas licences has already spooked producers. UK Labour Plans £1.2 Billion Windfall Tax on Oil & Gas Giants.
I am sure some are already aware of this. This could probably be Armada's halting share price progress.

Posted by vespa > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1886712/hueg-new-north-sea-oil-field-drilling

Posted by vespa > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

This is just info and not to troll Armada's prospects with Kraken. I think this has already been baked in the price. Labour is expected to form the next govt

Posted by vespa > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Rohank. NPV as you know is a discounting mechanism. It discounts free cashflow from the future to present. Every year’s projected free cashflow is discounted to the present. So from my basic calc say discount rate 14 or 15% ( this can be determined with assumptions) you discount each year to the present. You could take 5 yrs or 10 yrs to discount plus terminal rate. Generally 10 yrs plus terminal rate. Hope this helps. Here in Malaysia one cannot predict 3 yrs in to the future so it becomes quite academic . This works well with large companies with steady cashflow and durable with few surprises.

Posted by rohank71 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

there is no terminal rate for BA as all its contracts expire on a certain date.
also if discounted cashflow the value should only increase over time.

Posted by rohank71 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I am feeling very jittery on BA. Just worried if the so called expert analyst knows whats they are doing. the numbers doesnt add up.

Posted by nikicheong > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

The Armada Sterling V FPSO, operating at ONGC’s Cluster 2 project in Block KG-DWN-98/2 in India, achieved first oil on January 7, 2024. The FPSO, owned by a joint venture of Shapoorji Pallonji Energy (70%) and Malaysia’s Bumi Armada (30%), is awaiting a final acceptance test to start receiving the full charter rate from ONGC. However, Bumi Armada disclosed that certain payments have been withheld by ONGC during the start-up phase, pending discussions on additional outstanding claims. Market sources indicate that the FPSO owners are currently receiving lower revenues compared to the full charter rate due to these unresolved issues.

The main outstanding issue appears to be the introduction of gas into the FPSO, which, once resolved, will trigger the start of the full dayrate. Additionally, payment issues have persisted from the previous year when the FPSO was ready to receive hydrocarbons, but ONGC could not deliver production due to damaged subsea infrastructure at Cluster 2. Bumi Armada and ONGC continue discussions to resolve the payment issues and move forward with full operations.

The Armada Sterling V is India’s largest floater, with an oil processing capacity of 50,000 barrels per day, a gas capacity of 3 million cubic meters per day, and a crude storage capacity of 700,000 barrels. The FPSO, converted from the tanker Ariake by Seatrium in Singapore, is designed to withstand severe cyclonic conditions.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/rigs-and-vessels/payment-dispute-lingers-for-largest-fpso-operating-in-india/2-1-1660662

Posted by vespa > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Rohank it would help if you get up to speed with Finance 101.

Posted by marlboroman2 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I am just a very small RM 10k stakeholder and trying to piece together what i know of BAB's at the moment, is the below correct? (feel free to point out any mistake made hereinafter, thanks)

1. Sterling V, awaiting 72 hour testing in June 2024 for final acceptance. Thereafter, full charter rate starts in 3rd Qtr (vs current standby rate). Delay is due to piping issue on seabed (McDermott is fixing it?) and coz of the inclusion of gas hence some of last year's o/s payment is in the mix.

2. ⁠TGT, finishing firm period in Nov 2024, client likely to extend lease to 2026 to drill more wells in TGT field, talks ongoing and client is negotiating in tandem with PSC extension.

3. Olombendo, successfully negotiated higher O&M rates last year arising from escalating operating cost.

4. ⁠Kraken, planning is underway ahead of planned return to drilling during 2025, with joint venture approval granted to order select long lead equipment required to facilitate the two-well sidetrack programme (per Enquest).

5. First foray into upsteam exploration & production in Akia block North Kalimantan. A 51:49 JV with Pexco having already secured the contract with Indonesian Authorities, however, still in seismic stage and therefore premature to factor anything in.

6. Leading contender for USD 1 billion EPCC contract FPSO Cameia.

7. ⁠Potential USD 2 bil projects to bid between 2024-2026 for SC vessels, in particular in tge Kazakhstan region (the CEO is flying there this month end?)

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

FPSO Cameia is done by the Saipem with Chinese. Write it off.
Kazakhstan is not a very good prospect. I suggest you check Roach Energy, now at all time low. They operate in Kazakhstan.

Posted by marlboroman2 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Noted with many thanks @ Robert

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

You are welcome. Take it from a guy who spent 3 years in Kazakhstan, both offshore and onshore. All the projects I saw were failing as the locals were simply too corrupt even for Italians to handle them. And it takes a lot to outdo Italians in corruption.
They had good coffee though, I admit.

Posted by TimCoke > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

any news will do, just wait