Posted by Yeap Kwan Lin > 2016-12-22 20:09 | Report Abuse

http://www.capitalcube.com/blog/index.php/ock-group-bhd-0172-my-earnings-analysis-q3-2016-by-the-numbers-december-12-2016/?yptr=yahoo

Posted by strategisst > 2016-12-23 15:38 | Report Abuse

Merry Xmas and Happy New Year...

Posted by ahizra2 > 2016-12-24 00:11 | Report Abuse

Mr OCK acquired some more. Probably he want to get over 50% like he had last time. If thats the case at the rate hes acquiring this will take some time..

Posted by funda > 2016-12-25 12:03 | Report Abuse

mr OCK buying at much lower price than those PP investor...

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-12-28 11:27 | Report Abuse

Upside for OCK (77 sen) & OCK warrants (21 sen) is good, about 80% & 220% respectively, based on current price. Not much interest at the moment based on volume.

Mr OCK is buying 3.5 million shares (8-20 Dec) at 79 sen each. Brahmal came in during the PP at 81.5sen.

Updated in my blog - SOS Will OCK ripe for picking in 2017? - Earnings is coming in gradually in 2017.

Posted by ahizra2 > 2016-12-28 12:15 | Report Abuse

sudden spike in volume few minutes after sosfinance post. But not to the direction we hope lo..

Posted by Ng Joshua > 2016-12-28 17:14 | Report Abuse

OCK pressing down the share price for him to enter?

Posted by Flintstones > 2016-12-29 11:59 | Report Abuse

Any TA sifu care to do an analysis? Share seems in a downtrend

Posted by Zai Zai > 2016-12-29 13:46 | Report Abuse

TA = must avoid, it just break the support of 0.765
FA = Bargain

Posted by aidwiz > 2016-12-29 22:21 | Report Abuse

wah bos so smart acquire so low price. haha.

Posted by sien > 2016-12-30 15:35 | Report Abuse

now we are talking about 5G network and IoT, will need more towers....long run will be good $$$

Posted by FX Lee > 2017-01-03 15:58 | Report Abuse

no idea

Posted by Kkevin2625 > 2017-01-03 17:08 | Report Abuse

where is the 0.7 and below...waiting

Posted by ahizra2 > 2017-01-04 09:08 | Report Abuse

UOBKH Retail Market Monitor 4 January 2017

OCK Group: Solid Earnings Trajectory In 2017
(OCK MK/BUY/RM0.77/Target: RM1.00)
There will be an earnings inflection point in 2017 as core net profit is projected to grow by
27% yoy to RM33m, a record high for the group. The earnings trajectory will be driven
primarily by maiden full-year rental income from Myanmar towerco. Additionally, OCK is
poised to benefit from higher tenancy ratio. We understand MPT is interested in some of
the group’s tower sites and have signed a short-term tenancy contract with OCK. Maintain
BUY with a SOTP-based target price of RM1.00.

Posted by koons3lina > 2017-01-04 10:53 | Report Abuse

CNY bonus ar....

Posted by ryan_och > 2017-01-05 11:12 | Report Abuse

I think it will drop to 0.5

Posted by ttwong > 2017-01-06 09:35 | Report Abuse

MD acquired shares again yesterday. Strange that the share price just refuse to move.

Posted by funda > 2017-01-06 11:27 | Report Abuse

some how feel like it is really going to move soon.... :P

Posted by Zai Zai > 2017-01-06 14:06 | Report Abuse

any kind ppl here can share this report to me

OCK Group: Solid Earnings Trajectory In 2017 UOBKayHian

Posted by ahizra2 > 2017-01-06 15:32 | Report Abuse

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=37744&h=322842c2ab91400f806ddb8a8f0647c0

Posted by Zai Zai > 2017-01-06 15:53 | Report Abuse

ahizra2, Thanks.
Your sharing only summary notes, do you have the complete report ?

Posted by sosfinance > 2017-01-09 18:17 | Report Abuse

Under appreciated stock. why? EBITDA for Myanmar is 60% + Vietnam is 50%.

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-01-10 13:21 | Report Abuse

@sosfinance, how much net profit are these two ventures going to give?

Posted by sosfinance > 2017-01-10 17:42 | Report Abuse

@Flinstones, if I remember correctly, analysts said Myanmar revenue is about RM60m (at tenancy ratio of 1.0x), and Vietnam revenue about RM40m (existing tenancy ratio). EBITDA of 60% and 50% respectively. IRR (equity) = 16-20%.

Myanmar tenancy ratio can go higher than 1.5x over next few years. Most analysts are very conservatives. I remember UOB KayHian said, if ratio at 1.15x, the fair value of the company is about RM1.30 per share (based on DCF).

Posted by Zai Zai > 2017-01-10 22:03 | Report Abuse

Jan 2017 latest myanmar tenency ratio
edotco is currently at 1.9
MIG is already at 1.6

Posted by sosfinance > 2017-01-12 11:12 | Report Abuse

Thanks Zai Zai.

Using, edotco or MIG tenancy ratio as reference, upside for OCK will be pretty good. Not sure why many analysts did not project high tenancy ratio, could be concern of execution and new kid on the block "perception".

Any idea what is the norm of tenancy ratio in Vietnam?

Posted by Zai Zai > 2017-01-12 16:03 | Report Abuse

Hi Sos,

There are too many small independent towerco in vietnam, The next big player after SEATH is Golden Tower. It tenancy ration only 1-1.3 range. Seath is 1.2.

Posted by Zai Zai > 2017-01-12 16:11 | Report Abuse

Why Towerco equity not famous ?
Reason : There are only 18 listed towercos worldwide (American Tower, Balitower, Bharti Infratel, Cellnex, Crown Castle, DIF, EI Towers, GTL, IBS, INWIT, Miteno, OCK, Protelindo, RAIWAY, SBA, STP, Telesites and Tower Bersama).

Posted by sosfinance > 2017-01-12 16:41 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the insights. Looks like you have done more in-depth research + definitely more knowledgable in this sector.

For me, if the biz model is good (high EBITDA), financially strong (not over-geared), reasonable management, it should be recognised sooner or later, despite many players around. (unless it is over priced).

Comparing their pricing, edotco purchase cost in Myanmar is about USD224,000 per tower vs OCK about USD76,000 per tower, perhaps, edotco tenancy ratio is good, i.e as you have mentioned 1.9x tenancy ratio. Some report also estimated that Myanmar tenancy ratio may go as high as 2.9x by 2020.

Btw, why do you think OCK is overlooked?

Posted by Zai Zai > 2017-01-12 18:09 | Report Abuse

I'm believe most of the investor in KLSE has been taught to focus on low PE,High EPS stock.
OCK is the stock that are not qualified and immediately filter out from their stock selection.
They not familiar to evaluate stock using EV/EBITDA. For them High capex = High risk

I'm looking forward few things in this coming years
1)FY17:
OCK able to improve Top line growth (but nobody will notice due to low eps)
2)FY18:
*Better tenancy to improve Bottom line growth.(MIG only own 100 tower in Myanmar but reach 1.6x ratio)
*OCK have 60% of the tower in in highly Populated places, This is a good result as a 3rd generation towerco
*Listed of China tower as a world biggest IPO who own 1.5mil tower finally awake people on tower equity

Posted by sosfinance > 2017-01-12 18:41 | Report Abuse

Tx again. You are right, most investors' clubs will concentrate on high ROE, high income yield, low gearing, low PE, P/BV (which is nothing wrong), and neglect some high growth stock with steady recurring cash flow (like a toll road with growth potential). You are one of the few that speak substance.

The inability to differentiate between "productive debt" and "unproductive debt" could be another factor.

An analyst said, every 10% increase of tenancy ratio can boost OCK Yangon's annual turnover by 21%.

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-01-13 21:01 | Report Abuse

Latest news, Vietnam acquisition completed.

https://www.atkearney.com/documents/10192/671578/Rise+of+the+Tower+Business.pdf/027f45c4-91d7-43f9-a0fd-92fe797fc2f3

Found this article regarding the tower economics. The author breakdown the cost structure of a tower. Interesting to note that the typical net profit margin of a tower is around 5-8% after accounting for depreciation costs and interests.

Posted by sosfinance > 2017-01-13 22:06 | Report Abuse

@Flintstones, as per the Circular for acquisition on the Vietnam deal, the audited past 3 years turnover is RM46-49m and profit after tax of RM7.2-7.6m, that works out to be about 15.6% PAT margin @ tenancy ratio of 1.25 times. (Management will try to improve this margin)

I guess they are using different tenancy ratio as their example. Thanks for the info.

Posted by ez6699 > 2017-01-13 22:20 | Report Abuse

$$$ coming....


Finally Vietnam deal completed....

Group Managing Director of OCK, Mr. Sam Ooi said, “....We intend to grow the business and will leverage on OCK’s experience to expand further in Vietnam. We will tap onto the launch of the 4G/LTE in Vietnam.With the completion of this acquisition, SEATH will start contributing to OCK’s financials.

And

Finally Myanmar awards fourth telecoms license....

http://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2017/01/13/myanmar-awards-fourth-telecoms-license-as-mobile-market-heats-up/

OCK Group: Solid Earnings Trajectory In 2017 UOBKayHian

Key re-rating catalysts: Higher co-location potential… The group is well positioned to
increase Myanmar tenancy ratio with additional tenants. Telenor has a two-month
exclusivity before OCK is allowed to sign on a second/third tenant. The towers are
designed for a maximum of three tenants. Thereafter, minor upgrading works are required
for additional tenants. At this juncture, we understand government-owned Myanmar Post
and Telecommunication (MPT) are interested in some of OCK’s tower sites as they have
signed a short-term tenancy contract (6 months).

…provides scope for earnings upside. The scalability of OCK’s Myanmar towers could
further lift our base-case earnings projection by 21% and 38% in 2017 and 2018
respectively (assuming higher tenancy ratio of 1.2x, from base case of 1x). This
translates into blue-sky 3-year earnings CAGR of 31% (versus base cash of 17%).

Posted by ez6699 > 2017-01-13 23:01 | Report Abuse

Targets to complete 920 towers for Telenor by 1Q17. The group has completed and
handed over 500 sites to Telenor Myanmar as of Dec 16. As such, we believe the group
is on track to complete the remaining 420 towers by end-1Q17. Separately, we note that
there is a variation to the site survey, which resulted in more strategic city-centric
locations being planned by Telenor Myanmar......, we believe these changes
are an advantage for OCK as they provides good co-location potential (additional tenants)
in the near future.

Posted by ezobear > 2017-01-13 23:17 | Report Abuse

Loaded heavily with anak... uncle CK please work harder for my CNY ang pow ... kamsia

Posted by Zai Zai > 2017-01-14 00:57 | Report Abuse

Thanks ez6699,SOS

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-01-16 09:49 | Report Abuse

@Zai2 Where can we find the latest tenancy ratio of the tower companies in Myanmar?

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-01-18 22:33 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/01/18/axiata-raising-us$600mil-from-sale-of-stake-in-edotco/

Edotco stake sale was valued at 12.5x EV/EBITDA which includes potential injection of Cambodian and India towers. I do not know how much earnings are going to be added from this injection. Anybody who knows kindly enlighten me.

OCK is trading around 11.5x EV/EBITDA. And I think Mr. Market is undervaluing OCK's growth potential.

First, let's disseminate OCK potential EBITDA growth in 2017. Based on Kenanga's research dated 1st September 2016, they estimated OCK Myanmar business to provide RM 60m of revenue per year (excluding minority interests). With expected EBITDA margin of 60%, EBITDA from this venture should be around RM 36m.

Next, we shall look into OCK Vietnam business where the acquisition was recently completed. Based on the same set of Kenanga report, the Vietnam business recorded consistent revenue of around RM 50 million per year. Excluding minority interest in the Vietnam subsidiary, OCK's share of 60% revenue would be RM 30m per year. At an actual EBITDA margin of 50%, the incremental EBITDA would be around RM 15m.

Now, adding the EBITDA of both newly assimilated businesses, we are looking at a potential EBITDA growth of RM 50m or almost 100%. If we put in a conservative EV/EBITDA of 10x, OCK market capitalization should be around RM 1 billion (50% upside from the current price).

The maths which I did above assumed status quo, where OCK existing business remains stable and the new business start up smoothly. I had not included the potential growth in OCK business where a higher tenancy ratio could be secured in the new business and more jobs from Telenor Myanmar.

Posted by Zai Zai > 2017-01-19 08:17 | Report Abuse

Industry growth

While tower build had naturally slowed down for the second half of 2016, most agree this was temporary, partly due to reduced capex allocated by the operators and their focus on urban areas (infill) to support data demand, which has exceeded expectations. Operators are said to focus on the biggest bang for the buck, with eyes to special structures such as billboards and lampposts to provide additional coverage, as well as rooftops. In many cases, such builds were undertaken by the operators, mostly because they were single tenant sites that cannot be shared, plus the economics do not make sense for towercos (the rental costs for urban rooftops is often prohibitively high to sustain towerco margins). Between Apollo and MIG, they are said to have rejected 10-20% of such build requests.

However, there is much to look forward to in 2017 and beyond, as organic tower growth is expected to pick up on the backs of the 1,800MHz spectrum auction in Q1 and the eventual enforcement of the operators’ licensing conditions around rural coverage. In addition, several new fixed line operators were awarded 2,600MHz licenses that could require as many as 14,000 sites. One approximation is that if currently 7,730 towers in Myanmar have been built by towercos, this number could grow to 15-16,000 in the next four years.

The reality is tower counts are unlikely to grow at the same rate as during the initial rollout, but co-location on existing towers are growing, and this is further buoyed by the imminent entry of the fourth operator, a consortium led by Vietnam-based Viettel.

The tenancy ratio for edotco is currently at 1.9 while MIG is already at 1.6 on a fairly modest portfolio of approximately 100 towers. Both towercos expect to hit 2.0 in next 12-18 months. In any market, growth of 0.2 per year is indication of healthy growth and a generally good lease-up environment.

The general consensus seems to be that Viettel is doing its primary planning around co-location of existing towerco sites, with the odd sites for infill to match the radio plans. Co-location appears to be the quickest way for Viettel to launch its network around August or September 2017. Viettel’s go-to market strategy tends to be more suburban and rural, perhaps anticipating a slightly lower ARPU. While Viettel has in the past built its own towers in other markets, that deployment and rollout strategy is not expected to work in Myanmar since the conditions, rules, and regulations are much tougher in comparison.

All three operators MPT, Telenor and Ooredoo are expected to take part in the 1,800MHz spectrum auction in the new year, which could be held as soon as March, to help with their 4G roll out. Ooredoo was the first to launch 4G, followed by Telenor, then MPT recently in the Fall.

Posted by Zai Zai > 2017-01-19 09:35 | Report Abuse

It seen to be HL Asset management subscribe OCK pp

I share latest shareholding

https://postimg.org/image/w3xhhu37j/

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-01-19 11:33 | Report Abuse

Wow, zai2. Is that a Bloomberg Terminal you are using? Whats Brahmal stake in OCK?

Posted by Zai Zai > 2017-01-19 11:56 | Report Abuse

i believe the original source is from BT, nowadays many 3rd party software can be modified.Same apply to chart nexus can be modified based on self template.
i cant find brahmal company there =/

Posted by sosfinance > 2017-01-19 14:04 | Report Abuse

brahmal may have unloaded?

Posted by chooheng > 2017-01-19 23:06 | Report Abuse

Start find out Vietnam new co. Too much unrealize debt....

Posted by Alvin Law Pong Yew > 2017-01-20 00:33 | Report Abuse

u mean seath?

Posted by chooheng > 2017-01-20 08:27 | Report Abuse

entirely speculate as outsider...

Posted by sien > 2017-01-20 08:56 | Report Abuse

http://www.dealstreetasia.com/stories/vinacapital-completes-infrastructure-exit-to-malaysian-partner-63079/

Posted by koons3lina > 2017-01-20 10:58 | Report Abuse

no worry.. be happy.... CNY is around the corner..

Posted by Zai Zai > 2017-01-20 12:57 | Report Abuse

sos,maybe my data is not correct