Posted by vinoth > 2015-09-11 18:19 | Report Abuse

Kaki sailing, which P you buy?

Posted by tomjohor > 2015-09-11 18:29 | Report Abuse

Let's see average price and volume since 4/9/15

4/9: 0.1538, Volume: 336,426
7/9: 0.1726, 1,447,399
8/9: 0.1961, 1,552,714
9/9: 0.2122, 1.237,441
10/9: 0.1774, 722,519
11/9: 0.1602, 222,660

So, what you think shark's cost?

Posted by kaki_sailang > 2015-09-11 18:31 | Report Abuse

vinoth, me sailang in H4, Hk, Hv... total share almost 1.5m units, if drop what to do...

Posted by vinoth > 2015-09-11 18:33 | Report Abuse

Could it be that it's not shark but CIMB that is playing a fool with us? Cos I noticed other CIMB counters such as C4 also being pushed down heavily.

Posted by kaki_sailang > 2015-09-11 18:36 | Report Abuse

for me i dun even care for daily movement, what more important the current economy situation and i strongly believe klci will fall, just a matter of time 1 weeks, maybe 2 or more...

Posted by kayyong > 2015-09-11 18:39 | Report Abuse

C4 I think cimb also no market making.C4 no in the money.c12 , price too low
maybe bought back.c12, 13-15 cents can buy some.I already bought many.
Bought too early.

Posted by tomjohor > 2015-09-11 18:41 | Report Abuse

Just buy if price 0.150 and below if KLCI above 1600

Posted by kaki_sailang > 2015-09-11 18:43 | Report Abuse

now bloomberg sell news tat oil will be deep shit until no pants left just beware as we know bloomberg always right...

Posted by Lee Jing Kun > 2015-09-11 18:44 | Report Abuse

the problem is we do not know how long klci can hold above 1600
but me too kayyong, i bought it too early.
let's be patience.it will make a come back

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-09-11 18:45 | Report Abuse

Ya.... But not going to happen so soon

USD20 if happens, is likely to be when Iran starts pumping

That would be second half next year

Just my two cents

Posted by goody99 > 2015-09-11 18:49 | Report Abuse

When I monitor the buy queue and sell queue for these few days, I noticed that there were a lot more sellers queuing -- the buying:selling ratio was one-sided (about 1:3 this morning). Sure enough the price collapsed. When the ratio was that one-sided, the right decision at that time was to sell first, and buy back later when the ratio was not as bad. It did not matter if the selling queue was fake because the result was the same -- lower price. The situation is much improved now, the ratio is about 6:7, almost 1:1. The selling may not be over because the contra period is not over for some buyers and we have 3 days with high volume. If you are interested in this counter, check the buy queue and sell queue first before you make a decision.
************************************************************************
This counter definitely will be in my watch list. It is tough to get a call warrant that is not overpriced. Better yet, it is less than 20 sen!

Posted by kaki_sailang > 2015-09-11 18:54 | Report Abuse

of course it will not be in instant, but slowly drop... same goes to RM and our economy potential... slowly but deadly...

by the time u start realize, our hedge already above RM1... yahoo

Posted by kaki_sailang > 2015-09-11 18:58 | Report Abuse

if this crisis will be in short term, banking will not reduce their workers, factory will not close operation.... just giving u some hint,,,

Posted by Lee Jing Kun > 2015-09-11 19:00 | Report Abuse

Sailang,u have got your point.will see how things go aftr 16/9. If it's still the same, i will go for p too.

Posted by Danny Kc > 2015-09-11 19:00 | Report Abuse

USD 20 per barrels, no really possible to happen, that is even lower than cost price, then a lot miner will close down, since not making money, and when supply higher than demand, then price go up again.

Posted by kaki_sailang > 2015-09-11 19:03 | Report Abuse

im doing some kamikaze stuff here, dun follow if have weak heart,i cant guarantee our victory...

whatever theory u follow must discipline yourself... all the best for all of us

Posted by kaki_sailang > 2015-09-11 19:07 | Report Abuse

lolz danny Kc, its possible. maybe u dont even know the cost for oil production for each producer country, read more data.. not logic from your own head

Posted by LCX1992 > 2015-09-11 19:28 | Report Abuse

Saudi production cost just less than USD10 per barrel.

Posted by Danny Kc > 2015-09-11 19:58 | Report Abuse

i'm just saying not really possible la, i didn't say IMPOSSIBLE..

Yes i got read about cost per barrel before..
http://knoema.com/vyronoe/cost-of-oil-production-by-country

What i really want to mean that, some of the country might cut production, but the only thing not under control is OPEC...

Posted by kakashi > 2015-09-11 22:41 | Report Abuse

kaki_sailang...impressive, about 150k in put warrants...daring.
our current KLSE 1600 does not reflect the current RM level and oil price. We are oil country...our government is getting <40 bil from PETRONAS this year...yearly we are suppose to get 80 bil, base on
USD100 per barrel oil price.

Going down to USD20/barrel is not so logical. Most country oil producing cost is about USD20/barrel...US is a bit more expensive...it might fall to USD20 but that is the way bottom d...This oil glut problem is not going anywhere soon.

Not to mention china massive slow down...export down 14%, analyst estimate down 8%...that is almost double.

But why market up? They believe china will introduce stimulus...quantitative easing...so, its bad news that they treat it as good news...

That is why I start accumulating put warrant HW today. I don't know where market will go in the next few days but I think we are seeing 1500 by this year.

Just my guess. C12 is also a bet if KLSE stays above 1600 but I wont bet it mid term. A few days/weeks maybe but not more than that

Posted by alphajack > 2015-09-12 00:10 | Report Abuse

c12 gonna get hit more on Monday, damn I would buy at 14c la..

today bought 16c and cut loss at 15.5..

too early it seems hmm

the bottom is not there yet

Posted by kaki_sailang > 2015-09-12 01:55 | Report Abuse

kakashi, i think oil can dip somewhere between 30-20 usd due to the chain reaction of global economy event, it will only be stabilize maybe in 2-3 years , if we are lucky...

btw global recession is ahead of us as many expert forecast it.

with the oil prices getting deeper and the fall of ringgit, i don't think our growth can help us from slipping deeper and more deeper, this problem will not settle in blink of eyes and i believe its still not factor in our current index.

Posted by kaki_sailang > 2015-09-12 02:08 | Report Abuse

what i realized in this forum, many people hoping for instant profit from P/C warrant not to hedge common, jump here and there, that why many get burn from P/c w... not many people stand on ground with confident either bullish or bearish... to be frank im totally bearish on our index

Posted by sell > 2015-09-12 02:16 | Report Abuse

HK not good either because premium still high. 20sen for HK is safer.

Posted by sell > 2015-09-12 02:18 | Report Abuse

If both P/C cannot buy, perhaps stocks like AA, UEM S are better bet.

Posted by tomjohor > 2015-09-12 07:52 | Report Abuse

DJ up 103 points. Friend, remember to collect 0.150 and below on Monday if have chance. But, it may not happen, coz Fri they pull up to 0.155 during close bell time...

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-09-12 07:54 | Report Abuse

It is common for different people to have different view

Sell, kakashi and kaki sailang are very bearish, mostly based on their negative outlook on the economy

I am actually taking a contrarian view :

There is a possibility that the actual announcement of rate hike will trigger profit taking of USD, and induced certain hot money to flow back to emerging marjet like Malaysia to take advantage of low currency and depressed blue chips

As a matter of fact, it probably is already happening as certain blue chips had begun strengthening (for example : I bought AmBank few days ago at 4.27, now is 4.54)

Also, If you look at broader market, yesterday despite down by more than 10 points, winners trumped loser 400 to 370. I read that as sign that buying interest had returned (be it foreign or local) amid rising risk appetite

Better be careful if you have a naked Put of RM150k. Maybe it is time to buy some C12 to balance it out

Stockmarket is not a place to win an argument, it is a place to make or lose money. Market will finally decide who is wrong who is right

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-09-12 07:56 | Report Abuse

Yesterday Index was actually doing ok with intermittent support coming in for blue chips

Only in afternoon strong selling pressure emerge

On hind sight,that could be due to Goldman's USD20 oil report

That report also caused oil to dip. But oil price recovered most lost ground at closing last night

Maybe market has already digested Goldman 20

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-09-12 07:58 | Report Abuse

Those are my views, u r entitled to yours, no need to fight

But keep your mind open, your RM150 k's life and death depends on you

Cheers

Posted by tomjohor > 2015-09-12 08:04 | Report Abuse

Let me show more transaction details in lots...

Price 0.130, done on 7/9, 29,203 lots
0.135, 7/9, 77,672
0.140, 4/9, 652; 7/9, 82,682
0.145, 4/9, 50,826; 7/9, 105,031
0.150, 4/9, 32,022; 7/9, 42,486; 11/9, 52,034
0.155, 4/9, 29,680; 7/9, 28,981; 11/9, 34,903
0.160, 4/9, 27,932; 7/9, 36,839; 11/9, 33,117

Average price since 4/9 is
4/9, 0.1538
7/9, 0.1726
8/9, 0.1961
9/9, 0.2122
10/9, 0.1774
11/9, 0.1602

Judge yourself, good luck n hope this info can help u :)

Posted by tomjohor > 2015-09-12 08:09 | Report Abuse

Read this

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-raises-possibility-of-200-a-barrel-oil

Posted by tomjohor > 2015-09-12 08:11 | Report Abuse

That call in year 2008... Then, what happen?
So, now they call 20??????

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-09-12 08:11 | Report Abuse

I don't go in be out for a potential 2 sen difference

For me, that is too immaterial

I am aiming for 30 sen for C12 (if my views above are correct), 2 sen will have no impact on my calculus

And also, going in and out like that expose u to additional risk

I took an "investment" approach for C12. Once I lock in at 17 sen, I don't buy or sell anymore. If it drops to 10, let it be. I will treat it as common stocks and wait for rebounce. Will exit when hit 30 sen.

If it goes to zero, let it be. I will write it off as failed trades. No big deal (I didn't punt RM150k)

Simple

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Posted by alphajack > Sep 12, 2015 12:10 AM | Report Abuse

c12 gonna get hit more on Monday, damn I would buy at 14c la..

today bought 16c and cut loss at 15.5..

too early it seems hmm

the bottom is not there yet

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-09-12 08:15 | Report Abuse

tomjohor of course Goldman likes to issue shit reports like that. Before they issue, they will short big time. Quick profit

Posted by newbie1234 > 2015-09-12 08:23 | Report Abuse

I share the same view as icon8888.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-09-12 08:24 | Report Abuse

As for the economy, we might face a slow down, but might not be a hard lending

Having survived 1998 and 2008, I know what killed an economy : excessive government belt tightening and artificially high interest rate (to defense RM) caused economy to screech to a halt, this will cause general bad debts to soar, which cause banking system to report higher bad loans, which in turn caused them to tighten lending, which cause further decline in economic activities, which caused further bad debts, and on and on the downward spiral

In the absence of the above scenario, all the negative view by kaki sailang are nothing more than alarmist propaganda to scare all of us, to cause Ibdex to drop so as to defense his RM150k Naked Put

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-09-12 08:26 | Report Abuse

that is the way I see it

Posted by vinoth > 2015-09-12 08:44 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, what do you think of C3? Seems like not been goreng yet.

Posted by yungshen1 > 2015-09-12 08:51 | Report Abuse

lcon888 what do u think fbmklci-h5.how come index drop .it also follow drop.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-09-12 09:01 | Report Abuse

don't be scared by the alarmist (aka Goldman, which has its own agenda), read this more balanced report (released few hours ago) about how low oil price will curb shale production

==========

Last updated: September 11, 2015 6:57 pm
Cheap oil ‘slams brakes’ on US shale production
Anjli Raval, Oil and Gas Correspondent

Production of US shale oil will fall sharply next year as a result of the collapse in crude prices, the world’s leading energy forecaster said on Friday, in a sign that Saudi Arabia’s attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers out of the market is succeeding.

The prediction was made by the International Energy Agency in its closely watched monthly oil market report, which said the collapse in oil prices since June last year had “slam[med] the brakes” on the US shale industry.

The IEA said oil production outside Opec, the producers’ cartel, would decline by nearly 500,000 barrels a day next year, the largest drop since the collapse of the Soviet Union. US shale oil will account for about 80 per cent of that fall.

The US industry has so far proved surprisingly resilient in the face of low oil prices, which last month hit their lowest level since the global financial crisis. But the IEA report suggests the growing financial pressure on shale operators and the steep fall in the number of rigs drilling for oil is beginning to take their toll on production.

The IEA’s forecast is encouraging news for Opec. The cartel last November made the controversial decision not to cut production, despite plummeting oil prices, in a marked departure from previous policy.

Saudi Arabia, Opec’s de facto leader, explained the strategy as an attempt to defend its market share and put the squeeze on US shale and other rivals.

On Friday, the IEA effectively declared that policy a success.

“Oil’s price collapse is closing down high-cost production from Eagle Ford in Texas to Russia and the North Sea,” it said. The Opec effort “to defend market share regardless of price appears to be having the intended effect”.

The lower price environment is forcing the market to “behave as it should”, the IEA said, curbing production and also pushing up demand.

Global oil demand is expected to rise to a five-year high of 1.7m b/d in 2015, before falling to a still robust 1.4m b/d next year.

As a result, the world will need more oil from Opec, the IEA said. The so-called call on Opec will increase to 32m b/d in the second half of 2016. The group produced 31.6m b/d during August.

Despite the IEA’s forecast of a fall in non-Opec production in the coming year, total supply this year — at 96.3m b/d in August — continues to outpace demand and inventories are building.
That prompted Goldman Sachs to trim its oil price forecasts on Friday, saying the potential for oil prices to fall to about $20 a barrel was growing. “The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected,” said the bank.

Goldman cut its 2015 price forecast for Brent, the international benchmark, from $58.20 a barrel to $53.70, and reduced its 2016 estimate from $62 to $49.50. It lowered its 2015 forecast for US crude to $48.10 a barrel, down from $52, and cut its 2016 estimate from $57 to $45.

Price losses eased in late trading on Friday after services company Baker Hughes said the number of rigs drilling for oil in the US had fallen by 10 in the last week. Brent crude fell 26 cents to $48.66 a barrel, while US marker West Texas Intermediate dipped 82 cents to $45.10 a barrel.

The IEA said US output from shale fields would bear the brunt of an oil price rout that has wiped more than half the value off Brent crude since June 2014.

After expanding by a record 1.7m b/d in 2014, “the latest price rout could stop US growth in its tracks”. It is forecast to grow by about 500,000 b/d this year and contract by 400,000 b/d in 2016 as drilling and completion rates decline.

However, the IEA also held out the prospect of a rebound in US output if crude prices recovered, saying shale production was particularly flexible and “likely also be the first to respond should market conditions improve”.

Producers outside of the US are also adjusting to lower oil prices. “Marginal fields are being shut or are at risk as companies seek to stem losses from high operating costs. Spending curbs are also accelerating decline rates,” the IEA said.

US motorists are taking to the roads, propelling domestic gasoline demand to an eight-year high. “Drivers’ thirst for cheaper gasoline remains far from quenched,” the IEA said.

The agency expects China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, to keep its crude purchases high despite the recent stock market turmoil, currency devaluation and negative macroeconomic news.

Posted by sell > 2015-09-12 09:01 | Report Abuse

Dow ended up over 100 points. Not true if people say bearish Monday. CI rebound to above 1610 likely. C12 still not cheap either.

Posted by yapie > 2015-09-12 09:11 | Report Abuse

Let check back the oil price on this winter....
A lot country on the north of the earth will for sure consume more fuel than hot summer now...
As all oil company has downsizing their production....
Later like it or not for sure will coz temporary shortage again....
Lets how these people play it...

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-09-12 09:13 | Report Abuse

Vinoth, when come to Put and Call, my stance is very simple and consistent :

(1) Choose the one with the lowest conversion premium

(2) must have reasonable expiry of at least 3 to 4 months

Among the 20 Calls tracked by me, C12 has the lowest conversion premium (1.59%) and almost longest expiry period (March 2016).

All other Calls had average premium of 10%.

C3 has conversion premium of 11.4%.

Tell me one good reason why I should buy C3 and not C12 ?

For me, either I play or I don't play. If I play, there is no others but C12.

===========

Posted by vinoth > Sep 12, 2015 08:44 AM | Report Abuse

Icon8888, what do you think of C3? Seems like not been goreng yet.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-09-12 09:22 | Report Abuse

The reason Puts don't rise and Calls don't drop when Index was down is because most people are not sure how Index will perform going forward. Once a clear trend is established, Puts will rise and Calls will drop when Index down, and vice versa (when Index up)

Market is kind of listless these few days. Most people are likely mildly positive about market (as evidenced by more gainers than losers and stabilising of some blue chips) but wary of 16 September Red Shirt rally (many will be coughing because of the haze, ha ha, just a joke) and waiting to see what Fed will do next week.

This kind of market is actually the worst for Put and Call as it kill both slowly if allows to drag on (loss of time value).

Hopefully, market will have clearer direction soon

=============

yungshen1 lcon888 what do u think fbmklci-h5.how come index drop .it also follow drop.
12/09/2015 08:51

Posted by TengkuFaisal > 2015-09-12 09:24 | Report Abuse

Wwamkakaka

Posted by TengkuFaisal > 2015-09-12 09:27 | Report Abuse

Laughdieme la.

Posted by TengkuFaisal > 2015-09-12 09:41 | Report Abuse

Icon taikor. No systemic risk in call warrant hor.....
Aiyoyo. Laughdieme liao....

Posted by kayyong > 2015-09-12 10:42 | Report Abuse

In theory, c12 is good.low premium, high gearing.But klci upside room limited.
Hangseng index up or down 1000 points not abnormal.I prefer trade hsi cw/pw
than klci cw/pw.I bought too many c12 as my capital not big.Many cw, I can
win more easy compare c12.I hope c12 not further fall in monday.I can take
back my money.

Posted by IVAN2222 > 2015-09-12 10:46 | Report Abuse

again...i was holding 455000 shares...can anyone advice me what to do??holding at 0.225 now

Posted by TengkuFaisal > 2015-09-12 11:05 | Report Abuse

Ivan. Big sifut sifart icon8888 said on thur all c12 holder no need panic sell. No systemic risk in index call warrant.
If u think u can trust his kindergarden logic. U should hold for longterm.

Wakakaka