Posted by nottieboy > 2020-06-13 11:09 | Report Abuse

BTS, Monday could see another round of fresh buying. Dow up about 500 points

Posted by James Ng > 2020-06-13 13:35 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/2020-06-13-story-h1508761994.jsp
[转贴] [LOTTE CHEMICAL TITAN HOLDINGS BHD：平均产品售价和销量下降，这是由于需求疲软以及东南亚本地和国内不同级别的行动控制所致（自2020年1月下旬以来，COVID-19发生大流行）] - James的股票投资James Share Investing

Posted by ttsi > 2020-06-13 14:04 | Report Abuse

So what is the take on next quarter?

Posted by Simonalibaba > 2020-06-13 14:24 | Report Abuse

I find the James report are merely stating past performances reviews without looking into why and what are the key factors determining the future performance of the company. Utter waste of time reading it.

Posted by ttsi > 2020-06-13 14:33 | Report Abuse

If you believe that the price is trying to tell you something, then the situation is not too good.

Posted by ttsi > 2020-06-13 14:49 | Report Abuse

be sceptical and cynical. the price of 6.50 is dangling in front of your eye's and why investors and fund managers can't see

Posted by pradeep > 2020-06-13 15:24 | Report Abuse

I read all the comments. First i bought this stock because it got fundamental value. Now anybody can reply why the stock drop from 6.50. i am looking at the chart. Now looks uptrend from 1.70 and what is the NTA. The most important issue how to solve the spread of the stock. Did they comply or got further extension. I believe the stock value should be above 3.00 by looking at the IPO price of 6.50 or the price was overdone

Posted by secretinvestor8888 > 2020-06-13 16:34 | Report Abuse

back to 1.50 nextquarter back to 1 eoy

Posted by pradeep > 2020-06-13 18:05 | Report Abuse

Secretinvestor8888. I note your comments sorry to say without any explanation .

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-06-13 18:22 | Report Abuse

soros thats is the magical question, how to find out the spread. We can only estimate using historical naptha prices before covid ( Sept to Dec 19 ) and also selling prices of PE and PP prices then and compare then and now. Note that there is no formal exchange where you get can get these plastic prices from so you have to search it via other means. I

In Dec 19, oil prices was USD 65 per barrel and they reported a pre-tax of 142m ( assuming this is from core operations ) for Dec quarter. We can use this as a estimate to forecast how they are going to this quarter.

nottieboy, judging from the volume since the CIMB report, i think that particular fund has sold down already. I think it will be up on Monday too.

pradeep, just ignore these kind of spammers. If you notice no matter what news they will spin it negatively. They feed fear and appear to happy when ppl are losing money. Dont worry karma will get them back with a mountain of losses. When price is up, they will curse and tell u sell before its too late. When its down, they will add fire and tell you how stupid you are and they told u so.

Posted by Simonalibaba > 2020-06-13 19:08 | Report Abuse

No worries guys, I am watching the spread via my Bloomberg. Very healthy margin. Nowadays analysts don’t know how to analyst the factors causing the future performance. I am in it Big position. I am more concern than you man.

Posted by Simonalibaba > 2020-06-13 19:08 | Report Abuse

See my past comment on the spread.

Posted by Simonalibaba > 2020-06-13 19:13 | Report Abuse

Throughout my experienced, I have always bet against the market and the analysts bec I always look forward 6 to 9 months ahead the factors affecting their coming performances. You need to do that to beat the market to have hefty return or else you are only follow market. This stock is what I am looking for for the last 4 years. To me the sweetest achievement is to get right and making money is also very important but secondary.

Posted by Simonalibaba > 2020-06-13 19:28 | Report Abuse

Ya we really don’t know why some people buy or sell but you must have strong Conviction. As it’s now you are merely buying a company for Free and with a complex 40% fully integrated ethane back pet chem from USGulf coast with access to competitively prices feedstock and established O&G infra and logistics. Lct Pasir gudang only derives 50% of its operating earnings which have better advantage than Petronas Chemical. So Lctitan can compete much better than PetChem than some guy have alluded and much cheaper valuation. Not to mentioned it has 51% Indonesia future capacity coming on stream 2021. So you are only paying something for free. What is the problem here. Someone always said buy what you know, but this is what I know very well. Just buy it.

Posted by Simonalibaba > 2020-06-13 19:32 | Report Abuse

And book value is 5.40! Ya it doesn’t mean anything if it’s not making money. Let see the coming Qtr.

Posted by lhh99s > 2020-06-13 19:35 | Report Abuse

when is the coming qr result? is it end of July?

Posted by Simonalibaba > 2020-06-13 19:45 | Report Abuse

Last year was 31/7

Posted by Simonalibaba > 2020-06-13 19:51 | Report Abuse

When u buy a stock it’s better that all analysts call a sell in it but if you can see the upcoming future results improving. Then when the analysts are convince then turn bullish.

Bingo! There you have it 3 baggers (300%)in return!

If you buy when analysts are super bullish, what it’s for us? So so return, my as well buy Public bank.

Posted by Simonalibaba > 2020-06-13 19:53 | Report Abuse

This is my 30 years hard knocks experience where business / investment school don’t teach you.

Posted by Genesis4 > 2020-06-13 19:58 | Report Abuse

Hi sifu, beside these share any advice for other potential share? Once hit my target price i will move out and come back later. Thanks.

Posted by kelvin17 > 2020-06-13 20:13 | Report Abuse

interesting observation ! before May 2019 thats about a year ago this share price was 3.0 above 3-5 range all the while .Recently Feb 2020 price started to drop below 2.0 it just coincide with covid19 period and drop in oil prices . Other than the co always command high and good price level

Posted by Simonalibaba > 2020-06-13 21:17 | Report Abuse

I don’t see any stock potential other than this so far, that is according to my observations. If anyone can share a stock can have >100% gains please let me know.

If we don’t get stocks that can give us more than 100% gain, I rather keep cash. Getting the winning stock is not just about fundamental of the company but more importantly the circumstances surrounding the operating environments like Gloves stocks with Covid-19 threat. But this stock has all the ingredients for a perfect storm to ignite it to higher level. First its good value, buy cash for cash but close to zero valuation in the business model. And still pay dividend showing the management is very confident going forward.
Second, it has gone through the squeeze in margin as at last year and now have rebounded to a very healthy level.
Third the rebound in margin are due to contraction in supply and low feedstock and substantially increased in demand due to COVID-19 demand for protective equipments PPE. The threat of 2nd and third as alluded by WHO further amplify the demand for PP/PE in PPE. They are also supplying to gloves companies.
Fourthly, with the economy reopening up it will certainly drive more demand for PP/PE as people are now more concern now with packaging needs.

Anymore advantages?

Posted by soros228 > 2020-06-13 21:45 | Report Abuse

1. Thanks BTS, well explained. Very charismatic Sifu.
2. Simonalibaba, well said, thank u.

!!! for the James Share Investing; dont try to underestimate all reader IQ n EQ. The previous Quarter results already well explained BY Sifu BTS, u are repeating what CIMB analysis. Every donkey also can do this kind of analysis, very shameful.

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-06-13 21:47 | Report Abuse

By the time they complete their 2.2b expansion in Indonesia they would have at least another 2-3 B cash likely in bank ( as you can see that they actually utilized some of the IPO proceeds earlier but cash went back up due to retained profits over the years ). If i were them now, i would push a higher dividend to lure more shareholder interest just to fix shareholder spread. It would also make a good story that will a good financial result this coming quarter due to a healthy spread and growing demand, they also offer an interim dividend as a quick fix.

The cash pile is also good for M&A related acquisition where you see so many companies badly hit by COVID, many opportunities to explore

Posted by pradeep > 2020-06-13 22:23 | Report Abuse

I believe the above explanation are all positive and we move forward and hope at the AGM we get more good news from the management.

Posted by Nepo > 2020-06-14 09:38 | Report Abuse

@Simonalibaba, very good write out, keep it up!!

Posted by Max55 > 2020-06-14 14:02 | Report Abuse

Thanks to all the sifus for their sharing. I decided to read the CIMB report on Lctitan to understand their basis for a target price of RM1.62.

I note that CIMB has excluded RM3.8 billion cash set aside for the Integrated Petrochemical Project in Indonesia from their valuation of Lctitan, this alone works out to be RM1.69 per Lctitan share.

"Our valuation for LCT excludes the cash that LCT has set aside for its Integrated
Petrochemical Facility (IPF) project in Indonesia, which is slated to be
commissioned in 2023F, although the company has hinted that the project’s
commissioning date may be delayed as a result of the current global oversupply
situation."

I do not agree with CIMB's valuation, this cash set aside must be included in the valuation as this cash although not utilised belongs to the shareholders. If this cash of RM3.8 billion is included in the valuation, Lctitan should be valued at RM3.31 per share.

Given the current price of RM1.95, each share is backed by cash of RM2.03 per share which doesn't include the existing business valuation. This is a great investment opportunity. Not suprised if Lctitan shoots up on Monday morning.

Appreciate views on the above.

Posted by secretinvestor8888 > 2020-06-14 14:20 | Report Abuse

massive selloff this week...

Posted by JayC88 > 2020-06-14 14:51 | Report Abuse

I really like it that holders here are so mature and unaffected by trolls. Likely to shoot up next week, don't feed the trolls. Enjoy seeing their desperate comments for attention - it is a vote of confidence in this counter.

Posted by lianbc12 > 2020-06-14 17:39 | Report Abuse

Secretinvestor8888 , I think u hv personally feeling , Pls don’t afraid the investor here , u should go back and sleep , don’t buy share

Posted by Kristal > 2020-06-14 18:11 | Report Abuse

In 2017, LCT went into the public market to raise money to finance its expansion in Indonesia among others. The group had planned to use IPO proceeds to fund the development of an RM18bil integrated petrochemical facility in Indonesia.

LCT hinted that the project’s commissioning date may be delayed as a result of the current global oversupply situation.

The company had targeted to start construction in the later part of 2020 with hopes to complete the project by 2023.

Last year, LCT sold a 49% stake in the Indonesian petrochemical facility to its major shareholder Lotte Chemical Corp (LCC) for RM3.6bil.

While the partnership is a boon for LCT, the company would need to raise another RM11bil to fund the project that may be tough as some banks are shying away from oil and gas-related companies.

Posted by titan3322 > 2020-06-14 21:18 | Report Abuse

I have to agree with Simonalibaba that it is not easy to find a stock that gives you 30-50% return within a time frame of 6 months from Bursa now LCTITAN may be the right stock FYI I just focus on this stock for the time being

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-06-14 21:38 | Report Abuse

I dont really like to criticize people ( the CIMB analyst ) but for the benefit of Max55 ill share this

This is from all the quarter financial results under IPO utilization.

They budgeted 3.5b for capital expenditure since IPO, and they have spent 1.3b so that means another 2.2b left for the Indonesia plant as TE3 and PP3 line expansion completed earlier. Why they still have 4b cash is because of the all the retained profits the past 4 years, after dividends. In short, after giving us the dividend they still got excess cash so its builds their cash balance.

So even if you want to discount 2.2b cash you claim will be used for expansion, and note that this will be only be completed in another 1-2 years and assuming worst case LCT makes NO PROFIT profit until then, you still have another 1.8b cash. My rough projection is that cash build up might be close to 4b again after completion with projected profits, the next 2 years.

The CIMB analyst not only was lazy to add in this to his valuation, as he just chose to put a disclaimer. Doesnt even comment on increase in selling prices or the spread nor wrongly quotes core earnings ( not taking out non cash items ). I was doing my CFA charter once too, luckily i didnt complete or i might end up with his/her skills

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-06-14 21:43 | Report Abuse

Also, its not logical you take cash away from the expansion and you dont give any value to the expansion. Meaning he/she assumes LCT management are such big idiots they will invest another 2.2b for us ( or based on his assumption 4b ) and this will do nothing for future earnings or it will lose money for us.

Based on LCT track record since 2016, they have only reported an accounting loss on this year Q1

Posted by soros228 > 2020-06-14 21:44 | Report Abuse

BTS, I’m confuse regarding Indonesia expansion,
As well know , Indonesia LCT only hold 50%, therefor the expenses for expansion is only half right or not ? And roughly how much is the cost of expansion in Indonesia?
Thanks

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-06-14 21:47 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/10/02/lotte-chemical-parent-to-jointly-fund-rm18b-plant-in-indonesia

Posted by LBH8777 > 2020-06-14 21:51 | Report Abuse

高手如云!

Posted by LBH8777 > 2020-06-14 21:54 | Report Abuse

卧虎藏龙! You will be surprised if you know some of the sifus here r more than qualified as just research analyst!

Posted by soros228 > 2020-06-14 22:03 | Report Abuse

Thanks BTS.

Posted by JayC88 > 2020-06-14 22:26 | Report Abuse

with (2) patience, comes (3)

Posted by Kon Lim Chai > 2020-06-14 23:15 | Report Abuse

If cash is set aside from valuation, how much should bank shares such as cimb be valued?

Posted by nottieboy > 2020-06-14 23:57 | Report Abuse

BTS.. whatever the argument is, I am gonna earn RM420 for every one cent increase tomorrow. Be positive. Don't be like secretinvestor8888.

Posted by jackson88 > 2020-06-15 00:27 | Report Abuse

There is appx RM3.9bil cash in LC Titan without debts. At 2.8% yield in FD, those cash will earn RM109mil or 4.5sen per share. This is without factoring other profit from business operation.
The business expansion will be delayed in Indonesia. So, the cash will continue generate fixed income.

Posted by facts123 > 2020-06-15 07:45 | Report Abuse

If you have bought with cash, unless oil price spikes, just hold until qr is out. If you are on margin, should reduce some as the whole market sentiment is bad, Dow futures are down already and expected to continue dropping through the week. Don’t be caught having to force sell if it temporary dips to 1.5 or 1

Posted by mf > 2020-06-15 07:48 | Report Abuse

Oil posts worst week since April, snaps 6-week winning streak

Posted by nottieboy > 2020-06-15 08:55 | Report Abuse

Thanks for reminding facts123. Its better be safe than sorry. FYI I don't play with margin.

Posted by secretinvestor8888 > 2020-06-15 09:21 | Report Abuse

goodbye lctitan... more will exit soon...

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-06-15 09:24 | Report Abuse

Lol just ignore him. When prices goes back up later he will disappear again.

Im waiting to collect more if it drops below what i bought that day.

Posted by secretinvestor8888 > 2020-06-15 09:25 | Report Abuse

yeah, and all of you also disappear when it plummets... typical retailer mindset... just want to appear rich and smart... social climbers

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-06-15 09:28 | Report Abuse

After how he got whacked in other forums like topglove im surprise he still want to continue talking. Giving everyone free entertainment