HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE !!
Welcome to my 2014 thread, I would like to start the thread with these words;
“ You don’t have to be Great to get started, but you have to get started to be Great “ UNQUOTE.
Hopefully through this thread we can learn,share and exchange ideas to be able to get started and be Great in 2014 !!
I always believe in simplicity in stock market investment whether you are a FA , TA or Both. My aim is always TRY to make Three correct decisions: What to Buy, When to Buy and When to sell. Yet I still make many mistakes days in and days out. Then I realized it was OK to make mistakes at times, the important thing is to make a painful decision when we are wrong.
My resolution for 2014 in stock market? I would like to be able to avoid “Indecisiveness and Regret”.
Many times I have asked myself in 2013 should I buy, sell or hold? Then realized I should have bought,sold or held.
2013 has been a good year for me and I believe for many of you out there.. Then we must also realize KLSE hit the all time high in 2013. I would like to wish everyone to be successful in 2014 too !!
My new format for 2014 is as follows:
1)GHLYSYS-- Av Price=$0.715( Closing=$0.72, P&L=+0.7%), Trailing Stop=$0.665. Risk= -7%. Tp1=$0.79, TP 2=0.845. (Trading Range $0.685 to $0.735).
Note : Formed an engulfing Bull 2 days ago unless $0.685 is broken it should be moving upward in the short term.
2)MUHIBAH-- Av Price=$2.35( Closing=$2.28, P&L=-3%), Trailing Stop=$2.23. Risk= -5%. Tp1=$2.48,
TP 2=?. (Trading Range $2.26 to $2.48).
Note : Rectangle trading range of $2.26 to $2.48.
3)PERISAI-- Av Price=$1.48( Closing=$1.59, P&L= +7.4%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 0 %. Tp1=$1.65/$1.70. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $1.53 to $1.66).
Note : Breakout from $1.57 yesterday it is expected to break above $1.60 soon. I have raised my Trailing Stop to $1.50 which is higher than the purchase price to protect my capitals.
4)PERDANA-- Av Price=$1.59( Closing=$1.59, P&L= 0%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 6%. Tp1=$1.70. TP 2=1.83. (Trading Range $1.54 to $1.66).
Note: The steady upward movement has slowed down some consolidation can be expected and accumulation on any weakness for future play.
5)TAS-- Av Price=$1.12 ( Closing=$1.15, P&L= +2.6%), Trailing Stop=$1.04. Risk= 7%. Tp1=$1.26. TP 2=1.34. (Trading Range $1.10 to $1.20).
Note : Sideways Movement needs to take out the Doji formed at $1.20.Expects to move higher in near term.
6)TDM-- Av Price=$0.96 ( Closing=$0.95, P&L= -1%), Trailing Stop=$0.905. Risk= 5.6%. Tp1=$1.05. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $0.94-$0.97).
Note :Sideways Movement but upward momentum has increased so more rebound can be expected.
Av Price-- price i bought in and it will be adjusted if i scale in.
Closing -- today closing price.
P&L -- Paper Profit and Loss.
Trailing Stop-The cut loss or protect profit levels. It will be adjusted accordingly.
Risk-The stop loss percentage if the trade moved against me.
TP1 &TP2--Target Price.
Using this new format if my stock is trading in the trading range I would not update the stocks every day.
Happy Trading !!
BARAKAH— As suggested BARAKAH move higher after breakout from $1.60, it tested its immediate resistance of $1.67 but failed to clear it. A break above $1.67 will take it to my TP1 of $1.70/$1.72.
ENGTEX—As suggested ENGTEX tested its strong support of $2.02 today , it opened with a fallen window that means downward movement could be further expected. .Any rebound will find strong Gap resistance at $2.09/$2.10
JAYCORP—Failed to cleared $0.86 to test my TP of $0.88/$0.90.It form a Dark Cloud today at $0.86, more downward consolidation can be expected. It is testing its important support of $0.825/$0.81. I have set my Trailing Stop to $0.795 to protect my capital
MUDA—Hit my TP2 at $1.96/$2.00 today. If break the next target is at $2.10/$2.12. Any weakness offers buying opportunity. I have raised my Trailing Stop to $1.84 to protect my profits.
ORNA—Failed to clear the “Shooting Star’ at $1.30 today. It is testing its immediate support of $1.25/$1.22.
Today i sold another 20% (total sold 50%) of MUDA at $1.99 to lock in 20% profits. I also sold 20% of JAYCORP at $0.845 to lock in 9.7% profits.
Happy Trading and Good Night.
robertoBaggio66,ronaldo96 & yuyu82 , i just came back from airport really have no time to look your charts. If no one else help you out tonight i promise to look at the charts tomorrow for you all.
GHLSys: Has turned bearish with an immediate support price of 0.855 and an immediate resistance of 0.96. Made a MACD bearish crossover on 15/4. It has retraced more than 61.8% since it first broke out with volume on 24/3. Major support is at 0.80. Any further selling tomorrow with volume, could see it trending towards 0.855.
After reading
on 24/4, I believe the situation havent change much. The share price would still consolidate btw 0.84 and 0.895. MACD is still facing down. If you consider bottom fishing, you might want to cut loss on 0.80
MEGB -An evening star just formed on 22/4, the selling pressure is high this few days. Turned bearish with an immediate support price of 0.41 and immediate resistance of 0.48. It has retraced more than 50% since the first broke out with volume on 24/03. Major support is at 0.375. Any further selling tomorrow with volume, could see it trending towards 0.41.
robertoBaggio66 - GHLSys: Did the following analysis for spider99 on 16/4:-
GHLSys: Has turned bearish with an immediate support price of 0.855 and an immediate resistance of 0.96. Made a MACD bearish crossover on 15/4. It has retraced more than 61.8% since it first broke out with volume on 24/3. Major support is at 0.80. Any further selling tomorrow with volume, could see it trending towards 0.855.
I would suggest you set a stop loss price in case the bearish momentum increases. If you wish to buy in further, I would suggest you wait for a price reversal pattern as you are probably aware, we do not want to catch a falling knife.
Update Analysis (24/4): It went through a minor technical rebound from 18/4 to 22/4 and as anticipated, further selling brought the price down towards its support at 0.855, which it did touched today before closing at 0.885. It is in a oversold position and has retraced 78.6%. Immediate support is now at 0.80 and immediate resistance at 0.93.
It formed a hammer candle today implying that the downtrend could be over. However, it is advisable to wait for a bullish confirmation before you consider taking positions because it did tested 0.855 indicating there are still substantial sellers in the market.
Airasia- The bearish engulfing candle has formed on 24/4. Very bearish trend with an immediate support price of 2.23 and immediate resistance of 2.35. Any further selling tomorrow with volume, could see it trending toward to 2.23. Major support is at 2.18 which is the lowest price on 27/12. You might need to consider bottom fishing once things have stablize.
Mpay
I would consider this kind of trend is Parabolic trend like Dsonic trend. I usually use this kind of trend to do defend instead of attack. I find it very risky. But well, different ppl got different risk appetite and preference. Am not sure how high the price will go out. Just remember to lock in profit and set trailing stop loss.
CBSA-
Normally, I would avoid this kind of stocks because there is has always been less volume and suddenly spike. I believe someone tried to speculate it. If you want to enter this stock, you need to monitor carefully, afterall we are just a small fish. Selling presssure is high. If not mistaken, the three black crows will be formed tomorrow. Any further selling tomorrow with volume, could see it trending toward to 0.35. Major support at 0.33.
Profitman- Dont worry. I would love to see your comment about it :) Want to how a good trader analyze a graph. Feel free to correct my view. Thank you !
stay_foolish & profitman, thanks for the analysis on GHLSYS. You mentioned ' to wait for a bullish confirmation before you consider taking positions'. What would that be? After it breaks resistance of 0.93?
deedee - good question. Yes, you can wait for it to clear the resistance at 0.93 with volume. Its a safer approach. Aggressive traders will usually look at the following day's candle, i.e. today. If it gaps up today on opening and rallies up, then it offers a buy signal. But because the preceding candle (23/4) is a bearish candle, we need to be careful. It gapped up today but not by a lot and currently still a lot of weakness moving forward. So, there could still be a lot of sellers out there. We do not want to caught with a false breakout. It might be best see how the candles evolve over today and the next trading session to have a better idea of the trend. Hope this help.
joyous - i quite agree with Mat in that no one here is a sifu. We are all equal. There are people offering TA courses but you will need to check them out. Alternatively, you can google on TA and FA where you will find lots and lots of information from the basics to advance levels and there are also info on youtube as well. This was how I started.
There are also books you can buy and I think Mat has got 1 or 2 book titles that are good. Generally, I find a lot of TA books, in my opinion, not very well written except for a few.
Joyous—Not sure about others, I learnt my TA from books. There are courses conducted by various in-house training like Candlesticks etc..you can visit this site.
I think for FA you may need to learn finance or accounting to understand those figures. I am not sure about FA..Anyone to help Joyous here?
profitMan, thanks for the sharing the TA info..Good works !!
androsjy--
I did the chart for Matrix for pathew yesterday.. # MATRIX—Stage 2 of the cycle and it is very bullish. It is under consolidation after hitting a recent new high of $4.09. Any further weakness should find support at $3.91/$3.86. Very strong support at $3.76, for short term trader exit if $3.70 is violated. A break above $4.05 will take it to next target of $4.12/$4.20. It did my TP of $4.20 and set a new high of $4.28 lately. If break the next target is at $4.48/$4.50. The stage 2 counter will keep going up and keep setting new highs. The only way you can trade counter like this is to set a Trailing Stop to protect your capital in case of a Big Pull Back. Price/RSI has started to form bearish divergence since 03/04. (pathew 24/04)#
Mat, I think the huge drop in KSL that day was due to the loss making quarter result. Most investors are expecting KSL to do better than the preceding quarter but it turned out making losses. Congrats on your Muda winning! I'm certainly miss the ride. Am also collecting Brem a little bit ;) tqvm!!!
choolooi—Can you highlight what is the article about MUDA?
novice8—Thanks for the info on KSL..That is problem of stock, everyone is Bullish on it and suddenly 1 Q bad result it dropped like a bomb..
Ya, I did very well in MUDA as I collected when it was trading around $1.66..
Brem—When I start to collect that means I am buying in slowly, Q to buy and observe the support of $2.02 closely. I may just clear for daytrade loss if $2.02 is violated as the next support is $1.90. So do have your exit plan if you are buying in Brem..It needs to break above $2.07 to give the first signal BUY ( I may scale in) to next resistance of $2.12. If manage to stay above $2.12 it turns Bullish for more upward movement in the future..
Joyous - Mat is right. For FA, you need to know finance. A tip for you, there are 2 critical areas you need to learn for share investing - learn to interpret financial ratios and financial reports and valuations, i.e. how to value a company which means calculating intrinsic values.
Haha..Is there a winning Wave then hope it will never end.. BREM--I am Q--ing to Buy because if you look at the chart, it Is not ready yet.. Do observe the support of $2.02..I start to collect some because it is such a low risk if willing to take some losses under $2.02..
Pathew, you are in Nylex and SDredging kah?
androsjy—you are welcome and will look at your other charts, maybe over weekend if no one help out on SAB, Bjcorp.
Profitman, thanks for the detailed explanation. It is very very helpful. Matrixcool and all the guys here are so nice. Very glad that I found this thread.
pathew---THPlantation looks good after the breakout from $2.05. The bottom of $1.95 looks good for exit..Thanks for highlighting.
deedee—Not sure what is your risk level, IRIS is trading below $0.50 normally I would allow up to 10 to 12% because of its smaller value. To buy, wait or sell, you need to make your own decision. Just share my risk factor for lower price stocks.
Happy Trading..
hi Mat / pathew, refer to above , OSK gave a SELL with a low t.p of 1.64 of TH Plantations today. FYI..
Thanks tuck2 for the kind sharing on analyst remarks.
CPO I feel has upside in mid term.. dry spell from may - aug will make supply less and coupled with biodiesel B5 and B10 composition in Indon and Malaysia to increase demand of CPO...
pathew I in plantation company. we predict eventhough with dry season the inventory will not have much impact. As now the inventory are available, got extra somemore. Therefore we will said it will be down. Unless huge export order from oversea.
tuck2—Thanks for sharing on THPlantation..appreciate it !!
tccher—Target is just an estimated guide, sometime it may never get there. I think you bought in BARAKAH earlier at $1.57 at a really good price, you should “scale in” when it breaks $1.60 (That was the time I bought in at $1.61), to scale in at $1.66 does not comply with TA analysis.. Anyway, good luck because it is subject to profit taking at the moment..
pathew—You are right about the price may rise due to dry spell etc..But be cautious because the production will drop too when it is on dry spell especially those mature palms..
cherry tomato—Thanks for sharing valuable opinion on Palms..
profitman, then we should eye some of those that has been shared before and we'll all benefit from it before analyst make a buy call or upgrade these companies :D:D
Nana88-- Very good question, I would like to share with you how I Scale In and what do I mean overhangs.
a)Scale In--When you decided to buy in a stock after analyzing the Risk/Reward ratio etc the first purchase in the Most important.If that say I would like to have up to 50,000 shares of this stock, my first purchase would be say 30,000 shares. Let say we buy this stock at $1.00 and the next “Strong” resistance is at $1.20. If this “Strong” resistance is taken out with volumes I will scale in say 15,000 shares that is 50% of the original purchase. And if the stock do performance to my expectation and keep moving up say the next resistance is at $1.40, and if break this time I will only scale in the last 5,000 shares to make it 50,000 shares. ( After the Scale in I will raise either my Stop Loss level or Trailing Stop to protect my capital or profits). Note:Strong resistance means previous high, downtrend line, completion of bullish patterns like Cup&Saucer, Double bottoms, Triangle etc..That is the time I Scale in. For example, say MUDA which I already sold 50% of my share when it could not break my TP2 of $2.00 to lock in my profits, but if it does break $2.00 later I will scale in but at a lesser quantity. Now my Trailing Stop is set at $1.84 but if I Scale in say at $2.00 and my average cost increase accordingly I will raise Trailing Stop to a higher value.
b)OVERHANGS—An Overhangs are the stocks that have many resistances to clear, normally it is those stocks that just break out from stage 1 into stage 2 of the cycle, example WCT, it is very Bullish after breaking out of $2.18/$2.20 but due to its previous high there are many traders that were caught earlier . Most of them refuse to cut losses at an earlier stage and watch their money disappear everyday so now if their losses is reduced they will sell to get out. But when these sellers are taken out it should be moving higher. Note: That is why those counters that keep setting new high are the one that are without overhead resistance. Those new high counters all indicators are worthless, RSI could be well over 80,90 for weeks, stochastic could be 90-100 for days/weeks..
New IPO: The onshore and offshore support services provider for the O&G industry, Steel Hawk Bhd aims to list on the Ace Market!
MQ Trader 4403 views | 4 d ago
0:17
New IPO: The largest mini-market player and a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Main Market!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by matrixcool > 2014-01-01 22:42 | Report Abuse
HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE !! Welcome to my 2014 thread, I would like to start the thread with these words; “ You don’t have to be Great to get started, but you have to get started to be Great “ UNQUOTE. Hopefully through this thread we can learn,share and exchange ideas to be able to get started and be Great in 2014 !! I always believe in simplicity in stock market investment whether you are a FA , TA or Both. My aim is always TRY to make Three correct decisions: What to Buy, When to Buy and When to sell. Yet I still make many mistakes days in and days out. Then I realized it was OK to make mistakes at times, the important thing is to make a painful decision when we are wrong. My resolution for 2014 in stock market? I would like to be able to avoid “Indecisiveness and Regret”. Many times I have asked myself in 2013 should I buy, sell or hold? Then realized I should have bought,sold or held. 2013 has been a good year for me and I believe for many of you out there.. Then we must also realize KLSE hit the all time high in 2013. I would like to wish everyone to be successful in 2014 too !! My new format for 2014 is as follows: 1)GHLYSYS-- Av Price=$0.715( Closing=$0.72, P&L=+0.7%), Trailing Stop=$0.665. Risk= -7%. Tp1=$0.79, TP 2=0.845. (Trading Range $0.685 to $0.735). Note : Formed an engulfing Bull 2 days ago unless $0.685 is broken it should be moving upward in the short term. 2)MUHIBAH-- Av Price=$2.35( Closing=$2.28, P&L=-3%), Trailing Stop=$2.23. Risk= -5%. Tp1=$2.48, TP 2=?. (Trading Range $2.26 to $2.48). Note : Rectangle trading range of $2.26 to $2.48. 3)PERISAI-- Av Price=$1.48( Closing=$1.59, P&L= +7.4%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 0 %. Tp1=$1.65/$1.70. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $1.53 to $1.66). Note : Breakout from $1.57 yesterday it is expected to break above $1.60 soon. I have raised my Trailing Stop to $1.50 which is higher than the purchase price to protect my capitals. 4)PERDANA-- Av Price=$1.59( Closing=$1.59, P&L= 0%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 6%. Tp1=$1.70. TP 2=1.83. (Trading Range $1.54 to $1.66). Note: The steady upward movement has slowed down some consolidation can be expected and accumulation on any weakness for future play. 5)TAS-- Av Price=$1.12 ( Closing=$1.15, P&L= +2.6%), Trailing Stop=$1.04. Risk= 7%. Tp1=$1.26. TP 2=1.34. (Trading Range $1.10 to $1.20). Note : Sideways Movement needs to take out the Doji formed at $1.20.Expects to move higher in near term. 6)TDM-- Av Price=$0.96 ( Closing=$0.95, P&L= -1%), Trailing Stop=$0.905. Risk= 5.6%. Tp1=$1.05. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $0.94-$0.97). Note :Sideways Movement but upward momentum has increased so more rebound can be expected. Av Price-- price i bought in and it will be adjusted if i scale in. Closing -- today closing price. P&L -- Paper Profit and Loss. Trailing Stop-The cut loss or protect profit levels. It will be adjusted accordingly. Risk-The stop loss percentage if the trade moved against me. TP1 &TP2--Target Price. Using this new format if my stock is trading in the trading range I would not update the stocks every day. Happy Trading !!