HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE !!
Welcome to my 2014 thread, I would like to start the thread with these words;
“ You don’t have to be Great to get started, but you have to get started to be Great “ UNQUOTE.
Hopefully through this thread we can learn,share and exchange ideas to be able to get started and be Great in 2014 !!
I always believe in simplicity in stock market investment whether you are a FA , TA or Both. My aim is always TRY to make Three correct decisions: What to Buy, When to Buy and When to sell. Yet I still make many mistakes days in and days out. Then I realized it was OK to make mistakes at times, the important thing is to make a painful decision when we are wrong.
My resolution for 2014 in stock market? I would like to be able to avoid “Indecisiveness and Regret”.
Many times I have asked myself in 2013 should I buy, sell or hold? Then realized I should have bought,sold or held.
2013 has been a good year for me and I believe for many of you out there.. Then we must also realize KLSE hit the all time high in 2013. I would like to wish everyone to be successful in 2014 too !!
My new format for 2014 is as follows:
1)GHLYSYS-- Av Price=$0.715( Closing=$0.72, P&L=+0.7%), Trailing Stop=$0.665. Risk= -7%. Tp1=$0.79, TP 2=0.845. (Trading Range $0.685 to $0.735).
Note : Formed an engulfing Bull 2 days ago unless $0.685 is broken it should be moving upward in the short term.
2)MUHIBAH-- Av Price=$2.35( Closing=$2.28, P&L=-3%), Trailing Stop=$2.23. Risk= -5%. Tp1=$2.48,
TP 2=?. (Trading Range $2.26 to $2.48).
Note : Rectangle trading range of $2.26 to $2.48.
3)PERISAI-- Av Price=$1.48( Closing=$1.59, P&L= +7.4%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 0 %. Tp1=$1.65/$1.70. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $1.53 to $1.66).
Note : Breakout from $1.57 yesterday it is expected to break above $1.60 soon. I have raised my Trailing Stop to $1.50 which is higher than the purchase price to protect my capitals.
4)PERDANA-- Av Price=$1.59( Closing=$1.59, P&L= 0%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 6%. Tp1=$1.70. TP 2=1.83. (Trading Range $1.54 to $1.66).
Note: The steady upward movement has slowed down some consolidation can be expected and accumulation on any weakness for future play.
5)TAS-- Av Price=$1.12 ( Closing=$1.15, P&L= +2.6%), Trailing Stop=$1.04. Risk= 7%. Tp1=$1.26. TP 2=1.34. (Trading Range $1.10 to $1.20).
Note : Sideways Movement needs to take out the Doji formed at $1.20.Expects to move higher in near term.
6)TDM-- Av Price=$0.96 ( Closing=$0.95, P&L= -1%), Trailing Stop=$0.905. Risk= 5.6%. Tp1=$1.05. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $0.94-$0.97).
Note :Sideways Movement but upward momentum has increased so more rebound can be expected.
Av Price-- price i bought in and it will be adjusted if i scale in.
Closing -- today closing price.
P&L -- Paper Profit and Loss.
Trailing Stop-The cut loss or protect profit levels. It will be adjusted accordingly.
Risk-The stop loss percentage if the trade moved against me.
TP1 &TP2--Target Price.
Using this new format if my stock is trading in the trading range I would not update the stocks every day.
Happy Trading !!
Today I cleared : a) MAYBULK when hit my Trailing Stop of $2.19, sold at Av price of $2.18 lock in 5.3% profits. b) SCOMIES at $1.13 lock in 10.8 % of profits.
PADINI--AV Price=$1.96(Closing=$2.09, P&L=+6.6 %), Trailing Stop(2) =$1.93 .Risk= -1.5 %. Tp1=$2.12, TP2=$2.20/$2.23.(Exp Trading Range $1.98--$2.20). Note: As suggested, breakout from its symmetrical Triangle pattern and hit my TP1 of $2.12. A break above will take PADINI to uncharted territory to next Target of $2.20/$2.23 and beyond.Any consolidation should find immediate support at $2.00/$1.98. I have raised my Stop Loss level from $1.83 to $1.93 to reduce my risk and increase Risk/Reward ratio.
BORNEO OIL—More rebound can be expected to test $0.69 and strong resistance at $0.705 in the near term.A break above $0.705 signal BUY for it to retest $0.72 and my TP1 of $0.745.
JAYCORP—$0.77 failed to hold today, more consolidation with downward biased is expected in the near term, may test strong support of $0.72(Also my Stop Loss level if violated). Any rebound should find resistance at $0.77 (Support turn resistance).
I am monitoring Minho maybe for a quick trade. Consolidation looks over at $0.935.
MrGala-- MAICA—Stage 2 of the cycle and very bullish. It hits the high of $1.75 on 18/02 and started its consolidation. The consolidation ended when it found a new bottom at $1.30 and formed a “Dragon Fly” doji the same day imply some rebound which it did.It is heading towards its immediate resistance at $1.65 if break will try its previous high of $1.75 and beyond. Any weakness offer buying opportunity and should find immediate support at $1.50/$1.47 with strong support at $1.30. Exit if $1.24 is violated. Did you use your 200MA on hourly chart to spot this counter?
profitman—Thanks profitMan to help robertoBaggio66 on Symphony..
Carrie Loh—Good luck. But please note TA is NOT 100% ok?
matrixcool, the 200ma on hourly chart can't be used for stock screening purposes, but what I do is if I found an interesting counter(which I consider of buying, mostly pullbacks), I will watch it's live hourly chart and wait for rebound from the 200ma or breakout to above the 200ma, but sometimes both can rally up and fail again.
I noticed that some stocks that breakout with great price action share some characteristic like breaking out from below the 200ma on either hourly or 15 min charts.
Like hevea, today and yesterday, the price rebounded weakly from and thus lingering around the hourly 200ma. Plus it haven't broken the downtrend line on hourly chart yet.
Thats how I use hourly chart lah, but sometimes still can end up in a bad trade lol.
robertoBaggio66 - Symphny: Earlier I did post my analysis as follows in response to miracle4faith:-
Posted on 9/4: Broke out on 27/3 to start its bullish trend with volume. It hit its TP1 of 0.28 yesterday, 8/4. TP2 is 0.35 and TP3 is 0.41. Immediate support is 0.27 to 0.275. It is scaling new highs. Catalyst: Takeover by Ranhill. I am also trading this counter with an entry price of 0.21. Caution: The increase has been fast. Remember to set your profit protection price and stop loss price.
Posted on 15/4: Under consolidation now with an immediate support at 0.27/0.28. It is trading with a Price/RSI divergence, i.e. losing momentum. But I still feel that the upside potential is still there. Under such a scenario, depending on your risk profile and entry price, I strongly suggest you set a profit protection price in case it turn against us.
Additional comments: It attempted to break 0.315 on 11/4 & 14/4 but failed and instead formed a dark cloud candle on 14/4, pre-empting a consolidation phase.
mrGala, I find your method interesting and not that I ever heard of.Just to understand when you say you use 200ma on an hour or 15 minute charts are you referring to 200ma (days) or 200ma (hour)? I was actually thinking of entering HEVEA because the support of $1.32 holds so far. But my reading it is not ready because it could not break above $1.40. But if I am willing to take losses at $1.32 say buying around now it is a low risk counter. Due to my Risk/Reward ratio to pick a stock the next support of $1.23/$1.18 is too high for me. So if I trade this counter I am ready to be out when $1.32 is violated.Do you share the same views?
yoda88—I mentioned Minho because it may have found the new base at $0.935. So if you are willing to Stop Loss at this level, it may offer a trading opportunity. I am not in yet but chart wise if break $1.00 ( round number psychological level) if should move to its previous high of $1.16 and beyond.
profitMan—Real good TA on Symphny, very happy you are on this thread to help the forum investors here.
The 200ma I referred to are the ma(s) of respective time frame charts, for example, 200ma of hourly chart is average of most recent 200 hours closing.
I think you are right with 1.40/1.32, 1.40 was the previous high on hourly chart, cause now it's trading near its 200ma of hourly chart, doubt if it will dive really deep below if short term uptrend still intact, anyway i might be wrong as im still picking up knowledge.
matrix - thank you for your kind words. Glad to be able to help out. MrGala's method is interesting. Never occurred to me before to look at 200ma on the hourly chart.
Like to share my experiences on using indicators. When I first started to trade on TA I am basically using indicators to trade, SMA,Stochastic,RSI,MACD etc. and it works sometimes and it fails sometime. So my results are not consistent and worse still during that time, I have some TA knowledges but without discipline.
For example ,when it drop below 20SMA I did not sell instead put a 30SMA to tell myself it is still ok because it is above 30SMA, then it drops further, what happen, I add 50SMA& so on..I did everything using all indicators to convince myself to hold on..except to accept my mistake (Also, my Ego-How could I be wrong?) I think you all know what happen, my capital is tied up..I am praying for rebound everyday and I missed so many opportunities to buy some other moving stocks..
The 2nd part is even more interesting, I get to know a programmer,who is also a trader. We met and discuss and he loves MACD. So we said let”s program a softwares that incorporate MACD, RSI,stochastic and 20SMA to give a signal. He actually changes the MACD by changing its signal line to give a faster signal. Same results, sometimes it works and sometimes it fails, worse sometime it confused two of us... When the market turns bearish all signals fail, he loses everything, including his so call Holy Grail software & I have not heard from him ever ! I know what happens to me, back to work for 8 years to accumulate capital.
MrGala, your method is interesting the reason it works sometimes and like you say it fails too is because : My opinion only..Not all stocks are the same. A stock that works well with MACD might not work well with SMA etc..So unless you can analyze any stock with its DNA maybe you stand a chance to use indicators to trade that particular stock. Imagine the homework hours you need to spend to identify the indicator that work well for a particular stock.
profitMan, remember to help the forum investors with your TA mix FA when I am away..
Thanks matrixcool, I learnt a lot from your experience. I bet that you must have made a great comeback.
Have to agree that technical indicators can distract us from the main focus on the chart, that is the price action and vol. Each stocks reacts differently, so applying a general method wont work all the time. What I think traders can do is to lose small, win big.
I am holding GHLsys with cost rm1. it is quite worry that two days knive falling, can you advice on this stock to cut loss or buy to average more? thanks
spider99 - Matrix is in China currently. Hope the analysis below helps.
GHLSys: Has turned bearish with an immediate support price of 0.855 and an immediate resistance of 0.96. Made a MACD bearish crossover on 15/4. It has retraced more than 61.8% since it first broke out with volume on 24/3. Major support is at 0.80. Any further selling tomorrow with volume, could see it trending towards 0.855.
The decision to cut loss or to average down is yours. We can only present to you the TA scenario. We usually do not average down unless you are investing in the counter for the medium to long term and its intrinsic value is higher than its current price which means you will be increasing your margin of safety by buying in lower.
I would suggest you set a stop loss price in case the bearish momentum increases. If you wish to buy in further, I would suggest you wait for a price reversal pattern as you are probably aware, we do not want to catch a falling knife.
Brendon- In my humble opinion, the graph looks a big U-shape to me. It is very bullish trend and I expect the trend will go higher once it breaks 3.23. After breaks 3.23, it will test 3.33 and also 3.53. Strong support at 2.9. Profitman, please add more your detail opinion :) thanks !
brendonyeap - Sunway: SF is right. It is very bullish and will need to take out the resistance price at 3.23. It formed a bullish harami on 9/4 when it opened with a gap up. A strong buy signal was triggered on 10/4 when it opened higher and closed above the downward resistance trendline. Immediate support is 2.96 and major support is at about 2.90. TP1 of 3.08 was achieved on 15/4. If the resistance of 3.23 is taken out, the next TP is 3.37.
Congratulations on yr winning stock. As always, do have a plan to lock in profits.
hi profitman. what do u think is going to happen to smartag? whats ur current judgement of this counter? whats brewing, im curious of the current value.
miracle4faith - Smartag: I do not know the company in detail, so unable to comment on the future of it. TA wise, it is not a counter traders would trade at this point in time although its volume has picked up unless someone has some inside information. FA wise, very weak fundamentals. It is also not a counter I would invest and trade as any increase in price could be very speculative. It made increased losses in 2013 with negative cash flows from operations, not to mention free cash flow. Loss per share stands at -7.54 sen.
i3raymond - LBAlum: 1st attempt at breakout was on 9/4 on relatively high volume. This attempt failed and it went into a tight flag retracement channel. It broke out from its resistance trend line on 16/4 and the buy signal was triggered today, 17/4 when it hit 0.63. Resistance at 0.65 has also been taken out at the time of this comment. It is continuing its bullish trend with volume and will be scaling new highs if the trend is sustained.
Caveat: As usual, this is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Sorry, for being long winded on this caveat.
Thanks Profitman. Just kiv only, won't chase.By the way, I read about the SK ship accident enroute to Jeju island. Wasn't this the place Mat went recently?
Brendon- Mahsing,It just break through 2.22 resistance line and 2.22 become it strong support line now. The trend is quite bullish which the Bullish engulfing candle just formed on 16/4. Further volume to break through 2.32 and test 2.39. Support line 1 is 2.22 and support line 2 is 2.14.
FYI, this is not a recommendation to buy or sell. This is just a simple guideline :) We are here to be a better traders or investors :)
Hepi- Eah,It has been trading in a rectangular since november until now. There are a few time, it try to break through 0.22. I believe 0.22 is a very strong resistance. Further consolidation might occur if cant break through. Once it break through the 0.22, 0.245 is the immediate resistance and TP1 would be 0.26. Support 1 is 0.19 and Support 2 is 0.165. However, in term of indicator seems like the moving average almost touch each other. and MACD is crossing above 0. So depends on what kind of TA investor you are :)
Profitman, as usual pls feel free to add in more your inputs thank you !
Hepitrade - EAH: Just to add on to SF analysis, it did formed a double bottom between 4/3 and 9/4 with a bullish tweezer bottom on 8 & 9/4 followed by a breakout with subsequent high volumes. However, it formed a bearish tweezer top on 16 & 17/4 suggesting a consolidation phase. For the bullish trend to remain valid, it need to stay above the 0.20 price level.
SF - thanks.
Matrix - how nice to be on holiday. Continue to enjoy yr trip.
brendonyeap---Remember to thanks SF for the analysis too.
We are all here to help each other.I personally really appreciated profitMan,SF and others for their works in this thread. Also after a year of posting I hope the message of setting a plan, be discipline, lock in profits and set trailing stop did get through to some newbies. I am thinking of changing my thread name as it is not me alone now that is helping other forum investors. Furthermore I am always travelling. Maybe after the catch up dinner we can share a new thread together. Thanks everyone I always enjoy seeing new places and relax, it helps in my trading too. The problem with this tour I need to take many internal flight as I am goin3 different provinces in China, so it is kind of “hectic” in that sense. Tomorrow afternoon i am flying to Shanghai then connect to Chiangjaizei.. Hopefully I do have some time to do my weekly summary.
Matrix - I think your message is getting through. I have certainly learned to be more disciplined, although not perfect yet.
I personally do not see the need for you to change the thread's name. I don't know how others feel. When you are traveling, anyone can just pop by to help out. I still find your weekly summary very useful as it presents a real life case study to us.
At the rate you are going, very soon you will have seen most parts of China! Cheers.
China is really big, but after this tour i may cut down trip to China (always want to go TURKEY, Russia, NZ South Island, Spain and Portugal & of course South America)since i basically finish most of the famous mountains in China..The hardest being HuaShan,very steep climb. I like the most are WuThangShan & WangShan, really nice !
i3raymond--Thanks, ya really enjoy LuShan, so beautiful and kind of special as most of mountains does not have much at the top but here plenty of villas and has a small town on top. Oh ya, congratulation on your GADANG that hit above $1.80, i am so happy for you.Hopefully you started to lock in profits too..
Posted by johnny cash > Apr 18, 2014 01:49 PM | Report Abuse
Ornapaper (OPB MK; RM1.20) – BUY R2: 1.54 R1: 1.42 S1: 1.15 S2: 1.11 The stock is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle pattern. Yesterday’s marubozu candle could signal the end of the sideways trend. MACD is about to reconfirm a bullish crossover while RSI has hooked upward slightly after finding support 50pts mark. Aggressive traders may go long here with a stop placed below RM1.11. We expect prices to retest the RM1.42 triangle high next. It is possible for it to even reach RM1.54 next.
have a good weekend bro and sis!
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Posted by matrixcool > 2014-01-01 22:42 | Report Abuse
HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE !! Welcome to my 2014 thread, I would like to start the thread with these words; “ You don’t have to be Great to get started, but you have to get started to be Great “ UNQUOTE. Hopefully through this thread we can learn,share and exchange ideas to be able to get started and be Great in 2014 !! I always believe in simplicity in stock market investment whether you are a FA , TA or Both. My aim is always TRY to make Three correct decisions: What to Buy, When to Buy and When to sell. Yet I still make many mistakes days in and days out. Then I realized it was OK to make mistakes at times, the important thing is to make a painful decision when we are wrong. My resolution for 2014 in stock market? I would like to be able to avoid “Indecisiveness and Regret”. Many times I have asked myself in 2013 should I buy, sell or hold? Then realized I should have bought,sold or held. 2013 has been a good year for me and I believe for many of you out there.. Then we must also realize KLSE hit the all time high in 2013. I would like to wish everyone to be successful in 2014 too !! My new format for 2014 is as follows: 1)GHLYSYS-- Av Price=$0.715( Closing=$0.72, P&L=+0.7%), Trailing Stop=$0.665. Risk= -7%. Tp1=$0.79, TP 2=0.845. (Trading Range $0.685 to $0.735). Note : Formed an engulfing Bull 2 days ago unless $0.685 is broken it should be moving upward in the short term. 2)MUHIBAH-- Av Price=$2.35( Closing=$2.28, P&L=-3%), Trailing Stop=$2.23. Risk= -5%. Tp1=$2.48, TP 2=?. (Trading Range $2.26 to $2.48). Note : Rectangle trading range of $2.26 to $2.48. 3)PERISAI-- Av Price=$1.48( Closing=$1.59, P&L= +7.4%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 0 %. Tp1=$1.65/$1.70. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $1.53 to $1.66). Note : Breakout from $1.57 yesterday it is expected to break above $1.60 soon. I have raised my Trailing Stop to $1.50 which is higher than the purchase price to protect my capitals. 4)PERDANA-- Av Price=$1.59( Closing=$1.59, P&L= 0%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 6%. Tp1=$1.70. TP 2=1.83. (Trading Range $1.54 to $1.66). Note: The steady upward movement has slowed down some consolidation can be expected and accumulation on any weakness for future play. 5)TAS-- Av Price=$1.12 ( Closing=$1.15, P&L= +2.6%), Trailing Stop=$1.04. Risk= 7%. Tp1=$1.26. TP 2=1.34. (Trading Range $1.10 to $1.20). Note : Sideways Movement needs to take out the Doji formed at $1.20.Expects to move higher in near term. 6)TDM-- Av Price=$0.96 ( Closing=$0.95, P&L= -1%), Trailing Stop=$0.905. Risk= 5.6%. Tp1=$1.05. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $0.94-$0.97). Note :Sideways Movement but upward momentum has increased so more rebound can be expected. Av Price-- price i bought in and it will be adjusted if i scale in. Closing -- today closing price. P&L -- Paper Profit and Loss. Trailing Stop-The cut loss or protect profit levels. It will be adjusted accordingly. Risk-The stop loss percentage if the trade moved against me. TP1 &TP2--Target Price. Using this new format if my stock is trading in the trading range I would not update the stocks every day. Happy Trading !!