George Leong's Blog

MRT 2 - COMPROMISE FOR THE GREATER GOOD

George Leong
Publish date: Wed, 10 Oct 2018, 08:41 PM
A blog to share my investment ideas, and to compile my equity research.

Firstly, I want to start by emphasizing that I am not writing this to support either parties, I would leave it to the experts to negotiate their way and make a good decision at the end of the day. However, I would just like to offer my personal view on this matter, just in case some might overlook. 

1) MMC-GAMUDA

Just remember, that the Ministry of Finance (MOF) is doing every way they can to save our money, the people's money in this mega project. If some items are overpriced, please lower it. If some work scope is unnecessary, please remove it. And remember, there are 20,000 workers under you, please consider their welfare while negotiating politely with the government. 

2) MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Let me quote from YB Tony Pua open letter to the consortium:

"So the question to be deliberated upon by this new Pakatan Harapan government is very simple.

A. Do we say, “it’s OK la, let’s just accept the RM2.13 billion reduction offered by MMC Gamuda”? After all, we can take this figure and boast to Malaysians of our ‘magnificent’ achievement, for they would know no better that we might have left another RM2 billion of potential savings on the table. Furthermore, it will certainly save us the trouble of having to deal with the negative publicity and the new international tender exercise which has to be carried out. Too much work... Or

B. Do we honour the mandate and trust the people has given us and maximise the savings we can reasonably derive from the project? RM2 billion can pay for 5 hospitals, or 50 schools. RM2 billion is hell of a lot of money when I see my MoF colleagues who are struggling and scrimping to find RM50 million savings here, and RM80 million cuts there for the upcoming Budget."

From the above, it seems that the government is trying to save RM4 billion from the underground work package, but MMC-Gamuda can only offer RM2 billion cost reductions.

The difference would be RM2 billion. Yes, I do agree its a huge amount to be saved, but what about the other cost involve if the project is terminated, for example:

a) MARKET CAPITALIZATION LOSS
Since this announcement on Sunday, the market capitalization of MMC, Gamuda, Sunway Construction and many others has decreased by at least RM2 billion. A check on the 30 largest shareholders consist of EPF, KWAP, Unit Trust companies, Insurance companies etc. 

It also means the people's wealth is affected, by at least RM2 billion. Isn't that the RM2 billion difference mentioned earlier?

b) ECONOMIC LOSS
With the re-tendering process to take place, it would only mean a delay in MRT 2 completion. What is the economic loss of the delay in completion? If it's completed earlier, more economic activities or transactions can take place. Drivers do not need to be caught in the jam throughout the construction period. More things can be done. 

c) TERMINATION LOSS
With this termination, the government would have to compensate the company, and many other lawsuits would take place with the parties involved (Government, MMC, Gamuda, Employees, Suppliers etc). How much time and money would be wasted in court? 

d) WELFARE OF THE FAMILIES
Many families are worried whether there be food on the table in the next few months. Yes, MOF mentioned that they can be employed by the next winning bidder, but when would that take place? after a few months or a year? The tendering exercise would take some time for review. And finally the big question is, would the winning bidder even want to employ these people? 

Sincerely wish MMC-Gamuda could continue to be polite and negotiate with the government, go back to the drawing board and give MOF an offer they cannot refuse. Also wish the government can consider the sharing above and make the best decision for all stakeholders. 

If, at the end of the day, the savings made by terminating MMC-Gamuda outweigh the quantitative and qualitative factors mentioned above, then by all means, terminate them.

We are all MALAYSIANS. So let's not fight among ourselves, let's unite for the greater good, for Malaysia to return to be Asian Tiger. .

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/open-letter-mmcgamuda

 

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Be the first to like this. Showing 3 of 3 comments

George Leong

Thanks for sharing your view here "Speedy Boy".

2018-10-10 21:21

hpcp

It is worrying that Tony Pua is advising the Finance Minister. He is so simplistic and naive to think that RM25b is sufficient to takeover all the toll roads. Being hostile, it will hurt both the bond market and the stock market, as well as causing investors to lose confidence, making it costlier for government to raise fund through bond issuance in future. It requires billiions to maintain the highway yearly. Isn't that a huge burden to the government?

2018-10-11 06:22

Jonathan Keung

LGE announcement of the termination plus DJ sharp drop have a rippening effect on KLSE. pls calculate the losses sustain by the shareholders. pullout by FDI over proposed capital tax further weigh on Malaysia securities. going to be tough & bad for the economy

2018-10-11 06:32

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