THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

GLEANINGS NUGGETS OF TRUTH ABOUT PALM OIL FROM TSH FORUM, Calvin Tan

calvintaneng
Publish date: Thu, 11 Aug 2022, 09:24 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,683
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Good evening everybody in i3 Forum

Today Calvin some Nuggets of Truths from TSH RESOURCES FORUM

And would like to share here

Posted by OneOracle > 9 hours ago | Report Abuse

Retired sifu told my friend.

It took more than 40 years for palm oil to break usd3800 box.
It is very very very difficult to acchieve. There are many times in history oil broke usd100 even USD150.
He asked my friend why no one ponder on that.
He said everytime Palm oil broke box of trading.
1st box 800 to 1800 ,
2nd box 1800 to 4000 and now
3rd box 4000 to 8000.
Every time there is a big fundamental shift both in financial and physical demand and supply.

Now the CPO is trading in 3rd box which signify the 3rd fundamental shift in this sector.
But the stock price of plantation had not reflected.
He said old economoy rerating is always slow unlike new economy.

What fundamental shift resulted in CPO broke into 3rd box.
He said its a long story. Next time then say.
He said its very difficult to find a stock to all in. And he already found it.


Posted by OneOracle > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

From 1980 to 2007 (30yrs), Palm oil support is around 850 . Resistance is 1800.
Why suddenly after 2008 it broke the resistance of 1800 and went up to 4000 resistance ?
There after from 2008 to 2020(12 yrs) . 1800 to 4000 is the box for palm oil.
Beginning 2021,it broke 4000 and went u p to 8000.
Is it because of demand and supply of palm oil? May be.
But the primary reason is QE .
2008 QE. Palm oil broke 1800 resistance. Then palm oil start trading between 2k to 4k for 12 yrs.
2021 QE Palm oil broke 4000 resistance. Then palm oil start trading between 4k to 8k for the next 12 yrs ?

There is a price for QE. PAlm oil always double when there is massive QE.

The valuation of Palm oil company will only start reflecting in 1 to 2 yrs.
The valuation of Palm oil company shld double or triple since CPO range is lifted from 2 to 4 to 4 to 8.


OK Calvin comments:

It is true from historical trends

Read again



1st box 800 to 1800 ,
2nd box 1800 to 4000 and now
3rd box 4000 to 8000.
Every time there is a big fundamental shift both in financial and physical demand and supply.

It reminds us of House Price Trends in KL


in 1990 a 2 Storey house in Taman Sri Petaling Cost Rm100K to Rm200K

by year 2008 house prices have shot up to Rm400K

Today 2 Storey houses in Taman Sri Petaling is Rm800,000


Same goes for food

It was 30 sen to 50 sen for a bowl of laksa mee in 1960s

in 1980s it cost Rm3.50

Today is Rm7.00 to Rm8.00 per bowl


SO IT IS A NATURAL PROGRESS FOR CPO TO GO UP FROM 

RM800 - RM1800 Range

Then

RM1800 to RM4000 range

And Now

RM4000 to Rm8000

By way of high land cost, wages, fertilizer & the weakening of currency against Money Printing

Not only CPO Prices are up

Plantation land

Used to Cost RM500 an acre

Later Rm10,000 to Rm12,000 an acre

Today asking prices of 

Palm oil lands 

Rm15,000 to Rm30,000 in East Malaysia


For West Malaysia

RM60,000 to Rm100,000

And those Palm oil lands with commercial potential

RM261,000 per Acre (Bplant sold to YTL Power in Kulai for Data Center)

THAT IS WHY PALM OIL IS A HEDGE AGAINST INFLATION TO PROTECT VALUE


Posted by OneOracle > 5 hours ago | Report Abuse

Sifu said.
Back in 80s CPO is below 800. KLK is only at 60 sen.
Now 2022 CPO is trading above 4k. KLK is above rm22.
Very Clear Trend.

Before 4k box break out plantation not worth to invest.
It is because many plantation is working for bank because assets and land are own through borrowing.
Now like TSH no longer work for bank . As they would be able to clear off all their debts. They are debt free.
TSH will have NTA 2.++ by next year.
PB about 0.5.
The only thing bad thing is boss keep buying. And that is also the good thing.


Calvin comments:


WELL SAID!

TSH HAD OVER RM1 BILLION IN DEBT LAST YEAR

BY END 2022 OR EARLY NEXT YEAR WITH THE SALE OF BULUGAN LANDS FOR RM731.09 MILLIONS PLUS OWN RM340 MILLIONS CASH DEBT WILL BE ONLY A MERE RM62 MILLIONS


WITH HIGH CPO TSH EASILY GET RM200 MILLIONS CASH A YEAR


SO TSH NO LONGER WORKING FOR THE BANK

NOW TSH LIKE INNO WILL BE WORKING FOR ALL DIRECTORS WHO INVESTED AND ALL SHAREHOLDERS



BEST REGARDS

Calvin Tan


Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your remisier/fund manager










Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 45 of 45 comments

calvintaneng

Additional inputs

1. Wilmar Spore has declared an increase of 55% profit from latest qtr results

In spite of Cpo ban Wilmar still did so well due to its export of finished products like Cooking oil and others which were not affected by the ban

This is good news for Tsh as it's Cpo is sold to Wilmar's Refineries in Indonesia

1 month ago

calvintaneng

2. ANOTHER EXCELLENT PIECE OF GOOD NEWS IS THE EARLY SUBSTANTIAL PORTION COMPLETION OF 71% BULUGAN LAND SALES OF WHICH APPROXIMATELY RM500 MILLIONS CASH HAS ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED

THIS SHOWS THE UTMOST DILIGENCE TSH DIRECTORS SPEED OF WORK WHICH IS COMMENDABLE

1 month ago

calvintaneng

Total sum to be in will be Rm731.09 millions so the balance sum of 29% should be in Nov 2022 results if that too can be completed before Sept 30, 2022. If not the balance profit Reporting will be staggered into two qtrs

This was what happened to Sabah land sales of Rm248 millions with 7.56 sen profit which were staggered into two qtrs as final payment was only received by May 2022 only in time for result this month (this month will report April to June qtr)

A simple break down

For This month the balance profit from Sabah land sale still got 3.99 sen. Plus high Cpo price and increased Ffb (20.9% more QoQ) This month's results should be excellent


Nov 2022 will be spectacular in view of about 22 sen Profit from Bulugan Land sale brought forward

this shows Tsh will see All 4 qtrs of 2022 improving be leaps and bounds and right into 1st qtr of year 2023

1 month ago

calvintaneng

To sum it up

1. Over time Cpo prices rose in 3 stages

Stage one
From rm800 to Rm1800

Stage two
From rm800 to Rm4000

Stage three
From rm4000 to Rm8000

So at stage three with outsized profits all palm oil co will see high cash inflow to settle bank loads

2. Tsh at long last will no longer work to service bank loans and start giving good dividends like in innoprise plant

1 month ago

calvintaneng

Altough 80% of Tsh are in Indonesia there is no problem as its cpo is sold to Wilmar Refineries
Wilmar has reported a nice jump of 55% in profit as downstream export has no limit by cpo ban

1 month ago

calvintaneng

This year of 2022 will report all 4 qtrs of ever increasing profits qtr after qtr right into 1st qtr of 2023

1 month ago

calvintaneng

With the final clearance of all debts Tsh will be a debt free entity like innoplant paying good dividends

1 month ago

calvintaneng

Innoplant in early years paid zero dividends and its share price languished at 50 sen

This year every qtr innoplant paid 6 sen dividend and inno share price crossed rm2

So when Tsh starts paying out good dividends market will rerate Tsh upwards

1 month ago

calvintaneng

There is a big difference between Tsh and innoplant

Innoplant from inception has no assets as its lands are owned by innoprise the investment arm of Sabah Govt

As such since it owns no assets it also got zero bank loans

Tsh on the other hand bought lots and lots of assets by bank loans

So since innoplant has zero loan all its earnings could be used to pay good dividends

And innoplant also has no palm oil estates for sale unlike Tsh which bought assets when prices were rock bottom

1 month ago

calvintaneng

So after a big round of assets accumulation with bank loans pared down Tsh has finally turned into a very high value company of value plus growth

Innoplant has zero value in assets but only growth

Tsh has IMMENSE ASSETS PLUS GROWTH

SOTSH WILL SHOW A DIVERGENCE OF PRICES IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS WHEN THINGS GET CLEARER AND CLEARER

1 month ago

aa88

waiting

1 month ago

stockraider

Very important to focus on the facts & fundamental loh!

Remember this Very Important mah!

Cpo above Rm 4000 but cost of production below Rm 2000.
Cash is increasing & borrowing is reducing loh!
Big cash is flowing in from partial disposal some plantation indon, realizing very big profit.
The big boss is aggressively buying back TSH share mah!
Inflation is there & RM is weakiening.....making investment in plantation highly attractive loh!
The cash generation is very strong but share price is year low loh.....making investment here highly safe & attractive loh!

Lu tau boh?

1 month ago

stockraider

Naik lagi ....means more upside coming loh!

1 month ago

stockraider

The GROSS MARGIN for CPO is about 50% loh!

Very high mah!

1 month ago

stockraider

For the naysayers...It is not too late to repent.....and change direction....by buying into TSH now mah!

1 month ago

stockraider

Mari...mari....cepat beli !

Sebelum terbang tinggi tinggi !

1 month ago

calvintaneng

Hahaha!

Naysayers told palm oil investors to repent?

Naysayers are the very ones who should repent kaw kaw!

1 month ago

stockraider

Betul...betul....betul!

Up Lagi?!

That means profit margin much more than 50 % loh!
Posted by skoh888 > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

CPO futures at RM4350!


Posted by skoh888 > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

CPO futures at RM4350!

1 month ago

calvintaneng

Ok another potent point

See

The valuation of Palm oil company will only start reflecting in 1 to 2 yrs.
The valuation of Palm oil company shld double or triple since CPO range is lifted from 2 to 4 to 4 to 8.

Now people assign P/e for palm oil at single digit and SOP P/E only 2.88 lowest on planet earth for Palm oil {Tech P/E is 50 to 60)

Some day they will rerate Palm oil upward

Many with P/E 50 or 60 among Tech will perish like Polaroid camera or the , fax machine

Palm oil & cooking oil will never go out of fashion

1 month ago

stockraider

Correct loh!

Everybody need to eat loh!

Even if we do not plant palmoil......we can always plant something else loh!

The land...has infinite use & will not go out of fashion....unlike petrol refinery loh!

1 month ago

Investformilkmoney

All indications show only 1 direction. And it is UP direction.

1 month ago

calvintaneng

Tsh will move much higher by

Great results this month from

a) 3.99 sen profit left from Staggered sale of Sabah estates

b) Very good Ffb harvest this April to June (20.9% more than 1st qtr)

c) Cpo at world record Rm6552

barring unforeseen impairments this month should report better qtr than last qtr profit of 6.99 sen overall

Nov 2022 result will be even better as there is about 20 sen staggered profit from Bulugan land sale alone

Earning and stronger earnings are compelling factors powering up share prices

1 month ago

calvintaneng

Happy morning and more good news

1. Soyoil rebounded up near Us 70 sen a lb

Very good uplift for Cpo next week

We started getting bullish when soyoil reached us30 sen a lb in year 2020

When soyoil crossed us 30 sen a lb we expected Cpo to cross rm3000

As soyoil goes higher we can expect palm oil to go back to rm4500 - rm5500 range

1 month ago

calvintaneng

2. Malaysia registered 8.9% gdp growth beating Vietnam, India and China

Spore Gdp contracted due to high cost

The collapse of ringgit has made Malaysian export super competitive

Foreign Funds will return to Malaysia

Among chosen ones by Morgan Stanley in Msci is Tsh resources and Taann

Also big cap like Klk, simedarby plant, ioi corp and Sop might see inflow

1 month ago

calvintaneng

Good news and more good news

Yesterday Usa market rebounded up and this will boost Klse

Fund managers have resumed work in earnest after their mid summer holiday break

That was when markets were weak but from now market especially palm oil will see active buying

Cpo future rebounded to rm4407 and still going higher

And the spectacular results for all palm oil co will unfold next week onward

1 month ago

calvintaneng

Yesterday Spore Goldenagri palm oil jumped 154% in profit year on year.

In spite of cpo export ban by Indon govt it still outperformed

Wilmar profit also up by 55%

Tsh with 80% palm oil operation in Spore should do well

1 month ago

rusliasas

I hv 145k shares of TSH n would increase to 200k nx week for long term holding. I trust your report Mr Calvin

1 month ago

calvintaneng

If can hold long term I think chances of winning is 99% for Tsh

That is what I intend to do

Thank you

1 month ago

Berlin

@Calvintaneng ; Were you wrong in April/May 2022 when you exhorted investors to load up on and hold tight TSH and other palm oil stocks at very high prices even as industry experts predicted CPO prices at RM7000 were not sustainable and would decline?

1 month ago

StartOfTheBull

Right or wrong if you compare now and the past. What is right or wrong now is difficult to know if you compare now and the future.

1 month ago

Berlin

@Calvintaneng; Can you discern the difference between buying at 1.80 in April and buying at 1.15 in August 2022? Or are you never wrong, just temporarily mistaken for time will prove you to be right?

1 month ago

calvintaneng

Why not direct same question to Insiders and Directors of Tsh as well?

Why Director Tan Aik Pen bought at Rm1.09 and did not sell any at Rm1.89?

Was he wrong to chase Tsh to Rm1.79)

Ask yourself, "Was he wrong not to sell at Rm1.89?

Did he make a big mistake buying Tsh at Rm1.79?

And go ask his brother Director Tan Aik Yong why buy so much Tsh at Rm1.643?

not a few thousand lots but he bought a Whopping 16 Million shares of Tsh worth OVER Rm26 MILLIONS

DID DIRECTOR TAN AIK YONG ALSO MAKE A BIG MISTAKE AS WELL?

1 month ago

Berlin

Calvin: I am asking you, so do me the courtesy of answering directly. If not, I shall draw my own conclusions about you and post them if need be.

1 month ago

calvintaneng

Berlin

what is so important to you how much I buy?

I started buying at Rm1.09 and continued to buy up

following director buying

it went down and I continued to buy and buy even more and more

I bought below Rm1.00

So my average cost is very good now by following Director constant buying

I will enjoying and riding on the most spectacular non stop purchase of director buying up again

Investing is effortless

so now you better not miss the golden opportunity

1 month ago

Berlin

Calvin; You really are a narcissistic clown. I don't care how much you buy or what price you buy at. The question was whether it was wrong to exhort investors to buy at high prices in April/May 2022 when industry experts were predicting CPO prices will decline but of course the narcissist in you will never admit to being wrong. Yes, you exhibit defining symptoms of a narcissistic personality with all the accompanying traits of being prideful, insecure, defensive, manipulative, needing constant admiration and of course the I-cannot-be-wrong syndrome. But do not fear. A skilled psychotherapist can treat the condition in time.

1 month ago

calvintaneng

Berlin

I have answered your question as you asked

I did not expect you to start an accusation

now did I point a gun at you or anyone else to buy?

I have followed Director Tan Aik Pen constant buying and not selling to the very letter

As to others saying palm oil prices too high is only on hindsight

What if prices did not correct?

And now that prices have corrected can you be 100% sure that it won't go back higher again ?

You must remember when you clench your fist to point a finger - 3 of your fingers point back at you

As for Directors buying we also saw in Daiman, Bonia, Texchem, Complete logistic and Ancom all buying and buying

so what happened to those who followed them buy high even now?

As for Tsh no other Director kept up buying and buying like him and his holdings now crossed 290 millions shares

1 month ago

anthonytkh

Berlin, there isn’t any need. Not no more. Never has been and shouldn’t ever be. I recognize your intentions but it’s a bit blase to me and surely to you and other experienced folks that chosed to keep their counsel by not posting anything here in this wonderful i3 world

We focus on current situations, not individuals that seems to have run out of ideas other than to hit the repeat button

He’s just who he was, is and almost certainly will be. You know it

I already gave up giving hints to him here. He continues. And so be it. I just do what I do

1 month ago

Berlin

@anthonytkh; I think you are right. Better for my mental health to let the person continue to be what he is and just ignore his sometimes absurd posts and annoying idiosyncrasy. Going to the pub to have an ice cold beer this really hot day. You have a good day yourself.

1 month ago

calvintaneng

Just a kind reminder

This post is a summary from OneOracle who shared from "one retired Sifu" extracted from Tsh forum and highlighted here

These are the ideas

1. Cpo used to range from Rm800 to Rm1800 for stage one or level one

Then it moved up to Rm1800 - Rm4000 in year 2008 due to QE

now in year 2021 it has gone up to stage 3: Rm4000 to Rm8000 range

as such palm oil companies all earn enough to pay off all bank loans

1 month ago

calvintaneng

So in time past when Cpo prices were low palm oil co which borrow to buy lands were servicing banks only

but now due to high Cpo prices palm oil co earn more than enough to pay off bank loans and can now be a Cash cow for dividend payout to shareholders

This makes investing in palm oil viable

1 month ago

calvintaneng

Plus palm oil is old economy and will take time to recognise it's true value which might take one or two years to reflex it's true value

so now palm oil p/e only single digit like Sop and Taann at 3 or 4 only while Tech p/e can be 50 to 60

in time to come palm oil might trade at p/e 10 to 20

and by then prices will double or triple

Post a Comment

1 month ago

anthonytkh

Berlin, I mean why get worked up or hung up on a stranger?

There’s a really good saying that I *try* to adhere to :

“If you have nothing good to say about anyone, say nothing”

I understand human nature and I’m fallible. I just try talking to myself as often as I can

But only when I’m not in happy hour time :) Hope it’s good beer :)

1 month ago

StartOfTheBull

Same as an advertisement, if you don't like it, annoying to you and it is being repeated over and over again, just choose to ignore it and you should be feeling fine.

1 month ago

OnTime

would be nice if there is an ignore button

1 month ago

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