Posted by PureBULL . > 2019-03-09 04:24 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
I personally love all the 4 n now 5 stocks in your holding.
U r good in stock selection. u truly know how biz can work BETTER on the long haul for perpetual increasing profits.

I build a simple algorithm to scan, seek n find great winning stocks.
All your 5 stocks appeared everyday in my list for years. They r certainly great stocks with QL being the greatest stock ever produced in Msia. 2nd goes to TOPGLOVE. Both these r owned by my MU fellows, am so proud of them.

But I also focus n specialize in pure Right Timing in every entry n exit.
These stocks all take few yrs to go highly profitable purebull run n inevitably will go into weak bear for yrs too to be fair. so timing them for in n out is also KEY.
I wish to take position in their yrs of growth at right timing.
For now QL n PCHEM r ok. Gloves r certainly out edi mths ago.

STONECO STNE, a brand new PLC has a sexy biz model. Thanks for introducing..
I love PAYPAL, PYPL n MA, V too. They r great winning world class stocks always..



Philip, u just put all the high n mighty FUN Managers in our country to great SHAME !!!

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 08:57 | Report Abuse

I am also a university of malaya graduate

Must be something in the water they serve in the canteen.

\{^___^}\. /{^___^}/

Posted by PureBULL . > 2019-03-09 09:03 | Report Abuse

TEOH.LAH Philip

Bagus.nya our ivy.league.of.malaya

CLAP CLAP CLAP

Was Prof JOMO, our true talent from Harvard uni lecturing U ?

Posted by VenFx > 2019-03-09 09:13 | Report Abuse

(S = Qr) Philip
Appreciate your in depth sharing.

Posted by VenFx > 2019-03-09 09:16 | Report Abuse

(S = Qr) Philip

Can i ask sir a question ?
Would you consider to venture into QL's 'family mart' biz or invest your money into QL ?
Mind to share their pros & cons ? Tq

Posted by VenFx > 2019-03-09 09:20 | Report Abuse

Only thing that puzzle me is why QL deserve at x 50 p.e. ?
Is it the quality of the future earning prospect or its biz segment family mart that lift QL's premium ?

Posted by lachai2004 > 2019-03-09 09:26 | Report Abuse

Philip, Thank you for your sharing.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 09:28 | Report Abuse

Sadly, I did not have that luck. To be honest I didn't even know he existed. I was in engineering faculty, not social science. Although my life would probably have been very different if I studied economics instead. But I would not have had the same mental models. If I was stuck as an economist instead of an engineer/farmer I'm sure my mindset would have been much more rigid.

>>>>>
Bagus.nya our ivy.league.of.malaya

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 09:30 | Report Abuse

Personally I think I am too old to be Apu and run a Kwik-E-mart.
I'd rather be Mr burns.

>>>>>>>>
Can i ask sir a question ?
Would you consider to venture into QL's 'family mart' biz or invest your money into QL ?
Mind to share their pros & cons ? Tq

Posted by sich > 2019-03-09 09:42 | Report Abuse

Philip,

QL, from 1.26M to 13.7M in 10 years. CAGR is 27%
Top Glove, from 1.3M to 9.2M in 9 years. CAGR is 24 %
Yinson, from 0.78M to 2.7M in 7 years. CAGR is 19%

Above CAGR based on if you invested all the cost at beginning. Since your cost was invested progressively the CAGR is higher.

You are indeed the oracle of Kota Kinabalu.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 09:49 | Report Abuse

Maybe you should delve deeper into what PE means ( try explaining it to your 10 year old child). For me pe is just an indicator of market demand, and not a true indication of the business itself.

Let me put it this way.
Imagine if you have a condo in klcc that you bought for 1 million. Currently you are renting it out for 3,000 a month. Your earnings per year is 36,000 a year. If you were to offer 50pe, you would saying that you want to buy that condo for rm1.8 million. Would you sell your condo in klcc for 1.8 million knowing that a few years down the road you would be renting it out for rm5,000 a month? If you think about it very carefully, 10-20 years down the road do you think condos in klcc will ever be sold at 1.8 million?

PE just takes into account you buying a business only for it's earnings. How about the good will? The cash and assets? The market monopoly? The competition? The market size? The growth opportunity?

For me I value QL with 50 PE simply because it has a competitive business advantage in a very very huge market. If I was an ahlong where I can only borrow money to poor uneducated Malaysian government workers (RCECAP) my market size is small. If I were an agrigiant that can do business in Malaysia, Australia, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam etc and have the money and skills to break down the competition, my market size is massive.

That is why small penny stocks that do well but have small market size have single digit PE, while big companies that are growing internationally have higher PE.

Classic case of the mental model big fish in a small pond versus big fish in the ocean concept.

>>>>>
VenFx Only thing that puzzle me is why QL deserve at x 50 p.e. ?
Is it the quality of the future earning prospect or its biz segment family mart that lift QL's premium ?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 09:58 | Report Abuse

No one can time the market. I have tried. It doesn't. I stay away from anyone who tells you they have an algorithm that can tell you when to invest and when to sell. Especially when they can sell it to you for 5k only.

I'm sure, my results will definitely be lower than that because I invest quarterly ( which engineer has the money and foresight to throw 1 million into QL in 2000 and ride it today). All I know is I invest based on revenue, earnings and dividend growth. I usually let the share price take care of itself.

I do know that today my dividends from ql, topglove yinson far outweigh my original costs.
>>>>>>>

sich Philip,

QL, from 1.26M to 13.7M in 10 years. CAGR is 27%
Top Glove, from 1.3M to 9.2M in 9 years. CAGR is 24 %
Yinson, from 0.78M to 2.7M in 7 years. CAGR is 19%

Above CAGR based on if you invested all the cost at beginning. Since your cost was invested progressively the CAGR is higher.

Posted by VenFx > 2019-03-09 10:15 | Report Abuse

(S = Qr) Philip

Thx sir, for your reply.
Appreciate that.

Posted by lizi > 2019-03-09 10:15 | Report Abuse

agree...the most u can time is sense the market trend, and that require up to date business, economics, industry and political changes...those TA, software thingy...all come out when market is good...cari makan only...

(S = Qr) Philip No one can time the market. I have tried. It doesn't. I stay away from anyone who tells you they have an algorithm that can tell you when to invest and when to sell. Especially when they can sell it to you for 5k only.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 10:41 | Report Abuse

STNE is NYSE stock.

Posted by Beatingthestreet > 2019-03-09 10:43 | Report Abuse

Excellent article you have written.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-09 10:55 | Report Abuse

You do understand your Co's. But I sometimes feel you don't really feel the quantitative effects, esp for example the effect of the additional stores on ql, and that imho, its not enough, considering the valaution.

In any event good luck.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 11:04 | Report Abuse

Choivo, I still remember you saying you wanted to do a bet with your 10 year stock. For someone who processes to do long term investment holding, you sure don't have much confidence in your stock in performing over the long run. I'm still waiting for your stock choice Vs PCHEM over 10 years.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 11:29 | Report Abuse

If you want me to give you a deeper insight with all the CTOS information I get for maxincome SDN BHD and their protected growth rates, my deepest darkest secrets? Well, you are going to have to pay for that.

I charge you rm5000, for that full report.

And I have a full portfolio to show you my 10 year performance to prove it. Not percentage gain, but volume gain.

>>>>>>>>
You do understand your Co's. But I sometimes feel you don't really feel the quantitative effects, esp for example the effect of the additional stores on ql, and that imho, its not enough, considering the valaution.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 11:29 | Report Abuse

*projected

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 11:30 | Report Abuse

It's what you charge people to invest in RCECAP right? I think my investment in STNE alone will blow it out of the water in 5 years.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-09 11:39 | Report Abuse

this article worth 10k to me, maybe one day when the returns that much liao i will find you uncle Phillip

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-09 12:06 | Report Abuse

Uncle S=QR i going to punt into all these 4 stocks okay or not ah? Punt every quarter. Since you so confident I also very believe your capability

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 12:17 | Report Abuse

It really depends on how much you punting. If I'm being perfectly honest, if I was starting out I'd pick just one stock and go with that. Easier to monitor.

But with even more honesty, don't trust any sifu or his stock recommendations. Make your own judgement, learn and understand the business first and foremost. Build your own circle of competence.

Start from the very first basic. If you can't name the CEO of the business, don't put your money into it's stock. If you can't remember of the top of your head how much revenue it did last year and it's profits, is dividends and the book value. Definitely don't invest in it.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-09 12:29 | Report Abuse

>>>No one can time the market. I have tried. It doesn't. I stay away from anyone who tells you they have an algorithm that can tell you when to invest and when to sell. Especially when they can sell it to you for 5k only. >>>


Agree.



>>>But with even more honesty, don't trust any sifu or his stock recommendations. Make your own judgement, learn and understand the business first and foremost. Build your own circle of competence. >>>


Agree too. Good advice.

Posted by probability > 2019-03-09 12:56 | Report Abuse

good sharing Philip, thanks

Posted by PureBULL . > 2019-03-09 13:49 | Report Abuse

Dear (S = Qr) Philip ,

Now I know 4 including me in i3 r from Engine of ivy.league.of.malaya,
U, SSLEE, KCCHONGNZ n me.
SSLEE on home ground, u on the east, KCCHONG in the south n I on the north. How interesting, it's.

CEO of SPSETIA, Khor CJ was 1 yr my senior.
CEO of Mahsing, Ho HS was my classmate.
I was 2 yrs resident in 5th college n final yr in 2nd college.

Which class r u gentlemen in ?

I helped my girls writing essays to biz school here. Never know it's so competitive to get in to do just BBA. Engineering, u close 1 eye, u still get in, that easy!

From that writing I strongly believe in leadership n team spirit or 'gangsterism'.
Let's e n e = encourage n empower each other n together we can give back to this i3 community, thus impacting other people's investing life for life

WHAT say u, FRIENDS ?

Posted by Rwkl > 2019-03-09 14:35 | Report Abuse

Philip,
Once again another great article.

If only I have half your wit and wisdom..
Yes, some may say there are other ways to make money in stocks but personally I feel your way is the most proper and compelling.

Having full conviction in so few stocks is so difficult but hopefully I can pick up some pointers arising from your write ups.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 14:51 | Report Abuse

One key metric is volume investing. It is easy to get 50-60% returns in a stock. Just buy 1 lot of every small cap. At least a few of those stocks is sure to give you 100% returns in a few days. Easy to add that in your trading portfolio and do a write up and sell a subscription.

It is far harder to invest a meaningful amount of money over a much longer term without running into the dreaded margin call and cut loss.

The next time someone tells you he makes 30% in sapura or bumi armada etc, look at him and ask how much did he actually invest.

Which is why I kind of respect kyy, he puts large sums to back his investments, with margin to boot.

Posted by PureBULL . > 2019-03-09 16:43 | Report Abuse

Check me HERE:

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/post/purebull.jsp


for Right Timing CALLS, ok

Posted by Sslee > 2019-03-09 17:02 | Report Abuse

Dear all,
I like Jonathan Choi definition of wonderful company I quote, “Almost every great company that have fallen since the start of time has been due to it not being “Good for humanity”. “Good for Humanity” is as good as a moat you are ever going to get.”

It did not help when Philip said, I quote, “but the big companies will force the profit margins lower and lower, killing the small players and forcing consolidation. Business vertical efficiency tends to do that. No one ever asks KFC or Nandos if their chicken is antibiotic free or they only want to eat layhong chicken. Price per kg comes first.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNwYdjjtnYM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SMRL7-D9B8
So watch above video and understand how we mass produce food. I believe there are always a better way to produce our food in a more humane way. Perhaps someone can think out of the box and work together with Palm oil smallholder to produce free running Kampong chickens and eggs.

The Meat of the Future: How Lab-Grown Meat Is Made
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u468xY1T8fw
Meat grown in a laboratory from cultured cells is turning that vision into a reality. Several start-ups are developing lab-grown beef, pork, poultry and seafood—among them Mosa Meat, Memphis Meats, SuperMeat and Finless Foods. And the field is attracting millions in funding.-14 Sep 2018

Now Look into QL latest Q3 result:
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/351264.jsp
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENTS: % increase 31.12.2018 against last period 31.12.2017.
Revenue: 10%
Operation profit: 15%
Depreciation and amortization: 23%
Interest income: 6%
Finance costs: 31%
Share of profit of associates (net): 15%. RM 7,999,000 against RM 6,940,000
Profit Before Taxation: 9%
Profit for the period: 10%
Basic earnings per ordinary shares (sen): 11%. 10.69 against 9.62

Balance sheet:
Total Assets: RM 3,729,090,000
Inventories: 77 days. RM 618,838,000
Long term borrowings (LT Debts/Total Equity): 30%. RM 603,782,000
Total Liabilities RM 1,748,320,000

Thank you.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-03-09 17:32 | Report Abuse

sslee....u got a long long way to go before you can catch up in the investment world....a long long way indeed...10 years.....10 years enough? I also not sure since u are so stubborn.....

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 20:22 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the pertinent information SSLEE.

Do you know what the information is trying to tell you?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-03-09 20:48 | Report Abuse

sted by (S = Qr) Philip > Mar 9, 2019 02:51 PM | Report Abuse

Which is why I kind of respect kyy, he puts large sums to back his investments, with margin to boot.
========================

S = Qr

Last year, I don't know how to write it properly.....I write about sailang margin and everybody censures me, deletes my posts.........

Posted by Sslee > 2019-03-09 22:18 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
I quote your explanation on 50PE, “Imagine if you have a condo in klcc that you bought for 1 million. Currently you are renting it out for 3,000 a month. Your earnings per year is 36,000 a year. If you were to offer 50pe, you would saying that you want to buy that condo for rm1.8 million. Would you sell your condo in klcc for 1.8 million knowing that a few years down the road you would be renting it out for rm 5,000 a month? If you think about it very carefully, 10-20 years down the road do you think condos in klcc will ever be sold at 1.8 million?”

I totally disagree with your above explanation hence I just want to highlight if QL EPS is 12.71 cents financial year end 31/3/2018. Apply the growth rate of 10% and discount rate 3.5% then how many years you need to get a DCF of RM 6.79 (Closing market price on 8/3/2019)

Note: Unlike the condos in KL many of QL assets “Farm building, Boat, Plant, Machinery, Vehicle, Fitting, Work in progress, Biological assets, leases hold land, Plantation development expenditure and etc” will have zero value at end of life. Moreover QL still need to repay their increasing borrowing.

Thank you

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 23:16 | Report Abuse

So you are trying to tell me pt murni plantation lands will have zero value when you evaluate its business value(lease hold lands cannot be renewed?). Or the 2 refineries that it has once you fully amortise it's cost after 7 years it suddenly is worth nothing( fully depreciated in financial report suddenly cannot still be productive)? Or the specialist workers and management that is working to make PT murni a success is not an intangible asset when you buy the business. The wonderful organisation you helped set up, the highly trained workers and bylaws and business practise you have brought down are amortized to zero with no further value in making of murni a well run company?

Simple question for you, sslee. Malaysia depreciation for plant and equipment can be expenses out by 14% each year for tax purposes. But in reality, do you scrap and replace new palm oil refineries every 7 years? Do you just scrap your 10 ton lorries after 7 years? It do you replaced parts, upgrade machinery and keep it chugging along far beyond its assumed end of life cycle?

I think you would need to convince me further on your concept of useful life of an intangible asset (like sslee PT muni organization costs)and tangible assets (like your refinery)

In the end you need to explain to me the concept of fair value, willing buyer and willing seller. If you tell me that when I buy PT murni I need throw away refineries after 7 years ( fully depreciated) and scrap lorries after 5 years for me it doesn't really make sense.

Most refineries and plantations I know have equipment running and maintained far beyond that.

Or am I making the wrong assumptions all this while? Appreciate if you can elucidate on real life valuations versus tax accounting.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 23:28 | Report Abuse

Zero accounting value at end of life does not mean I cannot have a gain on disposal of asset, especially if it is a well run, well maintained asset in a difficult location and is still productive, no?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-09 23:52 | Report Abuse

And without knowing the future SSLee and using your current assumptions,
If you applied DCF for ql in 2009 you would have been wrong. If you applied it to TOPGLOV in 2010 based on your past data you would still be wrong. Heck, you can try to calculate your INSAS DCF in 2014, and you would have been horribly wrong. the problem with DCF is that your projections are all based on past historical data as your assumptions for the future. Investing is about making a risky bet on the future. DCF tells you nothing about risk or growth triggers.

I wonder what your DCF calculation told you about xingquan?

Don't forget when you apply DCF calculation you need to put in a terminal growth factor ( when growth stagnates), otherwise you will hit infinity and your DCF model falls apart. Not a very smart way to invest in a stock. Ql has grown for the last 20 years, how many more years of 10% growth do you foresee in your crystal ball?

Posted by popo92 > 2019-03-10 00:23 | Report Abuse

i do feel pity for those who insisted insas rather than yinson or pchem. cigarbutt investing doesn't win in long term, period.

Posted by Sslee > 2019-03-10 07:45 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Let examine:
1. Palm oil mill: How many equipment after a certain useful years of operation you need to replace with the new one because the old one keep breaking down (production interruption) and high maintenance cost. (Boiler, Steam turbine, fruit cage, sterilizer, stripper, digester, screw press, separator, cyclone, nut cracker, vacuum dryer and etc?
2. Plantation: How many years your biological assets of palm tree remain productive before you do replanting? How long your vehicles use in plantation can last? After lease hold plantation land expired how much you need to pay to renew the lease?
3. Fishing: Fishing net/gear/motor how often you replace them? Fishing boat how many years can it last before it is no more sea worthy? Refrigerator units what is the life span before it break down too often?
4. Layer poultry farming: What you do with the biological assets of egg producing chickens when they are old and unable to lay egg anymore?
5. General transportation vehicle, how many years before it become no more road worthy or incur high breakdown and maintenance cost?
6. How often the supplier of control system will tell you they no more produce/keep obsolete spare parts or maintain their old system and you have no choice but to upgrade the whole system?
7. How often your high wear and tear moving part/equipment or vessel subjected to high corrosion, erosion and pressure swing needed to be replaced during MTA?

So instead of getting mad at me and keep harping on INSAS or Xingquan, why not you tell us what is your projection of EPS growth rate and from where to justify Present Value or DCF of RM 6.79 in 10 year time.

By the way your article is top class no argument about that. (Million time better than quack quack quack’s article)I do learn something new from your article.

Thank you
P/S: This is what we do when we present project flexibility study to our boss with discount rate of 7% (interest rate is high in Indonesia) the capital payback period should not be more than 10 year otherwise it is not worth investing. (And of cause you do not stop production after 10 year and the plant shall still be productive for another 20 years)

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-10 10:18 | Report Abuse

If I were to pick up figures from the sky ( which is what DCF is all about), and use past historical figures only, my DCF calculated value for ql currently ( if no further growth triggers apply), I would be giving ql a dcf intrinsic value of rm18.65. if ql gets over the bump into the second growth challenge ( which I am confident they will do), I have an intrinsic value of rm26.47. if they perform beyond my wildest expectations and become the next Nestlé, my DCF is rm53.6. your guess is as good as mine.

I would need to earn at least 6% above( more than EPF rate), otherwise it would be unwise to invest in the future.

But SSLee you are buying a business. Not an asset. If you buy a lousy business with 1 refineries, it would not grow beyond that. But if you are buying pt murni which is one of the biggest privately owned plantations, your business will definitely grow beyond your original calculations 10 or 15 years ago.

Imagine rabbits breeding. When you first only paid for 2 pairs of rabbits, in 10 years you would have many many many pairs of rabbits, far beyond your wildest projections.

The challenge is to buy a male and female pair. After that you wait.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-10 10:29 | Report Abuse

In either case, DCF also does not take into account many things.

>>>>>
Limitations of DCF Model

A DCF model is powerful but there are limitations when applied too broadly or with bad assumptions. For example, the risk-free rate changes over time and may change over the course of a project. Changing cost of capital or expected salvage values at the end of a project can also invalidate the analysis once a project or investment has already started.

Applying DCF models to complicated projects or investments that the investor cannot control is also difficult or nearly impossible. For example, imagine an investor who wants to purchase shares in Apple Inc. (AAPL) in late 2018 and decides to use DCF to decide whether the current share price is a fair value.

This investor must make several assumptions to complete this analysis. If she uses Free Cash Flow (FCF) for the model, should she add an expected growth rate? What is the right discount rate? Are there alternatives available or should she just rely on the estimated market risk premium? How long will she hold AAPL’s stock and what will its value be at the end of that period? Unfortunately, there's a lack of consistent answers to these questions, and since she cannot access AAPL’s cash flow as a minority shareholder, the model is not helpful.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-10 10:30 | Report Abuse

Don't get me started on dividends, if you do a dcf analysis based on dividends, almost all the stocks you look at are a bad investment.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-10 10:31 | Report Abuse

Uncle S=QR, I got some extra pocket money, and I read every single annual report of QL Resources, Chairman is Chia Song Kun, can buy already lah. CEO is Mr Chia also, very confident. I will punt in QL only from now onwards, God Bless My Soul and my pocket money. Amen!

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-10 10:31 | Report Abuse

Maybe I can meet you in the AGM one day, you are my idol

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-10 10:33 | Report Abuse

I will buy Family Mart ice cream every week at least once, and eat QL eggs from today onwards, hopefully can contribute a bit more to my investment / punting (whatever you call it).

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-10 10:57 | Report Abuse

Personally, I think PCHEM would be a better buy for retirees and elders, if they are looking for a safe long term investment. It has the lowest risk Vs reward ratio in my stock portfolio.

Posted by probability > 2019-03-10 11:00 | Report Abuse

now epf started buying back pchem..cant figure out why they sell n buy back

Posted by Ayoyo > 2019-03-10 11:05 | Report Abuse

Knowledge and information will not bring riches, for if that's true, professors or PhD holders would be the richest people on the planet..

So, what determines success and to a larger extent, riches? It is the IMAGINATION - in being able to combine knowledge, information and experience into something of value

Everyone has access to the same information, annual reports, books by authors, economic reports... You can see the by-the-book forummers expounding list after list of theoretical jargons, more to confuse than convince, while the successful outlier sees an imaginative perspective not immediately apparent to the norm

And that is the hallmark of a great entrepreneur - skill, guts, instincts and creativity in making use of chaotic mess of information into structure of substance

Seeing beyond his cockiness, Phillip has this pedigree and he's earned it... Thanks for the wonderful read of your thought processes

Posted by AhHuat50 > 2019-03-10 11:26 | Report Abuse

[转贴] 尝试以不同角度看HARTA - 蛤蜊先生


2019年3月7日星期四


今年1月的时候，我曾对HARTA写过一篇文章《长期投资HARTA》？

当时候HARTA股价从高峰跌至5令吉左右，之后便反弹回5.74，之后慢慢越做越低，最近又跌回了5令吉，甚至更低至4.96。

延续先前的文章，蛤蜊认为HARTA不管是创新、效率、行业优势都具备长期投资的条件。

那今天，尝试以老板角度去计算，如果投资HARTA，会得到什么。

假设，今天我买入1000股，每股5令吉，成本价5000令吉。（5令吉容易计算）

HARTA 2019财年的每股盈利预计是15仙，也就是说，我以5000令吉收购价，买入了一个每年能够创造150令吉净利的资产，回酬每年约3%。（5000x0.15=150）作为老板，我不一定要把赚到的都拿出来，我可以把盈利存起来或投资扩充工厂。

这资产每年也会派发股息，以每年股息0.088计算，我拥有1000股，那么就可以回收88令吉。换算回酬是1.76%。这是实际回收的现金收入（88/5000×100=1.76%）

HARTA每股资产为66仙，我有1000股，也就是拥有660令吉的每股资产。这资产包括公司里的地皮、工厂、器材、存货、现金、应收账款等等。

总计，5000令吉的成本，我可以买到值660令吉的资产，这个资产每年能够创造150令吉的回酬，并且每年分红88令吉，加起来可以赚到238令吉，算起来需要21年才能回本（5000/238=21年）

作为投资者，不仅要知道买入后可以赚多少，投入的成本几时能够回本，分红多少，资产值多少，当然还有未来的增长潜力。

因为，只有进行扩充，生意越做越大，我们的回本期才会缩短，不然这盘生意就太昂贵了，不值得买。

HARTA目前有4个厂，第5间厂刚在去年投入营运。直到Q3的时候，这第5间厂只有6条生产线投入工作，还有其余6条下半年会开通。

除了这5间，还有工厂6和工厂7，大概在2020年至2021年之间，会全部投入营运，到时候一年可以生产440亿只手套。

根据2018年的年报，当时候工厂5还没投产，而工厂1至4，共32条生产线，总共可以生产320亿只手套。

320亿至440亿，两三年时间内将增长37.5%。但这是以递增的方式增长，就好像工厂是逐步投产，而不是一次过开完所有生产线。

所以预计一年的产量会增加15%左右，也就是说盈利也会增长15%。

所以就会像这样慢慢增加， 2019年 每股盈利 15仙，2020年17.25仙，2021年19.83仙，以此类推。

也意味着，以5000令吉成本换算，2020年我将可以赚172.50令吉，2021年赚198令吉。每年的分红也同步增加，2020年101.2令吉，2021年116.38。以此类推。

单看2021年，198令吉的盈利回酬，加分红116.38令吉，总收入是314.38令吉，回本期缩短至16年。（5000/314.38=15.9）

因此，只要工厂一间接一间的开，盈利跟上，那么这5000令吉的回本期将会快速缩短，甚至在未来某年，产量超过千亿只手套，每年就可以赚1000令吉或更多，到时候不仅回本，而且净赚更多。

未来，如果HARTA的买入成本越便宜，也表示我可以以更便宜的成本买入具备增长潜能的公司，回本期也会相应缩短，甚至分红可以更多。