Posted by projecti2016 > 2016-10-27 12:23 | Report Abuse

I'm waiting for 0.37 again

Posted by cutie > 2016-10-27 14:38 | Report Abuse

can buy or not??....it looks like it is moving . US dollar at 418.

Posted by Investhor > 2016-10-28 14:13 | Report Abuse

buy on dips..it will rebound..overall still uptrending

Posted by sherlock > 2016-10-28 15:09 | Report Abuse

suggest management hedge 40-50% of revenue at RM4.20,that will be perfect for future earning.

Posted by LKOH > 2016-10-29 10:11 | Report Abuse

What if USD go higher? I think the management is wary of repeating the hedging mistake..

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-11-07 15:48 | Report Abuse

dont talk abt hedges please... just common sense u will know hedge will only be offered by the banks IF the banks believe they will profit from signing the contract with you..

you want to play currency with the master of currency(the banks?) comeon...
I want to sign RM5 to 1 USD hedging contract for 2 years, who will accept? (Almost sure win contract to me, you can say, but no banks will accept)

If the banks accept your hedging contract, by common sense, it's a contract that after analyzing all risks, the banks believe they will profit from it...

Also now is strong usd period. Probability for USD rising is more, than USD falling.
(Pro USD reasons)
1) Fed rate hike in Dec
2) Oil price may fall if OPEC don't agree oil production cut in end Nov.
3) Bank negara lower interest rate.

Con USD reasons
1) Oil price increase...


1.5 months of forex above 4.16 for FY 2017, 1st Quarter now... (October up to now) if notion can just maintain status quo fundamentally, it's gonna be good already.

Posted by blackout87 > 2016-11-11 11:14 | Report Abuse

Ringgit sharp depreciation. Will notion benefit?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-11-11 11:39 | Report Abuse

This depreciation is happening at a time when notion is totally unhedged already, but will only take effect on the Q result of (October-December 16) to be announced on ~Feb 2017..

If notion don't mess it up while just maintaining existing revenue its good enough.

But most importantly, fundamentally they need to secure new customers to replace Nikon/SLR, if they can do this with the unexpected forex environment now, it'll be a super big bonus.

Time to deliver notion management...

Posted by 6055 > 2016-11-11 12:28 | Report Abuse

so this coming quarter result shouldn't be bad because the currency stand between 4.10+- for the quarter ?

Posted by sherlock > 2016-11-19 02:23 | Report Abuse

4rd q result should released by next week.but i don really expect any surprise,the turning point should fall on 1st q 2017,where hedging losses totally eliminated,stronger usd started to lift margin meaningfully and depreciation charges reduced further.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-11-19 21:33 | Report Abuse

Can expect 1-1.5 sen EPS... notion have a big variable in their 'other income'... this row sometimes can b -1m but sometimes can be +ve 6m..
Maybe even +9m for this q... very big swing..

Core business wise, qoq, HDD should recover 10-15%, SLR assume same sales, automotive same or +5% should b realistic figures to expect

Posted by blackout87 > 2016-11-20 03:32 | Report Abuse

Usd myr 4.4. Should be making money hand over fist. But notion has always had a history of nasty surprises

Posted by sherlock > 2016-11-20 04:34 | Report Abuse

the big variable mostly come from forex change,so should be quite positive in 4rd q since usd is stronger,but last portion of realized hedging losses(estimated at RM4-5m) and inventories write off should continue to drag bottom line,unless their are able to write back some items(like disposal of scrap metal),or improve sales performance.

by the way,based on last quarter trend,HDD segment unlikely to rebound meaningfully,the only hopes fall onto automotive division which own fair chance to achieve growth.net cash position should improve further if not mistaken.

Posted by sherlock > 2016-11-20 04:38 | Report Abuse

the company set up a new subsidaries recently,probably related to the plan of set up a new plant at johor,waiting for more details.

Posted by naaim207 > 2016-11-23 07:11 | Report Abuse

result still not out yet?

Posted by sherlock > 2016-11-23 14:15 | Report Abuse

should come out this week,but don speculate,be prudent.if result is good,then not too late to buy since next quarter will be even good as usd keep appreciate,but if result is not good,the we can buy on dip since coming results is expected to rebound.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-11-23 18:26 | Report Abuse

good advice :) while they 'should' be profitable this q.. aih there's always this risk that they have something crazy happening.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-11-23 19:33 | Report Abuse

IF, just IF they don't mess it up this Q's result (just a reasonable figure of at least 1 sen EPS) + next Q result is mostly gonna be great just from the confirmed forex exchange rates of October, up to end of November. Getting these 2 q results in a row will be explosive for notion

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-11-24 18:55 | Report Abuse

:) 1.73 cent EPS this Q, with 1 cent dividend :) :)

Posted by 6055 > 2016-11-24 19:08 | Report Abuse

excellent results, next coming quarters even better... :)

Posted by KL_82 > 2016-11-24 21:28 | Report Abuse

Shhh.. buy quietly..

Posted by sherlock > 2016-11-24 21:44 | Report Abuse

nice,above expectation indeed,but what make me even excited was their are going to started new plant at johor by next month(initially i though will only happen by 2nd half 2017),that is very crucial to enhance mid-to-long term growth,and further diversify into non-HDD segment.

notion v-tec,welcome back!

Posted by sherlock > 2016-11-24 21:53 | Report Abuse

even after deducted RM2.8m inventory write-off and RM3.5m plant and machinery write-off,still able to achieve RM4.6m NP,really impressed.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-11-25 10:12 | Report Abuse

Quite conservative TP upgrade for Notion from Kng... as expected, it needs another Q result to come in at 1.5+eps. After which, i'll be surprised if TP it not at least 60-70 cents.

Posted by tah16600 > 2016-11-25 10:31 | Report Abuse

After so long waiting, now only start to move up

Posted by 6055 > 2016-11-28 17:25 | Report Abuse

ceo also bought notion's share. uptrend onward..^^

Posted by blackout87 > 2016-12-01 15:39 | Report Abuse

Inventory write off for 3 years straight. I'm wondering if they will ever fix their operational issues.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-12-02 16:29 | Report Abuse

They say this is from their HDD business which is very strict with the measurement/qc requirement. assuming 100m from HDD sales per year, 9.3m writeoff is about 10% of their total HDD sales d.. quite significant figure i must say.

Important thing now is 2
1) The impact of USD to notion's revenue in the 1st Q FY2017 results. We have already confirmed from OCT-NOV confirmed very good forex. And starting now DEC, it's still at 4.40+
2) While forex may come and go... what I was really waiting for the MOST is operationally they increased their revenue and reduce idle unused machines. They took loan, invested a lot in CNC machine on SLR business expansion... and when the SLR business is gone, the excess depreciation really hit the rest of the business's margins.
With the new factories (52000 sq feet in total) we could be seeing overall machine utilization at 90+% this will be a VERY VERY important milestone. And I'd really like to see how's the next Q result is gonna be. If the new customer is able to provide the sales volume, notion can then be in a position to choose to reduce HDD sales which is very hard to meet in terms of QC wise.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-12-02 16:36 | Report Abuse

One thing which I don't like about notion is, i believe they're very picky in choosing their customer, and they were very slow in getting business for the unused machines. Hopefully, now that they've finally identified a customer/partner, it's going to be a win win situation for both Notion and their new customer.

At 90%++ machine utilization, the revenue and EPS will hopefully hit 2.5c++

Posted by tah16600 > 2016-12-06 12:38 | Report Abuse

Turnaround stock, right timing to buy

Posted by cutie > 2016-12-07 21:27 | Report Abuse

how about .....Bank Negara Malaysia’s new measures to enhance the liquidity in the foreign exchange market, to stabilise the declining ringgit?

Posted by cutie > 2016-12-07 21:27 | Report Abuse

ANY EFFECT ?

Posted by sherlock > 2016-12-07 23:12 | Report Abuse

i think is neutral if not slightly negative,since exporter are forced to convert 75% of expert earning into ringgit,capital flexibility will reduce following the new rules,but of course it will not impact NOTION's profitability since BNM still allow exporter to held 25% earning in dollar term,to hedge against any USD cost.

generally,notion will still benefited when USD appreciated.

Posted by blacksnake > 2016-12-08 11:05 | Report Abuse

no volume........ how can buy......... waiting the volume and players come in first............ hihihihi

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-12-11 21:58 | Report Abuse

u wait volume, it will be too late when u c it

Posted by naaim207 > 2016-12-14 09:03 | Report Abuse

seem not many interested in this counter despite good result & paying dividend

Posted by master_tan > 2016-12-14 09:05 | Report Abuse

now is time to quietly buy and hold, wait for more dividend.

Posted by sherlock > 2016-12-15 05:07 | Report Abuse

fed rise rate.stronger usd,stronger notion.

Posted by naaim207 > 2016-12-16 09:18 | Report Abuse

but, nobody interested in this counter

Posted by sherlock > 2016-12-16 16:46 | Report Abuse

only matter of time.

Posted by tah16600 > 2016-12-20 11:31 | Report Abuse

Those who bought on the 6/12/16 now can laugh all d way to bank

Posted by blacksnake > 2016-12-20 14:53 | Report Abuse

No more power?? Hihihi

Posted by tah16600 > 2016-12-21 12:46 | Report Abuse

Resting before going up

Posted by naaim207 > 2016-12-22 16:06 | Report Abuse

resting or dead already?

Posted by tah16600 > 2016-12-23 15:24 | Report Abuse

Uptrend continue

Posted by blacksnake > 2016-12-23 16:42 | Report Abuse

break 0.435 first then next move will be 0.47........ 0.01 dividend already ex.........

Posted by wannabeinvestor > 2016-12-28 10:36 | Report Abuse

soon institutional investors will join the crowd hehe

Posted by wannabeinvestor > 2017-01-03 10:41 | Report Abuse

lets make some noise! break .5 NOTION!

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-01-03 14:13 | Report Abuse

product mix for Q4FY2016 was HDD: Camera: Industrial/Automotive of 49%: 21%: 30%

Posted by Vivian Hee > 2017-01-03 16:46 | Report Abuse

1 of the sinchew stock picks http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1590052/%E6%8E%A8%E9%80%895%E6%96%B0%E4%B8%BB%E5%8A%9B%E8%82%A1%EF%BC%8E%E5%BE%81%E6%88%982017-4%E8%BF%9E%E8%83%9C