Posted by king36 > 2019-12-14 20:23 | Report Abuse

Posted by 888next > Dec 10, 2019 8:32 PM | Report Abuse
Hi king36

That batch of ESOS was timed in Dec 2017 few months after the fire and the share price was around 50 sen. The effect during that time would not have affect stock price then

Whenever co issues ESOS there is a marked to market future cost to the co that straight away affects the qtr s P & L so we very careful and until the financials of the co is fully back to strength, it's unlikely more ESOS will be issued.

Thank you 888next. I will keep monitoring. I don’t like ESOS which only dilutes the shares and brings down EPS. When the business is good, nobody will object to ESOS to the staff.

What’s IR representative? Anybody pls.

I look at the EPS Notion is 2.27, Dufu 16.87, JCY -2.57. I think it will take some time and quite an effort for Notion to move up to half of Dufu’s value.

Yes, be careful not to chase it too high. Further there is d spectra of 2020 recession in USA which may affect the business too.

Anyway we all wish Notion well especially after the fire and we all not like to see any unpleasant happening again.
Good Luck.

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-14 22:06 | Report Abuse

Hi 888next, from the calculator, Stock Price refer to warrant or mother price? And what is the meaning of annualized volatility?

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-14 22:34 | Report Abuse

Its a good opportunity to learn something from you if u willing to share with real experience haha, i looked through wiki investopedia and it was too formula-explanation and i dont really get it, gonna take some time to understand

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-14 23:56 | Report Abuse

i personally preferred gearing/premium and the fundamental of mother share, without the fundamental support the warrant price are not sustainable.

past 1 month the premium % of WC had reduced from 60+% to now only 45%, i think that is a good sign?

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-15 08:58 | Report Abuse

My calculation is on conservative 1; Premium gap must getting closer to 0% as when mother price increasing. Initial premium was already set by market so i do not judge on that.

Use notion as example, since maturity date is 3 years away and current premium is 45%, so 20%~35% is ideal percentage for me. (This is my personal distinct figure with only logic is premium should closer to 0%)

I anticipate that with the boost of interest from funds and fundamental improvement, Notion price will up to around RM1.40 in another 2 quarters;
1.40 + 20% = 1.68
1.68 - 0.84 = 0.84
If premium 30% = 0.98
If premium 35% = 1.05

The main impact to the warrant price is the mother share price based on my above calculation

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-15 13:19 | Report Abuse

Thank you and hope Notion will perform at its best and benefits all the shareholders.

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-15 14:32 | Report Abuse

Yeah when i do my calculation write up earlier, i figure out the logic was somewhat similar to BS, thus will give it a try later when im free

Posted by Investar2862 > 2019-12-15 16:43 | Report Abuse

Good advice from @888next ... "Anybody who don't know this, my advice don't trade warrants"

The reward from warrants can look very tempting (higher) due to the leveraging factor, but so is the risk involved...so beware!

Remember to work on your competencies before venturing into higher risk "game". Only buy warrant if you're familiar with the "rules of the game" - Tips: only use it on strong uptrend stock!

Take a look at the recent the recent movements of NOTION, from 20th November to 29th November,
Mother: from high of 1.02 to low of 0.810 = dropped 0.210 (20.6%)
WC: from high of 0.69 to low of 0.435 = dropped 0.255 (36.9%)



Posted by 888next > Dec 14, 2019 11:32 PM | Report Abuse

Play with a different volatility and time to expiry it's just a methodology

Anybody who don't know this, my advice don't trade warrants

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-15 18:45 | Report Abuse

I believe there will be more opportunities ahead, only that it takes time.

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-16 07:37 | Report Abuse

That was a huge buy call, and i wonder who are the ‘famous investor’, sounds like the writer himself lol. Company has intention to do bonus issue?

Posted by piepiehero > 2019-12-16 07:42 | Report Abuse

P.I.E will be next bullish frontkn, the product and service demand increase enormously, staytune next qr

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PiePie/247812.jsp

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-16 09:48 | Report Abuse

I think the liquidity is already high now, not necessary do bonus issue in my opinion even though market really loves bonus issue, perhaps only after share price is high then can consider.

Posted by Michael Kwok > 2019-12-16 19:39 | Report Abuse

So late then u say.Dear.If its on the 60-70 over cent I salute u.Like Calvineng or KYY or me or other.No fun.

Posted by michaelwong > 2019-12-16 20:08 | Report Abuse

Look like with today well supported price buying and selling bids closing , 2morrow would positively reach higher abit in terms of pricing .

Posted by George Leong > 2019-12-16 21:19 | Report Abuse

"For the coming quarters starting with Q1FY2020, we expect the contribution from the EMS sector to increase steadily and also contributions from other segments. We target sales revenue of RM320 mil in FY2020. We expect further growth in FY2021 with targeted sales of above RM400 mil annual sales mainly from the fabrication business. These figures have not been audited and are internal management targets.

With better economies of scale, we hope the targeted 7.5% to 9% PAT margin and EBITDA 20% margin will be achieved as a result of the Group’s move into precision fabricated machined metal parts in the EMS sector. This is a strategic move, away from being a 100% machined parts manufacturer, which will help generate more sales per ringgit invested in capital expenditure."

The report mentioned 7.5% to 9% PAT, based on rm320 mil sales revenue target, that's equivalent to rm24 mil to rm28.8 mil PAT. Let's take rm28 mil as profits, Notion will have rm0.084 EPS. That's PE 12 at current trading level.

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-16 21:32 | Report Abuse

Management is growing HDD and automobile segment at the same time, so i guess that 320m is conservative figure, perhaps may have a little more than that

And i wouldnt use 9% as calculation, better be conservative than optimistic. 8% is safe percentage.

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-16 21:34 | Report Abuse

Michael Kwok, what if 2 months passed and share price stands at 1.30, will you say the same?

Posted by Investar2862 > 2019-12-17 07:33 | Report Abuse

GEORGE TOWN: FoundPac Group Bhd plans to produce parts for the automotive industry next year.

Group managing director Ong Cheng Hoon said the group had installed a new production line to manufacture critical automotive parts.

“We expect to get the certification in the first half of 2020 and start commercial production in the second half. We have also the automotive part manufacturing licence from the Malaysian Investment Development Authority. These are parts used in, for example, the gear-box of an automobile.

“FoundPac has vast experience in manufacturing precision machining parts, ” he told StarBiz.

MY Concern....
Is FPGROUP a direct or indirect competitor to NOTION in precision machining parts?

Posted by Investar2862 > 2019-12-17 08:48 | Report Abuse

I own more NOTION than FPGROUP :D)

Posted by ccy123 > 2019-12-17 09:05 | Report Abuse

George, all this are just internal management target. The six million question is can they achieve it. up to you to believe

Posted by Red Tulip > 2019-12-17 11:35 | Report Abuse

Why is it so hard for this counter to break the resistance?

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-17 14:35 | Report Abuse

Coming quarter’s report is crucial for Notion to show public that they are transforming and is generating profit from EMS

Posted by trading2019 > 2019-12-17 14:58 | Report Abuse

Goreng, goreng, goreng.

Posted by Jengacam2 > 2019-12-17 15:34 | Report Abuse

many ppl wan fast money but dunno this share already up 100% in 2 month .. funny betul...study la

Posted by aikinlai > 2019-12-17 15:38 | Report Abuse

Another speculation n manipulation price by syndicate.. this kind of so call article just for the syndicate to cash out for fast money....
Malaysia stock .. 90% of them is used for goreng.

Posted by trading2019 > 2019-12-17 15:39 | Report Abuse

So many newbies kena trapped.

Posted by trading2019 > 2019-12-17 15:43 | Report Abuse

It will never break because there is no catalyst for it to do so.

Posted by Red Tulip > Dec 17, 2019 11:35 AM | Report Abuse

Why is it so hard for this counter to break the resistance?

Posted by Jengacam2 > 2019-12-17 15:47 | Report Abuse

like Serbak warrant, all chase high but dunno is over value 50% premium... Pity those chase high

Posted by aikinlai > 2019-12-17 15:56 | Report Abuse

Growth stock for true value can only find in US n HK stock coz is difficult manipulated as vol n price too great to do so. Although i have notion ...but sadly to say once those syndicate in....screw up hell everything.

Posted by tigerball > 2019-12-17 16:15 | Report Abuse

aikinlai Another speculation n manipulation price by syndicate.. this kind of so call article just for the syndicate to cash out for fast money....
Malaysia stock .. 90% of them is used for goreng.
--------------------
hahaha laugh die me

which stock not goreng up by syndicate ??

Posted by dick20 > 2019-12-17 16:16 | Report Abuse

very tough going. bring up the price to 1.00 but now 97 sen only.

Posted by dick20 > 2019-12-17 16:25 | Report Abuse

where is the super investor?

Posted by Red Tulip > 2019-12-17 16:47 | Report Abuse

Tested 1.02 resistance 5 times.

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-17 16:48 | Report Abuse

Wow here comes the impatient group of ‘investor’

Posted by Red Tulip > 2019-12-17 16:53 | Report Abuse

Yet to invest. Will only invest if the price opens above 1.02.

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-17 16:54 | Report Abuse

Watching the stock for any business update, otherwise wait for financial report to tell again

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-17 16:58 | Report Abuse

watch first. Let volume and price start the move.

Posted by aikinlai > 2019-12-17 17:19 | Report Abuse

Tigerball...read the statement....can operator goreng US stock...hahahahaha.....

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-12-17 19:17 | Report Abuse

888next may i knw what is the net profit margin % the management expect frm the operating activity going forward ?

Posted by setia2u > 2019-12-17 19:39 | Report Abuse

Don't be confused!!! Up and down in share price is just a norm of market. People who trades in market always think that he is the smartest at that moment for his decision to buy or sell BUT market is always RIGHT!!! The problem with some investors is that they cannot accept the fact that the price is down today, WHY??? Think, if not because of the price down today, can it be UP tomorrow? There is no way that the share price keeps going up everyday. When people wants to take profit, that's their choice and that's the opportunity for those who wants to buy cheaper. To me, once the company's bottom improved and start to show good profits, the price will rightly reflect the true value.

Posted by setia2u > 2019-12-17 19:47 | Report Abuse

财富=反向+成长+时间 (Wealth = contrarian + growth + time)

An investment wisdom by our famous investment guru Mr. Cold Eye. By the way, contrarian here doesn't mean doing contra trading.

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-17 19:55 | Report Abuse

I dont know how much is fair value for Notion, but I wouldn’t mind to hold and accumulate while share price drop. 2 and a half month to go until next report.

Posted by Siah Kim Meng > 2019-12-17 20:35 | Report Abuse

hi 888next, do you mind to share that what are the potential risks that might hinder notion from achieving its targeted revenue (320 mil) and targeted profit margin in 2020?

Posted by Wudishijimo > 2019-12-17 21:20 | Report Abuse

Hi 888next, when there are more retail investors come to the forum, the similar question will pop out over again and again for sure, u had provided sufficient information already, any others i hope u can continue update in IR library. Thanks.

It was a great learning from you and hope got opportunity to have other discussion with u again.

Posted by setia2u > 2019-12-17 21:54 | Report Abuse

Agree with Wudishijimo. Great sharing from 888next. Judging from the comments posted in this platform recently, good that 888next takes a break from this forum. Hope to see you in coming AGM. Good bye.

Posted by ionlywanttoearn > 2019-12-17 21:55 | Report Abuse

Yup
Glad to read all the comments and see the slides u uploaded all over
Retailer will always be retailers
Learn to be institutions to earn the biggest chunks of wealth

Posted by Alistino G > 2019-12-17 23:51 | Report Abuse

May I share a joke about investing in the market that I read in Investopedia 20-30 years ago.
Accordingly, there are 4 animals in the Market Farm. They are # Bull, # Bear (we all are familiar) but with their Guests, Pig and Chicken. Yes, we recognised the Bull and Bear make money and also lose money. The # Pig would always lose money because they do not do their homework but listen to remorse/hear say when deciding their investment and later, end up on the dining table to be feast by others. While Bull & Bear make money and the Pig loses all the time, the # Chicken never lose because they would go around the whole Investing village making noise but never put a sen in investing; so, they never make money as well.

Posted by Alistino G > 2019-12-18 00:06 | Report Abuse

On serious note, I first boarded Notion ship in 2013…. And would continue to sail in it.

Posted by Celestialb > 2019-12-18 09:03 | Report Abuse

@888next, i hope you can continue to update here. Just ignore the stupid comment. There are day traders and syndicate here. Why give a care about them. Focus on real investors.

Posted by Celestialb > 2019-12-18 09:06 | Report Abuse

On another note, i think your profit guidance are too prudent. Given the product mix, your blended margin should be a lot higher! Hope you can come back on this.