Posted by ngjack1991 > 2022-06-02 18:01 | Report Abuse

Lol never underestimate old man. Who know he aware his article got opposite effect so he write and collect? It is also possible that he is truly dumb and not aware what effect his article bring after such a long time. Anyway don't ever listen to anyone comment for sell & buy decision and make own judgment. No people so nice do charity to advise people how to earn and lost lesser out of goodwill. Mainly got their own intention, especially on this kind of forum.

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2022-06-02 18:04 | Report Abuse

Commentaries are commentaries, if one dexide to follow it one has no one to blame but oneself, there are more dishonest people out there than honest ones so what so u expect, importantly do ur homework, access ur risk apetite so as to know what counters to stay away from, and never blame anyone else for ur decision, after all did kyy put a gun to ur head and ask to buy... but I'm sure some have benefitted from kyy using reverse psychology methods and being 1 step ahead of his predicted advices... Happy hunting

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-02 18:06 | Report Abuse

Just try our best looo

Posted by ngjack1991 > 2022-06-02 18:09 | Report Abuse

Reality is those earn a lot from market won't even bother to wasting time look at the forum and comment. Sadly I am not one of them so here I am, look at the forum and comment

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-02 18:15 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-02 18:36 | Report Abuse

Yeah yeah qqq333 we have to wait loo

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-02 18:48 | Report Abuse

I feel like leaving this forum as Dont know where to earn money liau…this one also everybody excluding me lar…Sad

Posted by steven223838 > 2022-06-02 18:48 | Report Abuse

sifu has spoken .buy petron dump hengyuan.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-02 19:16 | Report Abuse

Do you know tradinf heng yuan shares costs me 2 days of work…really lousy counter

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-02 19:17 | Report Abuse

I am sure that trading petron also the same as klci index going down

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-02 19:17 | Report Abuse

Celaka

Posted by brian3381 > 2022-06-02 19:25 | Report Abuse

as i said never enticed by the so called sifu with their kindergarden calculation or fancy long report. all useleeesss ma when hy in reality cant perform... just switch to petron, ok.

Posted by hengpetron > 2022-06-02 19:34 | Report Abuse

xrp army keep saying sell btc and buy xrp.
This how pea brain thinking

Posted by gladiator > 2022-06-02 19:45 | Report Abuse

Don't be so happy switch to petron, if kyy suddenly come out article "why petron is the best stock to buy now" Petron will instant panic sell.

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-06-02 19:54 | Report Abuse

No sifu here la. All big cannons ok

Posted by probability > 2022-06-02 20:31 | Report Abuse

For everyone's reading pleasure:

How hedging for refining margin causes derivative loss / gain: HENGYUAN

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-06-02-story-h1624195575-How_hedging_for_refining_margin_causes_derivative_loss_gain_HENGYUAN.jsp

You need to ENLARGE the page to see the details. TQ

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-02 20:43 | Report Abuse

Let me tell you although i am making money but heng yuan is too volatile for me!!

Posted by eagerinvestor > 2022-06-02 21:00 | Report Abuse

wow thanks for your effort probability

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-06-02 21:12 | Report Abuse

@lai3bu I don’t think that will repeat again. They should cater for this type of situation now. Or else the whole team need to be fired off.

Posted by probability > 2022-06-02 21:19 | Report Abuse

If you get the mechanism presented, you would be able to estimate Q2 22' yourself.

You just need to put in the sales figure for refined oil and cost for crude looking at the crack spread chart and brent historical pricing.

Q2 22 its going to be explosive.

Posted by lai3bu > Jun 2, 2022 9:02 PM | Report Abuse

Probability- the fear is Q2 again they screw up with derivative loss despite good gross profit . What is your assessment ?

Posted by stockwin > 2022-06-02 21:20 | Report Abuse

probability

For everyone's reading pleasure:

How hedging for refining margin causes derivative loss / gain: HENGYUAN


=================================================================
Thank you Probability.
Does that mean the RM432 M Fair value loss on derivatives in Q1 2022 just a book entry and will be reversed in future qtrs? tq

Posted by gladiator > 2022-06-02 21:23 | Report Abuse

Yes I want to know too. Tq

Posted by probability > 2022-06-02 21:28 | Report Abuse

If the spike in the refining margin we see now never comes down to Q1 level, then it will never get reversed.

But the moment the current spike in margin stabilizes, the PAT will match the expected gross margin from the already spiked crack spread we are seeing.

When the margin drops suddenly say in the future, then we have hedging gain to cushion the drop or even show higher margin than the reduced crack.

The maths are clearly shown on the table.

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-06-02-story-h1624195575-How_hedging_for_refining_margin_causes_derivative_loss_gain_HENGYUAN.jsp

We just look forward for stability now.


Posted by stockwin > Jun 2, 2022 9:20 PM | Report Abuse

probability

For everyone's reading pleasure:

How hedging for refining margin causes derivative loss / gain: HENGYUAN


=================================================================
Thank you Probability.
Does that mean the RM432 M Fair value loss on derivatives in Q1 2022 just a book entry and will be reversed in future qtrs? tq

Posted by blackgold77 > 2022-06-02 21:56 | Report Abuse

whoa kyy actually deleted his post? lmao

Posted by brian3381 > 2022-06-02 22:01 | Report Abuse

Posted by gladiator > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Don't be so happy switch to petron, if kyy suddenly come out article "why petron is the best stock to buy now" Petron will instant panic sell.

Dun wory, kyy wont and dun buy petron cos not very liquid like hy. He cant do trading. Hard for him to buy sell

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-02 22:02 | Report Abuse

Blackgold means he ask everybody to eat themselves looo

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-02 22:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by James Ng > 2022-06-02 22:06 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/2022-06-02-story-h1624196386.jsp
[转贴] [Video:浅谈HENGYUAN REFINING COMPANY BERHAD, HENGYUAN, 4324] - James的股票投资James Share Investing

Posted by brian3381 > 2022-06-02 22:08 | Report Abuse

He wont buy petron. I can guarantee. He like those counters with high volume n big swing so that can trap newbies. Low volume counter like petron he wont touch

Posted by TraderAlways > 2022-06-02 22:33 | Report Abuse

brian3381. He bought subur also low volume lar.

Posted by thumxj > 2022-06-02 22:38 | Report Abuse

Thanks for your sharing, @probability.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-02 22:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-06-02 23:13 | Report Abuse

Leave petron alone la. He can go after genting but just leave petron alone.

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-06-02 23:14 | Report Abuse

Thanks probability for your contribution

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-02 23:31 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-02 23:35 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-06-02 23:43 | Report Abuse

Improved version to see the table much easily:

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-06-02-story-h1624195575-How_hedging_for_refining_margin_causes_derivative_loss_gain_HENGYUAN.jsp

Posted by Sslee > 2022-06-03 00:30 | Report Abuse

In term of profitability vis-a vis crack spread :
Petron's NPAT :
Q12022 - RM106.4 mil ,
2021 - RM238.5 mil ,
2020 - (13.3 mil)
HY's NPAT :
Q12022 - RM 47.5 mil,
2021 - RM83 mil ,
2020 - RM251 mil
Avg crack spread :
Q12022 - about USd14 ,
2021 -about USD8.3 ,
2020 -aboutUSD1.70

Hengyuan have a bigger capacity refinery and should benefit more when crack spread go up. If you look into Hengyuan P&L statement you should notice other operating (losses)/gains
2021 loss of RM 551,965,000
2020 gain of RM 308,121,000
This losses/gains are mostly from derivatives.

Hence when 2020 crack spread was USD 1.70, Hengyuan NPAT RM 251 million but Petronm negative RM 13.3 million.
And in 2021 crack spread was USD 8.3, Hengyuan NPAT RM 83 million wherease Petronm RM 238.5 million.

So you can make an estimate what will be Petronm NPAT if crack spread still above USD 20+ till end of year 2022?

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-03 03:00 | Report Abuse

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-private-refiners-profit-cheap-russian-crude-state-refiners-suffer-2022-06-01/

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-03 06:12 | Report Abuse

In case someone missed kyy's removed post, just not able to copy the chart.... lol

Hengyuan will hit a new record - Koon Yew Yin

Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Wed, 01 Jun 2022, 07:06 PM
Hengyuan reported reduced profit of 15.82 sen EPS for 1st quarter ending March and 59.9 sen EPS for its previous quarter ending December 2021. The reasons are 1) Inventories written down Rm 131.5 million.

2) Rm 432.2 million loss from forward sales of derivatives or refined products.

The company did not expect Russia to invade Ukraine during the 1st quarter, on 24 February and sold forward some refined oil products. Moreover, the company did not expect crude oil price to shoot up higher and higher so rapidly as shown on the chart below. In fact, there is no reason to write down the value of the inventories because crude oil price is shooting up higher and higher.





Due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the prices for almost all commodities especially petroleum products have shot up. Russia is the 3rd largest petroleum producer in the world. NATO countries including US have imposed economic sanctions on Russia. They have been buying Russian oil before and now they are trying to find alternative supply source. The British PM Boris Johnson went to the Middle East to plead with the Sultans to increase oil production. They refused to comply because they also want to gain more profit. As a result, the price of WTI Crude Oil price has been going higher and higher as shown on the chart above.





In this situation, oil producers can increase production to make more profit. But oil refineries just cannot pump faster to refine more oil. As a result, the Brent Crack Spread profit margin has been increasing rapidly in the last few months as shown on the chart above.

A crack spread is the overall pricing difference between a barrel of crude oil and the petroleum products refined from it. Refined products are various grades of petrol, gas, fertilizers and many other chemicals.

Hengyuan’s profit solely depends on Brent Crack Spread margin of profit.

Projected Q2 2022 PAT and EPS

I take the inventory value of Q1 2022 to be assumed as 1 month inventory.

The average price gain in Q2 = USD6.50.

Inventory gain from increase of Brent crude oil price= 2679.2 * 3 * USD6.5 = USD52.2 million.
Assume 1 USD= RM4.38, inventory gain = RM228.6 million.
Average crack spread for Q2 2022 = USD24.2
Profit margin = (10.6 million* USD24.2) - manufacturing & administrative expenses and finance cost
Manufacturing & administrative expenses and finance cost = -RM84.8 million

Profit margin = USD256.52 * 4.38 = RM1123.6 million - RM84.8 million = RM1038.8 million

Assume derivative financial liabilities = 161.1 - 568.4 = -407.3 million

Profit before tax = RM228.6 + 1038.8 - 407.3 = RM860.1 million

Income tax = (860.1*24%) million = 206.4 million

PAT = RM653.7 million
Number of shares = 300 million
EPS = 2.18



Investors should be wait patiently for the announcement of the 2nd quarter ending June. I expect Hengyuan to break its old record price of Rm 18.50 established in Jan 2018 when the Crack Spread was below 10 as shown on the long term Brent Crack Spread chart below.





Comparison of the 2 listed oil refineries in Malaysia.

Petron Refinery capacity is 88,000 barrels a day and Hengyuan Refinery capacity is 120,000 barrels a day.

Petron just reported 39.4 sen EPS for its 1st quarter ending march. Previous quarter ending December its EPS was 22.4 sen, an increase of 76%.

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-03 06:37 | Report Abuse

Kyy now a symbol of Ting Hai effect (丁蟹效应)? Don't be superstitious la

Posted by brian3381 > 2022-06-03 07:01 | Report Abuse

as i said never enticed by the so called sifu with their kindergarden calculation or fancy long report. all useleeesss ma when hy in reality cant perform... just switch to petron, ok.

Posted by aleroe > 2022-06-03 07:02 | Report Abuse

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

Crack spread has reached new high — 32.8

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-03 07:16 | Report Abuse

lolzzz.... regardless how you promote Petron, HengYuan will have a bigger gain than Petron. =D

Posted by stockraider > 2022-06-03 07:35 | Report Abuse

What is the key diff in ownership & management between Petron V Hengyuan leh ?
Petron reward its shareholders by distributing reasonable dividend whereas Hengyuan siphoned cash & profit for its own profit mah!

In other words even if Hengyuan going to make good profits, they are not going to share any with u loh!

On the other hand, u can rely on Petron for its good corporate governance mah!
And right now Petron is actually making more monies than hengyuan loh!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by brian3381 > 2022-06-03 07:43 | Report Abuse

new high — 32.8


888STOCK888

1,030 posts

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 26 minutes ago | Report Abuse

lolzzz.... regardless how you promote Petron, HengYuan will have a bigger gain than Petron. =D

Never mind, continue stagnant with ur hy. Ok!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-06-03 07:56 | Report Abuse

Remember u have much more dependable profit in Petron than hengyuan loh!

Crack Spread high at above 30 will benefit Petron & hengyuan loh!

But u can only trust and have confidence that Petron will reward u mah!
Posted by stockraider > 17 minutes ago | Report Abuse

What is the key diff in ownership & management between Petron V Hengyuan leh ?
Petron reward its shareholders by distributing reasonable dividend whereas Hengyuan siphoned cash & profit for its own profit mah!

In other words even if Hengyuan going to make good profits, they are not going to share any with u loh!

On the other hand, u can rely on Petron for its good corporate governance mah!
And right now Petron is actually making more monies than hengyuan loh!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by paperplane > 2022-06-03 08:01 | Report Abuse

MANY SELF-CLAIMED "GURU", "SIFU" gonna tell ppl to ALL-IN soon......sad market we have here. all tak ada otak, blindly follow only

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-03 08:04 | Report Abuse

The higher crack spread go in Q2 means higher hedging losses and lower nett profit On the contrary, HY’s derivative gain will be explosive when crack spread collapse. That is on the assumption that HY’s hedging policy remain unchanged throughout. You will notice this scenerio in Q12022, FY2021 and FY2020 results.

Posted by ngjack1991 > 2022-06-03 08:17 | Report Abuse

Nonstop promoting other counter in different forum. If you guys are that confident in petronm why not slowly collecting. It is so obvious is to push the price up. It's kind of annoying yet repeat again again and again with different account same wording.
Do you know that over promote can have opposite effect?