Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-03 14:56 | Report Abuse

Oredi grab malaysia long time ago

Posted by nicholas99 > 2022-06-03 15:03 | Report Abuse

Not najib fault. China is too big. Eventually also will grab. Matter of time.

Posted by nicholas99 > 2022-06-03 15:03 | Report Abuse

And our politician all makan. So, have to plug hole.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-03 15:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by brian3381 > 2022-06-03 15:07 | Report Abuse

nanti selling will intensified ma.... just switch to petron loh

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-03 15:16 | Report Abuse

It will intensify soon as so many retailers left

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-03 15:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-06-03 15:20 | Report Abuse

saw d lowest price traded was 5.95 on 31/05/22!

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-06-03 15:23 | Report Abuse

post QR will definitely drop

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-03 15:38 | Report Abuse

Sure go rm5…looks like subwayzz and me own the forum

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-03 15:41 | Report Abuse

All the warrant will drop to 5 cents or 24 cents kaka

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-03 15:48 | Report Abuse

People are selling Petron and switch to HengYuan~ =D

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-06-03 15:48 | Report Abuse

hope remains at this level ok already then i can play rangebound

Posted by genuine_investor > 2022-06-03 15:50 | Report Abuse

Honestly, all warrants issued by Its should be banned as they are akin to gambling.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-03 16:03 | Report Abuse

Both side also got cheer leaders

Posted by Rabbit2 > 2022-06-03 16:14 | Report Abuse

@OTB
We will only know the MTM derivative position by end of June 2022. Same happen to how much we will have our capital gain in Q2'22.
Anyway, my understanding is as below:
1) HRC entered into refining margin swap contracts for a period of 1 - 33 mths since Dec 2021 (2020: 1 - 12 mths) comparing to Petron which is still less 12 months. This explain the volatility of HRC book due to longer duration.
2) All derivatives entered by both companies are hedging in nature i.e. no speculative contracts.
3) The MTM loss from the derivatives consist of 2 parts
- Spot element: losses will offset with actual margin gain
- Forward point element: losses will eventually reset to zero when maturity (and this is the element much driven by demand and supply i.e. how many short buyers vs how many long buyers)
4) For the spot element, it should not be a concern as an investor as this is merely for hedging purpose.
5) For the forward point element it is also not a concern as we know the losses will eventually reversed, just a matter of time knowing as their hedging period has been extended 1-33 months i.e. longer duration.
6) What I know is that this forward point element will continue to create volatility in the p&l year on year until the maturity. In fact, HRC profit has been volatile all these years comparing to Petron due to different hedging strategy.
7) Both companies will continue to enter into hedging derivatives regardless of crack spread is in the higher end or lower end, as long as the margin is positive and giving them protection.
8) I wouldn't sure whether their hedging is 25% of output or 50% of output. If 25%, 75% true profit margin shall be reflected in their results.
9) Due to structural refineries issue, layman will go for HRC with higher capacity for greater benefit i.e. how much you can produce will definitely translated into how much you can earn (similar to top glove).
9) For long term investors, both companies work well for capital gain based on current market environment.
10) For traders, HRC fare better than Petron due to liquidity of the shares just if you minus out the shares held by the major shareholders.
11) Dividend wise, HRC is stingy all this while and Petron is consistent with its dividend payout.
To me, oil price is the once off gain/loss item. The main buying criteria is how long the current crack spread can be sustained (same as how long the Russian sanction will end).
I will definitely go for HRC knowing that the losses on the forward point element will eventually be reversed and the gap between HRC and Petron is widening of which HRC is now much cheaper comparing to Petron.

@Rabbit2,
I do not have good knowledge on this derivative.
I like to seek your opinion, what is the estimated derivative loss in Q2 2022 result ?
Please enlighten me.

Posted by Rabbit2 > 2022-06-03 16:23 | Report Abuse

As long as the derivatives are held for hedging purpose, it shall not be of any concern. The trading derivatives held is minimal which I think it is just bcos it doesn't meet the hedging criteria. Both companies claim no speculative derivatives.

Posted by OTB > 2022-06-03 16:31 | Report Abuse

@Rabbit2,
Thank you for your explanation.

Posted by probability > 2022-06-03 16:40 | Report Abuse

@Rabbit2, thanks. Good to know there is no element of speculative hedging.

Posted by brian3381 > 2022-06-03 16:43 | Report Abuse

no need to switch to hy... u gila ka? ini petron uppp u buy hy for wat?

Posted by steven223838 > 2022-06-03 16:46 | Report Abuse

sifu has spoken .dump hengyuan buy petron .

Posted by Rabbit2 > 2022-06-03 16:48 | Report Abuse

@Probability
Hedging means hedging, speculating means speculating. I've never seen speculative hedging unless you are saying that the company is switching the % of hedging from time to time, to me it is still hedging.

Posted by Rabbit2 > 2022-06-03 16:53 | Report Abuse

@OTB
By the way, mind telling me how to subscribe to your channel for information sharing? Just want to get some investing ideas to broaden my knowledge and study further by myself. Invest or not invest is at my own risk.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-06-03 16:53 | Report Abuse

Today share price weakness is last chance to accumulate as much as possible, to fully pack it in portfolio

Posted by ngjack1991 > 2022-06-03 16:54 | Report Abuse

Lol seem like kyy is in opposite. Smart move indeed ask people buy hrc knowing no people will trust him and then ask promoter to start promote here then pump for the opposite site. Just an opinion, think twice before chase high. A lot of promoter will encourage you to chase high moving onward

Posted by probability > 2022-06-03 16:55 | Report Abuse

when you said above 'speculative contract' , i thought its the same as speculative hedging

Posted by Rabbit2 > Jun 3, 2022 4:48 PM | Report Abuse

@Probability
Hedging means hedging, speculating means speculating. I've never seen speculative hedging unless you are saying that the company is switching the % of hedging from time to time, to me it is still hedging.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-03 16:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockwin > 2022-06-03 17:01 | Report Abuse

it looks like to estimate the potential derivative loss in Q2 2022 is just a very rough guess. It could be any figure ? RM200M loss or RM900M loss or even RM100M profit ?

Posted by stockwin > 2022-06-03 17:03 | Report Abuse

I will still stick with HY.

Posted by brian3381 > 2022-06-03 17:04 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Rabbit2 > 2022-06-03 17:05 | Report Abuse

@Probability
To clarify, there 2 types of derivatives:
1) Hedging
2) Trading - It can be speculative one or those contract entered for hedging purpose but does not meet the hedging criteria under hedge accounting.
In their AR, they claimed no speculative. The trading portfolio is due to second one i.e. not meeting the hedging criteria....the movement of the hedging instrument does not move in tandem with the hedged item within the range of 80%-125%.

Posted by gladiator > 2022-06-03 17:06 | Report Abuse

Now too late to switch to petron already too high.

Posted by Rabbit2 > 2022-06-03 17:07 | Report Abuse

@OTB you may erase now

Posted by Tobby > 2022-06-03 17:07 | Report Abuse

Bought another round of 6.25 today! Didn't expect to get it but i qued yesterday!

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-03 17:12 | Report Abuse

Petron is now distributing now i think my warrant for petron shoot up more last minute ya

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-03 17:14 | Report Abuse

It further shoot up last minute

Posted by harold8990 > 2022-06-03 17:29 | Report Abuse

always remember the rule of investing..buy low sell high...regardless of what counter you are holding..

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-03 17:45 | Report Abuse

Glad you believe…some ppl here only believe me as ikan bilis

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-03 17:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-03 18:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-03 18:09 | Report Abuse

Huh none of you migrate to petron

Posted by hng33 > 2022-06-03 18:13 | Report Abuse

For enquiries in regard to hengyuan business model including hedging, kindly email hengyuan or contact:
: +606 641 2000
: HRCPD-Corporate-Affairs@hrc.com.my

Posted by TraderAlways > 2022-06-03 18:16 | Report Abuse

Will it breakdown instead of breakup since it cannot up

Posted by probability > 2022-06-03 18:19 | Report Abuse

i think after all the lengthy discussions here, the layman conclusion is: the lower the crack spread the better HY will make profit

so - let us pray for the crack spread to drop to 1.7 USD/brl like in 2020 and oil price to crash to below 10 USD/brl, then HY price will shoot up to RM 17

Its sad & unfortunate that the crack spread is at such depressing state of about 30 USD/brl

Thank you

Posted by blackgold77 > 2022-06-03 18:20 | Report Abuse

hellooo selamat petang bilis bilis, jerung jerung dan kepochi sekalian...
hope everyone had a great day, and have a nice weekend... saya busy hari ni

Posted by probability > 2022-06-03 18:22 | Report Abuse

HY basically buys refined oil and converts to crude oil

Posted by VTrade > 2022-06-03 18:23 | Report Abuse

Blackgold dapat untung besar?
Mood macam baik

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-03 18:25 | Report Abuse

Probability buy petron loo

Posted by hengpetron > 2022-06-03 18:31 | Report Abuse

Had you forgot year 2017 ,hy earn record profit
Bcou higher crack spread!

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-03 18:32 |

Post removed.Why?