Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-11 16:32 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-11 16:37 |

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Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-11 16:47 | Report Abuse

HRC has good earning potential due to worldwide short of refineries capacity. The gross profit is based on price different between the crude purchased and finished refined products sold. Crack Spread or price different between diesel, petrol, jet fuel and etc against crude oil.

No one will fault you if you tell the truth of the crack spread but unfortunately many OTB haters just keep repeating lies about the crack spread.

One things about HRC PAT is the unknow or not very well explained/understood hedging.

If you want to talk about balance sheet as fundamental then Insas has the best Balance sheet (Insas is now trading below net cash). Is Insas fundemental very good and why the fundemental did not help insas market price?


Nowadays many people are looking at earning power so what is HRC earnimg power moving forward? I predict Q2 gross profit in excess of RM 1 billion.

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-08-11 16:53 | Report Abuse

Sslee, good fundamentals doesn’t necessarily result in hike in share price. Not when the major shareholders (and not necessarily recognized as substantial shareholders) own a comparatively huge chunk (given the float) that can switch margin accounts to trade their investment, have extremely tight shareholdings and have low retail interest

Good fundamentals mean decent leverage. Debt, creditors, cash, treasury shares, NTA (very important), interim dividends (I give HY credit for this)

Share price, sometimes, doesn’t matter. And that’s how the big boys play the game

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-11 17:00 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-08-11 17:10 |

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Posted by investor77 > 2022-08-11 17:10 | Report Abuse

OTB never badmouthed Heng Yuan . All other refiners reporting awesome profit, why is Malaysia the exception ? Only because many afraid of Derivative loss, or hedging loss. Anyway, better to have low expectations of Eps of Rm1 or Nett profit of 300 mil, Too high expectations of Gross Profit of 1 bil, and when it is lower, price will fall as happen last time HY touch RM17. Thus when profit is more than RM 1, then price will go up.

Posted by tehka > 2022-08-11 17:22 | Report Abuse

Ok guys don't marah-marah ok. Now already 11 Aug, be patient wait until early next month, then everyone ma know who is right and who is wrong loh.. patience everyone, no panicks ok

Posted by probability > 2022-08-11 17:24 | Report Abuse

yes, agree on what you are saying.

we need investors here to understand how the hedging works, where in summary - PAT is basically lagging by 1 month on the would be profit without hedging.

Q1 is reflective of : Dec 21' , Jan 22', Feb 22'

Q2 is reflective of : Mar 22' , Apr 22', May 22'

Q3 is reflective of : Jun 22' , July 22', Aug 22'

The hedging loss / gain they show in the report is the difference in profit due to the lag by 1 month.

Also, we must stress that the crack spread shown on the future is an approximate of the 'potential margin' they can make.

Actual margin will depend on the exact timing HY sells products & buy crude simultaneously on futures market (i.e the hedging).


Posted by investor77 > Aug 11, 2022 5:10 PM | Report Abuse

OTB never badmouthed Heng Yuan . All other refiners reporting awesome profit, why is Malaysia the exception ? Only because many afraid of Derivative loss, or hedging loss. Anyway, better to have low expectations of Eps of Rm1 or Nett profit of 300 mil, Too high expectations of Gross Profit of 1 bil, and when it is lower, price will fall as happen last time HY touch RM17. Thus when profit is more than RM 1, then price will go up.

Posted by tehka > 2022-08-11 17:45 | Report Abuse

See the price next month then we will know who talk fact and who tokok

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-11 17:53 | Report Abuse

Pls anthonykh i support Him

anthonytkh
Sslee, good fundamentals doesn’t necessarily result in hike in share price. Not when the major shareholders (and not necessarily recognized as substantial shareholders) own a comparatively huge chunk (given the float) that can switch margin accounts to trade their investment, have extremely tight shareholdings and have low retail interest

Good fundamentals mean decent leverage. Debt, creditors, cash, treasury shares, NTA (very important), interim dividends (I give HY credit for this)

Share price, sometimes, doesn’t matter. And that’s how the big boys play the game
58 minutes ago

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-08-11 17:59 | Report Abuse

Mr OTB, why are you here? To me, saying bad things about a company is waaaay more digestible and acceptable than saying bad things about a person

What is a stock investment after all?

And I had questioned more than once about your “recommended stocks” where you said their fundamentals are good, that you only buy good fundamental stocks. AYS and HY have good fundamentals?

You have never replied my questions. At least when I have the time to check out this forum

A suggestion : There is no more any need to protect your “reputation”. Live a happy life without this i3 distraction. If you’ve made your money, well, that’s it, isn’t it?

Any further need to trap others in your personal pursuit of “There’s no such thing as enough money”? Cmon

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-08-11 18:17 | Report Abuse

Jeri, support yourself

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-11 18:17 | Report Abuse

Current crack spreads for the various refined fuels, though have come down considerably from recent unsustainable high level, is certainly NOT A DISASTER for refineries. The overall crack spread is still considerably higher than the past 5yrs or 10 yrs average.

What is disastrous is our stock market now is dominated by short term traders, day traders , contra players and short sellers who have NO conviction to the fundamentals of the stocks and they are easily swayed by day to day news and panicked by co-ordinated or syndicated attacks like we witnessed in HY recently.
Syndicates are preying on the nervous market sentiment too.
At he same time ,there isn’t enough serious investors around this time , be it institution or individual, who are ready to absorb the selling pressure .
I think that somewhat caused the panic selling of HY even before crack spread moved down .
We probably will not see euphoria in the stock even if EPS for 2nd qtr is $2.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-11 18:42 | Report Abuse

We have witnessed numerous relentless attacks on a stock or gurus and they were carried out deliberately. It is ok to air opposite views once, twice and even thrice. But when same unsubstantiated things are said over and over again , some even on daily basis is certainly much more than just having different opinions, but bad intentions.
Everyone must be accorded respect for stock recommendations , especially when published facts and figures accompanied. It is entirely the responsibility of the readers to decide if the information or recommendations can be adopted .
Let’s avoid the very toxic exchanges that don’t bring benefits to anyone. Let’s remember that what goes around comes around one day .

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-11 19:01 |

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Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-11 19:31 | Report Abuse

My defination on TA and FA during i3 blogger day 2019.

Technical Analysis (TA)
Technical analysis is a trading discipline employed to evaluate investments and identify trading opportunities by analyzing statistical trends gathered from trading activities, such as price movement trade volume and focus on patterns of price movements, trading signals and various other analytical charting tools to evaluate a security's strength or weakness. Thus TA pattern is influence by Greed & Fear (Behavior pattern) and will be most effective if use together with FA Qualitative study of Economic condition and Industry condition that create greed and fear where people will panic buy or panic sell as no one will look at FA quantitative financial data

Fundamental analysis (FA)
Fundamental analysts study anything that can affect the stock's value, including macroeconomic factors (e.g. economy and industry conditions) and microeconomic factors (e.g. financial conditions and company management). The end goal of fundamental analysis is to produce a quantitative value (Intrinsic Value) that an investor can compare with a stock's current market price, thus indicating whether the stock is undervalued or overvalued. Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluating a stock in an attempt to assess its intrinsic value.

In summary Fundamental Analysis cover:

QUANTITATIVE
Financial data/ratio contain in current and past financial report.

QUALITIVE
Economy condition (Current and future)
Industry condition (Current and future)
Company management (Current and future)
Profit growth prospect (Current and future)

In short what many people term as Business Sense (BS) is actually the qualitative part of Fundamental Analysis. BS is subset of FA.

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-08-11 19:40 | Report Abuse

Just don’t focus too much on “crack spreads”

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-08-11 19:41 | Report Abuse

Dig into shareholdings, floats and world scenario

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-11 20:24 | Report Abuse

Hi Anthony,
Would you kind enough to share with us what aspect of the shareholding, floats and world scenario that have changed so adversely in both HY and PetronM and resulted steep sell down recently ? May be there is something we can learn from you .
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Posted by anthonytkh > 34 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Dig into shareholdings, floats and world scenario

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-11 20:45 | Report Abuse

Any further need to trap others in your personal pursuit of “There’s no such thing as enough money”?
----------------
I feel very offended by this statement.
Please show me the proof.
I do not wish to see this statement related to me.
I assume all readers and investors are smart people, not so easy to con or cheat them.
Thank you.

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-11 20:57 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-08-11 21:44 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-11 22:55 |

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Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-11 22:56 | Report Abuse

Worldwide stock markets are bullish now except Hang Seng (HK).
Energy index in KLSE is also bullish now.
Ini kali lah, Huat loh !!

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-11 23:13 |

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Posted by sharemarket21 > 2022-08-12 00:31 | Report Abuse

Why bother listening to the roasted, still roasting roaster. Coming to public or street forum make a stance and hope to gain quick fame and deceiving but failed miserably knowing exactly your loss is someone gain in stock market. Why mercy ? Bash all you want. It's 4.15 and not 7.15 afterall. Worse still a few blame what silly conspiracies instead of owning the failure for being inexperience in stock market. The little men trying to emulate the big boys out there. That's the fee lesson you are paying now. Some can't even read the general market sentiment but trying to pump deceiving facts for quick bucks? Welcome to the mini market.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-12 06:29 | Report Abuse

@Jerichomy,
No need to instigate others to join in your relentless attacks lah. It doesn’t bring any good to yourself and others.

Please look at things from a positive and reasonable perspective even if you have suffered losses from adopting someone else’s stock recommendations.

On daily basis , you are exposed to stock recommendations or market views from Investment bankers , financial experts , Wall Street analysts , your remisers, your friends and even your family members too. Are you going to attack them relentlessly (including your good friends and family members) if their recommendations or view turn out to be opposite???

I think OTB’s recommendations are sound and most of the recommended stocks including AYS, Hiaptek and HY went up handsomely at certain point of time . These stocks tumbled subsequently due to circumstantial changes to the market that nobody can control. I don’t think he harbors any ill intention to mislead people.

Please restore some harmony and positive energy in i3 forum.
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Posted by Jerichomy > 6 hours ago | Report Abuse

I malas nak jawap OTB and make myself so well known.

Ty y, citadel and anthonykh can jawab better than Me !!!

Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2022-08-12 08:36 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-12 08:58 |

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Posted by paktua73 > 2022-08-12 10:09 | Report Abuse

morning..lama tak jadi promoter kebun swing
hehe
now red legion heavy on tech..
and stand strong at plantation TSH..

paktua n red legion still strong in tsh..
our aim only rm1.23-1.24..

n we also..
heavy on tech
1-coraza
2-cnergen
3-lgms
4-sfptech

all paktua set tp above rm1.30



tut tut
we only swing legions we sail on opportunis sea..

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-12 10:51 | Report Abuse

Hi Jeri,
Whether johnzhang or OTB is richer than you is really immaterial. Try doing something to enrich your own life is more important and it can be achieved if you keep your head cool and embrace peace in heart.

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Posted by Jerichomy > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

f i am lying, nobody will believe me even if i try to instigate ppl haahahs

I am Not rich like johnzhang and otb hahaha Posted by Jerichomy > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

f i am lying, nobody will believe me even if i try to instigate ppl haahahs

I am Not rich like johnzhang and otb hahaha

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-12 10:56 | Report Abuse

A very important advice loh!

If u like refinery ....it is better & safer to buy into Petron than HRC loh!

Petron has no corporate governance problem whereas HRC has loh!

Furthermore Petron has better value & more business resilence than HRC loh!

Posted by tehka > 2022-08-12 11:23 | Report Abuse

Who talk fact and who tokok we will know when qtr result is out

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-08-12 11:29 | Report Abuse

John, back in 2015 EPF held over 16%. They’d been selling until they now hold just around 2.5%. In 2017, PNB held over 6%. They’d been selling until they now hold around 3.5%

Why did both sell until they are no longer substantial shareholders (ie. that usual “Notice of Person Ceasing” announcement)? Can be a few things… they took profit or they no longer believe in the company and their trades no longer need to be announced (since they’re no longer substantial shareholders)

HRC shares total only 300M

===
Hi Anthony,
Would you kind enough to share with us what aspect of the shareholding, floats and world scenario that have changed so adversely in both HY and PetronM and resulted steep sell down recently ? May be there is something we can learn from you .

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-08-12 11:32 | Report Abuse

As for the sharp rise and the subsequent sharp drop, re-read my post above, especially the part where EPF and PNB are no longer substantial shareholders. These two companies are smart operators

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2022-08-12 13:20 | Report Abuse

Jangan risau. Permintaan akan meningkat apabila memasuki musim sejuk

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-12 13:35 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-08-12 13:38 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-12 13:43 | Report Abuse

Gogogo anthonykh

anthonytkh
John, back in 2015 EPF held over 16%. They’d been selling until they now hold just around 2.5%. In 2017, PNB held over 6%. They’d been selling until they now hold around 3.5%

Why did both sell until they are no longer substantial shareholders (ie. that usual “Notice of Person Ceasing” announcement)? Can be a few things… they took profit or they no longer believe in the company and their trades no longer need to be announced (since they’re no longer substantial shareholders)

HRC shares total only 300M

===
Hi Anthony,
Would you kind enough to share with us what aspect of the shareholding, floats and world scenario that have changed so adversely in both HY and PetronM and resulted steep sell down recently ? May be there is something we can learn from you .
2 hours ago
5 minutes ago

I support you torture the above my comment too

Nobody can beat ur facts and figures

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-12 13:44 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-12 13:46 |

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Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-12 13:47 |

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Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-12 13:50 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-12 13:57 |

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Posted by techfarmer > 2022-08-12 13:57 | Report Abuse

Unfair claims by Pernas to Serba Dinamik management

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/oasn/2022-08-12-story-h162...

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-08-12 13:58 | Report Abuse

Epf can be indicator = go buy harta .

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-12 14:12 | Report Abuse

I only know Insas because of controlling shareholder Dato' Sri Thong and PAC hold 32.96 % hence directors, and company cannot buy Insas shares due to 33% threshold that trigger the MGO.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-12 14:24 |

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Posted by ty Y > 2022-08-12 15:29 | Report Abuse

Jeri Although you tell everyone the truth, it won't affect the money they have cheated back, but at least you can tell everyone, let some people who haven't been fooled know, I believe readers know what to do in the future, especially after seeing this Two people write any report, sincerely appreciate you telling everyone the facts. My teacher sad guru taught me a way of thinking. If you are also lose money from recommended by this so-called master and refer to the beautiful company data of otb to chase high stock prices ,Please try this method, relax and close your eyes, Recite it three or more times in your mind. They are con man . Install to your mind . You only have to do it once, if you don't want to be misled by similar problems in the future. Because The money is yours!