Posted by investor77 > 2022-08-14 23:11 | Report Abuse

Today, Saudi Aramco reported huge profit of US 88 billion for half year, in World News. Anyway, safer to be on the conservative side of EPS RM 1, for Q2 and Q3/2022. Of course many predict gross profit of RM 1 billion, before hedging losses, operating cost, inventory loss, etc. Number of shares is only 300 million !! Heng Yuan has touched RM 7 before, and RM 10 should be possible as good results will make the PE ratio very low, below 5x.

Posted by DickyMe10 > 2022-08-15 10:49 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-08-15 17:43 | Report Abuse

Morgan Stanley Upgrades Thai Oil Public Listed Co. to Overweight as Refining Upcycle Remains

15/08/2022

Read More: https://www.kaohooninternational.com/markets/515261/

Although headline refining margins have volatility of 25% daily in Asia, MS believed strength in diesel margins and quick recovery in gasoline margins in the past few weeks does underline marginal cash cost economics in play as the majority of global refiners are struggling to raise their utilization rates.

In this regard, Morgan Stanley upgraded TOP’s rating to Overweight and raised target price to THB65 from THB57 per share as the company has the highest exposure to middle distillates, among Asian refining peers and should be a key beneficiary of the upcycle in refining margins over 2023-24.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-15 18:27 | Report Abuse

Fantastic - oil price dropping and crack spread rising on live data!

This what we want - LOW OIL PRICE!!

Posted by probability > Aug 12, 2022 4:19 PM | Report Abuse X

Hope investors get the clear message that, as a refinery , HY need crude oil price to be low to sustain demand to an extent that the constraint becomes refining capacity instead of crude oil availability - only then crack will remain strong.

Posted by Normalinvestor > 2022-08-15 20:37 | Report Abuse

Insiders or syndicates always smell the opportunity earlier than us. But no movement so far as QR is just around the corner

Posted by probability > 2022-08-15 21:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-08-15 22:00 | Report Abuse

Someone mention that the situation is similar to Q1.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-15 22:12 | Report Abuse

u mean they always have big jump in gross profit from qtr to qtr but hedging will wipe it out completely?

in the same sense i wish there is a company where they will report big loss in gross profit but hedging will save them to report bigger gain..

if the former can exist, i guess latter can too by the same principle

Posted by StingRay > 2022-08-15 22:17 | Report Abuse

the hedging saved them in the previous quarter. but unfortunately this quarter? kikiki.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-15 22:19 | Report Abuse

by the way live data indicates margins are exploding again at the moment.... tomorrow we shall see the diesel crack spread chart further strengthening from 40.36

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-08-15 22:46 | Report Abuse

Hy loss in hedging if crack spread is uptrend and what happens when crack spread at downtrend?
Hedging loss 100m is over optimistic. Hy management had lock in the margins at 14-16. Any upside from 16 is wipe off by hedging loss. PAT 250m- 400m is the most possible outcome.
400m enough to lift hy to 6-7 . Heard someone tp 19.50 ? He must in daydreaming

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-08-15 22:54 | Report Abuse

Recent price reflect market anticipating the results going to same with Q1. Entry now is very safe, aim for 50% return in 2weeks. Limited downside, where to find a low risk high return stocks? Tomorrow continue to top up. But please do not simply target 19.50.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-15 23:07 | Report Abuse

Posted by Sslee > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

HRC earning peak at Q3 2017 Gross profit of about RM 428 million with PAT of RM 361 million and HRC price peak at RM 19.2 at Dec 29 2017.

By the way Q1 2022 gross profit is RM 508 million and I predict Q2 2022 gross profit should be RM 1 billion.
-----------------
Sslee talked with facts and figures, no one knows what is the target price.
If EPS in Q2 2022 is 2.00, the target price can be = 32.00 if based on historical number.
Let us take a step at a time, let the share price goes up to 7, 10, 12 and so on.

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-08-15 23:09 | Report Abuse

The angels of ma of crack spread tell the hedging loss, checked the relation of hedging loss and crack spread moving averages slope from 2019. Q2 loss in hedge is huge but acceptable. July hedging gains not less than . 280m . Q3 will be fantastic as well. But still can’t reach 19.50. maybe 12 at year end if big cyclones hit mexico gulf

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-15 23:14 | Report Abuse

Let Q2 2022 result tells us the actual picture.
No one really know what are all the refined derivative losses.
Hence most of sifu here count gross profit only.
No one dare to count Net PAT.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-15 23:22 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-08-15 23:26 | Report Abuse

Korea largest floods
Europe hottest summer
Deforestation lah. Make pollution lah. What next? The weather in Atlantic in this summer is almost the same as 2017 ….

Posted by paktua73 > 2022-08-16 07:21 | Report Abuse

morning..let change to tech..
now tech fever..
morning paktua heavy on tech..
yesterday cnergen star rally..
coraza also got rally..
sfptech already rally..
hope next lgms will continue chase sfpteach..


paktua n red legion still strong in TSH..
our aim only rm1.23-1.24..


and we alsso heavy on tech like:
1-coraza
2-cnergen
3-lgms
4-sfptech
all tech counter paktua set tp above rm1.30

we know to get there..
so many difficulties,heavy obstacles..
red hurricane,pirate ambushed..
and many more have to go thru

we will continue sail and face it all..
we never stop...
until we reach on our dream green rm1.30..



tut tut
we just swing legions do as swing always do..

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-16 08:19 | Report Abuse

KLSE’s sentiment is poor, lack of liquidity and investors are in nervous mode . Under such market environment, it is more realistic to assume PE of 5x to get TP. Just my view .
—————

Posted by Zhuge_Liang :
If EPS = 1.76, the target price can be 19.20/1.20*1.76 =28.16 if based on historical number.
No one can give an accurate target price at the present time.
We need to wait for Q2 2022 result

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-08-16 09:07 | Report Abuse

Based on historical numbers, Q4 2021: 19.20/1.2 * 0.5993 = 9.59
Q1 2022 = 2.53. Please do the maths before dream big.
Share price need market blessings to fly. 2017 rally was because of kyy. Unfortunately he had loss his credit

Give high TP so that you can sell high is a shame. 19.50 geng , treat people as lulu. For this group of peoples. Please do not sell if hy reach 12 . Please sell at 19.50.

Q2 Q3 Eps around 0.83 to 1.33 . Year end TP 9.5 -12.50 . *If Crack back to 20++ , only dream for 14++

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-16 09:22 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-16 09:26 | Report Abuse

bought back hengyuan at 4.08

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-16 09:27 | Report Abuse

I never dream the share price of Hengyuan hit 19.50 in 2017.
It happened and I also did not sell at high.
No one can predict the share price unless you are a god.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-16 09:36 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-16 09:47 | Report Abuse

Q1 2022, the Average refining crack increased from
1. Gasoline cracks from USD 7.1/bbl to USD 17.8/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 5.8/bbl to USD 21.6/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.3/bbl to USD 16.2/bbl.

1H 2022 Average refining cracks increased from
1. Gasoline crack from USD 8.5/bbl to USD 26.4/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 6.4/bbl to USD 36.6/bbl,
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.9/bbl to USD 27.7/bbl.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-16 10:06 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan (complex refinery) vs. Petron (simple refinery)

Hengyuan, complex refinery plant enable it to refine heavy oil mainly from Saudi which is cheaper than Malaysia crude oil. Therefore, it have cost advantage, but it needs an aggressive hedge feedstock ahead due to need to source crude from various source at spot price. Exposure to derivatives is higher in order to protect its profit margin.

vs.

Petron has a long-term supply contract of Tapis crude oil and Terengganu condensate for its Port Dickson Refinery from ExxonMobil Exploration
and Production Malaysia Inc. (EMEPMI) and Low Sulphur Waxy Residue Sale/Purchase Agreement with Exxon Trading Asia Pacific, a division of ExxonMobil Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd.

On the average, around 55% of crude and condensate volume processed are from EMEPMI with balance of around 45% from spot purchases. Require less hedging position to protect its profit margin.

Petron sources these light crude oil with low sulphur, therefore a simple refinery process is enough to produce gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

Posted by abc333 > 2022-08-16 10:42 | Report Abuse

cw21 gg. good luck to Cw25

Posted by Eldon > 2022-08-16 10:51 | Report Abuse

Why c25? c24 have longer maturity and low premiums…

Posted by abc333 > 2022-08-16 11:04 | Report Abuse

buying cw will make me insomnia. I want sleep well. reload this morning 4.08. will add if touch 4

Posted by ty Y > 2022-08-16 11:08 | Report Abuse

After investing for a few years, it is rare to see the title of stock master called ham kah Chan by readers. otb you are amazing, you can make so many people hate you, but you can imagine how ugly what you do. Of course, there are indeed good people with good stock experience in the market, such as Cold Eyes, Mr. Chen Jian, etc.

Posted by vinc3362 > 2022-08-16 11:15 | Report Abuse

ty Y please stick to stock fundamentals.
Why are you trying to provoke OTB ?
Just leave OTB out of this forum.

Posted by MarketWatcher44 > 2022-08-16 11:15 | Report Abuse

Thanks ty Y for your sharp eye and keen observation.

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-16 11:32 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by profit profits > 2022-08-16 12:23 | Report Abuse

dont be fool to buy call warrants, you are indeed giving bullets to investment bank to short sell the mothershare when it reach expiry. the action to buy call warrant is like those people who want to make big money by going to myamar and kampuchia

Posted by tehka > 2022-08-16 12:26 | Report Abuse

After invest many years, yet you still follow random sifu on i3, loose money, then curse the sifu?

Posted by investor77 > 2022-08-16 13:12 | Report Abuse

For HYuan, there are 3 call warrants, each with difft ratios and difft exercise price. Valuations of CW depends on premiums depending on Maturity and leverage. C 26 only has 30 mil, expiring 2023, C 24, has an issue of 80 mil, expiring also in 2023, but C 25 has best ratio of 4 to 1, with larger issue of 150 mil, but expiring at end October. You will notice most active is C 24, but more responsive to any HYuan price increase is C 25. It is more risky as it is expiring soon, and Inv bank may push down Mother share price to avoid losses on its Call Warrants. Anyway, to be om the conservative side, estd Eps of HengYuan is around RM1/share, anything above is a bonus. If we take Eps of RM3/share and profit is less, like in 2017, prices will plummet cos it did not meet expectations !!

Posted by probability > 2022-08-16 14:52 | Report Abuse

https://www.bunkerspot.com/asia/56744-asia-pacific-ampol-reports-huge-refining-margin-hike

Australia’s Ampol has reported that the refining margin for its Lytton refinery reached the ‘unprecedented level ‘of US$32.96 per barrel in the second quarter of this year – up threefold from the US$10.59 per barrel achieved in the first quarter, and a five-fold increase on the $6.29 per barrel reported for Q2 2021.

In a statement issued today (19 July), Ampol said that the ‘significant increase in Singapore Weighted Average Margin (SWAM) was the key driver’ for the margin hike

..


for HY , we only avg 13 USD/brl for RM 1 EPS, sad to see investors dumping the shares...

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-08-16 15:00 | Report Abuse

Look like HY follow the same as previous Qtr problem. Insider must know now to dispose off.

Posted by Eldon > 2022-08-16 15:22 | Report Abuse

Aiyo..how come getting lower and lower?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-16 15:22 | Report Abuse

@probability , you also see people dumping good nett cash plantation shares despite a sure 2qtr record profit and robust dividend payout. Notwithstanding that CPO has dropped considerably from the unsustainable highs , present price level still generates profitability well above the historic averages.
Genuine investors are just too nervous and prefer to stay on sidelines. It’s therefore a heaven for syndicates and short sellers to dictate the future.
KLSE is doomed!
That’s just my observation.

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-08-16 15:48 | Report Abuse

Anyone know where is the next support line?

Posted by NoviceJ > 2022-08-16 15:53 | Report Abuse

During the last Q, HY lost money because of the Hedging and compare to Petron it lost more because they have a higher capacity and therefore they need to hedge more, the prices of oil shoot up because of the Ukraine war and that is a one time affair, coming in to this Q the oil prices is more or less stabilize at a higher level and my GUESS is that they should make a huge profit as shown in other refineries reporting
Am i being Brave when most are afraid
Lets wait for while more for the report to be publish
cos if we look at the volume transacted its not that Big
That's my observation and hopefully my patience serve me well

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2022-08-16 15:54 | Report Abuse

i bottomed fish at RM 3.99-4.00 just now...

Posted by probability > 2022-08-16 15:54 | Report Abuse

Great thing about the above news is, Ampol also reported about the same gross margin HY had reported for Q1 22.

Lets pray for the best for Q2 22'.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-16 15:55 | Report Abuse

@NoviceJ & @ValueInvestor88, best of luck... I am with you

Posted by profit profits > 2022-08-16 16:24 | Report Abuse

when will the report out ?

Posted by probability > 2022-08-16 16:30 | Report Abuse

If a refinery situated in Australia is basing Singapore platts margin, why can't a refinery from a neighbour country just a few KM away?

with the profit HY will make, it can even buyout shell retails in Malaysia...

Well thats what they are doing now in Sri Lanka:

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/chinas-oil-giant-sinopec-eyes-business-in-sri-lankan-gas-and-energy-market-amid-crisis-articleshow.html


China's largest oil and energy corporation, Sinopec, is looking at retail business opportunities in the Sri Lankan fuel market as the South Asian island continues to suffer a stifling economic crisis.

Posted by stockwin > 2022-08-16 16:53 | Report Abuse

I thought Probability was giving up HY for a moment. haha.
I was looking at the analysis of the sifus here left ,right and center again and again, and the only conclusion I arrived at is to buy more. You cannot get better than this !!
The crack spread is too super attractive to ignore.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-16 17:08 | Report Abuse

even if i try to give up for Q2 results, Q3 results is still giving hope unfortunately...ha ha

HY cannot run away from our predictions...looks like :)

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-16 17:33 | Report Abuse

My common sense tell me Petronm amd HRC will have the best ever Quarter result in Q2 2022.

As of Petronm and HRC share price movement god only know. Man proposes, God disposes.