Posted by mf > 2022-08-01 12:06 | Report Abuse

Stock futures fall slightly to start August trading

Posted by stockwin > 2022-08-01 12:37 | Report Abuse

Barring major surprises HY should report an EPS of at lease RM2 ???

Posted by stockwin > 2022-08-01 12:42 | Report Abuse

I wander what is OTB's estimated EPS now? Obviously he is not going to say as he has left I3 for good ?

Posted by investor77 > 2022-08-01 13:01 | Report Abuse

Stock Win, even an Earnings per Share of RM 1/ is good enough. I remember the last time HY hit RM18, expectations were too high, and when results not up to expectations, price fell !! So it is better to have conservative estimate of EPS. In Europe, oil companies reported superb earnings and so is Vietnam, closer to home. So I guess, eps should not be too far off RM1/.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-08-01 13:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-08-01 13:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-08-01 14:05 | Report Abuse

Wow MM got a little brain also..not bad. But unfortunately he is wrong.

..............

Guys, do your homework, the Gasoil crack spread is applicable for Asia.

The gasoil singapore and gasoil europe has price difference of 1 or 2 $/brl.

Against Brent, The Gasoil crack spread for Asia is about the same.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-08-01 14:25 | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo Probability European diesel crack got nothing to do with Asia diesel crack

EU known paying super expensive diesel b’coz of import restrictions from Rus

MY/Asia where got diesel problem aiyoyo

Posted by probability > 2022-08-01 14:32 | Report Abuse

Dear all, kindly copy paste the below link:

SINGAPORE GASOIL

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SGB1!/

The difference between above and Brent Crude would give the Crack Spread of Diesel HY will make.

This is inline with the below Crack Spread Chart for Diesel shared earlier:

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Hope this proves MM is not that smart :)


Posted by MoneyMakers > Aug 1, 2022 2:25 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo Probability European diesel crack got nothing to do with Asia diesel crack

EU known paying super expensive diesel b’coz of import restrictions from Rus

MY/Asia where got diesel problem aiyoyo

Posted by KooSan > 2022-08-01 14:34 | Report Abuse

Oil coming down ma....Demand destruction....

Posted by MoneyMakers

Walao SG Mogas crack spread collapse to usd7 (80% drop from peak usd33) - as expected

Alrdy explained long ago high crack spread unsustainable - oil producers always squeeze refiner margins

Refiners dont have ‘pricing power’ to maintain high crack spread - basic oil economics

Posted by probability > 2022-08-01 14:36 | Report Abuse

Whatever the price movement currently, the earnings cannot lie in the long run..


HY price will eventually reflect this.


Diesel Crack is not expected to come down anytime now:


Diesel Crisis Likely to Stay Unfixed by Oil Refining Revival

15 June 22'

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/diesel-crisis-likely-to-stay-unfixed-by-oil-refining-revival

“There is little hope that the undersupply will ease in the near future given strong demand growth and constrained refinery output,” the IEA said. The agency’s forecast for future refining processing is “not sufficient to fully meet middle distillates demand in 2022 or in 2023.”

Posted by information > 2022-08-01 14:53 | Report Abuse

Excellent information. Thanks probability!

Posted by probability > Aug 1, 2022 2:32 PM | Report Abuse

Dear all, kindly copy paste the below link:

SINGAPORE GASOIL

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SGB1!/

The difference between above and Brent Crude would give the Crack Spread of Diesel HY will make.

This is inline with the below Crack Spread Chart for Diesel shared earlier:

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Hope this proves MM is not that smart :)

Posted by probability > 2022-08-01 14:58 | Report Abuse

Refer Page 22 of the annual report. HY produces 46% Diesel

https://klse1.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/422363.jsp

Posted by probability > 2022-08-01 15:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by vtkt123 > 2022-08-01 15:24 | Report Abuse

Excellent information and explanation Probability.
Just ignore the good for nothing SOB mm..he is always pain in the ass saying things without backing facts!!

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-01 15:37 | Report Abuse

MM is the best so far he predicted correctly about Hiap Teck and AYS

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-08-01 15:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-08-01 16:00 | Report Abuse

Recent rally (very low volume) obviously trap..sellers all waiting QR - hoping got rally they can dump

What happens when QR out but no rally (everyone pricing-in bad Q3 onwards - crack spread alrdy collapse)??

Dont think people will wait Q3..expecting everyone exit/selloff ASAP

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-08-01 16:00 | Report Abuse

Investor reaction when QR out really make-or-break moment..possible totally collapse

Interesting to see what happens..gdluck all investors - plan exit properly

Posted by probability > 2022-08-01 16:02 | Report Abuse

MM, suggest you really read what is being shared. Its life time opportunity for you to make money.

You dont get anything by winning your argument...

Check and verify what i have shared and act for your own benefit.

Posted by ty Y > 2022-08-01 16:09 | Report Abuse

If that's what you're saying, why don't you get rid of your stock soon? It is clear that the current oil price has reflected that all the refiners are making big profits. There may really be a lot of people who want to panic sell with the intent of creating rumors and buy from low stock prices. It's not surprising that these methods have long been used

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-01 16:27 | Report Abuse

@probability, don’t waste your time to convince the Monkey MM . You can’t win any argument with monkey .

Someone thinks MM is a middle aged widow .
(Must be a very frustrated one). See below post in Hibiscus forum . Hehehe..
—————


Posted by paktua73 > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

hurm..base on paktua experience..
who be angry and hate some one against their side..
mostly women..(not say all women arr)

so paktua predict MM is midle widow person
hehe


tut tut
love janda janda
hehe

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2022-08-01 18:51 | Report Abuse

Masih pegang dan tunggu Q2 keputusan diumumkan

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-01 19:19 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-01 19:21 | Report Abuse

Sslee
KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 1): Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) has cut the July 2022 official selling price (OSP) of Malaysian crude oil to US$124.30 a barrel, from US$$132.50 for June 2022, Bloomberg reported, quoting an emailed statement by Petronas on Monday (Aug 1).

"OSPs of other Malaysian grades for July (are) Cendor at US$125.40/barrel, Tapis Blend at US$119.59/barrel, Dulang at US$127.32/barrel, Bintulu at US$122.28/barrel," Bloomberg reported
34 minutes ago

Sslee
Weeekly Ron 97 price for July is RM 4.84, 4.80, 4.75, 4.65, 4.55.

So with Tapis Blend for july at USD 119.59/barrel, is Petronm profitable for july 2022?
29 minutes ago

Posted by probability > 2022-08-01 19:23 | Report Abuse

In June the crack of Gasoil had hit 70 USD/brl

This is absolutely real margin of Gasoil in Singapore representing south east asia region. I had verified the above with multiple resources / news.

THE ABOVE IS 100% TRUE
......................

Due to hedging mechanism of HY, its possible that Q3 will be even more explosive that Q2.


Truly mind boggling. We had been so obsessed with Mogas 92 that we had overlooked on Diesel crack.

Posted by vinc3362 > 2022-08-01 19:58 | Report Abuse

When new facts and information are presented and one still stick to old views, you have a closed mind.

A closed mind is a dying mind.

Posted by vinc3362 > 2022-08-01 19:58 | Report Abuse

Thanks probability, your info is priceless.

Posted by vinc3362 > 2022-08-01 20:00 | Report Abuse

So why are we using Mogas 92 crack spread for reference when Gasoil(46%) is the main product of HRC?

Posted by probability > 2022-08-01 20:19 | Report Abuse

the Mogas 92 was the most conveniently accessible earlier - thats why we used it

It was very simple for everyone to see it instead of complicating the derivation with all the products a Complex refinery like HY produce

HY if you refer all their annual reports had always been producing 44 % over Diesel, they still produce Gasoline at 30% yield

HY has the flexibility to adjust the yield of their products based on profitability and demand due to their catalytic cracking unit

The world demand for Diesel is so high that the refinery cannot produce to meet its demand (at maximum yield selection for Diesel). As such they inevitably produce gasoline where the demand has not catch up yet


Posted by vinc3362 > Aug 1, 2022 8:00 PM | Report Abuse

So why are we using Mogas 92 crack spread for reference when Gasoil(46%) is the main product of HRC?

Posted by probability > 2022-08-01 20:25 | Report Abuse

now the low price of Gasoline will leverage the margin of Diesel produced by Complex refiners as the Simple Refiners like PetronM will cease to become profitable at very low crack (especially European refineries which are mostly simple type). This will force them to reduce output....

Posted by probability > 2022-08-01 20:28 | Report Abuse

You can see the detail yield difference between Complex refinery & Simple refinery on the link below

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/Insight1/2018-02-03-story146257-DIFFERENCE_between_PETRONM_and_HENGYUAN.jsp

Such low margin of Gasoline will kill SIMPLE refiners.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-01 20:32 | Report Abuse

Bear in mind Fuel Oil crack spread is negative - 27 USD/brl

Posted by probability > 2022-08-01 20:41 | Report Abuse

Simple refiners will soon stop producing (as they mainly produce Gasoline & Fuel Oil with only a small amount of Diesel). This then will further reduce diesel supply in the market.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-02 07:58 | Report Abuse

The fuel products yield is a factor of what type of crude you used beside whether the refinery is equiped with Catalytic Cracker to crack the long chain hydrocarbon (fuel oil) to diesel or petrol.

By the way fuel oil normally use as bunker fuel in ship and there are two grade of bunker fuel. High sulfur and low sulfur bunker oil and the price are very different.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-02 08:01 | Report Abuse

By the way most likely Vietnam allowed their refinery to run on Russia crude.

Posted by stockwin > 2022-08-02 08:14 | Report Abuse

The gross profit may be explosive in Q2 but the biggest unknown is still the derivatives losses. That is probably why it is holding the share price from performing.

Posted by VincentTang > 2022-08-02 10:01 | Report Abuse

Crack spread up 21% last night.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-02 10:10 | Report Abuse

D1N1!
SINGAPORE MOGAS 92 UNLEADED (PLATTS) BRENT CRACK SPREAD FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)NYMEX
9.533
D
USD
+1.659
(+21.07%)

Posted by kl_guy > 2022-08-02 10:45 | Report Abuse

Hopefully this coming quarter report is nice without big losses on hedging.

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2022-08-02 14:47 | Report Abuse

Breaking news , EU has started easing sanctions on Russian oil & gas !

Posted by mf > 2022-08-02 21:04 | Report Abuse

US 30 32,637.5 -160.9 -0.49%
US 500 4,093.8 -24.8 -0.60%

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2022-08-02 22:12 | Report Abuse

Masih pegang dan tunggu Q2 keputusan diumumkan bulan ni...

Posted by ty Y > 2022-08-02 23:43 | Report Abuse

Recommendation
1. I do not care if there is a crash in the US stock market, I will just hold on to Hengyuan shares.
2. The share price of Hengyuan cannot move up north because the market sentiment in KLSE is very bad.
3. I believe it is a lifetime opportunity to win big in Hengyuan.
4. You will never see a stock listed in KLSE to have such high EPS.
5. I believe the share price of Hengyuan will break RM19.50 in 2022.
The final decision to buy is always yours.

Thank you.

Posted by mf > 2022-08-03 04:15 | Report Abuse

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average

32,396.17

-402.23

1.22%

Nasdaq

NASDAQ Composite

12,348.75

-20.21

0.16%

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2022-08-03 10:05 | Report Abuse

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Diesel-Crisis-Is-Far-From-Over.html

Hope probability is right...

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2022-08-03 10:06 | Report Abuse

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Diesel-Shortage-Deepens-Global-Dependency-On-US-Fuel.html

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-03 11:25 | Report Abuse

Don't be scared by the sell down due to Aunty Nancy visit to Taiwan.

Sialang and celebrate the coming Q result.

Heng~

Ong~

Huatt ah~~~ =D

Posted by ty Y > 2022-08-03 11:41 | Report Abuse

Recommendation
Do not sell Hengyuan, buy and hold until the Q2 2022 result is released to make a final decision.
I believe the target price of Hengyuan will be very high, the target price should be higher than the all-time high price at 19.50.
The final decision to buy is always yours.

Thank you.

寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人

Posted by stockwin > 2022-08-03 15:07 | Report Abuse

ty Y
Recommendation
Do not sell Hengyuan, buy and hold until the Q2 2022 result is released to make a final decision.
I believe the target price of Hengyuan will be very high, the target price should be higher than the all-time high price at 19.50.
The final decision to buy is always yours.

Thank you.

寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人

=================================================================

You sounded like OTB ??haha.. So what is his take on HY now? I think he is unable to predict the derivative losses?? Thats is the biggest mystery now.
@Probability did a good job explaining HY hedging . lets wait for another 3-4 weeks and we will get the answer.