Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-16 17:36 | Report Abuse

Stick with safe Petron & avoid HRC loh!

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-16 17:56 | Report Abuse

I think petronm will make as good profit as Petdag but look at the valuation of Petdag and petronm, this one is god decide.

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-08-16 18:01 | Report Abuse

God decide?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-16 18:04 | Report Abuse

Syndicates and short sellers decide .

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2022-08-16 18:08 | Report Abuse

at RM 4, the margin of safety is very high...

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2022-08-16 18:16 | Report Abuse

Harga minyak terjejas oleh sebab kelembapan ekonomi di China...

Posted by probability > 2022-08-16 18:19 | Report Abuse

Jangan lihat harga minyak, klu turun lagi mantap!

Tengok crack spread saja udah cukup...

Sekarang, merekah besar lagi spread nya...

Esok, kemungkinan besar angka dibawa mencecah atas 41 $/brl

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Posted by probability > 2022-08-16 18:32 | Report Abuse

Look at Ampol refinery's historical refining margins:

4Q 2021 Lytton Refinery Performance Update

https://www.listcorp.com/asx/ald/ampol-limited/news/4q-2021-lytton-refinery-performance-update-2657819.html

Q2 results, 19 July 22'

https://www.listcorp.com/asx/ald/ampol-limited/news/2q-2022-lytton-refinery-performance-and-trading-update-2736295.html?ref=more_news

1 barrel = 159 liters

Even Ampol throughput volume is about 9 million barrels per qtr, very close to HY

Posted by probability > 2022-08-16 18:44 | Report Abuse

The above is in Australia, and the below is in Vietnam

https://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2022/07/binh-son-refinery-q2-net-profit-soars-to-424-mm

Vietnam's Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical recorded net profit of $424 MM in the second quarter, up by nearly six times from a year earlier, the company said on Tuesday.

Binh Son, which owns a 130,000-bpd refinery in central Vietnam

........


130,000 bpd refinery means, 11.7 million barrels per qtr.

refining margin:
= Profit / sales volume
= $424m/11.7m
= $ 36/brl

Posted by probability > 2022-08-16 18:47 | Report Abuse

However, margin above is not accurate as they have petrochemical & retails

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-17 02:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-17 02:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-08-17 06:06 | Report Abuse

Crack spread up! Oil down! Stockpig investor will dispose as they thought oil down is not favour to hy. They must be subscriber of stockpig to u.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-17 08:12 | Report Abuse

D1N1!
SINGAPORE MOGAS 92 UNLEADED (PLATTS) BRENT CRACK SPREAD FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)NYMEX
10.641
D
USD
+0.808
(+8.22%)

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-17 08:19 | Report Abuse

Q1 2021 compare to Q1 2022 and H1 2021 compare to H1 2022 average refining crack by Hng33

hng33 Q1 2022, the Average refining crack increased from
1. Gasoline cracks from USD 7.1/bbl to USD 17.8/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 5.8/bbl to USD 21.6/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.3/bbl to USD 16.2/bbl.

1H 2022 Average refining cracks increased from
1. Gasoline crack from USD 8.5/bbl to USD 26.4/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 6.4/bbl to USD 36.6/bbl,
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.9/bbl to USD 27.7/bbl.
16/08/2022 9:47 AM

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-17 08:31 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-17 08:34 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-17 08:44 | Report Abuse

What is fundamental?

Philip said Harta fundamental very strong but Harta drop non stop.
I can only say Harta drop because the earning drop and glove supply more than market demand.

I say Peteonm and HRC fundamental good because oil refining products supply cannot cope up with demand for some years to come. (Especially the bycott of Russia oil and and refining products come into effect next year)

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-17 08:53 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-17 09:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-17 09:17 | Report Abuse

No point talking to those cannot talk with rational mind (What is the most important point of fundamental is supply and demand imbalance) but resolve to emotional personal attack.

By the way thank you for talking down HRC and Petronm for me to collect.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-17 09:22 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by ty Y > 2022-08-17 09:44 | Report Abuse

Yes, we should no longer be influenced by such people in our investment philosophy. From now on, as long as otb and kyy come out to write scribbled reports, please don't believe it, especially if you see that the stock price has risen by more than 20% from the bottom. It's obviously asking us to buy at high prices what they bought at the bottom. I've been keeping an eye on it for a few years. I am not a master, but I am a careful observer. Whether you listen or not is your decision. Because the money is yours. If hengyuan can really benefit from the oil split, this quarterly earnings report will be very good。 good luck my dear shareholder in heng yuan. My last comments on heng yuan. Want to play badminton already :)

Posted by KooSan > 2022-08-17 09:48 | Report Abuse

Wah......good life can play badminton.....no need to work

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-17 09:51 | Report Abuse

Its a fundamental change in the whole supply n demand equilibrium of oil and refining products biz with post covid 2022 economy and travel opening result in fuel demand surge couple with many year of under funding for refinery capacity expansion + Ukraine war with impending Russia oil and refine products boycott.

Will high energy price cause demand destruction?
That a million dollar question. But I think moving forward crude oil will come down with refining margin hopefully stay at double digit figure.

Nothing personal just my thought.

hng33 Q1 2022, the Average refining crack increased from
1. Gasoline cracks from USD 7.1/bbl to USD 17.8/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 5.8/bbl to USD 21.6/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.3/bbl to USD 16.2/bbl.

1H 2022 Average refining cracks increased from
1. Gasoline crack from USD 8.5/bbl to USD 26.4/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 6.4/bbl to USD 36.6/bbl,
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.9/bbl to USD 27.7/bbl.

Posted by profit profits > 2022-08-17 09:53 | Report Abuse

all linds of kopitiam talks and all base on personal greed and selfishness. persons who had not bot the shares always hope price drop more and those who already onboard hope price would go north.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-17 09:54 | Report Abuse

Just wait for coming Q result, the windfall profit will change stock fundamental. In regard to sustainability, as long as gasoline crack spread sustain above USD4 + diessel crack spread above USD 7 + Jet crack spread above USD 10; Hengyuan will remain operation breakeven.

Anything above these level is pure profit for hengyuan

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-17 10:03 | Report Abuse

As of latest up-to-date crack spread level now, obly gasoline crack spread adjust more significantly from peak level, but still remain above USD 10 which is still command fat profit margin. The other two crack spread index remain at elevated level, at multiple year high upper range

1. Gasoline crack USD 10.641/bbl
2. diesel cracks USD 41.46/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks USD 32.30/bbl

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-17 10:15 | Report Abuse

We need an explosive Q2 nett profit to dispel some peoples notion of bad management, huge hedging loss, shifting profit to parent company etc
Finger crossed .

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2022-08-17 10:24 | Report Abuse

Betul. Tunggu keputusan Q2 dan baru buat keputusan yg rational

Posted by probability > 2022-08-17 10:49 | Report Abuse

www.listcorp.com/asx/ald/ampol-limited/news/4q-2021-lytton-refinery-performance-update-2657819.html

4Q 2021 Lytton Refiner Margin UpdateThe Lytton Refiner Margin (LRM)1 for 4Q 2021 was US$11.24 per barrel, significantly higher than the third quarter margin of US$6.76 per barrel. Singapore Weighted Average Margin (SWAM) rose above the 5-year historical average, reaching US$12.79 per barrel in 4Q 2021, as regional refining supply and demand fundamentals improved. This was significantly higher than the US$7.67 per barrel for 3Q 2021.

....

Note how they say 'weighted average' above and that its the highest in last 5 years even at US$12.79/brl in 4Q 2021


Posted by hng33 > Aug 17, 2022 10:03 AM | Report Abuse

As of latest up-to-date crack spread level now, obly gasoline crack spread adjust more significantly from peak level, but still remain above USD 10 which is still command fat profit margin. The other two crack spread index remain at elevated level, at multiple year high upper range

1. Gasoline crack USD 10.641/bbl
2. diesel cracks USD 41.46/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks USD 32.30/bb

Posted by probability > 2022-08-17 11:20 | Report Abuse

how to calculate weighted average refining margin:
................................................

Yield Basis: Gasoline 35%, Diesel 46%, Jet fuel 7%, the rest 12 % at crack of 10 USD/brl

Refining margin:

= (0.35 x 10.641 ) + (0.46 x 41.46) + (0.07 x 32.30) + (0.12 x 10.0)
= 3.72 + 19.07 + 2.26 + 1.2
= US $ 26 / brl


Posted by hng33 > Aug 17, 2022 10:03 AM | Report Abuse

As of latest up-to-date crack spread level now, obly gasoline crack spread adjust more significantly from peak level, but still remain above USD 10 which is still command fat profit margin. The other two crack spread index remain at elevated level, at multiple year high upper range

1. Gasoline crack USD 10.641/bbl
2. diesel cracks USD 41.46/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks USD 32.30/bb

Posted by kl_guy > 2022-08-17 11:28 | Report Abuse

10 more day till q-report out . bet HY is q-report eps is above rm1.00. buy in call warrant .HOOT9E

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-08-17 13:32 | Report Abuse

Stock market must always up up down down one. We have a princess looking forever love?
If Eps less than 0.50 , market reaction is sell
Eps 0.5-1. , buy
Eps below 0.30 panic sell
Eps above 1.0 panic buy , limit up?
Eps 3.00 in your dream got lah 19.50

Captain probability angry liao faster make corrections

Posted by paktua73 > 2022-08-17 13:42 | Report Abuse

afternoon..all oil upstream lovers..
let change to tech kingdom for better live..

oil upstream now in harass situation..
all downtrend storm soon will arrived..

let move to tech kingdom for more bright future..

paktua n red legions heavy on tech stock like:
1-coraza now below rm0.80
2-cnergen now below rm0.75
3-lgms now below rm0.95
4-sfptech now almost hit rm1.30(now already rm1.21)

all tech stock paktua set tp above rm1.30


paktua n red legion still strong in TSH(plantation)..
our aim only rm1.23-1.24..

paktua n red legion set our dream tech greenIsland is rm1.30..
we know to get there.. is not impossible..just need strong determination..
brave to stand facing it all
and rm1.30 green Island is the reward...





tut tut
we set our goal is rm1.30..
we will continue sail and face it all..
until we reach on our dream greenIsland rm1.30..

Posted by kl_guy > 2022-08-17 15:39 | Report Abuse

https://www.petron.com/news/petron-doubles-consolidated-net-income-in-h1-2022/
Petron Philippine make nice quarterly report , look like petronM and Hengyuan will be good too.

Posted by kl_guy > 2022-08-17 15:39 | Report Abuse

https://www.petron.com/news/petron-doubles-consolidated-net-income-in-h1-2022/
Petron Philippine make nice quarterly report , look like petronM and Hengyuan will be good too.

Posted by NoviceJ > 2022-08-17 15:56 | Report Abuse

Thank you probability and may the force be with the longist
The writings are on the wall and flying everywhere

Cheers !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by investor77 > 2022-08-17 16:12 | Report Abuse

Petron reported strong refining margin and increase in sales of its products. So like Binh Son in Vietnam and elsewhere, PetronM, and Heng Yuan should do well in the coming 6 or 7 work days results. Petron strong in retail sales and HengYuan from its 10.5 mil production, through its refining process, which has a high crack spread, resulting in huge profits.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-17 16:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-17 17:05 | Report Abuse

I will say Q2 result EPS should be above 1.0.

Posted by kebling98 > Aug 17, 2022 1:32 PM | Report Abuse
Stock market must always up up down down one. We have a princess looking forever love?
If Eps less than 0.50 , market reaction is sell
Eps 0.5-1. , buy
Eps below 0.30 panic sell
Eps above 1.0 panic buy , limit up?
Eps 3.00 in your dream got lah 19.50

Captain probability angry liao faster make corrections

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-17 17:29 | Report Abuse

What just happened?? shoot to 4.11 and back to 4.04????? Someone wrongly pressed or what???

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-17 18:09 | Report Abuse

Petron corp Q2 result already out.
Q2 Net income after tax attributable to:
Equity holders of parent company Peso 3,513 million
Non controlling interest Peso 595 million

H1 Net income after tax attributable to:
Equity holders of parent company Peso 6,761 million
Non controlling interest Peso 945 million

Note: Petron Corp hold 73.4 % Petronm.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-17 18:09 | Report Abuse

Indian gov control retail petrol price without give subsidy compensation. Unlike indian, Malaysia gov give full subsidy

Posted by probability > 2022-08-17 18:28 | Report Abuse

@sslee, last time when Petron Corp delivered 5.6 billion peso in Q1 2017, the split to PetronM was as per the following summary:

Refer the first part of the table only.

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/Insight1/2017-08-14-story129916-What_Petron_Corp_results_means_for_PETRONM_Q2_21_cents.jsp

If refinery margins are high, will that mean PetronM profit will be lesser? Not sure how to conclude for PetronM

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-17 20:18 | Report Abuse

December 31, 2021
NVRC: PMRMB
Non-controlling Interests Percentage 14.45%: 26.60%

NVRC did not contribute much to Petron crop profit.

Q2 Net income after tax attributable to:
Equity holders of parent company Peso 3,513 million
Non controlling interest Peso 595 million

If the non-controlling interest is fully from Petron Malaysia then Petronm net profit after tax is Peso 595/0.266 million = Peso 2,237 million

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-17 20:44 | Report Abuse

From Petron Corp Dec 31, 2021 financial report

Net income after tax attributable to Non-controlling Interests:
NVRC Peso 12 million
PMRMB peso 755 million

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-17 22:00 | Report Abuse

You can check previous Petron Corp Q1 result, the non-control interest profit is Peso 350m. The non-control interest profit refer to 26.6% non-control interest in Petron Malaysia. Therefore in total full Petron Malaysia profit should be
100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 350m = Peso 1316m
Peso 1316m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 105.3m (about match to PetronM Q1 net profit RM 106.3m)

Therefore, the latest Petron corp Q2 show non control interest profit is Peso 595m. Use the same formula above to calculate Petron Malaysia upcoming Q2 result

100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 595m = Peso 2237m
Peso 2237m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 178.9 (estimate PetronM upcoming EPS = 66sen)

Posted by Eldon > 2022-08-17 22:22 | Report Abuse

Hng33..I like your calculation..haha

Posted by KooSan > 2022-08-17 22:37 | Report Abuse

Mcm betul saja...sure or not your calculation correct?

Posted by hng33 > 36 minutes ago | Report Abuse

You can check previous Petron Corp Q1 result, the non-control interest profit is Peso 350m. The non-control interest profit refer to 26.6% non-control interest in Petron Malaysia. Therefore in total full Petron Malaysia profit should be
100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 350m = Peso 1316m
Peso 1316m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 105.3m (about match to PetronM Q1 net profit RM 106.3m)

Therefore, the latest Petron corp Q2 show non control interest profit is Peso 595m. Use the same formula above to calculate Petron Malaysia upcoming Q2 result

100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 595m = Peso 2237m
Peso 2237m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 178.9 (estimate PetronM upcoming EPS = 66sen)