Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 18:06 | Report Abuse

Walao Suiyee Accountant no more promote your Idol Stockgod buffolo ctrs kah. Global meltdown you idol lagi cham leh. Loss 43bil last qtr. Then next qtr mau loss how much as you so sure meltdown lah. You didnt warn Buffolo to cash out from equities kah. Talk kok lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 18:08 | Report Abuse

Walao again TP 10 sen 3 sen and banklap become a norm in any ctr you kutuk leh. You very suey lah if it really happen leh. Haiyoh. Correct?


i3lurker

HRC could end up with a RM 3 Billion derivative loss based on my understanding of oil market today.

=> RM0.10 per share

thats why Syndicates desperately dumping HRC shares just like TG
thats why Dragon is here for the blood sucking

1 minute ago

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 18:08 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 18:10 | Report Abuse

Mana ada so bad lagi leh. Belum pecah rm4.20 lagi mah. That was the bulk of kakijudi beli b4 the run up to rm6.00. See can pecah or not baru cakap pour lah. Now still raining lagi lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

qqq3333

Unfortunately when things turn south it never rains, it pours

35 seconds ago

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 18:11 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 18:12 | Report Abuse

HY banklap also ular punya fault kah. Wei. You apa sai also cakap ular fault kah. Very convenient to finger pointing Ular leh. Then you jadi suiyee kena insuran company conned beribu ribu monthly for so long also ular fault kah. Haiyoh. Correcf?


i3lurker

HRC will borrow the RM5 Billion loan [Medium Term Notes] to cover the RM3 Billion hole from derivative loss

balance RM2 Billion will likely just last another year or maybe 2 years at best.

why do Suiyee Sucker Bilis love to buy banklap losers?
ask Dragon

1 minute ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 18:14 | Report Abuse

If Q3 takda vomit leh. Then you telan balik your word kah. Dont overly say so leh. Keep some reservation in case you also wrong leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

qqq3333

Jeri SS,. Q2 is tulip crack time, after the party is vomit time ie Q3 is vomit time

5 minutes ago

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 18:15 |

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Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 18:20 |

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Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 18:24 | Report Abuse

Bob

many aware
but also not aware that the unrealized loss is at Balance Sheet Date 30/06/2022

=> it does not register in mind that the 30/06/2022 unrealized loss can triple to above RM 3 Billion later ... later

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-02 18:26 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 18:27 | Report Abuse

i3lurker, not meant to spoil your party but I'm actually hungry for more.....wink!

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 18:28 | Report Abuse

Did I lure anyone to judi at here. ular pun takda judi mah. Why keep cakap ular luring anyone to judi at here. You buta kah. Ular keep cakap look out at the share price dont talk facts and figures now leh. Like this cakap you so clever can interpret it as Ular luring suiyee to judi kah. Wei. Ular not that bad leh. Nanti TiGong punish ulae kalah judi leh. Haiyoh. Correct?


i3lurker

Dragon

Wei !!!
HOI !!!

your sifu already told you HRC got huge derivative loss correct?
so Dragon refused to buy HRC correct?
and instead lured Suiyee Sucker Bilis to buy HRC correct?

now you say I say RM0.10 ??
I just give you possible RM3 Billion future loss, a quantifyable figure

HOI !!

its beyond my control correct?

4 minutes ago

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 18:29 | Report Abuse

Commodities Futures Gambling loss can increase or widen by many multiples of above 1 until contracts are closed

thats why HRC decided to borrow RM5 Billion

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 18:29 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-02 18:30 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 18:31 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 18:32 | Report Abuse

Ular so horsim leh. Cakap ular luring suiyee to judi kah. Even sifu pun ada advice kenot judi liao even b4 QR leh. You takda baca kah. Even even ada left the sifu msg at bungaraya there leh. Suiyee Accountant you takda baca kah. Really beh tahan cakap Ular luring suiyee to judi kah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 18:33 | Report Abuse

sure
no worries
I will propose to Gobermen to take over HRC for RM500 Billion
or alternatively
HRC can takeover Petronas for RM1.00 deemed paid plus RM500 Billion compensation for agreeing to manage Petronas.
Thats how things work in Bolehland

wink wink


Posted by BobAxelrod > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse

i3lurker, not meant to spoil your party but I'm actually hungry for more.....wink!

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-02 18:33 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 18:34 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-02 18:36 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 18:38 | Report Abuse

Even until today Sifu pun ada left a msg in Taligam even he is travelling leh. Ular punya sifu pun takda kutuk HY only cakap result out already then wait next Qtr see apa macam. He will give his taught again when he ada more info about HY leh. Mau tau ini semua pun ada black n white leh. Sifu is an oil man lah. Not anyhow give opinion like many at here lah. Tong pun half full only cakap macam eggspurts lagi. Especially the few hardcore penkritiks leh. Limit up cakap bungaraya with explosive QR leh. Sifu pun takda cakap until like that leh. Lagi kutuk sifu so much lagi leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by cactus81 > 2022-09-02 18:38 | Report Abuse

Crack spread 30 suffer hedging loss. Now crack spread 1++ still suffer hedging loss? Seem like hedging only can make company loss.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 18:41 |

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Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 18:44 | Report Abuse

derivative losses
increase by USD rate 4.5 to 5.5
increase by swap rate USD interest rate increase
increase by crude oil price increase

I would say comparing with Dragon punya balls [park] size RM3 Billion final realized loss is quite likely

Posted by cactus81 > 2022-09-02 18:44 | Report Abuse

Cool down during the weekend and read back the comments. Too many emotional comments here.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 18:44 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 18:48 | Report Abuse

Ular admit Ular OKU dunno all those derivative leh. Ular pun malas want to know also leh. Too many things to learn also not useful one. Learn for what Ular pun dunno leh. You better teach ular how to judi and make ular judi win more than lose lagi bagus lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


i3lurker

derivative losses
increase by USD rate 4.5 to 5.5
increase by swap rate USD interest rate increase
increase by crude oil price increase

I would say comparing with Dragon punya balls [park] size RM3 Billion final realized loss is quite likely

2 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 18:51 | Report Abuse

Corect lah. Baca and sendiri decide siapa cakap one more useful. Facts and figures or saham price movement more important. Haiyoh. Correct?

cactus81

Cool down during the weekend and read back the comments. Too many emotional comments here.

4 minutes ago

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 18:54 |

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Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-09-02 18:57 | Report Abuse

Ular, who is this sifu of yours? Sting? My suggestion : Find more “sifus”…

Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 18:57 | Report Abuse

HY Complex refinery margin update - 1/09/22 (with gasoline at almost zero crack)

.................


Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 46.5/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 36.0/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (0.79 + 3.71) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 4.50/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 46.5 ) + (0.07 x 36.0) + (0.35 x 4.5)+ (0.12 x 4.5)
= 21.39 + 2.52 + 1.57 + 0.54
= US $ 26.02 / brl
.................

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $26.0/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.238 Billion MYR
...................

If there is still derivative loss for Diesel above, we can expect derivative gain for Gasoline. It would be certainly fair to assume that it can only be gain (as HY hedged at USD 12/brl for gasoline) and at the minimum it would be fair to assume zero hedging loss/gain.

Using worst scenario,

the PBT would be:
= 1.138 Billion MYR

PAT would be: = 853 Million MYR, EPS = 2.84 for Q3
..................


accounting cash flow hedge loss of Q2 at 244 million

the PBT would be:
= 894 Billion MYR

PAT would be: = 670 Million MYR, EPS = 2.23 for Q3 ( still exceeding Q2)
...................

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 19:02 |

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Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 19:02 | Report Abuse

Remember however that the above is assuming ZERO crack of gasoline for July & Aug which had passed, with only another month left for Q3 results to be secured. So it can't be far out from above.

It would be reflective of Q4 you can say at current margin.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 19:03 |

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Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 19:04 | Report Abuse

The 244 million losses from Cash flow hedge in Q2 is expected to be recognized somehow as per Rabbit2, as such i am recognizing it in Q3 to reflect worst scenario.

Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 2, 2022 7:02 PM | Report Abuse

Really blow my mind...on one hand you're saying the hedging would have assumed zero losses.
On the other you are have input of millions in hedging cash losses???

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 19:05 |

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Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 19:11 | Report Abuse

yes, we assume almost zero only for gasoline . check the details of derivation above

Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 2, 2022 7:05 PM | Report Abuse

ZERO crack?,....isn't the crack spread where Refineries derived their margins from???

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 19:12 |

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Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 19:13 | Report Abuse

@Bob, FYI below on how crack from futures affect refinery margin:

www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/introduction-to-crack-spreads.html

In January, Refiner sells the 1:1 Gasoline Crack Spread Futures contract at $17.20:

Sells 1 May RBOB gasoline futures contract at $1.60 per gallon ($67.20 per barrel) Buys 1 April CL futures contract at $50.00 per barrel
Locks in the crack spread at $17.20 per barrel

In the Cash Market in March, Refiner sells the Gasoline Crack Spread at $13.50:

Sells 1000 barrels of physical gasoline at $1.75 per gallon ($73.50 per barrel) Buys 1000 barrels of physical crude oil at $60.00 per barrel
Receives a positive cracking margin of $13.50 per barrel

In March, Refiner buys back (liquidates) the 1:1 Gasoline Crack Spread Futures contract at $13.50 per barrel:

Buys 1 May RBOB gasoline futures contract at $1.75 per gallon ($73.50 per barrel) Sells 1 April CL futures contract at $60.00 per barrel
Futures gain of $3.70 per barrel (which can be applied to the cash market cracking margin)

Profit/Loss calculation:

Hedged crack spread = $17.20 per barrel
Un-hedged cash market cracking margin = $13.50

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-02 19:18 | Report Abuse

Omg q3 eps = 2.23 + q2 eps = 2++ wow.. pe 15 = ?? wow..mind is blown .. cannot imagine

Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 19:21 | Report Abuse

good candidate for privatization, with NTA hitting above 10 by Q3, even if they takeover - MTO offer price will be high if they do that!

Posted by tehka > Sep 2, 2022 7:18 PM | Report Abuse

Omg q3 eps = 2.23 + q2 eps = 2++ wow.. pe 15 = ?? wow..mind is blown .. cannot imagine

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-02 19:31 | Report Abuse

Dear BobAxelrod

If you use only Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.58
Equation:
V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
V x (31.58 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (31.58 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
7,166,923,100= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 7,166,923,100/565,873,133
A= 12.665
V=226,945,000/12.665
V= 17,918,718

What I trying to say in above example are:
Volume of outstanding refining margin swap contract is 17,918,718 barrels
Average outstanding refining margin hedged is USD 12.665 per barrel
And the spot refining mogas92 margin on 30/6/2022 is USD 31.58 per barrel

Hence your outstanging 17,918,718 at your average refining hedged at USD 12.665 per barrel will recorded a mark to market (as on 30/6/2022 is USD 31.58 per barrel) fair value loss/unrealised loss of 17,918,718 x (31.58- 12.665) = USD 1,490,267,000/4.398.

If you assume at the end of Q3, 6 million barrels mature and average realised refining margin in Q3 is USD 16 per barrel and at 30/9/2022 the spot Mogas92 refining margin is USD 10

Thus your loss on this 6 million barrels mature refining margin swap contracts USD 6 million x (20 - 12.765)
But your physical gross profit is USD 6 million X 16.
Hence your net gross profit is USD 6 million X [ 16 + (12.765 - 16) ] = USD 6 million X 12.765.
The acceptable margin per barrel when HRC make this refining margin swap at USD 12.765.

And your balance refining margin swap (17,918,718 - 6,000,000) barrel mark to market (as on 30/9/2022 spot Mogas92 refining margin USD 10 per barrel) fair value gain is USD 11,918,718 x (12.765 -10).
Note once the spot refining margin drop below your hedge refining margin of USD 12.765 your outstanding refining margin swap contracts will have mark to market fair value gain

As 6 million mature on Q3 HRC might have enter another X million barrel refining margin swap at USD Y per barrel acceptable to HRC

Hope above will help.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 19:32 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 19:35 |

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Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-02 19:50 | Report Abuse

Sorry typo error:
Correction below: highligh in USD 6 million x[ (16 - 12.765)] instead of USD 6 million x (20 - 12.765)
But your physical gross profit is USD 6 million X 16.
If you assume at the end of Q3, 6 million barrels mature and average realised refining margin in Q3 is USD 16 per barrel and at 30/9/2022 the spot Mogas92 refining margin is USD 10

Thus your loss on this 6 million barrels mature refining margin swap contracts USD 6 million x[ (16 - 12.765)]
But your physical gross profit is USD 6 million X 16.
Hence your net gross profit is USD 6 million X [ 16 + (12.765 - 16) ] = USD 6 million X 12.765.
The acceptable margin per barrel when HRC make this refining margin swap at USD 12.765.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-02 20:00 | Report Abuse

No worries, got it...thanks again.

Posted by JerichomyMatiMakBapa > 2022-09-02 20:08 | Report Abuse

Itu Jerichomy bapa dan Emak sudah mati.Kena langgar kereta itu sifoo cakap.Saya bangkala mahbur rahman mahu makan PU KI isteri Jerichomy.Panggil mem Jerichomy hisap lan chio bangkala.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-02 20:11 | Report Abuse

Ular predict tomolo gap up and terus pecah rm5.00. Boleh?